question for Cj's triple crown trail report

[JPinMaryland]

CJ: I see you gave CLosing argument a 100 and Going wild a 103 for the 9f races on Feb 5. They were only 4/100 sec. difference between the two times.

I think some of the algorithms you have are proprietary but if it's not too much to ask about what sort of thing account for the difference:

Did the 3 pt difference have to do with going wild's going wire to wire at a strong pace? a slower track in SA? A better field in Sham stakes? Some other?

[cj]

It would first due to the pace and final variant of the track to create the pace and speed figure. The Performance Figure is a blend of pace and speed.

[andicap]

CJ,
if the Performance Figure is a blend of pace and speed, does it "punish" closers?
If you think a race sets up for a closer, would you concentrate on the combination of the late figure and the performance figure or not use the PF at all?
(OK, I use %E, but let's talk generally here)

Also, don't you handle turf races differently?

[cj]

Hey Andi,

It is a blend of pace and speed, the blend changes according to a horse's position in the field at the first call. A horse running 9th of 10 isn't going to have much pace factored in.

Turf is different, but since this is for TC preps, I won't get into that now. :)

[JPinMaryland]

what I'm not sure I'm getting is the relevance of the horses pace number in all this, I guess the weight the handicapper is to give it varies by the...?

[cj]

JP,

The horse's pace number can have a big effect on the overall performance number if the horse runs near the front. If the horse runs towards the back, the effect is minimal on the overall number.

These are rough guides, but a horse that leads a race, and gets figures of 120 pace and 100 speed will get an overall rating of around 110.

A horse in the same race that runs 115 pace and 100 speed, but was last after the first call, might get an overall rating of 100.

In the opposite direction, a horse on the lead that wins with figures of 80 pace and 100 speed would get around a 90. A horse who was last early and dead heated with the above horse, with figures of 70 pace and 100 speed, would still get around 100.

[Blenheim]

cj,


My understanding is that Peformance Figures are created by Dr. Steve Roman, the creator of the Dosage Index. His Performance Figures can be found @ chef-de-race.com/ How do your performance figures differ?

[cj]

I really can't say, I'm only vaguely familiar with the Roman numbers.

[PaceAdvantage]

I miss your old avatar.... :(

[Suff]

yea and whats with La Oiuviallelela.???? I thought you were in Shape?

You move without notifying us?

[cj]

Hey suff,

I live there, I work at SHAPE.

PA,

I can send it to you if you like, just playing around with Photoshop.

[PaceAdvantage]

Nah CJ, I'm going to keep my Holy Bull avatar....at least you didn't respond by telling me the PA stood for "Pennsylvania" :lol:

[BIG RED]

Blenheim sounds like your neighbor, cj.