Derby Preps

[cj]

I don't see much in the way of good bets this week, but could see some interesting developments for the first Saturday in May. Arkansas Derby is very weak, I'd be surprised if any of the contestants have a say in the Derby outcome.

The Blue Grass seems interesting in that everything favors Harlan's Holiday, except that the race is at Keeneland. He is the only Derby threat in this race. If the track plays as usual favoring inside speed, he could have a Thunder Gulch looking PP line...interesting.

The Wood has the most potential for producing the Derby winner. The strange part is the surprising lack of speed entered. Could eliminate Blue Burner and Saarland from having much chance this week, but I'll be watching them in the stretch very carefully for future endeavors!!!

If Medaglia D'Oro can't win this one, I give him little shot on Derby day.

Any thoughts???


CJ

[Observer]

With the way Frankel's been going, it wouldn't surprise me to see Medaglia d'Oro win the Wood Memorial.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens with blinkers going on Nokoma. You would think, though, based on Medaglia d'Oro's last race, that he'd be cutting out the fractions with a handfull of pursuers.

Saarland did show better early speed last out, and I do think he'll be stronger, but I also think his best race is ahead of him. What I don't like about him is his lack of a quick turn-of-foot.

As for Blue Burner, I think he's got a little more tactical ability than he showed last time when breaking from the outside post of 11, and he certainly showed in the stretch that he still has some maturing to do, though it wasn't anything alarming, as was the case with Sunday Break, who needs to show he can keep his focus after nearly weaving his way to a loss in the lane last out, where he looked home free in upper stretch.

Buddha also sits on my list of "needs to mature," as his stretch run last out looked a bit awkward as well, and who knows how he'll handle a stretch confrontation.

Then, of course, there is the complete stranger .. Laissezaller .. an insteresting Kentucky-bred making his first U.S. start after returning from the sidelines with a switch to dirt, running competitively at 1 1/4 miles in his past two starts, at Lingfield, while facing older horses!

That leaves Iwin, who's coming out of Sunday Break's goofy race. Zito's runner, I think, needs a big leap forward.

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In the Blue Grass, Harlan's Holiday is the one to beat. I wonder if Booklet can recover from the Florida Derby where he dueled through impossible fractions. It does appear, though, that Bob's Image should keep him honest. I did like Azillion's race in the Spiral, and think he's improving at the right time, to at least be a factor here, if not also in Kentucky. Gotta love that Irish pedigree!
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As for the Arkansas Derby .. pin the program up to the wall and throw a dart!! :D