View Full Version : Fountain of Youth
OTM Al
03-03-2005, 03:40 PM
They just posted the draw for Saturday
1 B. B. Best
2 Kansas City Boy
3 General John B
4 Park Avenue Ball
5 Papi Chullo
6 Defer
7 High Fly
8 Bandini
9 Wild Desert
10 Dearest Mon
11 Natural Phenomenon
High Fly is wide again and Bandini even wider. Not good spots. The scratch parade should begin soon.....
depalma13
03-03-2005, 03:57 PM
Bandini won't be scratched, especially with the expected scratch of Kansas City Boy. He easily becomes the controlling speed and will win on the front end in another wire to wire FOY.
I'll probably go with Papi Chullo as he comes out of a strong race. I don't like Bandini at all. I have his last race as 94-89, not very impressive at all. I like to see big figures when horses dominate a race and win by large margins, not mediocre ones. Sometimes these kind will fool you, but that isn't the way to bet.
Valuist
03-03-2005, 04:26 PM
This doesn't seem like the strongest FOY by any means. Bandini maybe didn't run a big number, but supposedly Pletcher is very high on him.
Just took a quick glance at the pp's as they are now.
DEFER
midnight
03-03-2005, 05:51 PM
I have quite a few bets on Bandini in the futures bets at the books and in the first futures pool. Most were put down after his allowance win (before the futures pool opened). I believe that Bandini has a decent chance to win the Derby. I've seen both of the horse's last two races. They amounted to paid workouts, and he didn't appear to be asked or used in either one. He has the breeding to get the Derby distance. Of course, it's a long road from here to Churchill, and for Bandini it starts Saturday.
DerbyTrail
03-04-2005, 05:51 AM
The more I've been looking at the pp's and sheets, the more it looks like High Fly is a standout versus this group. His #'s are far better than anyone in this.. by a wide margin. Someone is going to have to REALLY make a big forward move to get on terms with him.
Among the candidates to improve, 'Tee''s right about Defer... He's run three even races in a row and looks ready to move forward. Certainly bred for the trip, and Shug has been raving about him to anyone in Hallandale that will listen...
I like what Papi Chullo has accomplished as a maiden, but there's a lot of speculation that the Cali Beyers are a bit inflated, including his. Does get a favorable draw though...
Gen. John B is better than he looks on 'paper', adds Santos and drew well, but gives weight to all but "Ball" and faces the cross country ship...
Wild Desert shouldn't be hurt by his post as a late runner and lures Day off the rocking chair to ride...
Bandini 'fits' with these, but is being is asked for a lot more than he was in the condition races. I also don't like that it took 15 days to get him back to the track after the easy ALW win. That's not a great signal from a sophomore colt in February. Especially one that's had some physical issues...
Working on my DT previews now...
I don't count DearestMon out. And I expect a career best. If thats enough to catch up to what may be some world class speed... is anybody guess.
I'll be looking at the tote. They've installed him at 12-1. Getting discredited in the 15 length defeat in the Holly Bull. The more he's ignored the better.
I have all kinds of sound excuses for Holy Bull... Just the way that race unfolded and finished. Plus he missed the break. The post will not hurt the style of race he needs to run. I'm perfectly content with Dominguez. And not only is there clear two turn speed signed up... I think there is a bit of hidden speed from the Colts going Sprint to Route. Those 2-3- and 4 lengths off a sprint, frequently turn into 1's and 2's going first route. I see all kinds of bad scenarios for front end runners in this race.
I'm not sold High Fly's a rater. I see him more as a close up Stalker. I can't see him spotting the front runners more than 5 lengths... and thats where I think the winner will come from... 6 or 7 back at the Mile Marker. Can high Fly rate a pace...? If they go low 23, low 45, 111ish.... Can he sit off that?
I see him hooked 1 or 2 lengths off a Pace that cannot be sustained. Probably surrounded by 2nd class speed , applying false pressure.
I can easliy see myself using Dearest Mon.
rastajenk
03-04-2005, 05:17 PM
I read somewhere else that KCBoy is expected to scratch. What's up with that? I didn't realize McPeek was such a weenie. Does this horse have Derby aspirations or not? (And I don't mean, does he have an honest chance to win the Derby or not; I mean, do they want to get there?) Cause the money-making opportunities are going to get tougher, not easier.
I read somewhere else that KCBoy is expected to scratch. What's up with that? I didn't realize McPeek was such a weenie. .
Where'd you read that? Someones opinion or hunch probably. He's part of entry so that may be a strategy. I saw where poeple think DearetsMon will scratch as well? I don't understand that theory. Violette said on 3/1/05 that he had the colt right where he wanted him and all systems were go for the FOY... and if he needed anymore incentive..He's the defending trainer from last year with Read The Footnotes. I don't understand why some think he's a likley scratch. I don't think the post is major issue... Although I looked around and I can't find to many people that rank him a serious contender. But thats why they run these things. So we'll see.
chrisg
03-04-2005, 08:04 PM
Where'd you read that? Someones opinion or hunch probably. He's part of entry so that may be a strategy. I saw where poeple think DearetsMon will scratch as well? I don't understand that theory. Violette said on 3/1/05 that he had the colt right where he wanted him and all systems were go for the FOY... and if he needed anymore incentive..He's the defending trainer from last year with Read The Footnotes. I don't understand why some think he's a likley scratch. I don't think the post is major issue... Although I looked around and I can't find to many people that rank him a serious contender. But thats why they run these things. So we'll see.
A couple DRF columns mention that that KC & DMon were likely to scratch...I think Violette said something about not liking the 8 post on out for 9f @GP and that McPeek said KC doesn't like running inside.
rastajenk
03-04-2005, 08:15 PM
I guess it never occurred to them to take back a little at the start and pick whatever path they want? Hell, it'd be a good experience for both of them, quite likely.
Pace Cap'n
03-04-2005, 08:57 PM
A couple DRF columns mention that that KC & DMon were likely to scratch...I think Violette said something about not liking the 8 post on out for 9f @GP and that McPeek said KC doesn't like running inside.
And people wonder what's wrong with horseracing.
chrisg
03-04-2005, 09:31 PM
I guess it never occurred to them to take back a little at the start and pick whatever path they want? Hell, it'd be a good experience for both of them, quite likely.
I agree; I especially don't understand McPeek...of course I'm going on the assumption that that is how he really feels about it...but if the horse is ready & you need graded Stks $$$ to get in the Derby (don't you?), then I'd think they'd take their chances...maybe it's more about where he wants his other entrant?
Heck if I know.
Figman
03-04-2005, 10:03 PM
KC Boy wants to be a "Louisiana Boy" March 12th at the Fair Grounds.
Bubbles
03-04-2005, 11:18 PM
[QUOTE=DerbyTrail]The more I've been looking at the pp's and sheets, the more it looks like High Fly is a standout versus this group. His #'s are far better than anyone in this.. by a wide margin. Someone is going to have to REALLY make a big forward move to get on terms with him.[QUOTE]
I totally agree. He should move forward off his last, where he was steadied late. 5/2 isn't exactly enticing, but it's better than Declan's Moon at Santa Anita.
toetoe
03-04-2005, 11:22 PM
Can you give me the date of Dearest Mon's last race? I'd like to watch the replay and, without Trackhorses, I need help finding the right day.
Thanks.
the little guy
03-04-2005, 11:56 PM
Bandini won't be scratched, especially with the expected scratch of Kansas City Boy. He easily becomes the controlling speed and will win on the front end in another wire to wire FOY.Have you looked at the pps? Because if you have and you actually think Bandini is " the controlling speed " then you must have different pps than I do. If B.B.Best breaks there is NO chance Bandini will get the lead from him. Frankly, I have no idea how or why anyone would like Bandini in this spot. To me, if High Fly doesn't win, and he's going to be VERY tough to beat, it will be because B.B. Best wires the field.
Bandini?
Can you give me the date of Dearest Mon's last race? I'd like to watch the replay and, without Trackhorses, I need help finding the right day.
Thanks.
feb 5, 2005 1oth race gulfstream park, post 6 , holy bull grd3. 5th by 15 lengths.
. If B.B.Best breaks there is NO chance Bandini will get the lead from him.
Bandini?
You think he's the only one in here with sub 22 speed? and going sprint to Route from the rail it makes sense for him to try and get loose and brave on the front? Bandini looks almost as quick... but from 7 spots over.. the lead might be out of the question. Greater Good is a Turtle and BB didn't exactly get mega Daylight on GG in the Ky Jock Club in the early going. Those Blinkers mighta stripped BB of his Rocket Boosters .. He did'nt lay a glove on the speed in the SunDash last out.
I've been reading around... Fair amount of people give the MDN a shot off the pace. #10 Natural Phenom.
I guess if he scratchs it doesn't matter.. But Dearest Mon gets bet to 3-1 vs High Fly Last out... Throws up a stinker.... and has built in excuses and really doesn't need one because it was first time two turns... First Time stakes company... and the race ran Like very few thought it would.. Now after being worthy of 3-1 vs High Fly... he's "no Chance colt"...?
tonto1944
03-05-2005, 08:46 AM
Papi Chullo just getsn better with each race. This horse is gonna sit right behind the speed and blow by them in the stretch. I am gonna key him over 3 or 4 horses don't know which ones yet. Gonna wait for scratches and see. But I am def. gonna put a nice bet on him.
Scratch Kansas City Boy... Only. Scratch KC Boy.
Thats it. I just got the Scr
midnight
03-05-2005, 05:56 PM
Wasn't impressed at all with anything in the race. High Fly didn't appear strong at the end. Bandini just didn't seem interested in running until the very end. BB's Best raced well, just no match for the first two. The rest were blah. Time was 8 lengths slower than what Eddington raced in the previous race.
Bandini might improve off this experience, but I'm obviously not as fond of my futures bets on him as I was.
the little guy
03-05-2005, 06:09 PM
B.B.Best was " no match " for the first two? Really. So setting a strong pace, fighting it out with the favorite and winner through the lane, only to get nailed right before the wire by the suck-up Bandini constitutes " no match ". I'm gonna have to remember this stuff. Of course I'm the idiot who thought B.B.Best was lone speed.
I do however agree that the entire race was singularly unimpressive. I think they should all rest up and point for the Discovery on opening day at Aqueduct.
Did High Fly stop? Or did Bandini find another gear. It looked like a stop to me.
Declans Moon on the other hand... I was impressed with. Worked for everything he got, got smashed entering first turn.....was a bit wide....had to catch Going wild who DID get a trip,,, AND it was clear he wasn't 100% and still dominated.
Bridge Jumper at OP. 125 Grand to show on AA. 5 min to post
Mutiple Jumpers. 300 Grand now. make that 500
the little guy
03-05-2005, 06:32 PM
Boy, I don't agree about Declan's Moon. I thought those horses looked like they needed oxygen in the stretch and were very unimpressive as a group. Declan's Moon may be a very nice horse, but I thought today's race opened up a LOT of distance questions.
Denman's call was absolutely embarrassing. " And Declan's Moon couldn't have been more impressive ". Yeah right.
What exactly was B.B Best's excuse?
Boy, I don't agree about Declan's Moon. I thought those horses looked like they needed oxygen in the stretch and were very unimpressive as a group. Declan's Moon may be a very nice horse, but I thought today's race opened up a LOT of distance questions.
Denman's call was absolutely embarrassing. " And Declan's Moon couldn't have been more impressive ". Yeah right.
I was watching the race with a Friend. I said to him, the horse didnt look comfortable. And I thought at one point he had no business winning the race. He did look like he was laboring.. Not tired. Just not fluid. And The way I size that up based simply on my visual... was if he could do what he did at 75? 90%?.... He could be very real when fit and fires.
the little guy
03-05-2005, 06:45 PM
What exactly was B.B Best's excuse?I never claimed BB Best had an excuse. I will say that in the context of the race he ran much better than Fraudini. Anyone who bets their money at the racetrack, and holds the opinion that horses that perform in the relative manner that those two did and thinks Fraudini ran better will be a major money loser.
My entire life is predicated on that opinion.
the little guy
03-05-2005, 06:46 PM
No doubt, Suff, Declan's Moon rates to improve as a horse. I question whether or not that improvement will matter enough as the distances increase. I just felt today's performance was not impressive at all.
I never claimed BB Best had an excuse. I will say that in the context of the race he ran much better than Fraudini. Anyone who bets their money at the racetrack, and holds the opinion that horses that perform in the relative manner that those two did and thinks Fraudini ran better will be a major money loser.
My entire life is predicated on that opinion.
Well I don't believe he set a strong pace & because of that he was able to fight it out with the favorite & the winner through the lane.
Just take a look at the fractions.
No doubt, Suff, Declan's Moon rates to improve as a horse. I question whether or not that improvement will matter enough as the distances increase. I just felt today's performance was not impressive at all.
My Analogy would be.. The Red Sox beating Tampa Bay 5-4 in 12 innings without Manny and Big Papi in the lineup!..... :jump:
the little guy
03-05-2005, 06:59 PM
I did take a look at the fractions, Tee, that's why I made the statements I did. He ran aproximately .3 seconds faster to the half than Zakocity, the closest distance race to his, which is why I felt he set a solid pace. I never said it was blazing, but I maintain that it was a solid pace. The fillies ran a similar fraction in the Bonnie Miss and absolutely collapsed, walking home.
I did take a look at the fractions, Tee, that's why I made the statements I did. He ran aproximately .3 seconds faster to the half than Zakocity, the closest distance race to his, which is why I felt he set a solid pace. I never said it was blazing, but I maintain that it was a solid pace. The fillies ran a similar fraction in the Bonnie Miss and absolutely collapsed, walking home.
Strong pace to solid to ? :)
Let's start with the fillies, Aspen Tree & Annette's Jet had little or no experience going long. I had neither on my tickets and wasn't surprised that they collapsed.
Zakocity - He went much faster in the 3rd 1/4 & to the mile for that matter than the FOY, he was coming off a top effort out of a race most don't put much stock into. Was it really a big surprise that he got leg weary late?
B.B. had two 1 1/16th races under his belt, he set 1/4's where each was slower than the last & he got run down by two horses. I for one am not going to give him too much credit for todays effort.
the little guy
03-05-2005, 07:37 PM
I never did give him too much credit for today's performance ( or any credit whatsoever ). I simply feel he ran the second best race in a very mediocre race. That's all. I absolutely think his distance limitations were exposed. I wouldn't tout him off this effort at all ( and never did ). My whole argument was that he ran better than Fraudini. I doubt you disagree.
I made a big exacta with him second to High Fly ( which was paying $60 ) so it was a frustrating loss. There have been many worse and there will be many more worse.
I'll call it a draw & want to see another round before making a definite decision.
midnight
03-05-2005, 08:05 PM
I never did give him too much credit for today's performance ( or any credit whatsoever ). I simply feel he ran the second best race in a very mediocre race. That's all. I absolutely think his distance limitations were exposed. I wouldn't tout him off this effort at all ( and never did ). My whole argument was that he ran better than Fraudini. I doubt you disagree.
I made a big exacta with him second to High Fly ( which was paying $60 ) so it was a frustrating loss. There have been many worse and there will be many more worse.
Now I understand why you're calling Bandini names. He beat you out of a bet.
But let's get this straight.....
BB's Best set his own fractions and had a two length lead six furlongs into the race: with three furlongs to go. When a horse sets reasonable fractions (1:11 is a decent pace but hardly torrid), he's supposed to have some resistance when challenged thereafter. He had some, but he couldn't hold off either High Fly or Bandini. To put it plainly, he started inside, rode the rail on an uncontested lead for two-thirds of the race, and couldn't hold off a horse (Bandini) who broke from an unfavorable post, went three-wide on both turns and who also had to make up two lengths with three furlongs to go. I wouldn't call his effort second best. Reverse the post positions and let Bandini go from post 2 and get better placed with less early effort, while BB's Best has to work to get to the lead from post 8, and Bandini might well have won the race, while BB's Best might not have hit the top four.
toetoe
03-05-2005, 09:38 PM
Thanks, Suff.
toetoe
03-05-2005, 09:48 PM
I don't know what to think of Declawed Moon, Trevor's take notwithstanding, but I agree that the BadWeenie race was so-so.
I'd like to know what odds I could get for a narrowed-down version of the KY.-bred / non-KY.-bred prop bet, to wit: Will a N.Y.-bred win the Derby?
I've liked the N.Y.-breds all along, and if you just stay in training and don't disgrace yourself, every month you look better. I'm a naughty Californian for loving N.N.Y., and now I feel ashamed of wanting to kick J-L Samyn to the curb. Wonder whether Joy Scott is available.
I was no timpressed at all with Decaln's Mood, neither his race nor his appearance afterwards. He looked whased out and tired. Granted, he wasnot 100%, but I thought he should have won easier and not looked so bad in the winner's circle.
High Fly was the horse based on CJ's numbers. His last race, converting CJ figs to Quirin figs was a 107-109 and the previous race was a 106-109. The Derby profile is 107-111, so he is coming into the right numbers as he goes. Can't wait to see what he got today.
CJ's figs are very good....very good. I have a problem visualizing the race unsing the Beyer format so I made up a chart to convert them to Quirin style ($10K claimer=100) which I have been using for about 25 years.
JPinMaryland
03-06-2005, 01:44 AM
High Fly was the horse based on CJ's numbers. His last race, converting CJ figs to Quirin figs was a 107-109 and the previous race was a 106-109..
Ummm, didnt CJ pick Papi Chulo? So whatever that means.
I think you guys are underestimating Bandini, this is first real test in serious competition. As Randy Moss said: this is the first time this horse has seen the backs of other horses. Perhaps that is why it looked like he wasnt really running until the end. I would say his effort is something to build upon, a second to the horse that is the favorite right now for the derby is not too bad.
DIdnt they say that Bandini had broken down his stall before the post parade or something like that? Is that a good sign or a bad sign?
JPinMaryland
03-06-2005, 03:28 AM
Correction: High Fly is not the fav. for derby; Declan's is.
Bandini was getting to the winner at the end, so I dunno how anyone can think he wasnt second best today. He went 3 wide in both turns and was getting to the winner.
BB's Best set moderate fractions on a speed favoring track and lost the lead w/ about a 1/4 mile to go. I am curious as to what your evaluation would be had he set fractions of say 46 and 1.10 flat and finished w/ the same beaten lengths as the actual race?
the little guy
03-06-2005, 11:57 AM
JP, this is in no way a defense of BB Best, but I don't have any idea how someone who either watched yesterday's GP races, or even looked at the charts, could call it anything close to " speed favoring ". I'm not suggesting it was unkind to speed, as I think it was like most tracks, fair and even.
Ummm, didnt CJ pick Papi Chulo? So whatever that means...
I made a bad bet. He had a slightly better number than High Fly last out, but I knew High Fly had a terrible trip. I still wouldn't have bet High Fly at that low price, probably should have passed.
I tentatively have the race pace - speed combo for the FOY at 97-101, so the pace was slightly slow, but not too slow. Certainly enough to hinder anyone closing from the back.
the little guy
03-06-2005, 12:47 PM
I made a bad bet. He had a slightly better number than High Fly last out, but I knew High Fly had a terrible trip. I still wouldn't have bet High Fly at that low price, probably should have passed.Yer a disgrace. How dare you pick a loser. I think it is clear from your posting here that you know nothing about this game.
Have you considered knitting as a hobby? I know I have.
keilan
03-06-2005, 12:52 PM
FWIW I also had the track rated as fair and even @ GP yesterday
Yer a disgrace. How dare you pick a loser. I think it is clear from your posting here that you know nothing about this game.
Have you considered knitting as a hobby? I know I have.
:)
keilan
03-06-2005, 01:06 PM
Ummm, didnt CJ pick Papi Chulo? So whatever that means.
I think you guys are underestimating Bandini, this is first real test in serious competition.
Cj hardly needs anyone here to come to his defence or speak for him but seriously your quip was uncalled for. There is a significant difference between picking winners and making money at this game, most on this board understood that High Fly would be the odds on favourite at post time and anyone looking to play the race went looking for value.
You will find value in Bandini from here on in, I hope you wager with both hands. ;)
Just out of curiosity,
Was Nationalore ever 6/1? :)
I think he was in his debut.
toetoe
03-06-2005, 01:07 PM
So we agree the FoY was only sew-sew? Seams to me you're not yet in stitches, so i must continue. Nawww ....
keilan
03-06-2005, 01:15 PM
I tentatively have the race pace - speed combo for the FOY at 97-101, so the pace was slightly slow, but not too slow.
Craig I had the projected pace at M 90's, I suspect you were right around that number also.
Show Me the Wire
03-06-2005, 02:07 PM
Weak race in my humble opinion. I do not believe it show cased one legitimate KD horse. B. B. Best ran an impressive race but not good enough to hold off two other second tier (looking at their performances in the FOY) KD elgibles. B.B. had it his own way, the best trip, on a fair track and couldn't finish. Do not think you will see much improvement from this horse.
The winner, High Fly got late and was barely striding at the wire while carrying head very high. Very tired horse and seemed to show distance limitations heading down the KD trail.
Bandini, what can you say, hard ridden especially from the 3/8 pole. Jockey was asking this horse to run the whole race. Not a prep I would want as a trainer, having to use this horse so hard during a prep race almost catching a very tired High Fly. This effort does not bode well for much further improvement in the weeks leading up to the derby.
Have you considered knitting as a hobby? I know I have.
Hobby? I have 3 sweaters up on Ebay now. They better sell because thats how I plan on playing NY this week!
JPinMaryland
03-06-2005, 05:55 PM
JP, this is in no way a defense of BB Best, but I don't have any idea how someone who either watched yesterday's GP races, or even looked at the charts, could call it anything close to " speed favoring "..
That was Randy Moss said on ABC, if I recall correctly. Hammerin' Hank said that at the moment (meaning at the time of the race) it was favoring off the pace types who were coming down the middle.
Hank's pick was Defer on that basis, but in fairness he made it clear Defer was his second choice behind the chalk.
Little Guy: You still havent answered the question I raised to you in my last post. Maybe then we can have a more enlightened discussion...?
CJ ALERT*CJ ALERT*CJ ALERT*CJ ALERT
Did anyone see how far Papi Chullo was bet down yesterday? I do not know, as I didnt have a morning line to look at but the guy on tv said he had been bet down a lot.
He was 4-1 w/ about 9 minutes to post and then was 5-1 at post time.
You dont suppose they are using CJ's figures at Gulfstream too?
JPinMaryland
03-08-2005, 04:14 PM
Oh, when I said "whatever" it was in no way meant as an insult. The one guy said that CJ's figs pointed at High Fly for sure but CJ had Papi. In my own mind it seemed that High Fly was obvious.
So I did not understand if CJ was going for Papi based on other, non speed fig., reasons. Obviously most handicappers use other factors. Cj seemed to suggest that his pick was based on his speed figs. the other guy said the figs suggest High Fly. So my comment was....uhhh? huh????
Just wondering.
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