andicap
02-23-2005, 11:37 AM
Got 2-1 online yesterday that Million Dollar Baby will win Best Picture and 9-5 that the Aviator will lose.
Aviator will NOT win. (likely to be thrown a bone in the Cinematography category and maybe for director). I might double my bet here. If they want to honor the picture, they will do it in the director category for Scorsese.
It is a two-horse race between Million and Sideways. The latter won all the critics awards, but Eastwood has all the momentum and is the type of film Hollywood really likes. Sideways might be a bit too quirky for some voters. Academy will likely give Sideways a screenplay award. Scorsese is odds to best Eastwood although I think Clint, a popular figure in Hollywood, will win at 6-5. Marginal value there since it's a two-man race.
It smells like a big sweep for Million this year with Eastwood as director, Freeman as supporting actor (although Haden Church might surprise here, but I think 3-1 is a bit too short for him) and Swank as actress (in a weak category). No value on Swank, 1-3 to win. Annette Benning is 2nd choice and she won Golden Globe. 3-1 on her. A false ovelay in my opinion.
Supporting actress is usually a surprise. Blanchet is chalk for Katherine Hepburn role in Aviator with Virginia Madsen at 3-1 as second choice in "Sideways." You get only 9-5 if you think Blanchett will be upset in that category at my site.
If you're looking for a real longshot to root for on Oscar night and your site provides it, try Sophie Okonedo for supporting actress for Hotel Rwanda. Be a way for Hollywood to support an excellent movie that few will see, but many will praise. I would demand at least 10 or even 15-1 odds tho. But there is an upset in this category more than in any other. Some people give Natalie Portman a shot for "Closer." Let the odds guide you.
Jamie Foxx is 1-15 to win Best Actor and I wouldn't bet against him for his Ray Charles portrayal.
The Incredibles is a lock to win Best animated film.
Sideways might win Adapted screenplay although Million could take it if it's a clean sweep type of night. If Million wins this award, it's a lock for best picture.
Original screenplay is tougher -- a three way race between Vera Drake, Hotel Rwanda and dark horse Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. (or is it Eternal Spotless of the Sunshine Mind). The latter has the disadvantage of being released mid-year and it's out of sight out of mind at the Oscars.
I have no clue on any of the other categories except that if you're in an office pool and "Million" is in there, use it. In clean sweep years, the big pictures take many if not most of the minor categories.
Disclaimer: I no longer work for The Hollywood Reporter so have no "expert" advice or insider knowledge. I do usually best my wife in the Oscar pool however.
Andicap in Hollywood
(not really, but it sounds good)
Aviator will NOT win. (likely to be thrown a bone in the Cinematography category and maybe for director). I might double my bet here. If they want to honor the picture, they will do it in the director category for Scorsese.
It is a two-horse race between Million and Sideways. The latter won all the critics awards, but Eastwood has all the momentum and is the type of film Hollywood really likes. Sideways might be a bit too quirky for some voters. Academy will likely give Sideways a screenplay award. Scorsese is odds to best Eastwood although I think Clint, a popular figure in Hollywood, will win at 6-5. Marginal value there since it's a two-man race.
It smells like a big sweep for Million this year with Eastwood as director, Freeman as supporting actor (although Haden Church might surprise here, but I think 3-1 is a bit too short for him) and Swank as actress (in a weak category). No value on Swank, 1-3 to win. Annette Benning is 2nd choice and she won Golden Globe. 3-1 on her. A false ovelay in my opinion.
Supporting actress is usually a surprise. Blanchet is chalk for Katherine Hepburn role in Aviator with Virginia Madsen at 3-1 as second choice in "Sideways." You get only 9-5 if you think Blanchett will be upset in that category at my site.
If you're looking for a real longshot to root for on Oscar night and your site provides it, try Sophie Okonedo for supporting actress for Hotel Rwanda. Be a way for Hollywood to support an excellent movie that few will see, but many will praise. I would demand at least 10 or even 15-1 odds tho. But there is an upset in this category more than in any other. Some people give Natalie Portman a shot for "Closer." Let the odds guide you.
Jamie Foxx is 1-15 to win Best Actor and I wouldn't bet against him for his Ray Charles portrayal.
The Incredibles is a lock to win Best animated film.
Sideways might win Adapted screenplay although Million could take it if it's a clean sweep type of night. If Million wins this award, it's a lock for best picture.
Original screenplay is tougher -- a three way race between Vera Drake, Hotel Rwanda and dark horse Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. (or is it Eternal Spotless of the Sunshine Mind). The latter has the disadvantage of being released mid-year and it's out of sight out of mind at the Oscars.
I have no clue on any of the other categories except that if you're in an office pool and "Million" is in there, use it. In clean sweep years, the big pictures take many if not most of the minor categories.
Disclaimer: I no longer work for The Hollywood Reporter so have no "expert" advice or insider knowledge. I do usually best my wife in the Oscar pool however.
Andicap in Hollywood
(not really, but it sounds good)