Gulfstream main unfair

[how cliche]

Every horse at Gulfstream wins by three or more. However, I think It's much more indicative of the nature of the surface than the dominance of the winners. At another track these blowout winners might not even win at all. The track is ridiculously unfair to horses rallying late, and even more absurdly benificial to those in the lead w/ any momentum as they straighten out for the run home. I get sick of watching races there. I refuse to bet it. Seemingly never is there a race where in mid stretch any one of five can win it and it sorts itself out late. I've seen it get sorted on the turn for home, but not in deep stretch. Occasionally there will be two horses fighting through the lane to win and they're 7 clear of the third horse at the wire. I don't know how any horseman who handles a late runner could tolerate sending their charge to that place. East coasters constantly belittle Santa Anita for being a "paved highway". It's 10 times fairer than Gulfstream Park. Just my opinion.

[Buddha]

East coasters constantly belittle Santa Anita for being a "paved highway".

Anymore, SA is belittled for their 5 horse fields, while most of GPs races have 10-12 starters. I havent followed GP closely this year, but when I have bet, I have been rewarded well.

[how cliche]

You just had to bring up the short fields thing didn'tcha. You're correct on that level though. Average field size is less than 8 per race.

All I'm saying is you can handicap a race a GP and if you can figure who will be in the lead turning for home, you've likely found the open length "dominating" winner. For example, in today's nightcap there was a horse who I figured was gonna be in the lead after 6f of a mile race & therefore I thought was the likely winner solely because of her ability to be in front at that point. I didn't believe she would win on the merits of her talent, fitness, stamina or class. In fact, if it were an even remotely fair track I'd predict her to get real late and finish up the track. But I thought, 'This is Gulfstream. She'll have the lead turning for home so she should open up through the lane and win by 3.' Her name is Yankee Penny. She's nowhere near as good as the race makes her look since she opened up to win by...good gawd 10 1/2 lengths?!

It's a happy result, but please. The track super must do something to make the strip a fair and even race track.

[ratpack]

I was listening to a Jason Levin show and they were saying how horses at GS were exploding out of the stretch turn. It will be interesting to see if they make area a little deeper or slow up the straightaway, or do nothing.

[Speed Figure]

I think it's funny that GP ran 11 races today and had a total of $8,792,084 bet. SA ran 9 races and had $11,728,879. It was the same way on sat. When the weather is great in so cal bettors are betting on the races.

[ratpack]

I think it's funny that GP ran 11 races today and had a total of $8,792,084 bet. SA ran 9 races and had $11,728,879. It was the same way on sat. When the weather is great in so cal bettors are betting on the races.

I was at SA today it was sunny and 75 degrees not a bad way to spend a Sunday.

Actually I think GP handle of $8,792,084 is not that bad considering that GP had 5800 on track compared to SA having 14,700

[Speed Figure]

I was there too, we should meet up sometimes. I'll be there for Big Cap day if the weather is like it was today. :jump:

[BIG RED]

Sounds like you have niched GP. If I were you, you should be investing in this now, heavily, before something is done. If you find something to help in your betting, I wouldn't want any change, unless the prices leveled out. Then I would want the track to be 'fair'. ( As a bettor )

[kenwoodallpromos]

Maybe they only had enough water for the backstretch, since the inside turn and stretch were fast for works but slow for the races.
They need to buy my variant system to monitor the track.

[Valuist]

I think the GP meet has been very formful. Generally if you're on the best horse, you win. Maybe the bigger oval helps give horses more time to get out of possible trouble.

[delayjf]

While I am not expert on the Florida circuit. I have noticed over the years the same phenomenon at Calder that you are discribing at Gulfstream.
Once the field hits the stretch, you can stop the race, because for the most part the runners positions remain unchanged. You will also see horses winning by huge lengths when they don't figure that strongly.

This is what I've refered to on other posts, everyone complains about the short fields in SoCal, but according to the paper, there was 13 million bet at SA on Sat. Why is their signal so popular? With smaller fields and less competition for purse money, why is Socal racing in deline? At least from an owner or trainer point of view.

[betovernetcapper]

Beyer wrote about the speed favoring nature of GP as early as 1978. I think we've all had enough time to adjust. :)

[cj]

New surface though, much different than 1978. I think this surface is much fairer than the old one. Also, what's new about horses winning on dirt by large margins?

How cliche,

How did you predict a first timer to be in front in your example? Not knocking it, just curious. I think that horse is a monster, I don't think it was the track. Time will tell.

[Suff]

I was at SA today it was sunny and 75 degrees not a bad way to spend a Sunday.

Actually I think GP handle of $8,792,084 is not that bad considering that GP had 5800 on track compared to SA having 14,700

And at 12:30 eastern time GulfStream competes with Oaklawn, NYRA , TAMPA (RECORD HANDLE OF 5 MIL THIS WEEKEND)and a handfull of others. At 4:00 pm Eastern time SA competes with nothing of consequence.

[ratpack]

This is what I've refered to on other posts, everyone complains about the short fields in SoCal, but according to the paper, there was 13 million bet at SA on Sat. Why is their signal so popular? With smaller fields and less competition for purse money, why is Socal racing in deline? At least from an owner or trainer point of view.[/QUOTE]

Well a couple of points, this weekend the racing at SA was very good Avg field size on Sat was 9 and on Sun it was 8 but most of the fields were very good size wise a couple of 5 horse fields brought down the Avg.

Don't let that fool you though, Calif Racing is in a bit of trouble and I am not sure that any of the politicians have an answer. Since Sen. Ken Maddy died I don't see anyone in Sacramento looking out for horseracing the way he did.

As far as field size goes we have had lots of rain early in the month and lots of scratches so that is why we are having some nice fields right now but I am afraid that will not last long.

Next week should be good because it is Big Cap week but after that I am not sure.

[Kreed]

Calif's Short-Field problem confuses me. Don't they have a strong State Bred
program like NY? just keep them mares pregnant & in no time Calif should have
lots of runners to fill races.

[ratpack]

Calif's Short-Field problem confuses me. Don't they have a strong State Bred
program like NY? just keep them mares pregnant & in no time Calif should have
lots of runners to fill races.


I am not that familiar with Breeding Program but I believe they did Cut out some of the tax breaks, that is one of the problems. Workers Comp being another, they did just pass a bill which did address some of that issue lowering the cost of WC insurance by I think 17%.

Slots would help in raising the purse structure to bring more trainers and horses out to So. Cal to get the fields bigger. I was glancing through the Compacts that Arnold has signed with some of the Tribes and while I am no expert at reading them they don't seem to prohibit some track from having slots. All the Compacts have some sort of mileage limitation so Tracks like SA and Hol could get slots but I think that is a long shot.

[how cliche]

New surface though, much different than 1978. I think this surface is much fairer than the old one. Also, what's new about horses winning on dirt by large margins?

How cliche,

How did you predict a first timer to be in front in your example? Not knocking it, just curious. I think that horse is a monster, I don't think it was the track. Time will tell.

I don't mind you knocking it cj, cuz honestly it was another man's assessment. I have a friend who monitors that track and I in turn monitor SA & BM it's a mutually beneficial arrangement except for lately, because I have difficulty picking my nose, let alone a winner of horse race these days. He was the one who suggested to me she'd be in front after 6f, but it wasn't his reccomended call in the race. Large winning margins are somewhat normal in dirt races yes, but not every race, every day as at GP

As far as her being a monster...I'm tending to downgrade these widening dominant performances at GP. To that point, is Sun King really that much improved over his 2yo season or did the nature of the track artificially move him up. I'm leaning toward the latter.

[thoroughbred]

Every horse at Gulfstream wins by three or more. However, I think It's much more indicative of the nature of the surface than the dominance of the winners. At another track these blowout winners might not even win at all. The track is ridiculously unfair to horses rallying late, and even more absurdly benificial to those in the lead w/ any momentum as they straighten out for the run home. I get sick of watching races there. I refuse to bet it. Seemingly never is there a race where in mid stretch any one of five can win it and it sorts itself out late. I've seen it get sorted on the turn for home, but not in deep stretch. Occasionally there will be two horses fighting through the lane to win and they're 7 clear of the third horse at the wire. I don't know how any horseman who handles a late runner could tolerate sending their charge to that place. East coasters constantly belittle Santa Anita for being a "paved highway". It's 10 times fairer than Gulfstream Park. Just my opinion.

How Cliche,

Your observation, and some others, have helped answer the question that I posed earlier here. I asked if anyone had noticed anything strange about Gulfstream. I asked that, because on February 9th, many races were won by just choosing the horse with the highest Form Rating.

It was only later that I learned that the track surface was changed.

I guess I'm now suggesting that rather than your giving up on the track, there may, possibly, be opportunity here.

[Brian Flewwelling]

... The track is ridiculously unfair to horses rallying late, and even more absurdly benificial to those in the lead w/ any momentum as they straighten out for the run home. ....

Tell me again what the problem is. Just find the horse that gets to the stretch first, then bet with both hands.

A couple years ago at Northlands Park (Edmonton) all you needed was who gets the rail on the first turn (5 fur bull-ring). I loved it, only time i made any money at the windows. They fixed the track, darn-it!

Fleww

[BIG RED]

That's what I said earlier to cliche, take advantage of it now! That was to all PA members.

[AQUEBUCKS]

Are you guys referring to the John Peace/Rusty Arnold- I mean George Weaver firster? For years Mr. Peace has been popping with his firsters. The horse had a good steady stream of PBD works. I was very surprized that he went off 16-1. All the figure horses ran 2nd/3rd/4th though.


Aquebucks