E-HorseArbitrage

[PaceAdvantage]

I know I've posted about this before, but I'll do it again...anybody ever try this program/service at http://www.toteboard-daytrader.com ??

I must admit, this kind of application intriuges me greatly, but is it at all effective???


==PA

[stretchrun]

I signed up and tried this service over three days last week. First, as far as the actual functionality goes, it works as advertised. So for those who are intrigued by the idea of using tote activity to provide insight to a race, this service is a good place to start.

However, it also showed me how efficient the betting market is in horse racing and how difficult it would be to actually use this information in a more than theoretical way. I'm personally capable of passing race after race waiting for an advantage, but only because I have an expectation, based on my past experience, that an opportunity will come by in a reasonble amount of time. I don't have that same expectation watching tote action so boredom and frustration would set in quick.

I found the most intriguing feature to be the comparison between actual win odds to an expected win odds based on the exacta price.

But to me the better approach remains comparing your own odds to the toteboard and this service would be more useful if it would help do that.

Mike

[rrbauer]

Mike wrote:
I found the most intriguing feature to be the comparison between actual win odds to an expected win odds based on the exacta price.

But to me the better approach remains comparing your own odds to the toteboard and this service would be more useful if it would help do that.

A couple comments:
When you consider that the takeout in the exacta pools is a third or more, than the takeout in the win pool, it's going to be hard to ever find a win-bet, via the exacta pool; especially, in the big-pool circuits.

Mike's idea of doing an odds' comparison is valid. But, you don't need the subject service to accomplish that. If you're making the effort to develop your own odds' line, then convert your odds' line to percentages and normalize to 1.0. This makes your odds' line a probability line. Multiply each probability against the corresponding betting return being offered on the tote board (less the $2 bet) and choose the one(s) with the highest positive expected value.

A word of caution: This approach is only as good as your odds' line!

[sligg]

It does sound interesting but some of the problems may be implementing this into a smooth working operation in sync with an online betting agent. Because this is a dynamic system, one would have to act quickly in making the determination on what to bet then switching screens to make the bet. You would probably have to allow 2-3 minutes or maybe 1-2 minutes to do all this but when you are in the bet mode the tote can change dramatically by late large money being bet. What might have been an advantage may disappear. As I see it, this is probably an extension of Dr. Ziemba's work with inefficient markets in the place, show, exacta pools.

If you go this route there is another site that sells a hand held computer or a software program that is specifically for Dr. Z.

www.hypernormal.com

These programs may work if you are interested in the small returns of Ziemba. The idea appeals to me but I'm not sure if the expense is worth it. If you are doing it for fun, it's too expensive. If you are looking to make serious money you would have to bet large bets and at smaller tracks this would impact the place and show pools.

It's a catch 22 dilemna.

We all need more input on the functionality and practicality of the Dr. Ziemba methodology.