More difficult: Handicapping or Wagering??

[sq764]

I was curious which everyone thought was the more difficult part of horseracing - handicapping or wagering?

I must say that I find properly structuring wagers to be more of a challenge than handicapping a horse race. Wondered if anyone was in the same boat..

[GameTheory]

I think good handicapping is tougher to learn. Learning how to wager is something most people don't even try to learn, but I don't think the curve is as great if you really spend some time figuring it out.

The margin you're working with also makes a big difference. If your handicapping is great, you can afford a few more wagering errors and still stay in the black...

[anotherdave]

Handicapping. If I can't handicap I can't win long term. It tool me years to become a winning handicapper. Once I was one, the wagering part of it wasn't difficult (although I certainly have made my mistakes)- I bet almost always to win and don't overbet my bankroll.

AD

[karlskorner]

Sq764

Anotherdave gave you the best advice you will ever receive. Work on your handicapping, find the horse you think should win, bet to win and in time you will find your comfort zone with money mangement. Take the fork in the road, while everyone else is running after pace, pars, database info, look for something different, be it trainer intent, jockey etc., mine is "key races", today at GP, 8th race, a "key race" horse won and paid $26.00.
My "walkingout money" doubled my "walkingin money"

Karl.

[Amazin]

Smart wagering,in my personal experience is more crucial.Everyone has good days and bad days with handicapping.The question is on good days what did you do with your juicy 10-1 shot that was your best bet of the day..I hear it all the time .Zigged when I should have zagged.Of course handicappers get it right too.But my biggest misses in my 18 year carrer as a handicapper(including a 50k pick-6) miss have been due to not being clear in my wagering. You study the form for 3 hours,but when you get to the track ,you havent given a thought to how you're going to bet Then there's the emotional aspect.In my opinion it takes the discipline of a Bhudda to NOT bet at times when you know you shouldn't.Result:premature tapping out and your hi and dry when your spot plays come up big.Master your emotions at the track and I'll show you heaven.

[cj]

The key to mastering your emotions at the track, IMO, is to have an odds line. I'm not bringing this up to start on a discussion of the accuracy of personal odds lines, but it makes decision making much easier, especially passing races.

CJ

[sq764]

I appreciate all the responses.. I think I fit into the category of not being able to fire when I should.. Not sure if its nerves, caution, or just plain stupidity, but when I lock on that 15-1 shot that I LOVE, I always back down from a bold wager. And I usually regret it.

I think you know you have wagering difficulties when other people can make money off of your selections and you cannot..

[JimG]

I think they are both equally difficult for me due to psychological factors. With handicapping, if I change my approach, that's when my earlier approach starts winning. In betting, it seems if I bet to win....should have bet ex, tri, or most likeyly, skipped race. And vice versa. The emotional part is awfully tough when you play a trifecta like 34/2346/234689 and it runs 3-9-6 with the 9 at 30-1 for an IRS signer. With exotics, that is to be expected, but it is still tough to accept, even after all these years.

Jim

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by sq764
I appreciate all the responses.. I think I fit into the category of not being able to fire when I should.. Not sure if its nerves, caution, or just plain stupidity, but when I lock on that 15-1 shot that I LOVE, I always back down from a bold wager. And I usually regret it.


Good point. One of the betting mistakes that I have made taught me a valuable lesson. Many years ago I was betting $60W60P on every bettable race for weeks. I was on a good roll mostly on mid range odds. Then this horse came up that I had picked first at 30-1. I just assumed I was stupid, there was something wrong with my picking. Despite being on a roll I still lacked confidence. I did bet it: 20W20P30S (show???????????). He won and paid like 63 to win, 11 to place and 5 to show. Even my regular teller said "Why did you do that you always bet win and place?" I don't vary my bets that way anymore. If anything I should have doubled my bet considering the overlay I had.

AD

[karlskorner]

On the way to the window to cash your win ticket you will meet many people who will show you their tickets, how they put ab/abc/abcde, but forgot xyz to the ticket. And so to the floor they go, along with hundreds/thousands of other "exotic" tickets from owners trying to "" catch lightning in a bottle ""

Karl

[Tom]

Wagering. Hands down for me.
I can pick winners withboth hands. Unfortunately, it is the
same two hands that fish around empty pockets far too often.
I once picked 7 out of 10 at Batavia Downs (harness) and bet them all. Lost $$ on the evening. Now, I can't do much better than 70%, so it must be my wagering. I one played a 1-9 shot with two 35-1 shots in the exacta at Batavia. The big fav broke stride at the wire, the two longshots ran 1-2 and the x came back $3500. I lost cause I didn't put them together on the ticket. I once wheeled a 4-5 shot with every horse but one in the exacta. The one I left out ran second. The x came back $141. The problem is picking the winner isn't enough. You have to know if it a winner worth a bet. If it isn't you have to bet something you don't really like to win, but it is more value. Then when the one you liked wins anyways, you have issues to deal with in your head. The voices start up again so to speak.......arrrggghh!
I would rather have 3 $6.00 winners on a card than one $20.00 winner. And I understand that $20 is more than $18, but the other $2 is for mental health. If the $20 horse comes in the 8th or 9th race, I might be long gone when it hits. Or I might be looking for a $40 horse instead of $20 one and get nothing.

[so.cal.fan]

Wow, Tom:
You are a good looking guy! LOL LOL LOL:D

[CamptownRaces.com]

Knowing "How" to bet is the easiest part of the game in my opinion... Finding Who to play is the greatest challenge that I face.

The structuring of my exacta and trifecta wagers come to most a lot easier than even basic handicapping skills do.

The betting is the easy part....

Charles

PS
Hey Anotherdave...
Go and look at the EX I hit at BM's 7th by backwheeling the favotite!

($12 exacta if playing $2 multiples)

I have a card for sale on Thursday that I'll send you for FREE Dave...

Just email me and let me know what email address to send it to.

[kitts]

The third post from anotherdave says it for me. I learned one thing when I was still going to the track and that was I wrote down all my bets before I went and did not deviate. If there was a scratch or taken off turf the race was passed. This helped me with that woulda-coulda stuff. Spreading for exotics is one thing but changing that spread at the track made me crazy. I learned about bet structure from my mentors and, of course, modified it, but it works for me. Now that I am playing mulitple tracks I have time constraints on structuring exotics but win betting is still straightforward.

[superfecta]

story to illustrate....
was at the otb and had two fellas in front of me,both hit a race early and were up around a grand apiece.Next race had a trifecta and the start of a pick four.One fella was betting trifectas and exactas,the other the pick four.Trifecta guy bets 40 bucks with exacta savers.The other plays a pick four for 120 skins.Both have the winners,tri man cashes for almost another grand.Next race ,he plays 60 bucks.Both guys hit ,tri man up another 1100.next race tri man bets around 60 again.Well, they both lose,so tri man leaves,with almost 3000 bucks.Pick four guy has all the horses in the last leg,so hes hopin for a pick 3 consolation.He thinks he has a chance cause his first two winners paid 30 bucks and 18 bucks,and the third leg pays 62 bucks to win.Horse winning the last leg pays 9 dollars.Pick four pays 18000+.Pick four guy realizes he could have spent 24 dollars more and had it as well.The ONLY horse he eliminated in the third leg won the race.
Point being,both spent about the same amount of money,and had the same winners,yet they go home with different amounts.
Thats why I feel money management goes hand in hand with doping out a race.

[Tom]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Wow, Tom:
You are a good looking guy! LOL LOL LOL:D

Now that am out of office, I can reveal my true identity!
~G~


SLick Tommy

[Bruddah]

I am originally from Arkansas and the people there (including myself) consider him to be an insult to humanity. There are no better folks than those from the Empire State, but now Slick Willy and his wife have got you guys fooled. So sad, all of that intelligence and ability wrapped up in a snake.

[Jaguar]

You might enjoy ADPA's betting guide, it's excellent. Probably listed on their website, but I haven't looked at the site in a while.

ADPA's owner, John Cole, puts it out and he is one smart programmer, and one smart handicapper.

I have been an ADPA customer for many years and John has always treated me great.

By the way, Kudos to John for adding weighted factors to what is a strong pace program, looking forward to this upgrade scheduled for early summer.

Jaguar

[anotherdave]

Jaguar, I got some literature from ADPA a while back. Very professional looking, but when they say things like "Yes, it's that easy to get 65% 75% 85% winners at any track for every race you wager — in just 15 minutes a day — 100% guaranteed!", I lost all interest. What is the deal with claims like that - are they being ultra super-selective, betting to show, tons of exactas, dutching or what?

AD

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by RayGordon


Win betting is a waste of opportunity if you are sharper than the public.

If one slot confuses them, three slots confuse even more.

Anyone who can win one race in a row can win three in a row, right?

[Lefty]

Ray, I must be missing something... Isn't the Exacta takeout much higher than win bets and tri's higher than both?

[GameTheory]

Oh my god,

I actually agree with Ray. I think the exotics (exactas, trifectas) are easier to beat than win betting, despite the higher takeout, because people bet them "dumber" enough to make up for it...

[superfecta]

Originally posted by RayGordon


I'd rather play a 90-combination bet with a 20 percent takeout than a 10-combintion bet with a 17 percent takeout.

More combinations = more likely the public will mess up = much easier to beat the higher takeout. Ray, lets keep this our little secret,ok?;)

[Lefty]

Methinks if youguys playing 90 combination bets you will go broke pretty fast. I know the public makes mistakes but can't see making so many combos you turn it into a 2-1 shot. But i'm just mostly a win bettor, what do I know?

[Lefty]

Thanks for clarifying. I did misunderstand.