Risen Star Ratings

[Bubbles]

Not sure whether to put this in selections or here, but since it's a respectable race on the Derby trail, I'll put it here.

Using my ratings scale, I've compiled these ratings (out of a possible 100) for the Risen Star...

1) HARLINGTON-94
2) ICED OUT-92
3) STORM SURGE-89
4) SCIPION-88
5) SILENT BID-87
6) RUSH BAY-86
7) ELECTRIC LIGHT-85
8) BOLD LION-85
9) BUZZARDS BAY-84
10) SMOOTH BID-83
11) REAL DANDY-82

You have to respect Harlington in this spot. He's 2-for-2 at this stage of his career, sports a very nice worktab, and gets the Velasquez/Pletcher treatment. However, Iced Out also rates a long look. Ran a very nice second in the San Rafael at SA last out, and Tyler Baze comes in from California to ride him. If he's anywhere near the 8-1 ML odds he has now, he's worth a bet.

[kev]

I like Storm Surge and I might get better than 5-1 or atless 5-1. Iced Out is a nice forward moving horse from a sheet reading stand point, if he doesnt fire here, look for next time out. You have to think Harlington will be bet down to about 8-5 or lower. Out of the longshots in here which are some, that you all think might grab a bit of the purse?? I'll say Real Dandy 10-1.

[Valuist]

I think Harlington is almost certain to be overbet. The bloodlines alone will depress the odds, then the Pletcher/Velazquez factor will further bring them down. I'm not saying he can't win, but if he does, I think it will be as an underlay.

[Bubbles]

My longshot, as I said earlier, is Iced Out. 8-1 ML, on a horse who just placed second in a G2? Not a lot of G2-placed 3YO's at this stage of the game, IMO, there's a ton of potential value here.

[OTM Al]

I agree with Bubbles. Iced Out is looking really good in this. May get a decent price on him...though I think he has been talke about in the press a little much for it

[kev]

Ouch Real Dandy, My main play was Storm S. I had a small bet on RD w/p, thought he was going to get up there for a sec. I know some of you all, are not big fans of the going wide story (don't think it plays much of a role), but when I saw Harlington go wide into the first turn I wasnt to worried about him then. Losing ground is a major part into my capping, I know some horses can't help it, but if you have the rail take it. Oh well on to the next derby prep's................