Random TMM for Friday

[cato]

AQU--Ugh

Nothing interesting in races 1-5
Race 6. #6 Vote of Confidence
Fulcrum, sole VTR (overlay)
decent last race ratings (though SLow pace)

Race 7-nope
race 8--Heavily pressured
#8 is one of the better closers and is 12-1 ml
fulcrum #7
If you believe the speed will collapse then this race has some opportunity. The speed looks pretty good to me and I think the race will go to whoever guts it out on the lead--probably #3, but I'll pass

Race 9 pass

more later

Cheers, Cato

[cato]

SO I see that posting from my desk while eating lunch and tryingto work and handicap is not all that helpful--basically said nothing looks good--except #6 in the 6th and he/she/it sucked--predictable (now) based on slow pace in last race.

How about Gulfstream?

nothing looks very interestting there either, except
race 7--#7 (6-1 ml) off of a dominant maiden win. If odds stay up I'll bet especially since the #4 scracthed

race 8--has a bunch of potential high odds competitive horses.
TMM has ranked in this order
horse # odds
2 12
1 8
5 12
7 12
8 7-2
10 12

though not rated hihly, the #6 caught my eye--an import that has a wwin at BEL and a good race at SA. I'll include in exotics at 6-1 ml

sometimes this means that the race is so screwed up there is no way to handicap and other times it converst to $. Sadly I don;t have a form or access to the TMM program at work so I don't have the opportunity to make any calls on the race. but look for value if you play

race 9-vulnerable favorite alert. The ml favorite, #1 has been off for 15 months

cato

[cato]

and finally, I had a chnace to glance at a few races quickly at Oaklawn

race 3. #4 Swamper off 9 months, came back to win in the slop, up in class high odds. wild and crazy selection

race 5 -seriously vulnerable ml favorite

#7 -- he has not won in his pps but is still the ml favorite...hmm

good luck...cato

[cato]

Well I should not have posted becuase I really did not have time to adequately deal with the races, but here are results in the interests of full disclosure:

AQU 6th--#6 ran 4th a mere 17 lengths back

AQU 8th--both potential picks scratched-PASS

GP 7th--horse faded to 4th and was mugged in the stretch (still would have lost)

GP 8th-no bet--PASS

OP 3rd race--#4 places and pays $7.00

3 bets...4th, 4th and 2d ($7). Had I been more disciplined there would have been no bets--nothing really stood out in quality or value

Take care, Cato

[kingfin66]

Well I should not have posted becuase I really did not have time to adequately deal with the races, but here are results in the interests of full disclosure:

AQU 6th--#6 ran 4th a mere 17 lengths back

AQU 8th--both potential picks scratched-PASS

GP 7th--horse faded to 4th and was mugged in the stretch (still would have lost)

GP 8th-no bet--PASS

OP 3rd race--#4 places and pays $7.00

3 bets...4th, 4th and 2d ($7). Had I been more disciplined there would have been no bets--nothing really stood out in quality or value

Take care, Cato

You won't believe this Cato, but I played the ML favorite in the 9th at GP. It ended up going off at 9/2. I even used that old rating that gave it the 13 PPF. Using turf lines, it had the second rating. Using dirt only it was a 5 gap. What shocked me was that the public let it go off that high with Bailey riding. Of course, if the odds were lower, I would have said that the layoff was too long :)

The one that got away was the #7 in the 4th at GP. It finished second at 9/1.


The thing I didn't like at GP, race 8 was that the top 4 rated horses were all S horses in a neutral race. I couldn't find one worth keying so I passed.

Thanks for posting the selections. It's always nice to see how a fellow TMMer makes calls on races.

[cato]

Good work with playeing the ML favorite in the 9th at GP. When I was going through my results and saw what it paid, I was like, gee, suddenly those ratings are good and the bet was a decent bet...

I like MPs approcah to these things--ask the question: who will pay me?
Take care, Cato