Let's analyze the closers for this years Derby

[JPinMaryland]

I guess there are a ton of closers this year and so I thought it might be useful to try to list them and quantify their abilties if possible. I guess I'll start with two I saw on wire to wire this week.

Greater Good, So West stakes, Beyer fig was 85 for this race, I am guessing he ran the final furlough in about 12.5 or maybe a little more. Which might extrapolate to a pretty good final fraction if say he can run a 25 sec. final quarter in the 10f derby.

anyone have a better idea on what his final fraction was?

Andromeda's Hero. Sam Davis stakes. Beyer fig was 79, he seemed to have made up about 4 lengths in the last furlough, not sure what this translates into, I think the final 1/4 was just under 27 sec, so I am guessing he ran his final quarter in 26??? not sure.

ANyhow, can we get some more facts on the other closers? Is Galloping Grocer a closer? I think Sort it Out is, huh?

[Richard]

I'm still keeping my eye on Naughty New Yorker.Killer late speed.Might need to work on early speed just a bit,though.

[JPinMaryland]

Does that guy like to run near the rail? do you have any PPs? I have his last race on tape, cant remember now, there were four horses bunched up at the end...

[Richard]

Which "guy" are you talking about?

[JPinMaryland]

Naughty New Yorker. I think he was in the 3 path in that race..

[Richard]

I have two of his results charts from AQU.Would you like me to e-mail them to you?

[JPinMaryland]

oh that would be nice! I have a lot of video from Wire to Wire this year so I guess I will try to summarize what I have found about each horse. thanks. let me know if the correct email is showing (is it the cavtel.net address?)

[46zilzal]

tooooooooo early, wait until some of them go piece of ground. Can't tell a thing yet

"Anyhow, can we get some more facts on the other closers? Is Galloping Grocer a closer? I think Sort it Out is, huh?"


Galloping Grocer has NOT shown anything like being a closer: just a precosious two year old.

[JPinMaryland]

Okay I'll cross him off the list. What about Bandini? The other guys around here were arguing about whether he would go to the front in the FOY. Cant recall his earlier race..

[JPinMaryland]

Naughty New Yorker was impressive on replay. He appears to have made up at least 4 lengths in the last quarter mile (Whirlaway Stakes, 2/12) I believe AQU is speed favoring in general so that too is a good sign. I wonder if that race might prove to be a key race, four horses arriving near the finish at the same time. Not sure if NNY is in the top class, probably need to study his other races.

Scipion. A lot of buzz over him after the Risen Star (FG; 8 1/2 f) but I would need to get high odds to put money on him. He certainly seems to be a closer judging from a brief look at the PPs. He seems to fade anytime he gets near the front and does better when he's back. I guess he was in the BC juv. and faded from 3rd to 6th. Faded also in a Sept. alw. race. Pace was moderate in both.

Judging from the tape, he looks to have run about 25 3/5 in the final quarter at the Fair Grounds race, probably needs to improve on that. He must have passed a lot of tired horses. dunno if these horses were not yet in full form, or if FG was a tiring surface to run on. My guess is this race was just a fortunate coming togther of circumstances.

But hey,he's running again either this week or next, so maybe we'll get a better idea.

[ceejay]

Okay I'll cross him off the list. What about Bandini? The other guys around here were arguing about whether he would go to the front in the FOY. Cant recall his earlier race..
I was impressed by his performance. He was caught wide both turns and had some late kick.

[JPinMaryland]

YEs I think I agree w/ you on Bandini, although technically I dont think he is a closer so not as pertinent to dicussion here.

Also despite my defense of him, his jockey Johnny Vee was somewhat disappointed that the horse did not respond to his urging down the stretch. This according to Wire to Wire tv show, so handicappers will have to watch him closely. I would have liked him more had Johnny Vee not said that, I did not realize how hard he was pushing the horse.

[rastajenk]

I'm under the impression that Scipion is a different, more mature runner than last year. I'm looking forward to this weekend's race to see if that opinion is justified.

[Elysium Stables]

Very suprised everyone has left out Afleet Alex the only race he didn't close very well in was the BC Juvenile and that was due to greivious judgment errors on behalf of the jockey

[JPinMaryland]

Have really not seen him much since I am going by my video of wire to wire mostly. So this is more a function of what is front of me. I did see him in person at BEL last Oct. where Proud Accolade kept him bottled in after the final turn.

[alysheba88]

Why focus on the closers? Are usually awful bets even in the Derby.

Sure some of them clunk up for third or sometimes second, but rarely win, especially in recent years

[JPinMaryland]

the idea is to break the potential field into different sections and analyze each that way. Maybe someone else can do front runners and pressers. Are you up for that?

[alysheba88]

I got you. Very good idea!

[JPinMaryland]

Ive just been lax in following this up. Will try to get this part up to date this week. ANd it's also still a bit early to project how these guys will run a final fraction in May. THese guys are happy to run 25 sec. final 1/4s at a one mile distance: hard to project...

What should I do with the off the pace types like Afleet Alex? Make a seperate sections for Pressers and Stalkers?

[46zilzal]

you cannot PROJECT what an animal will run in the FINAL part of a race without knowing what the FRONT part of the race is. That's why so often that big closers, WHICH ON PAPER should dominate, simply do not...THEY HAVE NOTHING to do with the pace and HAVE to passively relate to something neither the rider or the animal has a thing to do with. I has to SET UP for them.

[JPinMaryland]

I has to set up for them.

what does this mean?

[46zilzal]

The passive horses, ones that NEED to have a pace (which they have nothing to do with) "fall apart" ahead of them, or at least be quick enough that there are pace victims, HAVE to HAVE the pace they need to close on.

That's why the big closers: Cryptoclearance, Silky SUllivan, Cefis, Victory Gallop, Rumbo, Strike the Gold, etc. NEVER won the number of races that they should.

"IT has to set up for them" TYPO