Tote methods

[Harmonicaslim]

I'm new to the group so I apologize if this has been raised before. But I was wondering if you have any angles or approaches to the game based strictly on the tote? If so, love to hear about them.

Appreciate it,

Slim

[BillW]

Slim,

Welcome to the site. Try the Search function from the menu bar near the top of the page. There have been discussions on this before.

Bill

[kingfin66]

I'm new to the group so I apologize if this has been raised before. But I was wondering if you have any angles or approaches to the game based strictly on the tote? If so, love to hear about them.

Appreciate it,

Slim

There is a person here who posts under the name "Totemaster." Search for posts by him as he is into this.

[Tote Master]

There seems to be quite a few different approaches to using the tote board as a handicapping tool. They should at least attempt to provide a means of gaining a better understanding of the betting action that goes on before each race is run. Unfortunately many of them rely very heavily on just the odds alone being displayed during the each betting cycle. This only takes into consideration (1) betting pool among the mutual pools, and completely ignores the activity in the available exotic pools.

I believe that in order to accurately decipher the betting activities, a complete analysis all of the monies involved is required. I won’t go into all of the many details that I feel are critical for a precise analysis, because they’ve been covered before in some of my previous comments on this forum. (If you care to look at any of them just click on my username “Tote Master”).

Beyond that, I just wanted to add that I’m not quite sure why so many traditional handicappers ignore the power of the tote board. It might be because many of the “other” approaches have fallen short in one way or another of producing consistent results. Perhaps they also still believe that every horse entered in a race is really trying to win. Whatever the case may be, I’m sure many would find it hard to believe that you can actually make worthwhile selections based on analysis of the tote board alone. Although I do it all the time, it’s not something I would recommend to those not thoroughly familiar with it.

I know for a fact, that when traditional handicapping methods are combined with a solid tote board analysis, any player will have a distinct advantage. Always keep in mind that you’re not just wagering against other players! Many times you’re also competing with the connections themselves! Other then getting direct inside information, I’m not aware of any other way of knowing who’s trying and who’s not.

Best of Luck

[Glitchy]

Totemaster,

I've always been intriuged byTote Board Analysis (having read some of the early economics papers in that area) .

I'm curious though, about your comment that we are not wagering against other players, but against the connections. Does this happen often?

My home track is Tampa - a low purse, but very competitive track - Average handle is on the order of 3 MM day (10 % on track, rest offtrack)

I'm not sure the connections can move pools this size, much less at the bigger tracks!! And these are not big pools, compared to the "Big Tracks".

Would welcome your input........

Thanks,

Glitchy

[kenwoodallpromos]

I read that a an exacta with a low payoff compared to one of the horse's win odds is a good bet. Any idea?

[hurrikane]

I"m not so sure that there are any 'good' handicappers' that don' t use the tote board on one fashion or another. They just don't believe it is the end all be all that tote analizers do.

IMO, to believe that every horse in every race has a connection
betting on them doesn't make sense. there are many, and likely most, owers, trainers, jockeys, etc that do not bet on horse races at all. They only race in them.

So unless you know for certain which connections bet and don't bet and under what circumstances you do not have all of the information.
And of the ones that don't bet, how do you know if those horses are ready, more ready than the ones being bet on by connections.
The bottom line is, you don't.

but...if you can make it work good for you. I haven't seen it

[JPinMaryland]

you know it just occurred to me but anybody find it strangely absurd that participants (owners, trainers, walkers, etc) can bet on a race they are participating in? Isnt that just wrong? Doesnt this mess up the average bettor? is there no way to prevent this from happening?

[betovernetcapper]

you know it just occurred to me but anybody find it strangely absurd that participants (owners, trainers, walkers, etc) can bet on a race they are participating in? Isnt that just wrong? Doesnt this mess up the average bettor? is there no way to prevent this from happening?

I would only be disturbed if they were betting on a horse other than their own.

[ratpack]

you know it just occurred to me but anybody find it strangely absurd that participants (owners, trainers, walkers, etc) can bet on a race they are participating in? Isnt that just wrong? Doesnt this mess up the average bettor? is there no way to prevent this from happening?

I asked this in another thread and never got a straight answer maybe someone who know the rules can post an answer.

I know if a trainer has a horse entered he has to bet his horse to win but can he bet other horses to win really making that rule just a loop hole. So he can be $2 to win on his horse and $200 to win on another horse.

What about P6 tickets can a trainer be in partners with 15 other guys if he has a horse in one of the p6 and the ticket containes other horses in the leg where the trainer has a horse running?

Is Jose Conseco allowed in a bathroom stall with your horse?

[sjk]

My guess would be that owners and trainers who bet lose at a greater rate than the average player. I, for one, and happy to have a chance to win their money.

[Pace Cap'n]

I had an aquaintance who had spent a lot of time on the back side, so he said.

According to him, the absolute worst source for tips, bar none, was the trainers, jockeys, and owners.

[raybo]

I agree that at least a certain amount of "tote sense" is mandatory if you want to do as well as your handicapping abilities will allow. First of all, you want to get a fair return on your investment, which will require you to compare the "near post time odds" with your approximation of the horse's actual chances of winning, placing, showing, etc. Secondly, none of us is perfect and sometimes the tote will signal that we have overlooked something somewhere. Thirdly, I believe, right or wrong, that unexpected action in an amount large enough to affect the odds cannot be ignored. I'm not talking about odds changes in comparison to M/L odds necessarily, but rather the "logical" odds one would expect. One doesn't have to be a "line setter" either to recognize unusual action on horses. Like Totemaster, I also believe in the "connections" factor in regards to tote action. To find out which ones actually wager on their horses would require considerable analysis in and of itself. However, it seems probable to me that trainers and, by association, owners and their friends and associates have information that we as mere players don't have concerning their own mounts. If I as a trainer/owner knew that my horse was at the top of his form and in a good position regarding the other competitors I would have a pretty good idea if my horse was likely to win, get second, etc. I would be stupid, if I were a person apt to wager, if I didn't use that information to my advantage to put some extra cash in my pockets, or my friends' pockets.

If unexpected action is showing on a particular horse, it would be wise to try to determine why, and if you can't find out a logical reason for that unexpected action you might want to look for a better spot.

[Buckeye]

I had an aquaintance who had spent a lot of time on the back side, so he said.

According to him, the absolute worst source for tips, bar none, was the trainers, jockeys, and owners.

Exactamundo!

If not true, then why are they there, or, are they there because that's the place to be?

"I'll become an owner, jockey, or trainer, so that I can make BIG money betting on inside information."

Is that what they're doing?

[Tote Master]

Glitchy
I'm curious though, about your comment that we are not wagering against other players, but against the connections. Does this happen often?

My home track is Tampa - a low purse, but very competitive track - Average handle is on the order of 3 MM day (10 % on track, rest offtrack)

I'm not sure the connections can move pools this size, much less at the bigger tracks!! And these are not big pools, compared to the "Big Tracks".
Well first off I want to say that I really enjoy playing the Tampa Bay track. I think the payoffs are terrific and are typical for many of the mid-size tracks. These tracks I believe offer the best value in racing. In the same way that traditional handicappers have found many races at these tracks a bit more difficult to predict, I have spent an inordinate amount of time developing a tote analysis that is unique for the betting that goes on. There is certainly a big difference between Tampa Bay and Aqueduct or Santa Anita.

You mentioned the average size daily handle and how it’s distributed. That’s all well and good, but when it’s broken down on a race-by-race, and pool-by-pool basis the numbers become more meaningful. What you didn’t mention is “when” these monies enter the betting pools. This is a critical ingredient for any worthwhile tote analysis. From my own experience, I have noticed (and recorded) that most tracks display certain betting patterns that are distinctive. Without going into all of the psychological aspects of betting, I will say that all of the early money is “on-track”. Beyond that it seems at certain times during the betting cycle the leading indicators of the betting pools are at their peak. I can’t say for certain why this occurs, or why it varies from track to track. Perhaps we’re just creatures of habit, but I’m not really concerned about the “why”. I’m only interested in the “when” and the fact that it repeats itself.

As I’ve mentioned before, I don’t believe that the bias in the pools is being created by thousands of individual $2, $10, or $20 players. The heavy hitters are making their impact by placing their money very carefully and sometimes very discreetly. They certainly don’t want to give anything away by depleting the odds on their interests. Just as we try to maximize value, so do they, but they usually have a lot more at stake. Granted the betting pools aren’t as large at these tracks. That’s one of the reasons why their play is often more detectable. I’ve learned to value their intent as much as they do.

To answer your question, from what I’ve seen the connections are betting on a regular basis. After all who knows more about their charge? (Certainly not you or I.) I really don’t believe that you can detect their intentions by just viewing the summary of the win pool alone: the odds.

Kenwoodallpromos
I read that a an exacta with a low payoff compared to one of the horse's win odds is a good bet. Any idea?
This could very well be true, if you believe that the limited value of the exacta payoff does not reflect the odds shown. However, I wouldn’t limit myself by comparing only one of horse’s odds. I would couple your idea by first noting which of the (2) horses is having the most relative impact on all of the exacta combinations.

Comparisons like these should be the basis of any tote board analysis because they help to reveal the bias between each of the betting pools. A monetary bias is just like a track bias, it favors one entry over another.

Best of Luck

[Buckeye]

Conversely,

If the insiders don't know more than me, then it must be the outsiders that do.

Good luck.

[toetoe]

Totemeister,
Two things:
1) Don't you think, as 50% or more of handle comes in in the last 3 minutes before post time, that "early money" is a thing of the past, and doesn't this make smart money almost indistinguishable from the rest?

2) NYRA site has every day's WPS,exacta, DD and will-pays posted for every race until sometime in the evening when it closes. You can save the data or print it and study it anytime.

[Tote Master]

hurrikane
I"m not so sure that there are any 'good' handicappers' that don' t use the tote board on one fashion or another. They just don't believe it is the end all be all that tote analizers do.

IMO, to believe that every horse in every race has a connection
betting on them doesn't make sense. there are many, and likely most, owers, trainers, jockeys, etc that do not bet on horse races at all. They only race in them.

So unless you know for certain which connections bet and don't bet and under what circumstances you do not have all of the information.
And of the ones that don't bet, how do you know if those horses are ready, more ready than the ones being bet on by connections.
The bottom line is, you don't.
Hurricane no one is disputing the use or value of the tote board. I think that many simply use the only tactic that they’re familiar with (or that's convenient): Viewing the changing odds. I personally view this as such an overtly simplistic approach. I would compare it to someone telling a handicapper that they’re playing a horse because they liked the color of the jock’s silks.

You’re so right that every horse has its connections. I’m not interested in all of them. I’m only interested in those who spell out their intentions with money. Besides, who said anything about betting “every” race? I’m sure they’re as selective in playing a race, as any good handicapper should be!

The word “connections” is pretty broad. Perhaps you’re right in suggesting that the “immediate” connections don’t wager themselves. They shouldn’t really have to, if they’ve got family and friends. You certainly don’t have to know which of the “immediate” connections are the players if you know how to analyze the board. Its not question of readiness, that’s a given. It’s question of their intent on trying to win the race. You’re right, more then one entry could certainly be ready, but are they trying? As I’ve mentioned before I believe intent is measured in dollars and that’s my bottom-line. My suggestion to anyone like yourself who doesn’t believe that money drives this game is to start out by simply finding and listing the actual expenditures of owning, boarding, feeding, and properly caring for a thoroughbred or standardbred at any level on a continuous basis. The bottom line will amaze you.

JPinMaryland
you know it just occurred to me but anybody find it strangely absurd that participants (owners, trainers, walkers, etc) can bet on a race they are participating in? Isnt that just wrong? Doesnt this mess up the average bettor? is there no way to prevent this from happening?

Betovernetcaper
I would only be disturbed if they were betting on a horse other than their own.

Ratpack
asked this in another thread and never got a straight answer maybe someone who know the rules can post an answer.
I know if a trainer has a horse entered he has to bet his horse to win but can he bet other horses to win really making that rule just a loop hole. So he can be $2 to win on his horse and $200 to win on another horse.
What about P6 tickets can a trainer be in partners with 15 other guys if he has a horse in one of the p6 and the ticket containes other horses in the leg where the trainer has a horse running?
All of your comments seem to revolve around the same subject: Wagering by the horse’s connections. Remember this is the so-called “Sport of Kings”. Since this game first started, it was all about the “connections” that were betting a king’s ransom against each other. Do you think anything has changed? Why would it be wrong to bet on your entry or even someone else’s? Never be so naive to believe that it doesn’t happen. This game is wide open because it’s just that, a Game. The motive for playing this game is not to see how many winners, or exactas, etc. etc. can be picked to bolster our egos. The reason to play is to make money. If that’s not your reason, then I’m sure you can have fun watching it too! I just don’t think its much fun losing money, but that’s me.

sjk
My guess would be that owners and trainers who bet lose at a greater rate than the average player. I, for one, and happy to have a chance to win their money.
They also “win” at a greater rate because they’re very selective and they have more at stake then you or I.. You seem to look at their glass as being half empty. They certainly look at the glass as being half full. I look at the glass and simply say it’s too big.

Pace Cap’n
I had an aquaintance who had spent a lot of time on the back side, so he said

According to him, the absolute worst source for tips, bar none, was the trainers, jockeys, and owners.
I would never, and I mean never rely on a tip unless one of those you mentioned asked me to personally make a decent sized wager for them........ It reminds me of a day long ago when I was at Aqueduct with a friend. We were just riding the escalator to another level when I noticed the guy in front of me wearing a set of cuffs secured to an attaché case. I nonchalantly asked, “Got anything good for today?” He turned and said, “I’ve only got one thing going. Check out the 3 in the 5th and have a nice day”. Needless to say we had a great day. Without realizing it at the time, it became my first encounter with an awareness of how the real money talks in this game.
toetoe
Two things:
1) Don't you think, as 50% or more of handle comes in in the last 3 minutes before post time, that "early money" is a thing of the past, and doesn't this make smart money almost indistinguishable from the rest?

2) NYRA site has every day's WPS,exacta, DD and will-pays posted for every race until sometime in the evening when it closes. You can save the data or print it and study it anytime.
1) Personally I value the early money, only because I've seen first hand the impact it has on creating specific bias in the betting pools. The later money, especially at the larger tracks even 5 minutes to post is mostly coming from remote betting locations. From what I've seen it only dilutes the clarity of the tote analysis. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure occasionally someone is making a large late wager, be it on-track or off. But think about it. If you knew you had an opportunity to make a real score would you wait until the last minute to send it in?

2) There many sources, I'm sure that will give you a snapshot of the tote board at the end of the race, or even at the end of the day. This is simply a static picture of the results of the betting. The only analysis I value and rely on is dynamic as it deciphers the the betting activity as it actually takes place.

Best of Luck

[Buckeye]

If the insiders don't know more than me, then it must be the outsiders that do.

Could also be they both do! :cool:

[Harmonicaslim]

I appreciate all of these great comments. The discussion about early money is interesting. Are we talking about the very first flash of the odds? For instance, a 20-1 that opens at 5-2?

Thanks,
Slim

[hurrikane]

tote - I keep asking you to prove this concept and I get nothing but funny stories.

you know, so much of this can be so much misperception it is amazing.

I use to make bets into some medium pools every day at 10am. it was only a few hundred but when the pools opened my 10-1 shot would flash at 2-1.
it would never recover. Not sure if it was the public seeing the low odds before more money got in the pool and thinking it was 'smart money' dumping on the horse. All i know is my ROI was getting killed as I wasn't getting my odds.

At these tracks I quit making early bets or quit betting them altogether.
Odds went up and so did the ROI.

Now, I don't bet 10s of thousands of dollars on one race. But you can see how this can get misinterpreted very easily.

As I said. I have seen nothing that proves any of this bs works.
maybe it does, i just havent' seen anything that proves it does.

I'm also curious

sjk, said. 'they lose at a greater rate'
you said ' they also win at a greater rate'

can it really be both ways.

here's an idea. why don't you show some stats that prove the things you say.
specific races, time frames, proof of concept, data runs, anything.
You never do that and i doubt you can. tough place because if you try and can't then all that work to get the suckers to buy the bs at your website was for nothing.

hmmm...it's a tough place to be...can't prove it...can't not prove it.

why not tell us another bs story about a guy with a briefcase. That was entertaining.

[John]

hurrikane.

Good challenge for the tout, whoops sorry, tote

[Blackgold]

Although I have never used the service being discussed in this thread, I often use the first couple of flashes to help me decide runners to include in the exotic tickets I'm already considering.

As readers of this board know, I'm a user of TMM Value Tech module.

One of the features of that program is where the user types in the board odds and the program indicates "overbets", "good action" and "heavy play."

It's often the "heavy play" runners, in those first minutes, that give me runners to include in the exotic ticket that I'm constructing with my overlay runners.

I always look to see if I think the "heavy play" is the public or connections.

If Jerry Bailey is riding a Mott entry on the grass at GP, I know it's probably the retirees backing the runner, so I discount it.

If I see "heavy play" on a runner that doesn't smell public, like above, I know I've got the connections riding with me.

Often these "heavy play" runners get in the exotic tickets and just as often win.

However, to show what the connections know, just as often a "heavy play" runner is an S type in a Lone E or E race and has little chance to win- but again, closes for a piece, while the overlay winner grabs the connections money and redistributes it, hopefully, to me.

Again, I have never used the service being discussed in this thread. But would never discount the idea as I know it exists to some extent and I use it to some extent.

If you want valadation, I suggest ordering and reading a book called "Exacta Expose", where it shows, in great detail, what may border as larceny., i.e.- exacta's being crushed at certain OTBs and tracks in Louisiana. The book was written by a former state gaming official.

As for the guy in NY with the briefcase- maybe he's under indictment now.

[hurrikane]

Exacta's Exposed.

I haven't read this book and am leary of taking the time. But maybe.

a 10 yr old book on a study of 1200 races. Hardly a piece to hang your hat on.

thanks though. Maybe I'll find a copy somewhere ...for free..

[Tote Master]

hurrikane
tote - I keep asking you to prove this concept and I get nothing but funny stories.

you know, so much of this can be so much misperception it is amazing.

I use to make bets into some medium pools every day at 10am. it was only a few hundred but when the pools opened my 10-1 shot would flash at 2-1.
it would never recover. Not sure if it was the public seeing the low odds before more money got in the pool and thinking it was 'smart money' dumping on the horse. All i know is my ROI was getting killed as I wasn't getting my odds.

At these tracks I quit making early bets or quit betting them altogether.
Odds went up and so did the ROI.

Now, I don't bet 10s of thousands of dollars on one race. But you can see how this can get misinterpreted very easily.

As I said. I have seen nothing that proves any of this bs works.
maybe it does, i just havent' seen anything that proves it does.

I'm also curious

here's an idea. why don't you show some stats that prove the things you say.
specific races, time frames, proof of concept, data runs, anything.
You never do that and i doubt you can. tough place because if you try and can't then all that work to get the suckers to buy the bs at your website was for nothing.

hmmm...it's a tough place to be...can't prove it...can't not prove it.

why not tell us another bs story about a guy with a briefcase. That was entertaining.
hurrikane
I’m thrilled that you find my comments so entertaining! I’ll have let you know when my book is released.

Unfortunately it would probably take a book to explain everything that I believe is necessary for an accurate and worthwhile tote board analysis. If I were to begin such an elaborate explanation on this forum, I would once again be accused of advertising. It would also violate my agreement with PA and jeopardize my ability to continue posting my personal comments. This not a cop out. As I’ve mentioned before I have nothing to prove to anyone but myself.

I regard my personal standards to be perhaps a bit higher then the next persons. Only because I know the amount of time and effort spent to develop something that I believe is worthwhile. I can only assume that those who have chosen to continue to use it have likewise researched and found its value. You can certainly consider the things that I’ve mentioned about the tote board as BS, but as they say, “One man’s garbage is another man’s gold”. Perhaps the easiest way to demonstrate it is by once again posting some live selections. Then again, I’m pretty sure that those that do provide and share their selections don’t do it to prove a point. Maybe I’m wrong, but I certainly haven’t seen anyone scrutinize their results either.

Regarding the way you used to make early bets and then discovering the paltry odds, I would hope that you have learned from those experiences. Looking for value in my book means at least seeing what the odds are before placing a bet.

Best of Luck

[hurrikane]

who said anything about paultry odds?
actually I am very happy betting against the MLO. I dont' have the time to sit and watch a tote board all day. I have odds go up and down from the MLO and in the end it is about a wash. This is part of the reason why I dont' buy into the tote board watchers as 'THE' way to play the races.

IF if works for you then fine. I would rather put my bets in, go play golf, pick up a check at the end of the day. That's just my way of doing it.

as for posting pics....actually posting your selections and why would be different. Certainly better than listing 4 or 5 horses and then saying you won this or that because one of them actually won.

[Tote Master]

hurrikane
actually I am very happy betting against the MLO. I dont' have the time to sit and watch a tote board all day. I have odds go up and down from the MLO and in the end it is about a wash. This is part of the reason why I dont' buy into the tote board watchers as 'THE' way to play the races.

IF if works for you then fine. I would rather put my bets in, go play golf, pick up a check at the end of the day. That's just my way of doing it.
Well I guess that kind of explains it all! Your comment obviously shows how serious you are about this game.

We are worlds apart my friend, but to each his own.

Best of Luck (on the links too)

[hurrikane]

well, some of us just work smarter I guess.

[ratpack]

This type of Favorite seems to win time and time again, if you want to call this a tote method. To refresh if the Favorite in the race is 3/2 or less and every other horse is 5-1 or above.

[John]

RAT,

Kitts, can tell you about a guy named ,Ambrose, That did very well with that patten. I believe he bet to place and show.

[midnight]

Well I guess that kind of explains it all! Your comment obviously shows how serious you are about this game.

We are worlds apart my friend, but to each his own.

Best of Luck (on the links too)

Your comment shows that you're classless as well as clueless. You remind me of a slightly-politer version of Tom Console. Hurrikane is one of the better handicappers with a proven track record and has actually posted picks in the past. So far, I've seen zero picks from you, but plenty of ads (some generated by "what's this?" two-post wonders) for your tote system.

I spent parts of three days using your free trial. I saw no correlation between your reports and the actual results. Zero. None. Nil.

I'll continue this on my next post because I don't want that tied into my opinion of you.

[hurrikane]

yeah Rat,
I believe Fierro uses this filter to eliminate races for prohibited favorites.

they do end up in the money more than their share. Don't know about the p/s though.

thanks midnight...but really, the cat's out of the bag on this guy.

[midnight]

I was doing tote analysis back in the mid 1980's. It wasn't all I did then, but it supplemented what I was doing with handicapping. I saw the money being hidden in the exactas (and trifectas, but the exacta probables were visible) and learned how to spot and analyze the same long before computer programs were available that did it. When the web totes first came out, I did nothing but visual (unaided by any computer number crunching program) tote analysis for a few years. My ROI was okay, around 1.07-1.08, padded with rebates (mainly Phonebet) to around 1.10-1.11.

The ROI isn't there anymore. Programs like E-Horse Arbitrage (now defunct) and At the Races make the info too easy to see. A few guys wrote their own programs that do similar things. Back in the day, a horse that was 3-1 odds and 9-5 in the exactas would still get off at 5-2. Now the ATR users and others see the exacta action and slam the horse down to 8-5 or lower. The guys betting the informed money know that, so a lot of them make their bets late enough that it doesn't show up until the race is off. That's how you see these horses that win by daylight and drop from 3-1 to 2-1 in the odds after the race goes off. The people making those bets aren't past-posting (at least not usually--I still think it happens at Sam Houston and a few other places). They're just putting it in late so that everybody else can't hop on the bandwagon and lower their price. But it makes a lot of bets that were avaialble 5 years ago impossible to get now.

It still might be possible to grind out 1.02 to 1.03 ROI. But I'm moved on since then, and there are better ways (for me at least) to go. Doing the tote work properly takes a lot of mental concentration, it's very exhausting, and the money isn't that great anymore. It's easier and more profitable to make my HTR generated spot plays and use real-time to sit on Party Poker and play three simultaneous games or Sit-N-Gos. That also takes some concentration, but it's a lot more lucrative.

Learning to analyze the totes isn't rocket science. I could teach most people in about two hours. The hard part is doing the actual work. As said, it takes constant concentration, and it's very mentally and physically exhausting. It's a lot of work, and it can get very boring. The ROI isn't as good as it used to be, although it'd still be profitable with the 7% rebate.

[osophy_junkie]

Not knowing the final values isn't a show stopper. I have had moderate success extrapolating what the final values will be. Another technique I have been looking into is normalizing the tote values and looking only at large movements. The tote board might no longer be a place to look for inefficiencies. However, I find it hard to believe that it doesn't have value being used else where.

Ed

[Tote Master]

midnight
Your comment shows that you're classless as well as clueless. You remind me of a slightly-politer version of Tom Console. Hurrikane is one of the better handicappers with a proven track record and has actually posted picks in the past. So far, I've seen zero picks from you, but plenty of ads (some generated by "what's this?" two-post wonders) for your tote system.

I spent parts of three days using your free trial. I saw no correlation between your reports and the actual results. Zero. None. Nil.Well you’re response and personal attack shows me exactly the type of person you are! Apparently you missed my posted selections for Delta Downs a few weeks ago:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=17298&highlight=Live+Delta+Downs
You’re right, I don’t have a long track record here of posting selections, but please do me a favor and show me where you have posted an equivalent series of selections in one day. You missed that, just as you missed making any attempt to try and comprehend something that was perhaps beyond your interest or scope. So you gave it a whole (3) days! Isn’t that terrific. It's not surprising that you missed any correlation: Just as you completely misinterpreted my comments to hurricane. We certainly have our differences, but there wasn’t any malice intended what so ever.
midnight
I was doing tote analysis back in the mid 1980's. It wasn't all I did then, but it supplemented what I was doing with handicapping. I saw the money being hidden in the exactas (and trifectas, but the exacta probables were visible) and learned how to spot and analyze the same long before computer programs were available that did it. When the web totes first came out, I did nothing but visual (unaided by any computer number crunching program) tote analysis for a few years. My ROI was okay, around 1.07-1.08, padded with rebates (mainly Phonebet) to around 1.10-1.11.

The ROI isn't there anymore. Programs like E-Horse Arbitrage (now defunct) and At the Races make the info too easy to see. A few guys wrote their own programs that do similar things. Back in the day, a horse that was 3-1 odds and 9-5 in the exactas would still get off at 5-2. Now the ATR users and others see the exacta action and slam the horse down to 8-5 or lower. The guys betting the informed money know that, so a lot of them make their bets late enough that it doesn't show up until the race is off. That's how you see these horses that win by daylight and drop from 3-1 to 2-1 in the odds after the race goes off. The people making those bets aren't past-posting (at least not usually--I still think it happens at Sam Houston and a few other places). They're just putting it in late so that everybody else can't hop on the bandwagon and lower their price. But it makes a lot of bets that were avaialble 5 years ago impossible to get now.

Learning to analyze the totes isn't rocket science. I could teach most people in about two hours. The hard part is doing the actual work. As said, it takes constant concentration, and it's very mentally and physically exhausting. It's a lot of work, and it can get very boring. The ROI isn't as good as it used to be, although it'd still be profitable with the 7% rebateI can only imagine the extent of your previous attempts to understand the activities of the tote board, especially with all that mental and physical exhaustion. Your methods must have been real efficient. You’re right even rocket science doesn’t deplete your resources when you use the proper tools. I personally would love to hear your 2-hour dissertation on the tote board. You sound like a real expert for sure, especially with your claims of being able “visually and mentally” decipher all of the betting activities. Your concentration level must be truly amazing! It’s not surprising that your returns were so good.

What is really astonishing (to me anyway) is how can you spew out all these generalities about the odds and when people place their wagers. As if every race produced the same results from the same activities. Perhaps your ROI wasn’t as good as it could have been, but please don’t act as if just because you can’t do something that no one else can either. I don’t find making money boring, and I certainly don’t spend time weeding though PP’s looking for answers. Fortunately I was able to break with tradition and spend more time enjoying the game.

I personally find it very disheartening when people like yourself who supposedly try to do something new, fail and then tell others that it’s impossible by grandstanding their opinions. Opinions I feel that are more then likely based on misconceived and shallow attempts to try something different. Granted this game is based on opinions. Some are just a bit more valid then others.

So best of luck in whatever approach you use.

[raybo]

I'm not going to get into this argument concerning whether or not tote analysis works or doesn't, I've already stated my beliefs on that subject. But, what I do know for sure is that you can tell someone how to make a profit at the track, even show them real time, and when they try it on their on, and it doesn't produce a profit in the first 15 minutes they'll start cussing you and call you a liar. With all the people on this board and others that profess their expertness at handicapping while claiming that they make a ROI of 1.05 or 1.10 or less, more power to them. If I couldn't make more than 10% profit at something as stressful and time consuming as horse race handicapping, I think I'd just put the money under my mattress and forget about it.

[midnight]

Tote Master: It's official: you're a relative of Tom Console. Both of you have the same M.O: if the other guy raises objections, call him names.

I haven't posted many selections because I'm not trying to sell something, ad nauseum, like you are. $25 per race card per day is a tough sell for something as established and reputable as the Ragozin Sheets or Thorograph, let alone an unproven alleged toteboard-analysis system.

To correct something you alluded to, the Tote analysis I used still hits the same frequency of winners that it did long ago. The problem is that the average mutuel payoff has gone down. Same problem handicappers have over time if they keep using the same method. The average mutuel goes down. The ROI goes down.

And your commerical is getting VERY old, as are the one-post wonders who come in asking about tote analysis----another trick Mr. Console used frequently.

As Karl said once about a certain less-than-frank "guru", if it looks like snake oil and smells like snake oil, then it must be snake oil.