Book Review-Steve Fierro's Book

[socalsportsbook]

Book Review.

Steve Fierro's "The Four Quarters of Horse Investing"

I purchased this book on Friday and finished it on Saturday and it's a GREAT Book! Well worth the $35 price tage. One of the really great features of the book is Steve is not giving us another theory on how to select winners. Not one page devoted to winner or contender selection. Also, not one page of ancient PP's to fill the book or justify his theory. The book is in bound paperback about 8 1/2 by 11 and contains 150 pages of insight.

Two things I need to say:
1.) Steve is a friend of mine and I've heard his ideas in the seminar he mentions in his book. I bought the book because he's a friend. What could I learn? I've heard it all before. Well, I learned a LOT!

2.) I have been playing the horses for longer than I care to mention. I'm an old jaded vetern of the handicapping wars. I have been playing "for a living" (I will not say professionally. Read the book and you'll understand why) for the past twelve-years. What could this book teach me? I know all there is too know. WRONG! I learned a lot.

Steve approaches the horse racing market like a business. He shows you how to run YOUR business. Again, he is not telling you how to pick winners. We should all be pretty good at picking winners so he shows us how to make money with the winners we select.

His appraoch is step-by-step so it's easy to follow and implement. I also know that Steve "practices what he preaches" because I know the man. No BS, he does what he writes in the book.

Without giving away the ending, Steve covers; Contender Selection, Attaching Value (YOUR Betting Line), Performance at the track or OTB and Record Keeping. He also has some eye-opening opinions on ROI, Becoming a Pro and playing the short fields in California. Real examples and real samples without 50-pages of PP's.

The reason I mentioned the "grizzled vetern" stuff above is because no matter how long you've playing, no matter how much you know, you will be energized by this book. I know I was.

By the way, I am "shilling" for the book but I have no interest in the sales of the book. I don't sell it and I don't make a dime from it. I like Steve and I love his book and I believe we all can benefit from his work.

[Bob Harris]

I haven't seen the final product yet but I did get a chance to read the manuscript...everyone who's read it, including Mark Cramer and Tom Brohamer, has had positive things to say about it.

Since it doesn't deal with handicapping but rather what to do once the handicapping is over, those players who are excellent at isolating the contention in a race but can't quite seem to earn steady profits will really flourish if they implement Steve's concepts.

[JAH]

Where is Steve's book available?

[Bob Harris]

Originally posted by JAH
Where is Steve's book available?

www.todaysracingdigest.com

www.netcapper.com

[socalsportsbook]

Steve's Book is available from:

http://www.todaysracingdigest.com

http://www.netcapper.com

There may be other places but those are two I know of.

[R_Lochner]

Go to http://www.todaysracingdigest.com/FIERRO/trd4qtrad.htm for more information on Steve's book. It's ready for immediate shipment and arrives via priority mail in a day or two after order.

[Dick Schmidt]

Socal,

Thank you very much for recominding this book. I got it a couple of days ago and have just started digesting it. So far, I disagree with most of what the book presents, which makes it that much more valuable to me. Books that merely reinforce your prejudices don't teach you much. I'm going up to Reno to see Dave Schwartz in a week or so, and I'll try to see if I can get together with Steve.

Thanks again,

Dick

[kitts]

I'll chime in here. I've just started the book and plan to finish it tonight. So far, I really like it. The man really has nothing to sell and that is refershing. So far, it is a great book. I just finsihed two other "well known" books by a "well known" author who had plenty else to sell and the books were really not worthwhile to any one with a year or more in this biz.

[GR1@HTR]

You guys read too fast. Takes me over a month to get through a book...A little quicker if it has pictures...

[anotherdave]

I just finished reading the book. I quite enjoyed it. The procedures he sets out are quite reasonable, although I wouldn't agree with all of them. I will incorporate some of the things Steve says into my handicapping procedure. I particularly liked how he showed data for a whole year on how he does at different classes and tracks and how he "filters" his wagers. He makes an interesting statement about races where he has 3 overlays among his contenders - how this is a bad bet for him. I've had the same experience from my records. When I have 1 or 2 overlays great! - but 3 - I must have missed something.

AD

[Dick Schmidt]

Kitts,

Don't be shy, we're all friends here. Name names, point fingers, tell us what you think! If you read a book that you think is bad, or just not on a high level, let us know. Might save some money and more important, some time.

Dick

P.S. Glad to hear you are going to make it to Reno. Look forward to seeing you again.

[Tom]

Originally posted by GR1
You guys read too fast. Takes me over a month to get through a book...A little quicker if it has pictures...

They have them withOUT pictures?????
The ones you have to color i take me the longest to get through.
~G!~

[Kentucky Bred]

Hi All:

I bought Steve's book and have finished it. I believe it was a very sincere effort but the central focus (after the section on creating a horse racing "mission statement"...oh brother) was creating the Contender Odds Line which is the core of his strategy.

The problem? Not one piece of info on how he creates the contenders, how to decide whether 3 or 4 contenders should be used, how to spot a horse you make a 3/2 favorite (which is important) or anything about what he looks for in a contender. For that matter, there isn't anything on what is an overlay. I suppose it is when the final odds are at least one level above the odds line. It is touted as a book free from all those DRF PP's. Well, it is true..not one. He says, "you already know how to pick winners, right?" Well, maybe not enough and maybe not frequent enough and maybe not at a high enough price.

The stuff on templates and money management was pretty cool, but as I realized that the core of his philosopy is creating a contender line and there is nothing on what he looks for in a contender--I became annoyed because there is no way to duplicate what he does (he includes two years worth of records on his method positive expectancy).

Let me give you an example. If I see a horse that I make as a 2-1 contender #1 and I know it is a 5-1 ML, I am insuring that I will be betting that horse. There will be no debate about my final selection in 95% of the cases. What is the difference between that and looking up at the board at a 5-1 shot and feeling that it should be 2-1? Don't we all try to find values in our selection in our own way?

Then when I learned that Steve does sell his selections on the www.todaysracingdigest.com site, I began to wonder. I hate to sound sarcastic, but it would be better to teach your method of finding and ranking contenders with a brief discussion on money management and worksheets than to make a person like me wonder if this isn't just an ingenious way to force people who are converts to his method to buy his contender selections.

I would like to hear from others if I am missing something. I do not want to sound overly critical, but these are justified reasons.

For those of you who wish to view his past selections from 4 tracks per day, you can get them at the above site. I don't think he has been doing too well lately.

Kentucky Bred

[kitts]

I will respond to Dick Schmidt's challenge as I am still reading Fierro's book and cannot add much to that topic. I still like his book and even though he does have something to sell, he does not push it.

Which brings me to the two books that had much to sell, and were not helpful to me at all. The old adage "if you can get one nugget out of a book, then it is worthwhile" is of interest here. There may be nuggets for others but none for me. The two books are both by Dave Powers and they are "Power Handicapping" and "Guerilla Handicappping" and both were a disappointment to me but maybe of value to others. I have a degree of respect for Mr. Powers as I have dealt with him in the past and he was pretty much straight foreward with me. These books have been available for a long time, and, at the very least, need a fair amount of updating.

[Aussieplayer]

Kentucky Bred wrote:

"I hate to sound sarcastic, but it would be better to teach your method of finding and ranking contenders with a brief discussion on money management and worksheets"

....No! No! No! This is my point in another thread on the general board!! There already IS enough on contender selection/winner picking out there. We NEED stuff on the money side.

I believe Steve did this deliberately.

After all, no one here has yet to tell me their method of turning the handicapping process into an odds line, if in fact anyone here does that. If they don't do that, I'd like to hear what they do.

Cheers
AP

PS. Every method is going to have bad spots

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by Aussieplayer
[After all, no one here has yet to tell me their method of turning the handicapping process into an odds line, if in fact anyone here does that. If they don't do that, I'd like to hear what they do.

[/B]


I couldn't really tell you how I set my odds line. I set it by feel and experience. I also look at the odds line from HTRF to give me something to compare mine to and make some (usually) minor adjustments. I have tried multiple regression techniques and such, converting speed, pace, and class, etc., but I never felt as comfortable using that sort of generated line than with the one I come up with myself. And my personal line has had better returns when I compared the results over 2 seasons.

And I agree with you AP, I don't need any more books on finding contenders. I think I do pretty well with that from my research. That is why I found the book very intriguing.

AD

[Bob Harris]

Originally posted by Aussieplayer
Kentucky Bred wrote:

"I hate to sound sarcastic, but it would be better to teach your method of finding and ranking contenders with a brief discussion on money management and worksheets"

....No! No! No! This is my point in another thread on the general board!! There already IS enough on contender selection/winner picking out there. We NEED stuff on the money side.

I believe Steve did this deliberately.

After all, no one here has yet to tell me their method of turning the handicapping process into an odds line, if in fact anyone here does that. If they don't do that, I'd like to hear what they do.

Cheers
AP

PS. Every method is going to have bad spots


You are correct, AP. Steve firmly believes that everything needed to pick the contention in a race has already been written. He uses techniques from Mitchell, Quinn, Meadow, Helm, etc. He constructs his betting line using primarily pace, breeding, and trainer specialities. Class issues, medication and equipment changes are also factored in when appropriate...in other words, he does pretty much what we all do to select the contention in a race.

It is the next step, the "Which one do I bet ?" phase, where handicappers tend to struggle. While other books have discussed making oddslines, many players found the task too cumbersome. The templates shown in the book were developed by him for his own personal use...everyone he's shared them with have agreed that they are the most user friendly way to make a betting line that they've seen.

If any reader of his book wants to know what he looks for in certain races, e-mail him for his home phone number (steve@racedayusa.com)...he loves to talk with other players and is more than happy to discuss contender selection...it just wasn't going to be the focus of his book.

Bob

[Kentucky Bred]

Well perhaps I misjudged the intent of the book. It is true that the templates are creative and easy to use, but when I finished the book I asked myself, "what do I do now?". Usually, there is a step by step approach to get started with something.

Steve Fierro concludes the book by listing his month by month and yearly profit figures which appear to be sincere and honest (no crazy hype stuff), but could I duplicate his exact results? Only if I could duplicate his contenter line.

For example, let me exaggerate to make a point. If I choose a bunch of 20-1 shots to list contenter 1-4, no matter which templates I use, my results will come out much differently...right?

In the same way if I make a horse 2-1 and the top contender when it is a ML of 6-1, I am insuring my bet in that race. This is no different from me handicapping in the morning and going to the track excited because I have a couple of great 6-1 shots that I'm looking to play if the price stays up.

The most I can say is for those of you who have crafted a way to create an odds line that you are comfortable with and has shown success, this book will definitely improve your approach. I have seen many attempts at this, especially with computer generated software, but have never felt comfortable with the results. I look forward to learning from many of you who have posted your comfortability with your odds line.

Kentucky Bred

[steve fierro]

To all that post on the pace advantage board. I was introduced to this board about nine months ago. I have thouroughly enjoyed it and go to it daily. I must admit I am ignorant to who pace advantage is but congratulations on a board that contains very little of what you see on the "normal" newsgroup boards. I have seen many topics that I was chomping at the bit to jump in on. To this point I was reluctant to post because I knew the book was close to release. I did not want to make it appear that any replies were an attempt to market the book on this site. Now that it is out and a topic on the board I feel comfortable "joining in". I know many of you on the board. Dick we met a few years ago. Dave Schwartz introduced us. I look forward to seeing you in Reno. Kentucky Bred what Bob Harris posted is true. I invite and look forward to direct correspondence. One of the things I enjoy most about racing is meeting new players steve@racedayusa.com. I believe if we chat I can clear up a few things regarding some of your questions about the book. Thanks to all for enjoying the book. It makes two and a half years worth of work not seem so tough. Steve Fierro :)

[Kentucky Bred]

Steve:

That is very gracious of you. I will compose an email to you soon about my questions. As I said, I did think it was a good read and certainly worth the price. I couldn't imagine the amount of effort it takes to complete a project like this. Speak soon.

Kentucky Bred

[so.cal.fan]

I read Steve's line on So. Cal. races everyday in Today's Racing Digest. His handicapping is good.

[kitts]

I finshed Steve's book and enjoyed it. I can pick contenders OK but I will have to experiment with his methods of ordering them. I already use the BKT sofwtare so the learning curve will be lessened. I like it all but, as yet, do not know what to do about it. Maybe I should send Steve an email.

[andicap]

I may order it as well out of curiousity. I too can pick contenders just fine often at a price and believe I can use them well, but I always like to see someone else's informed opinion.

[so.cal.fan]

Steve's book got a good plug today from Dave Litfin in the DRF.

[rrbauer]

From GR1:
You guys read too fast. Takes me over a month to get through a book...A little quicker if it has pictures...

Comment: I'm just the opposite. I never seem to get through the ones with pictures. Probably because I keep going back to the centerfold!
:)

[so.cal.fan]

I haven't had time to read the book, Richard.
I do know that Steve's line in Todays Racing Digest is good.
I know a man who has been following it everyday, he makes his selections on the best looking S.F. line horse in the paddock, provided it is not the favorite. He is well ahead so far this year.
I know this isn't the purpose of the line, but, hey, it works!

[Bob Harris]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Steve's book got a good plug today from Dave Litfin in the DRF.

Steve e-mailed me about the Liftin article but I haven't been able to pick it up on their site. If anyone has the review and can scan it, I'd be very grateful if you could e-mail it to me (or post it if that's easier).

Thanks!

Bob ( rbtmharris@hotmail.com )

[Tom]

Originally posted by Bob Harris


Steve e-mailed me about the Liftin article but I haven't been able to pick it up on their site. If anyone has the review and can scan it, I'd be very grateful if you could e-mail it to me (or post it if that's easier).

Thanks!

Bob ( rbtmharris@hotmail.com )

A copy is on its way.

[Bob Harris]

Just got it, Tom! Thanks a bunch for taking the time!

Bob

[andicap]

Originally posted by Tom


A copy is on its way.

I'll take one too Tom thanks although I do distrust all of these reviews. These guys often just give each other good reviews -- it's called "logrolling." I'll scratch your back you scratch mine.

Not that I'm accusing Steve of anything -- just that's how it goes.

[anotherdave]

Here's a link for the review.


http://www.drf.com/members/web_news.generate_article_html?p_news_head=36781&p_arc=1

AD

[Dick Schmidt]

AD,

No, it's not That link goes to the Form, but it is an article on the Derby.

Dick

[Bob Harris]

Originally posted by Dick Schmidt
AD,

No, it's not That link goes to the Form, but it is an article on the Derby.

Dick

Dick,

It's an article about the Derby but there is a mini-review regarding the book embedded in it. Maybe he'll do a more in-depth review when he finishes reading it.

Bob

[Aussieplayer]

Well, I've just read it, and consider it to be a HUGE eye opener. I loved every single minute of reading it. It's been a while that I enjoyed a book that much.

I will also say: it made me think very hard about where I'm at as a player - and has "reminded" me to do some things I'd been putting off. Personal stuff - but then that's what this book is.
It does have a tinge of Cramer & others in it - but it is also a truly original work.

Now, if an "aussieplayer" could find it useful, so should you!!

I know this is redboarding, but just doing some "handicapping my way" (nothing fancy - just a mess of what I've learned), along with the odds templates, spending less than an average 10 minutes per race on the Sydney card (7 races) on Saturday I had: (using no filters as that would be silly until future analysis & using the $2000 model)

19 bets in 7 races (average 2.7 per race).
4 races a loss was made (average loss $32)
3 losses a profit was made (average profit $178.60 skewed by a 27/1 horse)

Win bet chart:
Out $261
In $668.80
Profit $407.80 or 156%

1% of bank did better today:
Out $380
In $938
Profit $580

3 winners paid:
6.5-1
27.4 - 1
10 - 1

Now, what part of any of this do I credit to the book (after all, it was my handicapping)? Because of the book, I'd decided to "go back to basics" in contender selection, bet overlays until aquiring enough records to look at filters, and the odds line was no problemo - quick was the name of the game.

I'll see how I go. I hope this was of use to someone.

Cheers
AP

[andicap]

Aussieplayer,
Can you bet on American races through the Internet? You can pull down BRIS PPs -- couldn't you play our racetracks through off-shore places? Do you?

Just curious

[rrbauer]

Anyone wanting to sell their copy please email me at:

rrbauer@directvinternet.com

(I'm not trying to corner the market...just trying to save a couple bucks in case someone wants to offload their copy!)

[Derek2U]

I haven't read Fierros book, but I know Gordon Pine's web page
is selling it and so I assume it's not blah-blah at the very
least. But, like I just happened to post to another thread, I
truly do NOT think that the concept of Value makes sense. No
matter how you look at it, it's not an objective concept easily
measured; one capper's Value is another capper's NightMare.

hehe .... As a concept, Value reflects the User's system rather
than the toteboard. And, thus, any capper must KNOW, with
some certainty, what HIS winning statistics are: % Winners; ROI, WhatEver. Most users don't keep good records for, lets say, 500 races bet . You just got to face your true stats.

In my case, I bet a Horse to WIN or I use that Horse ON TOP, as
a Key Horse should be treated; I NEVER (hardly ever) BOX my
horse Bcause Boxing represents indecision/fear/uncertainty and
those emotions rarely lead to winning. And so, I feel that Value
to me means how I should bet my Key horse: Onthe Win End Only
or on Top, in Exactas, or DDs.

hey.. I bet a horse yesterday that was so good it took 6 horses
to beat her.

[Show Me the Wire]

Derek2u:

The only time I box is when I should have played it cold and when I play it cold I should have boxed.

Faced with that dilema I deceided to bet win, place, daily doubles, pick 3s, pick 4s, pick 6s, etc.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

[Derek2U]

SMTW... has your strategy worked?

Tell me plz.

[Show Me the Wire]

Derek2U:

It does for me becuase my handicapping of myself showed I am better at picking the winner. What I try to do is find one or two horses I feel can win in two out of the three legs and go from there even if it means hitting the all button in one or two races depending on what multi race exotic I am playing.

I have the feeling you probably do the same.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

[anotherdave]

What I have found about this book is that it has helped organize my handicapping. Simple things which has helped me gain focus. Like doing the dirt sprints first and moving up classes, then dirt routes, turf sprints, turf routes, etc. Also I made up my own contender analysis sheets which really focus the results of my handicapping, especially when it has been a few hours since I last looked at the card. Making my own odds line also helps in this regard. I put down the odds and then a quick comment on why I think the horse deserves those odds. I don't follow the odds line religiously, but it helps me remember what I liked and why. The book also suggests Barry Meadow's win betting charts, which I find unworkable in practice. There are things I disagree with in this book, but the positive things far outweigh the negatives for me. It really was a wake-up call for me and the results are starting to show.

AD

[GR1@HTR]

I was fortunate enough to be able to spend some time w/ Steve this weekend. First off let me tell you what a class and genuine guy he is. Although, I haven’t read his book he was kind enough to show me his lines and explain his wagering processes.

To me the most difficult thing to do in handicapping is to decide what to do when you have 2 horses you like in a race. The one you like best is 2-1 and has a great chance to win and there is another horse in the race with an outside chance at 8-1. Which one do you bet to win? Steve’s analysis w/ statistical reference gave me a quality idea as to how to answer this question. He was also kind enough to answer about a dozen or so other wagering questions I had. Also, in a sport with few original ideas put into recent publication, I think this will be quite refreshing. So needless to say I will be purchasing his book and trying to incorporate anything I can learn from it into my handicapping process. Thanks for the time Steve and best of luck.

[steve fierro]

Gr1,

One of the things I enjoy most about racing is spending time with individuals that are attacking the game in a structured businesslike fashion. I enjoyed our time together and look forward to visiting you when I make my road trip in September. I appreciate the kind words as well. My feeling is we are all in this together in a game that requires a high degree of passion to be successful. It also requires idea sharing with whoever whenever you can. This board is a great example of that. Thanks Again Steve Fierro.

[Bob Harris]

Originally posted by steve fierro
Gr1,

One of the things I enjoy most about racing is spending time with individuals that are attacking the game in a structured businesslike fashion. I enjoyed our time together and look forward to visiting you when I make my road trip in September. I appreciate the kind words as well. My feeling is we are all in this together in a game that requires a high degree of passion to be successful. It also requires idea sharing with whoever whenever you can. This board is a great example of that. Thanks Again Steve Fierro.

Buttercup!!

See that word "Apprentice" under your name?? Two posts since December 2001?? You'll *never* lose your bug at this rate!! You've got way too much to offer...start typing!!

Bob

[Dick Schmidt]

Steve Fierro:


I REALLY enjoyed your book. I've never made my own betting line, never saw the point, but since I read the book, I may take another long look. Like every pro, I have limits on what odds I'll accept, but I've never gone beyond that. If my top two give me the return I want (currently even money or better), then I bet them. Normally when my third or fourth contender wins, I lose the race. Like I said, I'm taking another look at this.

What really came shining through when I read the book was your professional attitude and work ethic. I took a lot of ideas away from the book. One of the reasons I play a lot of races (besides getting bored easily) is that until recently I didn't have a reliable way of grading races. Lightning could strike any time, so I wanted to be live in every race. I'm using some of the ideas you presented to modify some of my betting strategies. I hope I'll be able to play fewer races, or at least scale my bets, putting more money where I have the best chance.

Thanks for an excellent read.

Dick

[Derek2U]

Oh steve fierro ... i havent read your book yet but i probably
will just because (a) it's new and (b) several good players liked
it. As far as odds line making goes, phooey. But it's nice to
see you use the words "passion" and "business" in the same
paragraph. I work on wall street, in a "white glove firm," and
many guys my age there are both passionate & all business at
the same time. We really love business and hate cheats of all
kinds. The purpose of this long winded post is this question,
addressed to both you & this great room:
Do you think that bettors (ANY BETTORS) should be allowed to
dump there money DIRECTLY into the pools, via computer?
Is that akin to "insider trading?" Will that allow the cheats
out there to play games? hehe thanks

[steve fierro]

I'll answer three posts in one here.

1. Bob Harris I like being an apprentice it may be the only time I can get ten pounds off.

2. Dick Schmidt Your post made my day. Here's a couple of items. You mention an interesting fact. You're top two contenders is where your money comes from. I mention in the book that I will continue to evolve as a player. My 2002 evolution has pointed me in the same direction. The majority of my profit is from my top two contenders when overlayed on the betting line. I am readjusting my bankroll to reflect this consistent stat within my betting line process. The other item you posted on this board is critical. It doesn't matter what you do in this wonderful game to make your profit. Just work towards making a profit not picking winners. Thanks Steve

3. Derek, It doesn't bother me how people try to manipulate the pools as long as we have assurances that they are not "past posting" I make some analogies in the book that this late money phenomenon is a gold mine for the "value oriented" player. We have read that these computer players are dumping the money in, unless I have missed it, I haven't read any press that they are taking alot of money out. There have been many insiders that have lost their @#@$% as well. Hope this answers you're question. Gotta go first at Belmont is upon us. Steve Fierro

[cj]

Originally posted by steve fierro
...The majority of my profit is from my top two contenders when overlayed on the betting line. I am readjusting my bankroll to reflect this consistent stat within my betting line process... Steve Fierro

I have come to the same realization as well this year in my handicapping process. If I go beyond my top 2 choices, I'm better off not playing the race.

CJ

p.s. Steve, where is the best place to order your book?

[Dick Schmidt]

CJ,

You can order the book online from Gordon Pine at Netcapper. Gordon is a good guy and the price is the same. This way you can support a racing guy rather than Amazon. If you don't already get it, sign up for his free newsletter while you're there. It's not bad.

Dick


www.Netcapper.com

[cj]

Thanks Dick, will do. I've been to the site and like it, but never noticed a free newsletter, will do that as well.

CJ

[Dave Schwartz]

CJ,

Absolutely!

Gordon's newsletter is excellent. Personally, I think he should take them all and bundle them into a book. Call it the "Best of Netcapper."


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[andicap]

You can view all of them under "Track Tracts."

[Triple Trio]

Is the book, especially the odds templates, good for the US only? Can horseplayers from other countries benefit from reading the book?

[Glenny]

Steve F. and Dick S.,

I had to respond to your posts because I've come to the exact same conclusion regrding my value play. The vast majority of my profits (not as high as either of you, LOL) over the past 4 years can be attributed to my top two contenders on my line. My overlays which rate 3rd or higher tend to trade money (decent mutuels but low win percentages).

Steve,

I've read your book and really enjoyed it - great concepts with regard to mimimum odds and multiple overlays. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on how you plan on handling two overlays in the same race when you are only considering two horses. Would you pass this, or look to play the highest rated, or both if over 8-1???

Again, a great book. Thanks.

Regards,

=Glenny

[Bob Harris]

Originally posted by Triple Trio
Is the book, especially the odds templates, good for the US only? Can horseplayers from other countries benefit from reading the book?

Since the book doesn't deal with handicapping or contender selection, it is 100% applicable to racing in other countries. The templates in the book don't allow for more than 4 contenders and I know some foreign tracks run 20 horses at a time on a regular basis...you might want to construct a template for 5 contenders if you have a lot of races like that. The concept would be the same.

Bob

[Triple Trio]

Many thanks for your reply Bob. I think I'll order a copy then.

[Bob Harris]

Originally posted by Triple Trio
Many thanks for your reply Bob. I think I'll order a copy then.

Triple,

One other thought if you decide to order the book: In North America (I think we average about 8 runners per race), we normally won't bet on horses above 6-1 on our oddsline and we try to base the line on the theory that our contention will win 80% of the races...20% being offered up to the racing gods so they can f**k with us.

In countries which run lots of horses in each race, those numbers might have to be tweaked a bit...run it by Steve and see what he thinks after you read the book.

Bob

[Triple Trio]

Bob, yes most likely I'll have to tweak Steve's figures. I am in Hong Kong and we usually have 12 to 14 runners in a race. Btw, as a consequence of the larger fields, our favorites win 1/4 rather than 1/3 of the races. I've read (in one of Mitchell's books?) that players in N America can assume that their top 4 contenders will win 80% of the time. According to my own studies, here in Hong Kong the top 4 favorites win only about 65% of the races and that it takes the top 6 favorites to win 80% of the races.

[Derek2U]

is the horse data re: Hong Kong races good?
any good speed figs comparable to Beyers?

[rrbauer]

I was able to score a copy last week and read it on my trip to/from the Belmont.

Since I have been a "value" player for 20+ years, contender-based handicapping and rank-ordering them for the purpose of bet evaluation are "old tricks". A very good idea was the order that you use to attack the races. It makes sense to do "like" races together and not as they fall on the card.

I think the templates are useful if you subscribe to the "my contenders are going to win 80% of the races" philosophy.

Since I believe that record-keeping is paramount to "knowing yourself" and to the absolute truth about how you're doing, I was pleased to see the emphasis on it. And, in that vein, a perfect place to start (if you don't already keep records) is to use the records to measure how your contenders do vis-a-vis the 80% criteria, before you start trying to apply the templates to your betting. Because if your contenders are only winning at a 60% clip, then I got news for you about those templates!

My goal is to have complete focus on what I'm doing, sans distractions of any kind, so the things that seem important to Steve as to the "setting" that you play in are different (way different!) from mine. That is why my table at the Vessels Club at Los Alamitos is in a completely remote section of the club complete with two TV's and two betting machines and no other people (except on Derby day and the BC)! I do agree with knowing who the good mutuel clerks/ticket writers are and taking care of them if you're a "window" bettor.

Finally, and I know that there have been some other posts regarding this. The convenience of skipping over details on contender selection because "everyone knows how to do this" seems misplaced. If the purpose of the book is to help people migrate from a "picking winners" mode to a "making money" mode; then, I think the mindset difference between a "winner" picker and a "contender" picker needs to be addressed because it does change your handicapping perspective as well as your approach to playing.

On balance, I would recommend the book.

[Triple Trio]

Originally posted by Derek2U
is the horse data re: Hong Kong races good?
any good speed figs comparable to Beyers?

There's a lot of info available from Hong Kong Jockey Club's site:

http://www.hongkongjockeyclub.com/english/racing/entry.asp

You get all sorts of info and statistics. You can also view video of the races already run. For example, visit following URL and pick a date from the past:

http://www.hongkongjockeyclub.com/english/racing/results.asp

You can also read the race reports online:

http://www.hongkongjockeyclub.com/english/racing/RaceReportFull.asp

Even training workout info:

http://www.hongkongjockeyclub.com/english/racing/Track_RaceCard.asp

Towards the end of this year, we'll have individual timing for all the horses both during the races as well as in the morning trackwork.

One piece of informatin that's available in HK but not many other places is the body weight of a horse so you know whether the horse has gained or lost weight since its last race.

Re speed figs, I know there are many people doing their own figures but no publicly available figures like Beyer's in the US. On the whole, an average horseplayer in HK is less quantitative and not as sophisticated as the US ones. OTOH, there are more than a few very sophisticated computer groups here so the opposition can be quite tough. My understanding is that some of the rating methods used by these groups are influenced by Aussie writer Don Scott. I don't know much about Don Scott's method but believe it involves converting the times run to 1600m (8f) for comparision purpose.

[steve fierro]

Once again I will respond to a few posts all in one:

Glenny,

Your personal betting line records will guide you to your "two-horse" decisions. My personal records make it easy. I track these two horse opportunities. If I have two and they are both above 8/1 or better I play them both. I have to be honest this is a very volatile situation. It runs red hot and then like right now it is ice cold. The second is very stable. Please remember this is me based on my betting records. One of the most consistent stats that comes from my records is that undeniably when I have two horses overlayed and they are NOT both above 8/1, my highest ranked contender at the lowest odds is by far my best situation.
Hope this helps Steve.

Triple,

Definitely when playing the bigger fields you will need to make adjustments. When you get ready to make 5 and I would recommend 6 horse templates I will be more than willing to help.

rrbauer

I appreciate your review. It is obvious that you are a solid player. It also points out that some of the items in the book helped you. It also helps that you shared some of the things you do re-enforce items like third quarter where you play. Finally, I wrestled with the contender selection part. Since this was my first work I really wanted to place the emphasis on items that hadn't been addressed in depth before, especially record keeping. Now that it's done I still feel it was the right way to go. I do have thoughts in both the maiden and angle categories of contender selection. Thanks again Steve

[Dave Schwartz]

Triple Trio,

We have a Hong Kong "team" as one of our clients. They are very progressive and getting more so.

Thanks for that great link. Very informative. If you have any more on HK, JP or Aus racing I'd appreciate it.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[so.cal.fan]

"One piece of informatin that's available in HK but not many other places is the body weight of a horse so you know whether the horse has gained or lost weight since its last race. "

Sounds like your racing is light years ahead of ours in the US.
Hmmmm......I may move to Hong Kong.

[Triple Trio]

Hi Dave,

Re Hong Kong teams being progressive, they have to be because the competition is so keen. The major groups all use highly statistical approaches. One of the major challenges in tackling Hong Kong racing using a quantitative approach is that there are so few races, only 700 or in a year. On the one hand, one has to extract as much info as possible from a very small database. OTOH, one must be sure that any advantage discovered is statistically significant.

Re HK and Aus racing, following is how HK racing is perceived by an experienced Australian horseplayer:

Anyone who thinks it is easier to predict winners in Hong Kong than in Australia would be (at the least) misinformed or fooling themselves. I have followed form in Hong Kong for more than 10 years (every week) and have a 10 year complete database. It is getting tougher !!!

Generally speaking its even harder these days than in years gone by.

In the "good old days" most horses were very ordinary... the average, more or less capable of winning a Class 3 race at Gatton on a Wednesday. This was primarily due to the maximum value placed on horses racing in Hong Kong. You simply could not race a horse such as Jar Jar Binks... the A$200,000 price tag automatically precluded it. In those days it was also only possible to purchase a horse in a kind of raffle system.

Horse are now shipped in from all parts of the globe and it still takes time to acclimatise. Even if they are capable of a quick win the local conditions may make it difficult to recover for months.

Barrier trial form is the most deceptive and many favourites are installed as such due primarily to the 'workouts' and trials.

The tracks have changed... Happy Valley re-built... dirt tracks... all weather tracks and moveable turn rails which can make a straight up to 100m longer are all part of the hurdles a form handicapper has to contend with. Try backing the horses on the dirt... it is a raffle until they prove they are incapable of handling the conditions.

The 'system' has changed so many times over the last decade but the basic handicapping system is still such that a horse is often penalised severely for a win which may increase its rating (Jockey Club Rating) by up to 20 lbs. This puts it up in weight by this much in same class or pushes it into the next class group on a reasonable weight. The differences in class are quite definable and for a horse to handle two or more wins they must have 'unexposed ability'

Trainers know they only have a limited number of races where conditions are such that they have a good prospect of winning. A win can be planned a season (or more) ahead. A win allows them (connections) to collect big time (standard wager is typically in excess of HK$100k) . The 'system' is fair in some ways in that it allows almost every horse to win a race every second season. If they can't the 'system' pushes them 'out the back door' due to low ratings.

> I would appreciate whatever feedback you can offer . The
> reason that I am currently researching HK form is because
> I will probably be spending some time up there later in the
> year and will arrive "cashed up" and ready to roll .

No good studying the "form". I vividly recall the great Don Scott being in Hong Kong many years ago 'doing form' and betting for a group in Sydney. He sent a telegram (remember those things) saying something along the lines of "...things progressing well up here, getting on top of the form... need more money urgently"

TT

[Triple Trio]

Another thing I want to say about HK racing is that something like 50% of the races are decided by a length or less. Many races have to be decided by photos. Given the fact that our calculations will always involve approximations, it is extremely difficult to be a winning player just by becoming a better selector. And there aren't enough races for one to wait for the right opportunities to come along, i.e. when one horse is projected to beat the field by a comfortable margin. So the decision as to whether to bet or not, and which horse to back, often has to be based on value.

[Aussieplayer]

Couple things:

Triple Trio: Don Scott didn't adjust times to the mile. He didn't believe in times at all as a useful predictor, and use to take great joy in quoting the US Pittsburgh Phil to back him up!

Re: templates - Down here the average field size (all races) is just over 11. Yes, you will need at least 5 horse templates. Maybe 6. Depends on your average field size.

Re: odds you're willing to take: Yes, some tweaking as Bob suggests will be necessary, BUT - not TOO much. I understand the need to very well, but also remember that a 9/1 contender that you actually bet is going to have long runs of outs.
The thought of still sticking to your top 2 or 3 is still valid. It's just that occasionaly you are going to have long odds on those. Such as the Stradbroke we just had with 20 horses. My top contender had a personal price of 5/1!!! However, there are still plenty of opportunites to bet on more solid selections, & I do in fact have the occasional "odds on" chance.

Re: the book's usefulness. I say get it. I absolutely LOVED this book. And the fact that it DIDN'T go into contender selection made it more "universal" in my opinion. I've praised the book so much that if I was forced to find one criticism, it would be that the record keeping could have delved into not using Bettor Keep Track software.

Hope this helps.
AP

[anotherdave]

I agree. I really enjoyed the book, but it would have been nice if the record keeping part did not rely on the use of Bettor Keep Track. I'm not knocking the software, I don't have it, but at $150 U.S. I think it is overpriced. If it was $50, I'd buy it. Either that or I'm cheap (insert joke here). But I can do a lot of what it appears to do on Excel, but probably not as easily.

AD

[Derek2U]

I havent yet bought/read the book, but if anyone's gonna buy
it, go to Gordon Pines page NETCAPPERS.com & buy it. I forget
who said it best: why make Amazon.com richer when you can
help a very dedicated horse player like Gordon Pine out.

[rrbauer]

With regard to record keeping and s/w.

If you have MS Access then you can capture, save and replay (in report form) your betting data without buying anything. You can do similar in Excel if you're spreadsheet savvy. In fact, you can capture in Excel; export the data; and, then import into Access.

If I didn't already have my own "home grown" s/w for capturing and reporting bet data, I wouldn't view $150 as excessive for a full-blown solution. That cost should be recovered in a year's time, if you play frequently, just from the record-keeping. Never mind any "what ifs" and associated functions that the s/w provides.

[modred]

Yep Derek

Just did ... I like the Netcapper site a lot so what ever I want in the way of horse books I'll get them from Gordon. Plus he seems to be competitive pricewise.

[GR1@HTR]

BKT (Bettor Keep Track)

Been using it for a few days. I must say that I am really impressed. The reports are incredible. Much better than I expected. I thought entering the data would be a real drag. But actually it is fun, especially if you are entering positive bets. Now I gotta take time out from playing the ponies and finish the 4 Quarters. BTW, Fierro was on interviewed by TVG today....

[steve fierro]

Just a quick word about BKT. The reason I use it is two-fold. One Gordon Pine. You will not find a better person to deal with in this industry. I have known him for more years than I care to mention. More importantly, I don't know much about creating programs. I also am not versed in Access or Excel. The fact that this has the capability to let me filter any type of bet I want when I want with a few keystrokes is what I enjoy about using it. If you have the capabilty to create your own that's great. If not and you are a basic computer guy like me, this is a nice tool. Gr1 send me your e-mail. steve@racedayusa.com

[Triple Trio]

Aussieplayer: Do you use the Bettor Keep Track program mentioned in this thread? I want to know if it's a "universal" program or it's just for the US only.

One question I want to ask all of you guys is, if after handicapping a race and assigning values to your contenders, you find that the favorite is low on your contender ranking, what would you do in such a case?

In ITS's "Betting Techniques and Portfolio Management at the Racetrack", the advice is that if you assign low probabilites to both the 1st and 2nd favorites, you should pass the race. The reason is that the market is telling you that there's probably something you don't know about the race and that your overlays may be illusory. Personally I find that to be good avice. Nevertheless I'd like to hear your opinions because I think you'll have valuable things to say.

[cj]

Originally posted by Triple Trio

...One question I want to ask all of you guys is, if after handicapping a race and assigning values to your contenders, you find that the favorite is low on your contender ranking, what would you do in such a case?



TT,

I bet these races heavy. I base contender selection foremost on pace and speed ability, and when the favorites don't rank highly in this category, they tend to not perform very well. The catch is, it doesn't happen very often. The Ky Derby and BC Sprint were a couple examples I can think of where the favorites, Harlans Holiday and Kona Gold, were not very highly rated and ran to this ability, OUT!

CJ

[rrbauer]

TT wrote:
"One question I want to ask all of you guys is, if after handicapping a race and assigning values to your contenders, you find that the favorite is low on your contender ranking, what would you do in such a case? "

Generally, this is the "false favorite" situation, that will have many players needing boots to wade through their puddles of drool! :D

I say generally, because there may be "hidden" factors that mitigate the low ranking. Factors such as patterns of improvement (example: workouts) that aren't reflected in prior race performances. It might be a case of the "people in the know" talking to the "people with the dough"!

If a horse is being bet and I can't make a case for it based upon the data available, I have to assume that most players are perceiving it the same way that I am. Hence, this is not the "public" doing this betting.

I think that you have to try and understand why a horse is being "bet". What is the situation? Who are the connections? What does your past experience on this circuit tell you about the performance of horses that are bet this way.

When the tote board is talking to you, it is giving you information that is not in your pp's and other data that you use to handicap. You have to deal with it. If you're wary because of it then back away.

Next race, please!

[Bob Harris]

Well said, Richard!

[Aussieplayer]

TT: I don't use BKT. Mainly because I've been too lazy to find out if it is "universal." The program is certainly worth the money from what I've heard though.
What I was talking about (for non BKT users) is that a discussion on what factors to record in record keeping would have been good in the book. How can you create filters? Only if you've been recording the right information. And (as you'll see in the book TT), class, distance & the other usuals aren't the only things you should be recording.

The subject of what to do when the fav. is ranked low by you is a very interesting, and very vaild one in my opinion.
In a theoretical debate, we can argue VERY good cases for (a) pass the race, you don't understand it, and (b) bet the race heavy, this is what you have been waiting for.
Both are very legit. arguments.

The solution? So simple. In the paraphrased words of Steve Fierro, "look at your betting records, they'll tell you!!!"

Hope this helps.
AP

[Aussieplayer]

TT: One thing I forgot to add in a previous post re: tweaking your templates to account for larger fields & why you need to do this very CONSERVATIVELY - at least here in Australia - is because it's still the top 3 or 4 that are the real chances. This can only mean that there must be more "field fillers" here than in the US for example.

However, from what you've already written, HK and Oz racing is more different than I imagined.

Cheers
AP

[sq764]

I am interested in reading this book, but do not really feel like paying $35 for it.. Anyone willing to part with a used one?? Or even trust me enough to let me borrow for a quick reading??

(I know the last suggestion won't go over well, but worth a try)

[socalsportsbook]

Give me a break! Pony up the $35.

[sq764]

Nice pun..

[cj]

I finally got around to ordering the book (from Gordon Pine) and have only good things to say about it. I think it is well worth the price. I already make my own betting line and am not going to change to the templates Steve uses, but the idea is great. The book also has many other things to offer even if you already make you own line. I love the section on record keeping, and anyone with a decent knowledge of databases could emulate Bettor Keep Track without the price IMO, but the program looks to be very good. I also loved Steve's idea of how to handle the current late odds drops on many low priced contenders. Many other good ideas throughout the book. Well done work Steve.

CJ

[BillW]

CJ,

I agree. After prototyping a few of Steve's ideas in live wagering over the past few weeks I'm about to begin reading it again. I liked the concept of rating both contender selection and the odds assignment. Good tool for objective performance analysis later on.


BTW welcome back,

Bill

[GR1@HTR]

Going out on a limb here:
The most original and best horse racing book to come out in the last 25 years.