Anyone tried Pace Appraiser yet?

[andicap]

I only mention this program because of its author, Randy Giles, who has written a bunch of stuff on pace and has unique ideas. He's popped up around her a few times and to his credit has not advertised his program a whole lot.
it's at paceappraiser.com

[Maxspa]

Andy,
There's a lot of quality in the work that Randy Giles completes. His Optimal Pace Model has shown quite few double digit winners in the past and I give thanks to Tom on this board who first introduced me to this idea. Now he has come up with the Pace Appraiser that fine tunes the numbers and points out key races among other uses.
I for one could not wait for the Pace Apppraiser to become a reality. Even the example he used from Gpx on his web site pointed out the need for number clarification as opposed to Bris-All Ways numbers which I had used for that race. Clearly Randy's numbers were superior. Then came the dagger!!!
His program did not provide for a download and the numbers required manual
input. There is just no time for manual input. I have relayed this message to
Randy and he is giving some thought to adding this feature.
If he provides the download capability I'm first in the purchase line.
Maxspa

[andicap]

I wondered about that from the site -- how does it actually work?
From the site it looked like you click on the individual fractional times and input as many races per horse as you wish.
Not quite as onerous as entering the times themselves, but still somewhat time-consuming if you want to look at 3 or so races per horse. Looks like you could spend 30 minutes per card just inputting the data.

[Maxspa]

All,
I believe if enough people were interested in the download version and contacted Randy. He would do his best to come up with the new version.
Maxspa

[Maxspa]

Andicap,
I've been surfing on the web and it looks like Randy is really advertising his "Pace Appraiser". It has the top billing on Yahoo, in that his program is on top of the page and you can view several pages and it's still there.
I wish him the best, he is a real hard worker!
Maxspa

[kenwoodallpromos]

I will check out the site from time to time. It is good to hear from him.

[Diamond K]

I just got PaceAppraiser a few days ago. While it is manual entry of the pace fraction and final time it is really exciting. I do know there is an upgrade coming within a month or two at the most which will automate everything and adjustments have been made for Bris/TSN in the current version. I bought the program without knowledge of an impending upgrade.

It is ultra easy (for me) to spot a false favorite. It is also a great program to identify key races and put the contenders on a "horses to watch list". This program can identify key races in a manner no other program I am aware of can do. There are also other benefits which will in my mind be second to none when the upgrade is released and the automation kicks in.

This is a program to be used as a handicap tool and does require the user to follow Randy's general guidelines. There is no model but a case could be made to develop one. It is not in any shape or form a black box.

There is a free 10 day demo available.

[Maxspa]

Diamond K,
It is your review of software that can be meaningful to a lot of handicappers. It doesn't mean that "Pace Appraiser" or any other software will be right for any of us but it gives the potential buyer a fighting chance that this might be one of the missing pieces in his handicapping arsenal. At least I know that a race enthusiast like myself has utilized the software and I'll take a handicapper's honest evaluation anytime.
Thanks for sharing!
Maxspa

[andicap]

Can't hurt to take a look on the 10-day free trial and I might be interested after the upgrade. Giles' stuff is top-notch and it isn't expensive. Sounds like it can be used in conjunction with other stuff like CJ's figures or your favorite software.

[Partsnut]

I am using Randy's evaluation software and decided to do todays
Aqueduct card. I am submitting what my choice of pacelines and his software came up with. I used the data from ITS. I did 8 out of 9 races.
I based my picks on the softwares pace and speed numbers.
The method I use does not necessarily concur with the authors recommended use or recommendations.
I would not select as many races as I did but wanted to get a picture of what the software and my picks would do. I did not always use the last performance line. I used the line that I thought would be appropriate.
The asterisk denotes the horse recently came out of a " Hot paced race".
This does not imply that I used the last paceline.


Race 1 - #1 Sheer Silk

Race 2 - #4 Celera

Race 3 - #1 Fortunate Storm

Race 4 - No Pick

Race 5 - #1 Minor's Gold

Race 6 - #7 Em B Aye *

Race 7 - # 7 Mr, Detemined

Race 8 - #3 Hotto the touch *

Race 9 - #4 Rushing Force *

[Maxspa]

Partsnut,
IMHO, this is the best way to get to understand the new offerings that are out there. Handicappers helping handicappers! You never know when someone will express an idea or recommend a program that will turn your own approach around in a positive manner.
For example, I 'm trying to use Randy's program to narrow down the Allways Profile Summary Picks. Will it be effective? It's worth the try!
Maxspa

[Partsnut]

The program definitely has a lots of merit.
It's an excellent tool.

Randy has brought me a lot of insight into the game.
He is a player and not just a programmer. He wants you to win and his past efforts have proven that. He has written a lot of good stuff (all free).
You can find a lot of intersting material at his web site:
www.paceappraiser.com
Most of all he's is a gentleman.

Todays results were decent considering the fact that I virtually used it
without plan or purpose. It was a test run to see what does win.
I believe I have found that answer.

I had One $5.00 winner and One $ 16.00 winner out of 8 races. A plus day.
I examined the results against my contender list and found some interesting information that would have led me to the $47.00 horse in the eighth race.

Normally, I bet to win and qualify my picks by their post time odds, looking for the value. Today was a research day so I let it rip. :rolleyes:

[andicap]

Any plus day has to be considered very positive. Of course it's just one day, but I would say a 30% profit is a very good day.

[Partsnut]

I probably would have had a better day if I would have know what I became aware of after I analyzed the results as opposed to the contenders of the eigth race.

I have attached the file with the contenders for the 8th race.
See if you come up with he proper way this race shuld have been played.

[Tom]

It would all depend on the running styles of the horses. If the two 101's are early and the 105 is early, I look for the 105 to wire the field or the 99-81l to rally to win. If either of the 101's is a presser, I am interested.
But I like working with that kind of figures.

[Diamond K]

Randy Giles states the principle of the program is the “Pace Inversion Relationship”. He goes on to say “Final Time is affected by Pace Velocity---an Inverse Relationship”. What does this mean? I would like to hear direct from Randy but this is a chance to put forth my thoughts for consideration. I must be brief and skim the surface. The Pace figures and Speed figures are assumed correct as determined by Randy. When I discuss Speed and Pace please keep in mind that their numeric values are taken into consideration.

I believe Pace and Speed are abstract in theory. Pace has an abstract relationship to speed and speed is dependent on pace…..the key word here being Dependency. Also the higher level Pace must force the lower level Speed to change. Pace is highly dependent on decision. Each is an object. Each of these objects are inverted. They are in opposition to each other but work in a relationship to each other with a certain amount of Resistance which is caused by speed. I use Opposition and argue DNA can be turned around and run in a direction opposite to it’s normal direction. Such is the relationship between the numeric figures of Pace and Speed, whether they be CJ’s figures, Dave Schwartz composites, Beyer’s numbers etc..

The higher level Pace forces the low level Speed to change. There becomes a ‘degree of separation’. For simplicity I will term this degree of separation ‘gap’. The high level pace does not depend on the low level speed, however the low level Speed has a Dependency on Pace. Each is yet independent of the other. There is a Resistance on the part of Speed, which resistance does or does not lessen the numeric gap between these two objects. So by Pace and Speed inverting the dependencies the end result is a horse which is more mobile, flexible and durable dependent on the gap between the two values and possible the smaller the gap the more mobile, flexible and durable the horse shall perform.

This brings me to the 8th Race at AQU and figures and enlightening thought of Partsnut and his figures taken from the screen in the program: All figures are adjusted by the program. Following are Partsnut’s figures.

I am very sorry but I just don’t know how to copy and paste his figures here. Please look at his table in this listing above.

I mentioned that Speed can cause Resistance. The 3 Horse Hottothetouch has a Fast 5 with Pace 105 and Speed 77. There is a separation which I termed a Gap of 28 between the 105 and 77 (105-77), and when the Pace and Speed are averaged (105+77 /2), the gap reflects an adjusted overall figure of 91 and true gap of 14 when averaged. The seemingly fastest Pace horse in the field had little Speed Resistance and ended up with a low Speed figure of 77. Can this mean that the larger the gap the poorer the horse may perform? This in my mind could be reflection of current form coming out of the Fast 5 race which is considered a “key race”. The two horses with the smallest true Gap (9) are the 1 and 2 horses which came in 2nd and 3rd. The smallest gap of 9 which both horses exhibited resulted in the smallest Resistance to Speed and they finished on the board. Again looking at my thought of Resistance on the part of Speed, there are 2 horses that have a Fast 1 and each has a Pace figure of 101. However the Speed figure on the 2 Horse Pavo reflects a Gap of 9 whereas the 4 horse Distinctive Trick has a Gap of 9.5 and a resultant slower Speed of 82. I have no idea at this point what a difference, if any, a figure of .5 in average pace/speed would reflect. The 4 won in spite of the slower average of 0.5. Interesting is the fact that the horse I believe to be out of form didn’t run his race and the 1 horse with an average of 90 was up for show. Interesting also is the fact that the top average Pace/Speed finished 1-2. The average pace/speed figures of the contenders are as follows:

1. Gap 9 Average Pace/Speed 90 3rd
2. Gap 9 Average Pace/Speed 92 2nd
3. Gap 14 Average Pace/Speed 91
4. Gap 9.5 Average Pace/Speed 91.5 Won $47.40
5. Gap 10.5 Average Pace/Speed 85.5

I don’t know just how good this analysis is and am anxious to look at other races. I wrote this not to say ‘here’s how the race laid out after the results were in’ but in response to Partsnut’s question “See if you come up with the proper way this race should have been played”. Just noticed the winner paid $47.40 and for a gap (separation) of 0.5 was a good value bet.

I am really anxious to hear from Partsnut regarding what he discovered for I like anyone else want to learn how to use this tool to the best advantage.

I am likewise anxious to hear from Maxspa regarding what he may have uncovered when trying to narrow down the Allways Profile Summary Picks.

Randy does mention that Running Style is so very important and I wish I would have had time to take a look and incorporate them into this summary. Tom’s suggestions are directed right to that point. I totally agree with Tom.

[Tom]

After looking at the odds, I would say that the 5 is a throw out under any pace scenario-too slow early, too slow late. Runnig style would allow me to seperate the other four, but the odds of 20+ to 1 on the winner make it a bet in any scenario. Again, assuming all four are legit contenders based on representative pacelines, which I will stipulate for dicussion. I don't get that many 20-1 shots in my top four that I will pass any of them.

[Maxspa]

Diamond,
The process of checking out the Pace Appraiser with AllWays profile horses is long and laborious. I worked out the fourth race at TPx. the four profile horses were in Allways order as follows:
Pace Vel Pace Fig Speed Fig
3 Stella Marie Fast 1 91 75
5 Too Clever Fast 1 91 80
1 Turkish Echo Fast 3 102 85
4 Carol's Choice Fast 1 91 67

With my limited experience with Pace Appraiser this scenario is a no
brainer. Turkish Echo has the Pace Fig and Speed Fig edge.

The steps in the process are
1. Use the BRIS Custom PP Generator and run off PP's
2. Run off Pace Performance Reports to determine paceline used by AllWays.
3. Run off Oddsline Report to get Allways Handicapping Profiles
4. Fill in Pace Appraiser Data
5. Finally print Daily Data sheet.
Maxspa

[Partsnut]

Aqueduct 02-20-05

These are my picks for today using the data from ITS and
Randy Giles new program “Velocity Generator”
Please note: The program does not make the picks. I do.
The program is only a tool and a good one at that.

Race 1 – # 1 (Fines Creek)

Race 2 - Pass

Race 3 - # 1 (On Thin Ice)

Race 4 – Pass

Race 5 - # 3 (Princessca)

Race 6 - # 2 (Game Card)

Race 7 - # 3 (True Gold)

Race 8 - # 3 (Citizenship)

Race 9 - # 10 (Lucky Darling) or Black Light Dancer
If the 10 horse is scratched.

[SAL]

I got the 10 day trial and I've been using it with some success. The postitive things are:

Spots a LOT of phony favorites
Docking feature makes it easy to use with other programs

Negatives:

Manual input makes it time consuming (but worth it)
Has a nice graph feature, but you can't print it.

I'm probably going to buy this program. If he ever makes it able to download data and eliminate manual entry he'll probably get more buyers.

[Maxspa]

Sal,
It took me almost two and one half hours to handicap six Aqueduct races today. This is a problem, in that when the scratches are made available, you're already late for the early races.
I also caught myself making an error inputting data for Aqueduct and not Aqueduct Inner. I add the horse pace type next to the horses name when I type it in. I find this helps me look at the pace scenario with the AllWays profile horses.
I believe Randy is working on a download version and I for one will welcome that version.
Maxspa

[Diamond K]

Please ignore my rambling message up above. It doesn't belong in this post. I also made errors when explaining the separation. Just a moment of nothing to do late night.

On a positive note I am anxious to hear from Partsnut regarding his findings so far. He aluded to finding the proper way to analyze the race.

[Partsnut]

I have could not attach my worksheet for todays 1st race at GP.
The file was too large.

I beleve the 5 horse fits the race profile and will win.
I would back up my choice with a 1-5 exacta box.

As we all know there is no perfect method.
and I admit I am far from perfect.
What works today may not work tomorrow.

I do know I am working today and it's is time for me to go to work.