Beyer Speed Chart Track Adjustments

[cj]

Arlington
1 turn mile, +4 points

Belmont
1 1/16 miles, -8 points
1 1/8 miles, -9 points
1 1/4 miles, -4 points

Bay Meadows
5f, -6 points
5.5f, -10 points

Churchill
6.5f thru 1 turn mile, +5 points

Colonial
5.5f, -3 points
8.5f and 9f, -8 points

Delaware
5f and 5.5f, -3 points

Golden Gate
4.5f thru 5.5f, -5 points

Gulfstream (tentative)
1 turn mile, +15 points

Hawthorne
6.5f, +3 points

Hollywood
6.5f thru 7f, -2 points

Laurel (tentative)
1 turn mile, +15 points

Meadowlands
5f thru 5.5f, -7 points

Monmouth
1 mile, -5 points
1 mile 70 yards, -2 points

Oaklawn
5.5f, +4 points

Pimlico
6f, +8 points

Pleasanton
6f, +3 points

Santa Anita
7f, +2 points

Saratoga
5f, -8 points

Solano
5.5f, -5 points

Santa Rosa
4.5f thru 5.5f, -4 points

Turfway
6.5f, +7 points

Now, you are probably wondering, what is all this crap? You can use these adjustments to check the Beyer variants, and see where they may have "projected" a race. They are also good adjustment if you use his chart to make your own figures. I have found the Beyer guys are using these adjustments when they make figures.

What they do is allow you to compare apples to apples. If you take the raw time, look it up on a Beyer speed chart, then apply any adjustments I have listed, you will find that most races around the same number of turns will fall right in line and you can easily extract the variant for the day. (1 turn miles and Belmont and Colonial routes are usually lumped in with the other sprints.)

Here is an example. At Turfway, you have six sprint races, races 1 thru 6. Races 3 and 4 are at 6.5 furlongs. Now, you look up the times on the Beyer speed charts, and you get 60, 65, 75, 70, 45, 90. With my adjustment, you have to add 7 points to races 3 and 4, so you now have 60, 65, 82, 77, 45, 90. The Beyers assigned might be 50, 55, 71, 68, 45, 80. Now, looking at the variant, you see Beyer has a variant of 10 fast, 10 fast, 11 fast, 9 fast, 0, and 10 fast. It is pretty obvious that the variant for sprints that day is right around 10 fast, but the 5th sticks out as an obvious projection race. If you try to do this without the adjustments above, you will be lost.

Hope that helps, I've been doing this so long its a little tough to explain. Did I make any sense?

[First_Place]

Thanks very much. See, CJ has proven how wrong I was (in another post).

FP

[cj]

So, what value are the projected races? Well, they are *usually* wrong in my opinion. Most times, they should just leave it the way it is.

Here is an example. In the example I did, the 45 should have been a 35 if the correct variant was applied. I do pace figures, and most times, these races have extreme pace scenarios. Something like in this case, pace of 65 and speed of 35. The pace explains why the race came back abnormally slow.

The problem is this---If a few closers comes from the back and finish close up, the figures for those horses are way overrated.

These also happen in the opposite direction. This is an old example, but I'll never forget it. At the time, undefeated Mossflower won an allowance race and was given a Beyer speed figure of around 98. However, checking all the races that day, if the same variant was applied to her race, she should have been give a 114! Next race, she made her initial journey to stakes company in the Grade 1 Hempstead, and paid $11 romping against a group she towered over if that 114 was believable.

One other benefit of this is clearly seeing when a variant for the day has been split, whether for weather conditions, or something else, you might see +10, +10, +10, +10, +2, +2, +2.

[Valuist]

CJ-

What is your take on this: if a track on a particular day has four 6 furlong races and three 7 furlong races; the Beyer people would lump them together and make one variant. Why not make separate variants and compare only the 6f races to each other and the 7f races to each other? I do this when I can; obviously at some tracks there may be only 1 race at a given distance for the day, but I believe this produces more precise numbers. It seems that track maintenace in chute areas isn't always the same as the rest of the track. Maybe it sounds like I'm splitting hairs, but in figure making sometimes we have to.

[cj]

I definitely agree that splitting distances can lead to better figures. If there is a 20mph headwind on the backstretch, there is no way 6f and 7f races should be lumped together, but often times they are. Let's keep a few things under the hat, eh? :D

One other thing of note, some of the people that are doing the Beyers are better, or more meticulous, than some of the others. I don't know who they are, but it is obvious if you go through this exercise often enough.

[andicap]

The problem is this---If a few closers comes from the back and finish close up, the figures for those horses are way overrated.

CJ, I'm curious, why would a closer run a faster race than normal against a fast pace? If the pace collapses around him that doesn't make the closer run any faster -- his deceleration/acceleration will depend on how fast HE is running, not how quickly the horses in front of him are running.

The only answer I can think of is that in a fast pace the closer will too run a swifter than usual early fraction, but still have more than enough energy left late to run a speedier final time than usual. That's because being in the back of the pack he still didn't use up that much energy in the fast, early stages (as long as it wasn't TOO FAST).
While his final fraction might be a bit slower than against a pokey early pace, it is still quick enough that his final time/velocity will improve.

But if the early pace is TOO fast and the closer is still far behind -- but running much faster earlier than usual -- he could be as tired in the stretch as the pace pressers/early horses. So the speed of the speed or a good EP type survives because even the closers were too pooped to give their usual late surge.

[cj]

Hey Andi,

He wouldn't, that is the point. I say the race in my example should have been given a 35, but the Beyer guys will adjust the variant to what they think the race should have been run in. I didn't say the closers won, just finished close up. But say the winner won wire to wire and usually runs a 45.

The figure makers, without taking pace into account, look at the seemingly "off" variant and project the horse to a 45. That is fine for the front runner, as it is still probably close to his overall ability.

The problem is the horses who maybe he beat a head and a neck that are now given speed figures around 10 points higher than they deserve.

I don't think closers run "faster" when the pace is fast, it is just ideal circumstances, the fast pace, are going to produce their best races. It's no different than a front runner loping alone on an uncontested lead in slow time. These will probably be the best races in his PPs as well, final time/figure wise at least.

[Zaf]

Good Stuff CJ !!!

ZAFONIC

[Big Bill]

Thanks, cj, for the promised numbers.

Big Bill

[Tom]

Great thread. So in the example, the low Beyer for the closers is why the closer got there - if the race had run the 45, he never would have gotten his picture taken. I see this kind of thing ALL the time at FL.

[andicap]

Hey Andi,

He wouldn't, that is the point. I say the race in my example should have been given a 35, but the Beyer guys will adjust the variant to what they think the race should have been run in. I didn't say the closers won, just finished close up. But say the winner won wire to wire and usually runs a 45.

The figure makers, without taking pace into account, look at the seemingly "off" variant and project the horse to a 45. That is fine for the front runner, as it is still probably close to his overall ability.

The problem is the horses who maybe he beat a head and a neck that are now given speed figures around 10 points higher than they deserve.

I don't think closers run "faster" when the pace is fast, it is just ideal circumstances, the fast pace, are going to produce their best races. It's no different than a front runner loping alone on an uncontested lead in slow time. These will probably be the best races in his PPs as well, final time/figure wise at least.


Ah, I see. Beyer will give the closers a 40-45 but they really ran in the low-mid 30s. And that's what your figures adjust for. That type of situation, so the front runner still gets his 45 (due to the hot pace) and the closers get what they deserve.
Neat stuff.

[JPinMaryland]

Good information here, so where can I find the par times, or whatever it is that Beyer would be referring to?

[QUOTE=cj] Here is an example. In the example I did, the 45 should have been a 35 if the correct variant was applied. I do pace figures, and most times.....[QUOTE]

Umm where is this example? It's not in this thread. Is it in another thread? CLarification please.

[BillW]

Good information here, so where can I find the par times, or whatever it is that Beyer would be referring to?


The parallel time charts are in Andy Beyer's book "Beyer on Speed".