TMM at AQU for Saturday

[cato]

Saturday at AQU...hmm look for horses tah like cold weather...


Race 1--I was goingto pass but the top rated horse (#8) was scratched, moving up #5 (Teddy) up to the top rated horse at 15-1 ml. Theres a lot not to like aout him and I fear the sprinters stretching out, but I may lace a small bet on him to win and then use in the bottom of the exotics with the others. And I'll have an all cat exacta for my wife (teddy cat and queen of the cats) (hey, this is free)

Race 2-pass--since the next three races will be a pass, time to catch up on beer drinking or do the entries for the brisbet contest. Act interested in whatever your wife is doing.

Race 3-pass--6 horse field and three ofthe horses ar 8-5. 2-1 and 3-1 ml and they look legit. el paso

race 4--mostly FTS. pass

race 5--I was all over this race but my 2 keys scratched (#1 and 2). Pass

race 6- pass--4 horses with tight rankings, no great odds and no compelling pace scenario

race 7-- #9 is sole vtr, #1 ppf and a 3 point gap.
#1 is teh fulcrum and #2ppf. #1 and 9 are tied at low odds

I'm normally not that interested in a 3 point gap, but I've just passed 5 races ina row and I'm starting to twitch just typing the word pass. I will probably key 1 and 9 in some exotics

race 8-- 6 furlongs, heavy pressure. $75,000 "stakes" race
Note the #9 is the 8-5 ml favorite and is still a maiden (not that there is anything wrong with that). He has some blazing times out of california, but at 8-5 I'm betting he will be shocked at the slow track and fade...
Even though its a HP race, I like #5 to carry his speed. I'll couple with #2, a horse that can close, as well as #4 (odds) and #1 (good horse). I'll also box 2-4 and 2-1.
ALl of this depends on the odds as 5 and 1 will probably be low odds. This could be a pass.

race 9. 8.5 furlongs. Lone E is #10 Hurricane Erica, coming off a msw win on her 10th try. Butis she really a lone e? Always have to check. There are 4 other horses with e or ep ratings. That normaly means a false lone e rating. But looking at the other 4 horses, they do not appear all that strong early so at least I but that the race could set up eraly and that #10 is a contender.

Did I say this is really a crappy field for an NW1 allowance race? (it is)

#11 is rated 1st ppf and has a 4 point gap to #10 (3-1 ml)
#10 is rated 2d in PPF and is one of 3 VTR horses. Many of the other highly rated horses are also at high odds: 11, 10 ,12, 5, 8 in that order (no fulcrum). Plus you have to consider the low odds horse that will be contenders (maybe 6, 7).

Unless the track is biased against E horse today, I will take a win bet on 10 (I assume 11 will bebet down too low) and then if I can make any better sense of the other contenders than I have in this note (probably guided by odds and a few other considerations like trainers, jockeys and such) I will, no doubt, key 11 and 10 in the exotics with the logical and some of the illogical contenders.

That's it.

I am mainly doing this because it helps me focus my otherwise scattered thoughts n handicapping. Plus if I tell the world I am goingto pass a race, I am more likely to pass that race which I think is one of the major keys to improving my handicapping.

ANd then I'm hoping to draw in the people who can really use TMM so I can learn from them, like Kingfin, Blackgold, Aquebucks, Jim and others (sorry if I left anyone out--all are welcome).

Good luck,

Cato

[kingfin66]

I see the Aqueduct card much like you do, but do have a little bit of a different take in some areas. Here goes, then we'll move on to some horse candy at GP.

1 - I was all over Two Toed Sloth. It scratched, so then I was all over Teddy Cat, OUT.

2 - Top 4 ML are top 4 rated. PASS.

3 - Short field. Lots of chalk with good ratings. Ratings are bunched. PASS.

4 - 9 horse field with 8 first time starters. PASS.

5 - Down to a 6 horse field. The favorite is dropping fr Alw43000n1x to C16000 off one 1 race. What gives? A fire sale? That is, in my opinion, a suspicious class drop. #3 is a 2-gap, 1 of 2 VTR, has good odds line balance and the correct style for the race. All of this looks very good, except for the favorite. My take here is that there is a win bet, but only if the favorite gets hammered very, very hard. I am confident that it will. This race is ugly, but does have a value play.

6 - Two horses, 2 and 6, have a 6-gap edge on the field. 6 has poor odds line balance, while 2 had good odds line balance, is 1 of 2 VTR, and has that 6-gap. The EP style doesn't match up all that well with the pace of the race, but the recent running lines do show an ability to rate. I'm leaning toward the 2.

7 - I originally had this race as a PASS, but decided to take another look after reading Cato's analysis. I too like the 9 but it will likely be bet too much. An easy exacta box may be 1/9. 1 likes to win while 9 likes to finish second. My guess is that this race will end up being a PASS for me.

8 - I can't make a very good call here with so many sprinters stretching out. There is also no separation among the top 3. PASS.

9 - Finally, a betting race. I am sorting using turf ratings. I also agree that there is a pressured pace scenario more that there is a Lone-E. I have the 12, Dearest Heart as a 10-gap at double digit ML. This is a nice key and win bet for me. Also consider that it is going turf to dirt, yeah, yeah long layoff. She will either run, or not. For exotics, consider including 5, 6, 10 and 11, and anything else that looks live.


Now for GP, but I will have to hurry since race 2 is going soon and that is one of them.

GP-2 // #5. 2-gap PBS, from Crc. I am sorting by PBS...the only real adjustment issue concerns #1 which has its top PBS ratings from 5f races at Bel and WO. It is a lone VTR, and is taking decent action.

[kingfin66]

Wanted to get the first reply out there before GP 2 ran.

GP-7 // Oh my goodness, this looks like a NICE betting race. First of all, I love the 12. It is coming off a layoff and I'm using the big turf PPF. This gives it a 5-gap over the field at 15/1. Possibilities abound. I really like that the favorite is stretching out for the first time, making it vulnerable in my mind. The 11 also has a big PPF and it is from the dirt to boot. 11 and 12 are the only VTRs in the race. I might just bet them both to win, but if I have to choose, I'm going with the 12.

Tread carefully with the exotics. This is a big field and there are two unknowns - a first time starter and a first time U.S. runner that is also going on dirt for the first time. It's hard to put them in, and even harder to leave them out. I may just forego the exotics and pull a Slim Pickens (ride the bomb baby!) as some Saturday entertainment.


How about Oaklawn?

I couldn't find much at all at OP today.

OP-7 // #8 is coming off a piss-poor sprint effort in a 5f stakes race. I am quite willing to overlook this dismal effort as it was off a layoff and came in a 5f race ad Ded. #8 has a 4-gap over the next horse, the right running style for the race, is second off the layoff after showing some speed. The odds line balance isn't great and it isn't a VTR, but I'm willing to incur risk if, The Price is Right.

[kingfin66]

Aqueduct 6 - I'm passing it.

[kingfin66]

Aqueduct 6 - I'm passing it.

#!#$#&@*! :bang: :bang:

[cato]

I was hoping you had that. As you are releasing your frustration (what a game) talk to me about using the turf lines. In know MPs position but I found them putting me on a lot of high-odds dogs that ran up the track. And I normally now don;t use them. BUT I also see where they come in, which is also frustrating. What is your analysis?

DO you always use them? Use them only if the horse has some other evidence that backs up the high turf rating? Etc.

(and good call, by the way, even if you did pass--good handicapping)

Cato

[kingfin66]

Cato,

Here is my evolution of using/not using turf lines in dirt races. The first time I ever heard of this (@ the Quantum Leap seminar), I thought WTF! It is a very contrarian, price oriented play. My feeling for a long time has been, hell no I'm not going to do that. Most TMMers seem to feel that way.

Lately, however, I have been revisiting the concept of this expert protocol. What I have found is that it gives me the separation that I am looking for...the gaps. What I will typically do is check to see which horses using or not using turf lines will hurt or help and then act accordingly.

If I made one mistake in race 9 it was not taking the aberrancy check off.

[cato]

KINgfin--I'm glad you did GP. AFter your post I looked at today's card and focused on the 8th race. TMM liked 6 and 8 and I thought you had to included and respect 1A and 5 (foreign).

The only problem was that I had been battered about the head and shoulders today so did not bet enough money. BUt did have the winner, exacta (1 time only) and the $1 tri (once) to pull a little ahead for the day. WHew.

As always in retrospect should have had all those things multiple times. It's all clear after the races...

Cheers, Cato

[kingfin66]

You are braver than me jumping into a race like that. Definitely an ugly race. I never would have been able to choose the winner from among the top 3. Did you dutch the 6 and 8?

Catching the exotics is nice. It's too bad the 1a and 5 weren't paying better, that might have got me in. If you only had to put a little $ down to catch, so much the better. That was a nice tri catch. I'll try to look at GP and Big A again tomorrow.

I will also try to go ahead and bet ALL of my horses. By the way, the reason I passed the 2 in the 6th was because I committed a cardinal sin. I started overanalyzing the internals. Instead of going with my original analysis and making the bet, I stupidly started telling myself that the horse had much slower internals than Consecrate (a horse I truly despise) and others. I also looked at the class (why oh why?) and had a question about the move. So basically, by violating the HM methodology, I cost myself $ but learned a valuable lesson.

Finally, I didn't get to address the turf line issue as much as I had planned (parental duty called). MP uses turf lines in any race where PPF is the preferred rating. This means that if he elects to use PPF in a neutral 6f race, he will use turf lines. This is a little much for me. First of all, there is the issue of using PPF for neutral short sprints at certain tracks (speed favoring tracks). I don't like to use PPF for these races unless it can put me on a very good play.

Now pressured races are a different matter. MP has stated, and I have been observing, more anecdotally than empirically mind you, that horses with good turf internals will run like S horses in pressured dirt sprints. Interesting.

The bottom line is, when you're talking about making a win bet, you want certain things to line up right; gapped rating, 1/2 VTR, Value Tech and Contention line balance, correct running style for the race, a beatable favorite, etc. If the turf line exposes a horse that doesn't have enough going for it to satisfy you, don't bet it. In the case of #12 in the 9th at Aqueduct, I liked the big gap, the running style lined up okay, it was the lone VTR, and the favorite didn't scare me. It was lacking in odds line balance.

The thing that I didn't catch until after the race was that while TMM gave the 12 a 24 PPF, backed up by and 18, it didn't give the 6 horse its 22, backed up by a 15. Usually, I click aberrancy off, especially for maiden races. I still think the turf line was the right play here.

Anyway, you might play around with the lines a little bit even if you don't feel good about betting it.

Take care.

I'll try to put something here tomorrow it you don't beat me to it ;)