Outstanding Stats on Sam Houston 15/1 Longshot 2/17

[Turfday]

My Turfday.com database brought up some very interesting stats on a 15/1 longshot running tonight in the 7th at Sam Houston today.

First, I know NOTHING about the horse. I don't have PP's on hand. It's a restricted (non-winners of three) $15,000 claimer.

Name of horse is Princeton Avenue, a 6-year-old.

My stats indicate that trainer Paul H. Murphy is a terrific turf trainer, (43 / 199 = 22% last three years) and very good with longshots on the grass.

And my stats indicate jockey Terry Stanton is an excellent turf jockey with a very high value Betting Value Average so he's particularly good with turf longshots.

Also interesting is that Murphy's record at Sam Houston in the last three years is 14/81.....a respectable 17%. But included in that stat, he is 7/26 on turf...27%. So half of Murphy's 14 wins at Sam Houston in the last three years have been on the grass. But none of them have come with Stanton on board. As a team, Murphy and Stanton are only 1/17 together in the last three years.

[kingfin66]

Interesting and thanks for posting.

I use TMM. In TMM parlance, the horse has the top number and is gapped 4 to the next runner. It is an S horse in a neutral paced race. It is first off the layoff using a 30-day layoff filter. It is not a VTR, there are no VTR horses in the races, although it does have very strong odds and contention lines of 2/1 each. The horse is not a reverser. I believe the favorite is vulnerable here.

If you take the aberrancy filter off, you get an entirely different picture and have to make several judgment calls.

There are some serious judgment calls that have to be made in this race with a few horses going on the grass for the first time, some horses with very poor recent form, and the top runners having the wrong style for the pace scenario. I would definitely include the 4 in exotics, but would have a hard time betting the race.

The data about the connections is very interesting. It alone is worthy of strong consideration for those who use those connection factors.

[hurrikane]

just a little more info on 'connections'

Paul
>10-1 off odds 6/63
>10-1 MLO 6/123
>10-1 MLO Turf 2/43
>10-1 MLO HOU 1/24
>10-1 MLO Turf HOU 0/5

The jky is a different story. Sorry but don't have the time right now for do the jky. He hasn't done well with Paul or this horse 0/3 but he runs well in the weeds with late closers like this puppy.


not saying no or anything else. Just offering up the info...

good luck