PAR TIMES/TRACK TO TRACK

[pandy]

Does anyone have any feedback on available par times, such as Horse St Pars, and/or track-to-track adjustments? I'm mainly interested in the track-to-track adjustments. I used a combination of Pines and my own pars when creating current Diamond System configurations, but I'm thinking of trying soemthing new for a new DRF FORUMULATOR version we're working on. I always liked Schwartz's pars when I purchased them years ago. Any feedback will be appreciated.

[Tom]

Dave's par are very good. I have used them for several years and have no complaints.

[Maxspa]

Pandy,
I believe that Ken Massa-HTR-leader has developed an SOR rating instead of a strictly par approach. SOR stands for strength of race. Perhaps Andicap, Tom or Donnie will chip in with the details. You might find this approach interesting.
Maxspa

[andicap]

I'll second the endorsement of Dave's pars. He is extremely meticulous in putting them together. They may not be perfect but they are the best there are available.

[Kreed]

Yes, T 2 T adjustments are VERY important and very tricky to make. (I got
very lucky and was given them and also shown how this guy accomplished
doing it. Trust me, what looks easy IS NOT.) What I would like to know is
does ANY program show/tell you the TRACK VARIANT?

[Tom]

Derek, it looks like PaceAppraiser by Randy Giles converst BRIS, Beyer, or ITS figures to a Quirin-like number and shows you what the variant for that race was.
http://www.paceappraiser.com/images/dailydata.jpg

[cj]

Anyone who knows what a variant is should be able to figure out how to extract it from the speed figure, its rather easy.

[kitts]

I have been pleased with the Par Times compiled by Cynthia Publishing which I use in All-In-One V6. Their standalone pars are good as well with pages of additional information and their WMF figures.

[andicap]

I don't do this, but wouldn't it be a simple matter to extract the Beyer variants by using a Beyer speed chart and compare the figures in the PPs (or Simulcast Weekly) to the Beyer chart. Wouldn't the difference equal the variant.
E.G. winning horse to 10K claimer at 6f gets 86 -- it's an 80 on the chart.
6 pts equals about 3 lengths at 6f with Beyer, right?

[cj]

Andi,

For the most part you are right, though not every distance at every track follows the Beyer charts.

[thelyingthief]

im bemused that cj alludes to the technique but does not share it. i believe Mitchell describes it in Common Sense Handicapping...

[cj]

I'm not sure what you are getting at, its very simple. You take the Beyer Speed Charts from his most recent book, I forget the name. You look at the Beyer Speed Figure assigned to the horse. You add the points from the beaten lengths chart that the horse finished behind. For example, if a horse was given an 80 Beyer Speed Figure, raced 6f, and was beaten two lengths, you add 5 per the beaten lengths chart to get a Beyer of 85 for the first place finisher of the race.

Now, you look at the time of the race. Let's say it was 1:10. You consult the chart, and you see a 1:10 is equal to a BSF of 100. So, the race was ran in a raw 100 figure, the Beyer assigned was 85, thus the variant is +15, or 15 fast. There is nothing hard about it, I don't have some deep dark secret.

The work comes in finding the tracks that don't correspond directly to the Beyer chart. Pimlico 6f races are upgraded a bit because they have virtually no run up. Churchill races are downgraded some because they have a very long run up. The races are almost 6 1/4 furlongs. Finding these takes a lot of work, but I'd be happy to share if anyone is really interested. I could make a spreadsheet or something.

[Big Bill]

cj,

You wrote:

The work comes in finding the tracks that don't correspond directly to the Beyer chart. Finding these takes a lot of work, but I'd be happy to share if anyone is really interested. I could make a spreadsheet or something.

If enough others express an interest and you do make the info available in spreadsheet (Excell) form, I would be appreciative of receiving it.

Big Bill - bwb900@cox.net

[andicap]

CJ,
So if the variant is +15 Beyer, you then divide that by 2.2 (?) to get the number of lengths it was fast? In this case, about 7 lengths?

If you then want to adjust a velocity-based time, like AP, the value of the seven lengths would depend on the final time since the value of a length in AP varies with the speed of the race. (roughly around .14 for a length).

Am I correct in any of this?

The one problem is you can't automatically take half of the variant (or 2/3, etc.) for the pace times because of wind/track factors.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I use what I consider to be the only true standard for comparisons of time for day to day or track to track, but very few think it is a sane idea; so Beyer is the next best idea for a par/variant for the day.
I guess if you had Beyers daily variant numbers had a way to adjust track to track it would be decent, but I know of no way to get accurate track to track adjustments since my method is not on the market.
Do the best you can and good luck to you.

[cj]

CJ,
So if the variant is +15 Beyer, you then divide that by 2.2 (?) to get the number of lengths it was fast? In this case, about 7 lengths?

If you then want to adjust a velocity-based time, like AP, the value of the seven lengths would depend on the final time since the value of a length in AP varies with the speed of the race. (roughly around .14 for a length).

Am I correct in any of this?

The one problem is you can't automatically take half of the variant (or 2/3, etc.) for the pace times because of wind/track factors.

I don't remember the exact values, but 2.2 sounds about right. So yes, you have it right.

And about the pace, you absolutely have it right. Even with no wind or other track factors, the variant would be +15 at all the calls, though of course in lengths this would be less. Depends on how you measure.

[cj]

...but I know of no way to get accurate track to track adjustments since my method is not on the market.
Do the best you can and good luck to you.

Thanks, we'll try.... :cool:

[cj]

cj,

You wrote:

The work comes in finding the tracks that don't correspond directly to the Beyer chart. Finding these takes a lot of work, but I'd be happy to share if anyone is really interested. I could make a spreadsheet or something.

If enough others express an interest and you do make the info available in spreadsheet (Excell) form, I would be appreciative of receiving it.

Big Bill - bwb900@cox.net

I'll get it put together and post tonight in a new thread.

[Joe Conte]

PANDY - I need my house painted; can you drop by with a ladder and brush and a bucket of white latex? - Joe Conte

[pandy]

You still live in that old house?

[silvercharm1]

I think you have a nice house Joe.

[silvercharm1]

I use this way as a track variant, 15-17 no adjustments for west coast tracks, and 18-20 no adjustments for east coast tracks. Example 80-16 on a west coast track is an 80 rate, an 77-19 on an east coast track is a 77 rate.

[Joe Conte]

Pandy old boy, as houses go, 43 years is not considered old. Indeed, it wouldn't even be proper to consider a 43-year-old human being as "old." So...for you to call my house "old" is actually a misnomer on your part. More than that, it is an impertinence to describe my beloved domicile in such degrading terms. So now the question becomes, "Why was he motivated to do it?" I think I know the answer...but I would like to hear what you think. I would also like to thank SilverCharm for defending the quality of my home, now valued in excess of $325,000.00. - Vertex

[Joe Conte]

Are you talking about DRF variants?

[JackS]

I think it was Mitchell that suggested that the variant must be divided into the 3 parts of the race (early ,mid, late) with the late getting half of the total. A TV of 15 would receive 7 or 8 point adjustment, with the remainder divided among the first call and second fraction. The reasoning here, was that the effect of the TV would be come much more obvious as the race progressed but that the eariler parts of the race can't be ignored..
I dont' remember the formula but was wondering if anyone here has tried this concept and if you have, are you (or were you )satisfied or dis-satisfied?

[Joe Conte]

Good question, JackS (jackass?) but remember the Ragozin principle: Final time is a function of pace and vice/versa. Thus a slow pace (due to '"time-lag" )equals a slow final time, and a fast pace SETS UP a fast final time. Thus pace is largely redundant, for in the end it shows up in the final time (with only a few occasional exceptions) and therefore one needn't bother with it (as of course the Ragozin Sheets do NOT...a procedure with which I completely concur, having satisfied myself through extended research that he is absolutely, this Harvard grad/Marxist genius--correct in most things EXCEPT his politics!) - So, the variant, splitting it in 1/3rds would be something that only a FIGURE FILBERT (that's a nut, by the way) such as Bob Pandolfo (the infamous "Pandy" ) would want to involce himself in. Bottom line: Run for the hills when analysts resort to such practices! (Mike Harper: Your take on all this, please. Pandy, keep out of this, and defer to your more experienced elders!) There's more to say, but I'll halt here.

[Joe Conte]

OH, and the mortgage is all paid off.

[JackS]

Joe- Geez, Glad I asked this question on a forum. I have the feeling I could have easily received some corporal punishment had it been face-to-face. I assume not a real ass kickin' but more of a punch to the shoulder or a limp slap on the cheek. Now seriously, again I ask, "has anyone used such a method"? PS, Don't let Joe intimadate you. If you have , admit it. Be a man. Standup for your constitutional rights and your personal beliefs.
Let's all rise now for our National Anthem, hand over heart, and some bravado in our voices.

[Joe Conte]

Hey Jackass, I like your stagey but self-effacing sense of humor and think that you and I are going to get along famously in the days and weeks to come. Meanwhile, would you care to dip into tomorrow's Aqueduct (Sat.) card a little bit...or do you perhaps have other fish to fry?

[JackS]

Joe- You can call me "J". You can call me "Jay". Call me "JS" or call me Jack. Don't call me jackass.

[Joe Conte]

Sorry, Jack, you're right! Meant no disrespect. Just tryin" to be a little lighthearted, but you were right to sdet me straight.

[andicap]

Joe/Jack
You never know when a handle will bite you back. :)
I was editor of a publication called Cable World and started a hotmail account to attract job applications. I abbreviated it so it would stand for Cable World Human Resoures in NY. cwhrny.
All my colleagues with dirty minds started calling me "Cable World Horny."

[Joe Conte]

Right on ANDI...and I hope Jack is :D

[Tom]

Just ask any assistant manager of anything anywhere. :D

[Joe Conte]

Tom, what the hell are you talkin' about?

[Joe Conte]

Pandy: your inquiry has been stuck at 34 blogs for almost a week! Now I'll make it #35 and say this: You are dead on your feet or--at best, in a sleepwalk. :D

[PaceAdvantage]

Is there some inside joke I'm missing?

[freeneasy]

iam missing it too