Breakage Rant

[pmd62ndst]

A little while ago, I had stated that I like to wager place bets on favorites which caused a small debate on whether that angle was legitimate or if I was just crazy. One person responded to me that they don't make place bets on favorites because the breakage percentage on low payoffs is so high, it's where all the profits go. Today, I found a great example of that:

2/25/2005 - Bay Meadows: Race 4.

Place Pool: $29,761

Results (Place Amounts):
4. Jewels of Bagdad ($9,415)
6. Thrilling Victory ($6,345)

According to Bris.com's takeout chart, Bay Meadow's Place takeout is 15.43%

So before breakage (if my math is correct), the place payoff for Jewels of Bagdad should be $2.99935. Of course, after breakage, the payoff was $2.80.

That means breakage took nearly 20% of my winnings. Unreal.

Need to rethink this angle.

/pissed

PMD

[Overlay]

The worst case with dime breakage would be a possible $2.3999... payoff rounded down to $2.20, which reduces the original return by 50%. I remind myself of disadvantages like that, and also of the inevitability of bets where the horse doesn't hit the board at all (and the resulting percentage of tickets that you then have to cash to make up for them and to show a profit), whenever I start thinking about taking up place or show betting as a matter of regular practice. To me, what Tom Ainslie said back in the '60's is still true: that anyone with the handicapping skill and betting discipline to show a consistent long-term profit on place and show betting could make significantly more by applying those same attributes exclusively to win betting.

[kenwoodallpromos]

:bang:
Sorry PMD: you are complaining about a Fav that won by 7 and paid $2.40 to show and $2.80 to place at BM? LOL!
Did you note the favs won 3 of the first 5?

[kenwoodallpromos]

What Tom left out was each wager is a seperate decision; in this case, WPS would all have served you well.

[ElKabong]

:bang:
Sorry PMD: you are complaining about a Fav that won by 7 and paid $2.40 to show and $2.80 to place at BM? LOL!
Did you note the favs won 3 of the first 5?

Just going from memory here, tonite at shammy the faves won 4 of the first 5 or 6 races. Some nites are like that...frustrating.

[Zman179]

:bang:
Sorry PMD: you are complaining about a Fav that won by 7 and paid $2.40 to show and $2.80 to place at BM? LOL!

It's not such a laughing matter if you have say $500 to place on him. The breakage taken in that case would come to a total of a little over $47. One could pay for dinner with that.

[hurrikane]

What Tom left out was each wager is a seperate decision; in this case, WPS would all have served you well.


I'm sorry Ken, IMO, 2.40 on anything with the risks associated with racing can not serve you well.

l

[toetoe]

pmd,
Your method is fine, but don't single out the low payoffs. Losing $1.99 on breakage happens as often with a horse that pays $23.80, I'm sure. If we don't have the cojones to bet $200 on him, that doesn't change the fact that it happens all the time. You might try Pinnacle, extra .14 on every $2.00 bet. Also, in N.Y. the nickel breakage eases the pain a bit.

[Figman]

Nickel breakage in NY depends on your payoff. See Section 228 of the NY statute at www.racing.state.ny.us which in part reads..........effective after October fifteenth, nineteen hundred ninety-four breaks are hereby defined as the odd cents over any multiple of five for payoffs greater than one dollar five cents but less than five dollars, over any multiple of ten for payoffs greater than five dollars but less than twenty-five dollars, over any multiple of twenty-five for payoffs greater than twenty-five dollars but less than two hundred fifty dollars, or over any multiple of fifty for payoffs over two hundred fifty dollars.

[toetoe]

Figs,
I don't pretend to apprehend that, but isn't that just legalese for nickel breakage? Can you give me an example?

Thanks.

[kenwoodallpromos]

How much risk do you want to take to make 20% profit in 2 minutes? Put your money in a savings account and make 2% per year! LOL!
________
I would advise not betting more than $200 on place or show on large tracks, $100 on others so as not to affect payouts.
Don't bet if the pool might end up minus.

[Tom]

Yeah, but my savings account never got shuffled back or took a bad step! :D

[Figman]

toetoe -
Here is the translation that is one of the least known facts in all of racing!
Breakage in NY
1) If the dollar odds are $4.95 to 1 or LESS, then NICKEL breakage.
(two dollar payoffs of $11.80 or LESS)
2) If the dollar odds are $5.00-$24.95 to 1, then DIME breakage.
(two dollar payoffs of $12 until the payoff reaches $52)
3) If the dollar odds are $25-$249.95 to 1. then QUARTER breakage.
4) If the dollar odds are $250 to 1 or greater, the FIFTY cents breakage.

And of course, breakage is always rounded DOWN!

[kenwoodallpromos]

From the Ca Horseracing Board, Ca Business and Professions Code:
19405. "Breakage" means the odd cents by which the amount payable
on each dollar wagered exceeds a multiple of ten cents ($0.10).
You got ripped off, dude! The breakage is supposed to 10 cents! :bang: