Wed Pinny matchup at Oaklawn

[Valuist]

Race 8 Pop on Top -176 vs Penthouse Promise +156

I'm taking the +156 dog here. These two faced each other last time and Pop on Top outfinished PP by 5 lengths so a nice easy playback....wrong. Pop on Top was absolute lone speed last time; he had a race hand wrapped to him (:47 4/5) and he still couldn't get it done. Today he draws the rail, which sometimes is a detriment at OP and Wild Jim is faster out of the gate. And I can see a horse like Kip E Ah pinning Pop on Top toward the inside as they battle behind the leader. I see Pop tiring in the stretch and Penthouse Promise picking up the pieces for a minor award.

[kingfin66]

Race 8 Pop on Top -176 vs Penthouse Promise +156

I'm taking the +156 dog here. These two faced each other last time and Pop on Top outfinished PP by 5 lengths so a nice easy playback....wrong. Pop on Top was absolute lone speed last time; he had a race hand wrapped to him (:47 4/5) and he still couldn't get it done. Today he draws the rail, which sometimes is a detriment at OP and Wild Jim is faster out of the gate. And I can see a horse like Kip E Ah pinning Pop on Top toward the inside as they battle behind the leader. I see Pop tiring in the stretch and Penthouse Promise picking up the pieces for a minor award.

You're right, Wild Jim has more speed. In fact, WJ is the speed-of-speed in here. Your assessment of the race is good. The only thing I disagree with is that Pop on Top had the last race handed to him. The track condition that day was gd, which at OP, means slow.

[cj]

I have that last OP race with a race shape of 69 - 80, quite slow to the pace call. That takes track condition into account. I'd go with the dog in this one as well.

[cj]

Also, Penthouse Promise was coming off a 6 month layoff, and the race had to get him tighter while not being overly taxing.

[speedking]

Prior to reading this thread, I had Pistol Avenue and Penthouse Promise marked. Thought Pistol Ave had a good chance to move forward a bit with this race shape and run to his back numbers, CJ.

speedking

[BIG RED]

Seen this earlier. I have them 3rd & 5th, to close to make a wager. The race seems a little wide open to me, so taking dog may be right thing to do. Still can't back him with cash.

[kingfin66]

I have that last OP race with a race shape of 69 - 80, quite slow to the pace call. That takes track condition into account. I'd go with the dog in this one as well.

I definitely will defer to your numbers and stand corrected. 69-80 is sputtering.

[Valuist]

Penthouse Promise is holding steady, actually at +155 now. In most of these Pinnacle matchups, it seems like the favorite just keeps getting bet and bet more. Not so here, at least yet.

[keilan]

Oaklawn - Race 8 (Pinnacle match up race)


Is the wager is between Pop on Top -176 vs Penthouse Promise +156 on who will finish ahead of the other?

Based on odds of –176 how much would someone win if they wagered $100 on Pop on Top to finish ahead of Penthouse Promise.

Personally if I had to choose a horse without understanding the payoffs I’d go with Pop on Top. He should rate off the pace and beat Penthouse to the wire.

[BillW]

-176 -> risk $176 to win $100

[keilan]

Yikes I'd have to risk almost $1800 to win a gino. I'll pass

Thanx Bill

[BillW]

Betting 2 horse "fields" is a grind-it-out game

[Valuist]

We'll grind away as the doggie comes in by 3/4 of a length.

[kingfin66]

Thanks Valuist. That was my enterainment for the day :ThmbUp:

[speedking]

Sorry for interjecting in this thread this morning, guys. I didn't realize until tonight that you were talking about a head to head match-up. I just saw Pistol Avenue as a good play and felt that Penthouse Promise could also be there. Incidentally, The 2 horse Great Plains was bottled up through the stretch and nearly wiped out both Penthouse Promise and Pop On Top, hence the DQ. Pop On Top was in the 2 path in deep stretch while tiring, with Penthouse Promise moving up on the rail when Great Plains came in, bumping POP into Penthouse.

speedking

[Valuist]

Speedking-

Good call on the winner. I bet the matchup early and didn't get to see the race. In your opinion, who was the best horse in the race?

[speedking]

Valuist,

At 10/1, I was all over the winner, but he had a perfect trip and was all out to get up. Wild Jim put in a strong effort and really dug in gamely for second. I think he'll move forward again. Great Plains had nowhere to go while full of run and raced a bit erratically inside the 16th pole resulting in the DQ. That was first race off the layoff and he should also improve. Penthouse Promise got to the rail and saved ground throughout. Passed dead horses up the rail with a mild bid, but was no threat to the top 3, even with clear sailing. Probably needs a drop to 10k and maybe a flat mile.

speedking