Amazing but true...

[rmania]

Once, while handicapping a maiden race, I came upon a horse that had two official starts. Neither race was impressive as both times the horse finished “up the track”. However, in doing my analysis, I found two occasions where horses displayed identical efforts as this one did in it’s last and each showed the same amount of improvement in their next race.

After applying that same amount of improvement to this maiden I became very skeptical as it returned a predicted finishing time of 1:08.2.

To make a long story short, I went ahead and bet the horse (at @ 26-1) and it won with a finishing time of 1:08.3.

Again, this was a maiden making it’s 3rd start and it’s previous two races were, to say the least, dismal.

[JustRalph]

not unusual. I love third back from a layoff........for older horses..........especially if the horse is running back within about 7-10 days of the 2nd race back.

[46zilzal]

Had it run agains a very fast pace?

[rmania]

Had it run against a very fast pace?
There was absolutely nothing in the Racing Form that suggested this horse had any talent whatsoever. Like I said, when the results of my analysis came back with a final time prediction of 1:08.2 I thought “NO WAY”. But it happened....

Here’s another story. You remember Kona Gold (Breeder’s Cup Sprint Champion), well I remember doing my analysis on him the day he broke his maiden. Using his last race for comparison he was supposed to run a 1:07.3 on that day. In his previous starts I think the best he had done was 1:10 and change.

He won that day by (I think) 10 lengths in 1:07.3

[kingfin66]

Was the maiden coming back off a layoff and going from 2yo to 3yo? That is a really good angle - lightly raced maiden 2yo that show nothing, then come back as 3yos and rock.