Harness par times

[andicap]

Anyone know where to get par times for harness tracks like the set Dave Schwartz sells for the t-breds?

[Tom]

Pandy has a set for Medowlands posted in his article archives - from last year, actually, 2003, but I doubt they change that much.

http://www.ustrotting.com/handicapping/pandolfo/pandy_archives.cfm

[sq764]

Funny you should ask..

I am in the process of finalizing my part times.. Which tracks you looking for?

And which classes?

[melman]

Not a whole lot of info available on that subject Andi. Par times can be very tricky business with harness but I think the "deluxe" trackmaster download files also makes an attempt at it. Sounds crazy I know but I do not look at par times, drivers, trainers, or even track condition. All of those factors can have there place and I am not downplaying them. Just that I ignore them for my own low win percentage, high payoff style of play. One thing for sure there can be a WORLD of differance between one group of $20,000 claimers and another racing on the same night. Also for anyone who thinks there is a lack of high payoffs in harness please just check out last night's results at The Meadowlands. LOL The amazing part of this is to me a lot of these "bombs" are quite logical to my speed/pace thinking. Harness has about 98% of it's races at the one mile distance and no Turf racing (except at Freehold, sorry inside joke LOL) so speed/pace numbers I think are even more effective than with t-breds. Thank goodness there is a lack of data and good software programs for harness. :)

[andicap]

Thanks for the reply, Mel

Looking for pars as way of recognizing races where pace was slower or hotter than normal to upgrade/downgrade horses or disregard certain pacelines. Gives some horses a ready made excuse. Others would be dismissed off good performances if led or tracked especially slower pace.

[Tom]

I have been looking at just individual fractions and moves within them. The actual times of harness races seem to be much less important than in t-bred. I wrote a program that uses the old Sartin idea of a meridian adjsutment, that is, I equalize the total energy of the races and then match up the fractions and look for horses with good shape, or ones that have excuses.
The result have been satisfactory, and with a lot less work than using varinats, etc. Idon't play enough harness to really have a great feel for it yet, but after next week, my work load drops a lot and will have more time to play around with it.
If you can get a hold of Steve Chaplin's book, he goes into great detail explaining shape and fitness using factions.

[melman]

Tom your post is "talking my talk" on capping harness. I think you are aware that www.kimstarr.org has a look of exactly the type of thing you are talking about. The handicapping archives section of that site is big on "shape". Good stuff.

[trying2win]

Melman,

I agree with a lot of what you mentioned in your first post on this thread with the odd exception.

I'm not overly concerned about final times at the harness races. Internal fractions mean more to me than final times. I don't even know if par times would improve my harness handicapping results.

As for the driver or trainer, the only eliminations I'll make in this area are if the driver and/or trainer has a 5% win average or lower, as listed in the Trackmaster past performance stats.

The speed, class, driver and trainer ratings that come with ASH software, have proven very helpful in obtaining profits the past few months at Fraser Downs, Flamboro Downs and The Meadowlands. However, these same ASH software ratings have not performed as well at tracks like Woodbine, Balmoral, or Dover Downs. So, it's the old story...You have to check to see what works or doesn't work at each individual track.

At tracks not performing well with ASH software ratings, I'm studying to see if past performance line or trainer angles might work out better.

As for the big-priced winners at the harness races you mention...I agree they are obtainable. I find you have to go against-the-grain sometimes, and do some unorthodox handicapping while trying to hit the longshots. Things like betting horses moving up in class, or a private purchase by an owner/trainer. It's tough to win from outside posts at a racetrack, but if the circumstances (and price) justify the extra risk, I believe you have to go against the public's reluctance to back these horses, and bet your selection. A good example was at Flamboro Downs on Thurs. Feb. 10/05 in the 10th race. Sparkling Town was picked 2nd by ASH software. Everything said take-a-chance and make the bet. Check out the result at the Standardbred Canada website.

As for making a bet on horses starting from outside posts, the circumstances have to be right before making a bet. Just because ASH software picks it near the top and the price is generous, doesn't mean I'll make the bet. Not only that, even if the bet looks like it should be made, there is still the lengthy runouts at times to consider. We each have a comfort zone when it comes to losing streaks. Even so, betting the 7 and 8 post horses in the right situation has proven to be very profitable at Flamboro Downs. On the other hand, at a track like Balmoral Park, betting horses in the 9 and 10 posts seem to have brought only negative results for me. Like I mentioned earlier, you have to check out what's working or not working at each individual track.

At a track like Fraser Downs, the lower-priced horses listed in the top four with ASH software have proven to be more profitable, than searching for longshots.

T2W

[trying2win]

Stone Cold Quick in the 11th race at Flamboro Downs on Fri. Feb. 11/05 was another good longshot bet. This horse was starting from the 7 post and was picked 1st by ASH software. Did he win? No, he finished 5th. Right longshot selection, just wrong result!

This is an example to show you that you're not going to win them all.

T2W

[sq764]

on 7/8 and mile tracks I would not be deterred by an 8,9 or 10 hole if the horse matches up and shows value on th tote.. The tough hole might actually help keep their value there..