Derby Futures Pool #1

[ceejay]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/62580.html

No. Horse Odds
1 Afleet Alex 12-1

2 Bandini 30-1

3 Closing Argument 20-1

4 Consolidator 20-1

5 Declan's Moon 6-1

6 Galloping Grocer 30-1

7 Giacomo 50-1

8 Going Wild 30-1

9 Greater Good 30-1

10 Harlington 20-1

11 High Fly 20-1

12 High Limit 30-1

13 Lost in the Fog* 30-1

14 Proud Accolade 12-1

15 Rockport Harbor 8-1

16 Roman Ruler 12-1

17 Rush Bay 50-1

18 Spanish Chestnut 20-1

19 Storm Surge 30-1

20 Sun King 30-1

21 Sweet Catomine (f) 20-1

22 Texcess 20-1

23 Wilko 30-1

24 All other 3-year-olds 3-1

[JPinMaryland]

YOu look at these lines and have to believe that most of these futures bets seem like an easy money for the bookies. Even a perfectly sound, proven fast, horse at this time in Feb. still has many hurdles just to get to CD.


Declan's Mom 6-1. Even if he is the fav. he still has at least 2 or 3 races to get through soundly, and even if he was favored at CD it's still difficult for favs that day. In reality he's probably more like 15-1 and in reality that may be the best chance for any.

Roman Ruler 8-1. Still have many questions about his running style, change of rider, still has to run at least 2 times. More like 20 or 25 in reality.

PAccolade 12-1 serious question about his ability to go two turns, 12-1 is entirely wishful. Have to believe that if he was to start in the KY derby his odds would still not be much better than 10 or 12-1; I mean if he was to go off at less odds than that he would have had to have a monster spring, right?


Question. Which if any of these future bets would you feel good about putting a buck or two on?

Lost in fog what was he 30-1? Might be fair odds, GGrocer at 30-1 I would think might be the only bet I would feel good about. What do YOU think?

[ceejay]

The key in these pools is identifing a horse who can get better after the pools close. I can't do that in pool 1.

Maybe in the later pools.

[DerbyTrail]

Rush Bay at 50-1 looks like the one true value.. The poor draw he got in the Risen Star might keep him from winning Saturday.. That could keep his price high enough to play Sunday.

Bandini (30-1) is sure to take money.

[depalma13]

I've hit the futures 3 out of the 5 years I've played (wasn't elligible the first year). I hit with FuPeg (I bet him at 60-1 on Saturday, but I didn't realize it was mutual and the pool closed at something like 12-1 on Sunday after his big win) Monarchos, and Funny Cide (who was the only horse left on the trail from my top ten going into 2003). I missed with Repent and The Cliff's Edge.

Looking at it though, if the field stays above 3-1, I think that would be a good bet, since it has won half the time.

This year I'm going with Bandini.

I also have a bet in Vegas with Shamardal and a couple of others, but those are fixed odds.

[Observer]

Am I missing something .. what's with the * next to Lost in the Fog???
:confused:

[OTM Al]

He's not as of yet nominated for the triple crown, though he still can be

[JPinMaryland]

Its a good pt. the field at 3-1 might not be a bad deal some horse not on the radar is sure to step up this spring, happens every year. maybe at 4-1 would get me to play.

[Suff]

With about an Hour to go before Pool One closes..

I'm not a Big Futures guy.. But I flipped some short scores this weekend into a Few Hunch's and Fun Bets on the first Pool. I bolded the Horse and the Odds I'll get.


Sunday, February 13, 2005 2:38:19 PM ET

S/N: (ONLINE WAGERING) 83129337074 0
Sunday, February 13, 2005 12:27:32 PM ET
Race 1 KY Derby & Oaks Futures(Day)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
$10 WIN
*
Horses: 16... Roman Ruler 17-1
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Total: $10.00
S/N: (ONLINE WAGERING) 203857077572 0
Sunday, February 13, 2005 1:19:11 PM ET
Race 1 KY Derby & Oaks Futures(Day)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
$25 WIN
*
Horses: 5
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Total: $25.00 Declans Moon 10-1
S/N: (ONLINE WAGERING) 64640078120 0


Saturday, February 12, 2005 11:26:59 PM ET
Race 9 Sam Houston Race Park(Ngt)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
$20 WIN
*
Horses: 3 Closing Arguement 50-1
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Total: $20.00
S/N: (ONLINE WAGERING) 0227521784 0
Saturday, February 12, 2005 1:04:23 PM ET
Race 1 KY Derby & Oaks Futures(Day)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
$5 WIN
*
Horses: 20 Sun King 18-1
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Total: $5.00
S/N: (ONLINE WAGERING) 3584140058 0

Saturday, February 12, 2005 1:04:23 PM ET

S/N: (ONLINE WAGERING) 3523058 0
Saturday, February 12, 2005 1:03:14 PM ET
Race 1 KY Derby & Oaks Futures(Day)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
$15 WIN
*
Horses: 1,5,16 Afleet Alex 13-1, Declans Moon 10-1, Roman Ruler 17-1
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Total: $45.00
S/N: (ONLINE WAGERING) 4238854281 0

Saturday, February 12, 2005 11:43:18 AM ET

S/N: (ONLINE WAGERING) 687639677 0
Saturday, February 12, 2005 12:11:04 AM ET
Race 1 KY Derby & Oaks Futures(Day)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
$10 WIN
*
Horses: 1 Afleet Alex 13-1
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Total: $10.00
S/N: (ONLINE WAGERING) 0890934 0

[Suff]

From my account at betgameday.com


2005 Kentucky Derby Win Mutual
What will the Kentuck Derby winner pay - Based on a $2 dollar wager
05/07/2005
16:00 000 Over $18.50 (-110)
000 Under $18.50 (-120)


Derby Winner - Belmont
Will the Kentucky Derby winner win The Belmont - All bets are action
05/07/2005
16:00 000 Yes (450)
000 No (-550)

Derby Winner - Eclipse Award
Will the Derby winner win the 2005 Eclipse Award for 3yr old horse of the year
05/07/2005
16:00 000 Yes (-115)
000 No (-115)


Derby Winner - Preakness
Will the Kentucky Derby winner win The Preakness - All bets are action
05/07/2005
16:00 000 Yes (250)
000 No (-300)

Triple Crown
Will the 2005 Kentucky Derby winner win the Triple Crown
05/07/2005
16:00 000 Yes (700)
000 No (-900)


Winning saddle cloth number
What number will the Derby winner be wearing
05/07/2005
16:00 000 Odd (-120)
000 Even (-110)

[JPinMaryland]

I have a question about betting the field at 3-1. Does the field include all 3 year olds or just those nominated? For example would the field include Sort it Out? Recent winner but not nominated.

[Suff]

I have a question about betting the field at 3-1. Does the field include all 3 year olds or just those nominated? For example would the field include Sort it Out? Recent winner but not nominated.

heres the race condidtion from TVG's Betting Interface. From the way they say "All OTHER 3YO's"... I think a TC Nomination isn't required.

Race Program
Sunday, February 13, 2005 5:53:32 PM ET

Kentucky DERBY Future Wager - Pool One - For Three Year Olds. Colts and Geldings, 126 lbs. Fillies, 121 lbs. To Place a Future Wager on the Kentucky Derby, Please Ask For Race #1. If you wish bet to All Other Three Year Old Thoroughbreds, Ask For Number "24". No Refunds Will Be Issued In Any of the Three Wagering Pools for the Kentucky Derby Future Purse:$2,000,000 Class Rating:89 Surface : Dirt Type:Stakes

[ceejay]

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2005/futures.html

Final "field" odds are 2-1. Too short for me. I probably threw 2 bucks away by playing Rush Bay @ 60-1, hoping to excuse the lackluster Risen Star performance as needing a race off of layoff.

[OTM Al]

I was going to throw a couple bucks at Going Wild and Galloping Grocer, but backed off in the end. Just don't have a feel for a contender yet. I so wanted Smarty as a single this time last year, but couldn't get him til the final pool

[JPinMaryland]

Gee I am still not sure if that includes them all. But thx for the research there.

It's funny to think of what odds you can get today and what those same horses might be getting on derby day. Sweet Cat...20-1 is not a bad future bet, probably wont be placed there by connections but imagine on derby day she could go off at 5-1 maybe 4-1. A 20-1 ticket would be nice to hold that day.

OTOH. Proud Accolade at 12-1. Hell what could he possibly be on derby day? 8-1 at best? His odds could very climb to 10-1 in the day. Could probably find better plays on the earlier races. Hard to see that as money effectively spent.

So the field is now down to 2-1. Obviously the money coming into bookies is running to the newcomers after a weekend of upsets....Just psychology I guess. Do they keep offering futures up through march and april? Just a question...

Rush Bay is no disgrace to throw away two bucks on. I expect to lose all my longshots really.

[Suff]

2005 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 1 FINAL ODDS

Number Morning Line Wagering Interest Final Odds ($ wagered)
1. 12-1 Afleet Alex 15-1 (31,366)
2. 30-1 Bandini 20-1 (24,412)
3. 20-1 Closing Argument 50-1 (9,632)
4. 20-1 Consolidator 30-1 (15,727)
5. 6-1 Declan’s Moon 9-1 (48,415)
6. 30-1 Galloping Grocer 35-1 (12,902)
7. 50-1 Giacomo 25-1 (19,990)
8. 30-1 Going Wild 25-1 (17,803)
9. 30-1 Greater Good 35-1 (12,783)
10. 20-1 Harlington 19-1 (24,983)
11. 20-1 High Fly 25-1 (17,544)
12. 30-1 High Limit 25-1 (17,032)
13. 30-1 Lost In The Fog* 21-1 (22,692)
14. 12-1 Proud Accolade 35-1 (14,207)
15. 8-1 Rockport Harbor 13-1 (36,373)
16. 12-1 Roman Ruler 18-1 (26,606)
17. 50-1 Rush Bay 60-1 (7,781)
18. 20-1 Spanish Chestnut 35-1 (12,759)
19. 30-1 Storm Surge 70-1 (7,158)
20. 30-1 Sun King 19-1 (25,455)
21. 20-1 Sweet Catomine (f) 21-1 (22,829)
22. 20-1 Texcess 80-1 (6,150)
23. 30-1 Wilko 23-1 (21,057)
24. 3-1 All Other 3-Year-Olds 2-1 (164,706)
Total $620,362


*not currently nominated to Visa Triple Crown
(f) - filly

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Statistics

Wagering (by year) Pool 1 Pool 2 Pool 3 Total
2005 $620,362***
2004 $536,958 $358,966 $386,244 $1,282,168
2003 $516,906 $391,002 $222,261 $1,130,169
2002 $577,889 $401,070 $524,847 $1,503,806
2001 $510,815 $372,961 $425,871 $1,309,647
2000 $465,454 $306,259 $387,206 $1,158,919
1999 $267,748 $178,811 $229,674 $676,233


Winning payout Pool 1 Pool 2 Pool 3 Derby payout
2004 (Smarty Jones) $5.60 $10.80 $23.60 $10.20
2003 (Funny Cide) $188.00**** $120.80 $107.40 $27.60
2002 (War Emblem*) $7.60 $16.00 $24.00 $43.00
2001 (Monarchos) $36.60 $13.00 $15.80 $23.00
2000 (Fusaichi Pegasus) $27.80 $26.40 $8.00** $6.60
1999 (Charismatic*) $10.20** $30.20 $26.60 $64.60
* - Charismatic (1999) and War Emblem (2002) were members of the mutuel field in all three pools in their respective years
** - Favorite
*** - Single pool wagering record
****Record KDFW win payout

[Suff]

Handle looks Like its up about 250% since the first year (1999)... and up somewhere around 18% from last year. First Pool only. Quick guesstimates.

[Observer]

With a "field" wager in Pool 1 .. you would win with any 3yo other than those individually listed, whether they are nominated or not at this point.