Updated 3YO Rankings (as of 7 Feb)

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Below are my updated rankings (as of 7 Feb 05). I did "tweak" the race weights a little which may have accounted for a few horses shifting one or two positions; but the basic pace weights remained the same. Again, only races ran at 1 1/16m or greater on the dirt were considered.

1. ROCKPORT HARBOR (4-4-0-0 $210,300) (1016-1026-1029-1026) (1013) John C. Servis 11/27/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 1-Neck Grd (2|200,000) Remsen S.
2. BALLETTO (UAE)* (5-3-2-0 $614,000) (1003-1015-1020-1027) (1027) Thomas Albertrani 10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m 2-3 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies S.
3. GALLOPING GROCER (4-3-1-0 $150,400) (1008-1020-1028-1026) (1013) Dominick A. Schettino 11/27/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 2-Neck Grd (2|200,000) Remsen S.
4. AFLEET ALEX (6-4-2-0 $680,800) (955-989-1012-1028) (1049) Timothy F. Ritchey 10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m 2-3/4 Grd (1|1,500,000) Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.
5. SUN KING (4-1-0-2 $244,850) (976-992-1013-1027) (1045) Nicholas P. Zito 10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m 3-1 Grd (1|1,500,000) Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.
6. WILKO (2-1-0-1 $833,580) (991-1007-1015-1018) (1015) Craig Dollase 12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m 3-1 Grd (1|449,500) Hollywood Futurity
7. CLOSING ARGUMENT (6-3-2-1 $511,984) (1031-1024-1020-1021) (1011) Kiaran P. McLaughlin 2/5/2005-GP10 1 1/8m 1-1 1/2 Grd (3|150,000) Holy Bull S.
8. CONSOLIDATOR (7-2-1-1 $480,260) (987-996-1013-1025) (1040) D. Wayne Lukas 10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m 4-2 Grd (1|1,500,000) Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.
9. SWEET CATOMINE* (5-4-1-0 $864,600) (998-1010-1012-1004) (977) Julio C. Canani 1/16/2005-SA3 1 1/16m 1-2 1/2 Grd (3|100,000) Santa Ysabel S.
10. SIS CITY* (8-4-0-2 $372,980) (1015-1007-1007-1020) (1034) Richard E. Dutrow 2/5/2005-GP6 1 1/8m 1-16 Grd (2|150,000) Davona Dale S.
11. KANSAS CITY BOY (7-1-3-1 $93,765) (1035-1030-1021-1018) (1001) Kenneth G. McPeek 2/5/2005-GP10 1 1/8m 2-1 1/2 Grd (3|150,000) Holy Bull S.
12. DECLAN`S MOON (4-4-0-0 $507,300) (991-1012-1015-1020) (1019) Ronald W. Ellis 12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m 1-1 Grd (1|449,500) Hollywood Futurity
13. HIGH FLY (4-3-0-1 $117,300) (1027-1022-1019-1018) (1004) William P. White 2/5/2005-GP10 1 1/8m 3-2 Grd (3|150,000) Holy Bull S.
14. ROMAN RULER (5-3-1-0 $330,800) (963-983-1004-1022) (1049) Bob Baffert 10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m 5-3 3/4 Grd (1|1,500,000) Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.
15. BANDINI (3-2-0-0 $39,180) (1050-1034-1013-1013) (1001) Todd A. Pletcher 2/5/2005-GP7 1 1/8m 1-9 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
16. SPLENDID BLENDED* (4-3-1-0 $327,400) (986-997-1001-1017) (1043) Neil D. Drysdale 12/19/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m 1-2 Grd (1|380,000) Hollywood Starlet S.
17. HARLINGTON (2-2-0-0 $47,400) (1016-1018-1005-1011) (1012) Todd A. Pletcher 1/15/2005-GP8 1 1/8m 1-3 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
18. RUNWAY MODEL* (10-4-2-2 $580,598) (955-1001-1002-999) (980) Bernard S. Flint 11/27/2004-CD9 1 1/16m 1-3 Grd (2|200,000) Golden Rod S.
19. CULINARY* (3-2-0-0 $78,000) (992-1011-1018-1016) (993) Michael Stidham 10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m 7-9 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies S.
20. PLAY WITH FIRE* (5-1-0-2 $107,000) (960-992-1007-1016) (1020) Mark A. Hennig 10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m 8-9 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies S.
21. SILENT BID (6-1-3-0 $57,460) (1023-1020-1012-1009) (995) D. Wayne Lukas 1/15/2005-SA6 1 1/16m 1-1 Mdn (46,000)
22. NOBLE CAUSEWAY (4-1-2-0 $35,340) (1000-1009-1006-1009) (1002) Nicholas P. Zito 2/5/2005-GP4 1 1/8m 1-2 Mdn (32,000)
23. GIACOMO (5-1-1-2 $131,716) (999-1008-1010-1001) (978) John A. Shirreffs 2/5/2005-SA7 1 1/8m 3-1 Stk (100,000) Sham S.
24. GREATER GOOD (5-3-0-1 $226,275) (956-981-993-1009) (1036) Robert E. Holthus 11/27/2004-CD11 1 1/16m 1-1 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) Kentucky Jockey Club S.
25. PAPI CHULLO (3-0-2-0 $32,160) (1000-1006-1012-1001) (974) Salvador G. Gonzalez 2/5/2005-SA7 1 1/8m 2-1 Stk (100,000) Sham S.
26. SENSE OF STYLE* (5-3-0-0 $369,000) (968-1004-1015-1010) (983) Patrick L. Biancone 10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m 9-12 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies S.
27. SOUTHERN AFRICA (3-0-0-0 $32,790) (1000-1008-1004-991) (959) Michael Puhich 2/5/2005-SA7 1 1/8m 7-7 Stk (100,000) Sham S.
28. LOYALTON (4-1-1-1 $33,588) (994-1006-1006-1006) (994) Jerry Hollendorfer 12/16/2004-GG8 1 1/16m 1-4 Mdn (26,500)
29. RUSH BAY (4-1-2-1 $87,755) (968-996-1000-1006) (1010) Thomas M. Amoss 11/27/2004-CD11 1 1/16m 2-1 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) Kentucky Jockey Club S.
30. STORM THIEF (3-1-2-0 $42,400) (1018-1006-1004-1004) (998) Richard E. Dutrow 1/9/2005-Aqu7 1 1/16m 2-Neck Alw (NW1X|44,000)

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1. (1) ROCKPORT HARBOR (4-4-0-0 $210,300)
11/27/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m (1016-1026-1029-1026) (1013) 1008 1-Neck Grd (2|200,000) quickly in front, set pace inside, dug in resolutely on rail
11/2/2004-Aqu8 1m (1017-1019-1021-1012) (979) 1005 1-6 1/4 Grd (3|100,000) speed in hand, soon clear, set pace, drew away in hand, handily
10/12/2004-Pha9 6.5f (1000-993-na-1006) (1016) 995 1-7 1/2 Alw (NW1X|21,000) off slowest, sent up inside, drew off, ridden out
9/12/2004-Pha1 5.5f (983-995-na-998) (998) 982 1-8 3/4 Mdn (21,200) set pace, drew off smartly, handy winner

2. (4) BALLETTO (UAE) (5-3-2-0 $614,000)
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (1003-1015-1020-1027) (1027) 1007 2-3 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000) moved out 5-1/2,forwardly placed,bid 1/4,in tight 1/8,no match
10/9/2004-Bel6 1 1/16m (1010-1014-1021-1019) (1004) 1000 1-3/4 Grd (1|500,000) in hand inside, inside move turn, dug in gamely inside, driving
9/19/2004-Bel8 1m (952-972-991-1002) (1027) 1001 2-1 Grd (1|300,000) close up inside, came wide for drive, angled in, game finish
8/2/2004-Sar3 6.5f (1010-1003-na-991) (969) 992 1-3/4 Alw (NW1X|47,000) bothered start, in hand early, inside move, gamely on rail

3. (3) GALLOPING GROCER (4-3-1-0 $150,400)
11/27/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m (1008-1020-1028-1026) (1013) 1008 2-Neck Grd (2|200,000) speed outside in hand, outside move, dug in gamely stretch
10/23/2004-Bel4 1m (999-1005-1015-1012) (1000) 996 1-7 1/2 Stk (100,000) in charge from start, drew away on own courage, handily
9/17/2004-Bel3 6.5f (964-965-na-990) (1021) 983 1-12 1/2 Alw (NW1X|43,000) stumbled start, speed outside, drew clear in hand, ridden out
8/22/2004-Sar3 5f (990-978-na-1006) (1008) 1000 1-11 3/4 Mdn (41,000) speed outside, drew away in hand, widened under hand ride

4. (2) AFLEET ALEX (6-4-2-0 $680,800)
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (955-989-1012-1028) (1049) 1017 2-3/4 Grd (1|1,500,000) bobbld start,bmpd,settld 4w,bid 4-5w 2nd turn,lead 1/4,outfinishd
10/9/2004-Bel7 1 1/16m (995-1003-1015-1027) (1047) 1014 2-1/2 Grd (1|500,000) in hand early, between rivals, swung wide into stretch, gamely
8/21/2004-Sar9 7f (1005-1016-na-1011) (997) 1012 1-Neck Grd (1|250,000) bumped start, hustled, inside turn, wide move, ducked out, got up
7/29/2004-Sar8 6f (977-1001-na-1023) (1058) 1009 1-5 1/4 Grd (2|150,000) unhurried outside, 5 wide move turn, drew away when roused

5. (5) SUN KING (4-1-0-2 $244,850)
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (976-992-1013-1027) (1045) 1020 3-1 Grd (1|1,500,000) rated inside,rail bid 3/8,dueled,bmpd 3/16,gamely,outfinished
10/9/2004-Bel7 1 1/16m (1005-1007-1016-1025) (1035) 1015 3-1 3/4 Grd (1|500,000) speed 3 wide, contested pace, weakened inside final furlong
9/17/2004-Bel6 1m (959-990-995-1008) (1040) 1000 1-1/2 Mdn (46,000) bobbled start, 4 wide move turn, dug in determinedly, prevailed
8/28/2004-Sar3 6.5f (871-957-na-988) (1029) 985 4-9 Mdn (45,000) awkward start, outrun early, wandered through stretch

6. (7) WILKO (2-1-0-1 $833,580)
12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (991-1007-1015-1018) (1015) 1009 3-1 Grd (1|449,500) speed, stalked inside,bid rail 2nd turn,came out lane,lost place
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (984-992-1011-1029) (1057) 1019 1-3/4 Grd (1|1,500,000) settled 3wide,vied3-4w 2nd turn,dropped out 1/4,came again,gamely

7. (82) CLOSING ARGUMENT (6-3-2-1 $511,984)
2/5/2005-GP10 1 1/8m (1031-1024-1020-1021) (1011) 1005 1-1 1/2 Grd (3|150,000) chased inside, rallied, took over stretch, edged away late
12/4/2004-DeD8 1 1/16m (1014-1014-1011-991) (940) 996 2-1 1/2 Stk (1,000,000) pressed pace, 3wide first turn, late bid, no match, held place
11/13/2004-Crc8 7f (1005-1006-na-998) (982) 994 2-4 Stk (150,000) well placed, 3 wide turn, no match, up for 2nd
10/23/2004-Crc121 1/16m (1010-996-998-989) (959) 987 3-5 1/4 Stk (R|400,000) bumped 1st turn, stalked pace, 3 wide far turn, weakened

8. (8) CONSOLIDATOR (7-2-1-1 $480,260)
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (987-996-1013-1025) (1040) 1018 4-2 Grd (1|1,500,000) bumped start,tracked outside,bid 3/8,dueled,bumped 3/16,gave way
10/9/2004-Kee7 1 1/16m (1001-998-1002-1013) (1027) 1000 1-2 Stk (500,000) tracked pace, 4w,took over,energetic handling,driving
8/21/2004-Sar9 7f (1003-1008-na-982) (943) 999 4-13 Grd (1|250,000) hit gate start, bumped after start, 4 wide turn, inside stretch
7/29/2004-Sar8 6f (993-993-na-1009) (1031) 1004 3-5 1/2 Grd (2|150,000) speed outside, chased 3 wide, good finish outside

9. (6) SWEET CATOMINE (5-4-1-0 $864,600)
1/16/2005-SA3 1 1/16m (998-1010-1012-1004) (977) 988 1-2 1/2 Grd (3|100,000) stalked pace, off rail,bid btwn,led 3-1/2,inched clear,gamely
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (978-1006-1016-1033) (1061) 1013 1-3 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000) rated between,blckd 2nd turn,chckd 5/16,drifted in 1/8,drew clear
10/2/2004-SA9 1 1/16m (987-985-1002-1016) (1038) 1002 1-4 Grd (2|200,000) 3 wide 7/8,chased,outside move,surged 4wd,led 1/4,clear
8/28/2004-Dmr8 7f (969-985-na-996) (1001) 986 1-3/4 Grd (1|250,000) hopped break,chased wide, 5wide turn, into lane, collared foe

10. (9) SIS CITY (8-4-0-2 $372,980)
2/5/2005-GP6 1 1/8m (1015-1007-1007-1020) (1034) 1020 1-16 Grd (2|150,000) set pace, in hand, drew off, strong hand ride
11/27/2004-Aqu7 1 1/8m (984-1003-1008-1012) (1011) 998 1-3 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) hustled clear, set pace, responded when roused, kept to drive
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (1018-1022-1021-1023) (1011) 1006 4-5 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000) broke in,carried 4w 1st turn,pressed,lead 7/16,vied past 1/8,wknd
10/9/2004-Bel6 1 1/16m (1028-1025-1026-1016) (984) 1000 3-1 1/2 Grd (1|500,000) hustled to front, set pace inside, drifted out stretch, gamely

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11. (-) KANSAS CITY BOY (7-1-3-1 $93,765)
2/5/2005-GP10 1 1/8m (1035-1030-1021-1018) (1001) 1006 2-1 1/2 Grd (3|150,000) set pace, angled in backstretch, outfinished, held 2nd
1/15/2005-FG9 1m (947-947-967-986) (1027) 991 3-1/4 Grd (3|100,000) restrained off rail, bid second turn, exchanged bumps,outfinished
11/24/2004-CD10 1 1/16m (988-983-981-992) (1008) 987 1-8 1/4 Mdn (48,200) tracked pace,4w,took over, drew off,kept to task
10/21/2004-Kee3 6.5f (977-995-na-996) (984) 986 2-1 1/4 Mdn (50,000) never far back, ranged up 4-5w,loomed,no late gain,2ndbest

12. (11) DECLAN`S MOON (4-4-0-0 $507,300)
12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (991-1012-1015-1020) (1019) 1009 1-1 Grd (1|449,500) pulled,stalked,bid inside,btwn 5/16,inched away lane,held game
11/20/2004-Hol8 7f (992-1010-na-1011) (1003) 1008 1-2 Grd (3|100,000) stalked pace, 2 wide, 3 wide into lane,led,clear,ridden out
9/8/2004-Dmr8 7f (981-995-na-1028) (1058) 1013 1-Neck Grd (2|250,000) drifted out early,stalked off rail,bid btwn,brushed late,gamely
7/31/2004-Dmr3 5.5f (991-997-na-1004) (1005) 1011 1-5 Mdn (49,000) good early speed, dueled, inside, drew clear, ridden out

13. (-) HIGH FLY (4-3-0-1 $117,300)
2/5/2005-GP10 1 1/8m (1027-1022-1019-1018) (1004) 1000 3-2 Grd (3|150,000) chased pace, 3 wide bid, drifted in, steadied late, gave way
1/8/2005-GP7 1m (988-1007-1012-1019) (1026) 999 1-9 Stk (125,000) stalked pace, 3 wide, took over top stretch, drew off, ridden out
11/20/2004-Crc1 6.5f (994-1008-na-1011) (1007) 1004 1-3 Alw (NW1X|24,000) off a step slowly, stalked pace, on rail, drew clear, easily
10/9/2004-Crc9 6f (984-1005-na-1019) (1036) 993 1-9 1/4 Mdn (29,000) chased 3 wide, took over top stretch, drew off, driving

14. (12) ROMAN RULER (5-3-1-0 $330,800)
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (963-983-1004-1022) (1049) 1013 5-3 3/4 Grd (1|1,500,000) bmpd after start,steadied 7-1/2,hard held,angled out 1/8,empty
10/3/2004-SA7 1 1/16m (1005-1022-1019-1005) (967) 996 1-4 1/2 Grd (2|200,000) pulled early,stalked off rail,bid 2wd,led,clear 1/4,drifted in
9/8/2004-Dmr8 7f (973-989-na-1027) (1065) 1017 2-Neck Grd (2|250,000) off bit slow,tight,stdied early,chased,3wd bid,led,brushed,missed
8/15/2004-Dmr2 6.5f (956-988-na-1024) (1069) 1011 1-7 Grd (2|150,000) off slow,squeezed,drifted out,steadied 5/16,rallied,ridden out

15. (-) BANDINI (3-2-0-0 $39,180)
2/5/2005-GP7 1 1/8m (1050-1034-1013-1013) (1001) 997 1-9 Alw (NW1X|33,000) ducked in start, set pace, inside, drew off, driving
1/6/2005-GP7 7f (1003-1009-na-1011) (1004) 997 1-4 1/4 Mdn (32,000) vied for lead, on rail, drew away, driving
11/20/2004-Aqu4 6f (921-952-na-968) (994) 972 6-18 1/4 Mdn (45,000) awkward start, greenly, no rally

16. (13) SPLENDID BLENDED (4-3-1-0 $327,400)
12/19/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (986-997-1001-1017) (1043) 1002 1-2 Grd (1|380,000) pulled 3 wide early, dueled, 2 wide, led into lane,cleared
11/14/2004-Hol2 1 1/16m (1028-1009-1002-996) (976) 994 1-3 1/4 Alw (NW1X|39,000) pressed pace, 2 wide, led backstretch, clear, in hand
10/2/2004-SA9 1 1/16m (1004-1005-1005-1009) (1004) 999 2-4 Grd (2|200,000) rank, drifted wide 7/8,4wd move,dueled 3wd,no match,2nd best
9/6/2004-Dmr4 1m (979-969-983-1005) (1062) 986 1-5 Mdn (51,000) speed, angled in, set pressured pace, drifted out,ridden out

17. (15) HARLINGTON (2-2-0-0 $47,400)
1/15/2005-GP8 1 1/8m (1016-1018-1005-1011) (1012) 994 1-3 Alw (NW1X|33,000) stalked pace, 3 wide, took over far turn, drew clear, driving
11/28/2004-Aqu3 1m (991-1003-1000-992) (967) 992 1-Neck Mdn (46,000) off slowly, in hand early, 4 wide move, angled in, along in time

18. (14) RUNWAY MODEL (10-4-2-2 $580,598)
11/27/2004-CD9 1 1/16m (955-1001-1002-999) (980) 997 1-3 Grd (2|200,000) unhurried inside,move 4w far turn,inch to lead,steady drive,clear
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (984-1009-1017-1024) (1025) 1006 3-5 Grd (1|1,000,000) settled,rail rally 3/16,blocked 1/8 and 1/16,lost chance
10/8/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m (959-995-1003-1009) (1015) 1003 1-Head Grd (2|400,000) unhurried early, rail far turn,angled 4-5w,all out,in time
9/19/2004-AP9 1m (950-974-987-1007) (1051) 994 2-2 Grd (3|100,000) close up, just outside, rallied, second best

19. (17) CULINARY (3-2-0-0 $78,000)
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (992-1011-1018-1016) (993) 1003 7-9 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) 3wide 1st turn,just off pace,3-4w 2nd turn,bid 1/4,gave way
9/19/2004-AP9 1m (957-976-990-1011) (1059) 1002 1-2 Grd (3|100,000) middle of pack, 3 wide, rallied, drew off, driving
8/12/2004-AP6 1m (976-981-969-969) (959) 966 1-11 Mdn (30,000) middle of pack, 4 wide, rallied, drew off, handily

20. (-) PLAY WITH FIRE (5-1-0-2 $107,000)
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (960-992-1007-1016) (1020) 1003 8-9 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) 3w 1st turn,towards rear,inside 2nd turn,3w into lane,no threat
10/9/2004-Bel6 1 1/16m (964-994-1017-1012) (990) 997 4-3 3/4 Grd (1|500,000) outrun early, came wide for drive, good finish outside
9/19/2004-Bel8 1m (952-972-993-1001) (1015) 1000 3-1 3/4 Grd (1|300,000) close up between rivals, wide move, tried winner, weakened
8/20/2004-Sar8 7f (962-971-na-991) (1008) 995 3-7 1/2 Grd (2|250,000) bobbled start, outrun early, came wide into stretch, rallied

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21. (21) SILENT BID (6-1-3-0 $57,460)
1/15/2005-SA6 1 1/16m (1023-1020-1012-1009) (995) 993 1-1 Mdn (46,000) pulled btwn,bid inside, dueled, inched away 1/4,drifted out,held
12/26/2004-SA9 1 1/16m (1031-1039-1020-991) (917) 983 5-8 3/4 Mdn (46,000) speed, 2 wide, cleared, angled in, fought back 1/8, weakened
10/31/2004-CD4 1 1/16m (1014-992-990-994) (990) 986 2-6 3/4 Mdn (48,200) gained clear lead early, 3w,pace to lane,no match
10/15/2004-Kee107f (1011-1002-na-997) (981) 976 2-3 3/4 Mdn (50,000) drift in start,sent to fore inside,battled to lane,no match

22. (-) NOBLE CAUSEWAY (4-1-2-0 $35,340)
2/5/2005-GP4 1 1/8m (1000-1009-1006-1009) (1002) 985 1-2 Mdn (32,000) rated off pace, rallied inside, took over far turn, drew clear
1/6/2005-GP7 7f (985-994-na-1001) (1001) 991 2-4 1/4 Mdn (32,000) rated off pace, 3 wide turn, no match, up for 2nd
11/27/2004-Aqu2 7f (998-1006-na-1015) (1017) 990 2-3 Mdn (45,000) hustled along inside, came wide for drive, game finish outside
10/7/2004-Bel9 1m (969-972-995-988) (962) 973 5-7 1/2 Mdn (46,000) hustled along inside, inside trip, no rally

23. (16) GIACOMO (5-1-1-2 $131,716)
2/5/2005-SA7 1 1/8m (999-1008-1010-1001) (978) 1000 3-1 Stk (100,000) stalked 4 wide, bid 5/8, 3 wide 2nd turn, held 3rd
12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (959-991-1010-1018) (1025) 1013 2-1 Grd (1|449,500) off bit slow, settled, 2 wide, came out lane,rallied gamely
11/14/2004-Hol4 1 1/16m (971-999-1002-1003) (997) 997 3-2 Alw (NW1X|39,000) 3 wide 7-1/2, chased, off rail, 2 wide, lacked late response
10/22/2004-SA4 1 1/16m (984-998-1004-1003) (992) 996 1-10 Mdn (41,000) chased, 2 wide, bid 3 wide into lane,led, drew off, handily

24. (23) GREATER GOOD (5-3-0-1 $226,275)
11/27/2004-CD11 1 1/16m (956-981-993-1009) (1036) 996 1-1 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) unhurried early, near inside,4w far turn,rail in drive,gamely
11/6/2004-CD10 1m (960-979-989-998) (1012) 991 3-7 Grd (3|100,000) bumped start, outrun 4-5w, steadied,swung out from spill 1/4p
9/18/2004-TP10 1 1/16m (877-957-999-1006) (1013) 991 1-2 3/4 Grd (3|100,000) far back inside, 3 wide run 2nd turn, closed fast, going away
8/7/2004-ElP7 7f (971-971-na-999) (1027) 980 1-1 1/2 Mdn (23,700) rated in behind foes early,moved 4-5w lane,driving,clear

25. (22) PAPI CHULLO (3-0-2-0 $32,160)
2/5/2005-SA7 1 1/8m (1000-1006-1012-1001) (974) 1001 2-1 Stk (100,000) bobbled start, stalked pace, inside, rail bid lane,willingly
1/15/2005-SA6 1 1/16m (1013-1014-1008-1007) (1000) 992 2-1 Mdn (46,000) bit tight 7/8,chased,bit off rail,came out,3wd into lane,willing
12/18/2004-GG8 1m (939-962-981-989) (1005) 981 4-6 1/2 Stk (50,000) unhurried early, best stride too late

26. (25) SENSE OF STYLE (5-3-0-0 $369,000)
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (968-1004-1015-1010) (983) 1000 9-12 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) hopped start,jostled 7/8,between foes,4w 2nd turn,empty
10/8/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m (1003-1003-1006-1005) (995) 1002 5-2 Grd (2|400,000) well placed behind foes,lack room 1/8p
9/19/2004-Bel8 1m (930-969-998-1004) (1013) 1001 1-1 Grd (1|300,000) unprepared for start, outrun early, 4 wide move, gamely, clear
8/20/2004-Sar8 7f (986-997-na-1007) (1010) 1006 1-6 3/4 Grd (2|250,000) in hand outside, 3 wide move, drew away when asked, kept busy

27. (19) SOUTHERN AFRICA (3-0-0-0 $32,790)
2/5/2005-SA7 1 1/8m (1000-1008-1004-991) (959) 996 7-7 Stk (100,000) chased, btwn foes, bit tight 6-1/2,3wd into lane, no rally
12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (971-998-1009-1014) (1015) 1007 4-3 Grd (1|449,500) saved ground, stalked,waited bit 1/4,2wd into lane,outkicked
11/20/2004-Hol8 7f (970-992-na-1002) (1007) 1001 4-4 Grd (3|100,000) off bit slow,settled, inside, 2 wide turn,btwn into lane,no rally

28. (30) LOYALTON (4-1-1-1 $33,588)
12/16/2004-GG8 1 1/16m (994-1006-1006-1006) (994) 981 1-4 Mdn (26,500) set pace inside, responded stretch, drew off, ridden out
11/28/2004-GG3 6f (989-988-na-991) (983) 982 2-1 1/2 Mdn (26,500) pressed winner outside, weakened
10/16/2004-BM7 6f (992-992-na-976) (939) 970 3-3 Mdn (26,500) dueled 2w, led turn, weakened stretch
9/5/2004-BM6 6f (985-991-na-977) (940) 970 4-8 Mdn (26,500) stalked pace 3w, lugged in 1/8p, weakened

29. (26) RUSH BAY (4-1-2-1 $87,755)
11/27/2004-CD11 1 1/16m (968-996-1000-1006) (1010) 998 2-1 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) settled inside,lack room 5/16s, 4w in lane, good try
10/31/2004-CD4 1 1/16m (971-978-987-1006) (1038) 993 1-6 3/4 Mdn (48,200) tracked pace, 3-4w,took over 1/4p,drew off,driving
10/13/2004-Kee2 1 1/16m (945-967-977-988) (1006) 975 2-1 3/4 Mdn (50,000) lean in on foe near 1st turn, moved 4-5w,loomed,2ndbest
9/18/2004-AP5 6f (923-953-na-978) (1014) 974 3-8 3/4 Mdn (27,000) no speed, rallied, inside, belatedly

30. (29) STORM THIEF (3-1-2-0 $42,400)
1/9/2005-Aqu7 1 1/16m (1018-1006-1004-1004) (1010) 993 2-Neck Alw (NW1X|44,000) speed inside, set pace, dug in gamely on rail stretch
12/15/2004-Aqu1 1m 70yds (1028-998-989-1001) (1033) 978 1-1 1/4 Mdn (42,000) stalked 3 wide, bid 1/4 pole, led 1/16 pole, driving
11/12/2004-Aqu9 1m (1016-1003-987-981) (954) 985 2-10 1/4 Mdn (42,000) bumped start, contested pace, no match for winner, second best

[JPinMaryland]

THis is a nice service you're doing us. Can you explain what the numbers in green mean? I'm sure you've been asked a hundred times. Maybe you can direct us to website? Is it like CJ pace numbers w/ the leader and for the horse in question?

[sam i am]

Numbers represent the horse's speed figure at 1/4m, 1/2m, 3/4m, and the finish in the horse's most recent race. The number in paranthesis is the horse's late speed figure--usually the last 1/4m.

If I am wrong Que will correct me.

[JPinMaryland]

okay makes sense so far.Then what parameters go into the "speed figure?" I assume pace is accounted for in there? It is a number in the denominator or some such? Is there a final "summary" number as an overall score? Does the system emphasize the late speed over the other speeds?

[Tom]

Que explained things on 3/18/2003:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=42959#post42959

[Que]

JP,

Thanks to Tom I was able to locate my previous explanation. Specifically,

My pace figures are as follows, i.e. (976-1010-1019-1022) (1022) 1020, where 976 is the horse's pace rating to the 1/4m mark, 1010 is the horse's pace rating from the start to the 1/2m mark, 1019 is the horse's pace rating from the start to the 3/4m mark, and 1022 is the horse's pace rating for the entire race (start-to-finish). The number in parenthesis, i.e. (1022), is the horse's late speed rating--usually the last quarter mile. And the last number in black, i.e. 1020, is the horse's "relative" speed rating for that particular race--relative to all other entries in that race. Any positive or negative discrepancy between this figure and the horse's final figure (in bold green) indicates a strong or weak field in that particular race, respectively. The rankings are based on races ran a 1 1/16 miles or more (on the dirt), and are weighted based on the results of all Three Year Old Grade One races raced at those distances in the last three years. Also, the horse's last race must have been ran on the dirt at 1 1/16m or greater or it won't be ranked.

For example, using the "relative" speed rating as a guide in my latest rankings, I'm be tempted to downgrade ROCKPORT HARBOR and BALLETTO, while upgrading AFLEET ALEX and SUN KING. Currently I haven't tried to quantify it yet in my rankings so I just go with gut feel. Also I'm suspect of my GP numbers this year, so I'd take that as another gut input.

Best of luck, Que.

[JPinMaryland]

Okay thank you que, three questions:


1) How is pace rating and late speed rating calculated? If proprietary let us know.


2) Clarification on this:

the last number in black, i.e. 1020, is the horse's "relative" speed rating for that particular race--relative to all other entries in that race. Any positive or negative discrepancy between this figure and the horse's final figure (in bold green) indicates a strong or weak field in that particular race....

To be sure: if the last number in black IS GREATER THAN the bold green number, this indicates a strong field?

3) What do the rankings represent? Who has the best overall speed or who has the best late speed? Is it based on average speed or who is likely to throw a whopper race (albeit not consistently).

[Que]

JP,

I think you asked this same question last year, and below was my response.

1. "Well here goes... the numbers are all generated from raw pace times, and trip factors and weight are not considered. To start, raw universal pace figures are generated by using simple pace functions. These numbers are then adjusted by the track's profile by calculating an average pace rating for each distance at each track, thereby normalizing the pace ratings for each track across the distance, i.e. 6f races at CD have much higher raw 1/4 numbers than other tracks. These numbers are then adjusted by an average distance rating which normalizes all the times by distance and surface at each track, for example it will typically downgrade the pace numbers in a 7f race and upgrade the numbers in a 1m race. These numbers are adjusted yet again by the track's variant (which is adjusted quarterly), for example routes at Santa Anita are adjusted downward while routes at the Fair Grounds are adjusted upward. If the race was run on the turf, then these pace numbers are adjusted by a turf-dirt adjustment factor, which varies by each track and distance. Finally, these numbers are then adjusted by a daily variant which is calculated using pace projections. I'm sure I confused everyone by now, but although the calculations are rather simple to calculate there are lots of interim steps and adjustments based on race pars, track pars, track/daily variants, etc. Late speed figures are calculated separately, but use the same adjustments as above. (I also calculate yet one more number which is what I call a comparative speed figure--this figure is based each horse's final speed rating, and is adjusted by how each of the entries in that race perform in subsequent races.) The rankings are then generated using a model of all three year old Grade 1 races ran at 9 furlongs or longer. Despite all these caculations and manipulations, I'm not convinced my numbers are better than anybody elses, but I think they do give me an edge."

2. Yes. The Black number in bold can be used to estimate the strength of a particular field. The closer the number in black is to the horse's final figure the better. However, the number in black is also a final speed figure, so the higher this number is the better.

3. "The rankings are then generated using a model of all three year old Grade 1 races ran at 9 furlongs or longer." Each pace call (rating) has a weigthing that has been optimized to predict the races above, i.e G1 3YO 9f+ dirt races. The strongest weight is at the 3/4m call, followed the final figure, the late figure, and the 1/2m call. The 1/4m call is not used in the rating. The horse's rating is then calculated using the horse's best rating plus the horse's last rating multiplied by 2. If the horse's last rating is less than it's average rating, then the the horse's average rating is used instead of the horse's last rating. The horse's are then ranked in descending order. However I am thinking about tweaking the rankings yet one more time where the horse's rating will be equal to the horse's highest race rating + last race rating + average rating. I've also used rankings that were solely based on the horse's last rating. Anyway, I haven't changed the way the pace ratings are computed in years, but I have tinkered with how the race ratings are combined into a final composite number.

Que.

[JPinMaryland]

Yes I did ask the same qeustion, last fall I think it was. Sorry for being redundant these threaded discussions just kill me. One day I am arguing about final fractions and the next day I cant find the discussion. Thanks for last set of info, havent had time to digest it yet.