cj's picks

[formula_2002]

Hard to pass by the results posted at ,
http://www.pacefigures.com/handicapping.html.
10 race cards producing a profit of almost 100%.., without asking for some further clarification.

Any one care to post some further results ?

This sounds like the best thing since baked bread.
Curious if it turns into burnt toast.
Also curious if it doesn't

Do we have some real results data to look at?

You know what I'm looking for..

[cj]

Those four rules have been used consistently and were listed before the races. Last week sucked, but this week is going to be a big one, so that's four of five winning weekends betting EVERY race at four tracks. Not too shabby.

I will say if I did the entire week, the results would be on the plus side as well, but I just don't have time to track this every day. I know this because I've hit some very big prices during the week, a couple over 50 and one over 70. I'm first and foremost a bettor, and that is where I choose to spend my free time when the kids go to bed.

The figures are there every day if anyone wants to track them. I have no idea if it will remain on the + side, and to be honest, I surely don't bet by any system, but I had to come up with something easy to verify.

[cj]

Actually Joe, I thought you were talking about this link, which is based on the numbers posted every night before the races, and I update this each week, no backfitting here.

http://www.pacefigures.com/weekend.html

I would never be silly enough to think I'm going to win 100% profit over any stretch of time, sorry about the confusion.

[Tom]

Uh...CJ......Don't you know you CANNOT win at this game????? :rolleyes: :D

[Kreed]

Joe, Formula, it seems like you left your brain in a jar by Fabricand's book
or some Stat lecture 101. CJ's figs are Very Great --- in the RIGHT hands.
But then again, isn't that the way of most situations? My company hires
about 200 salesmen, and I would say that only 20% remain; the rest are
canned. And so it goes: Handicapping is like selling ... The productive
salesmen have the Right Mix ... tech + common sense + patience + bOLDNESS.
Too much viengar ruins the salad. You obviously have the "Evaluation
part down, but, to me, you seem to lack "When to take the plunge" part.
CJ has very good figs, but it still takes a real active brain to apply them.
And, sometimes, CJ's figs are so obvious, that there is NO OTHER WAY.
It just all depends, and that's what I see your weakness as of now.

[cj]

... but this week is going to be a big one...

Umm...It just got bigger!

GP Race 10
11 $34.60 $19.00 $6.00

[Tom]

Gulfstream.....

Ka-ching, ka-ching.

Glad I ended my boycott...this track rocks. :D

[cj]

Tom,

Before this year I have had ZERO luck at GP, but have really rocked there this year. I think this new surface has really helped, especially the turf. It is so nice and big and not a lot of trouble to be found. Hats off to Frank, without the video signal, I wouldn't be playing there much.

Joe,

Here is the summary for all my picks, every race, four tracks:

This week (Feb 5-6):

Aqueduct, 18 races, 7 winners, 39% winners, ROI +130%
Oaklawn, 19 races, 3 winners, 16% winners, ROI -64%
Gulfstream, 21 races, 6 winners, 29% winners, ROI +67%
Santa Anita, 18 races, 6 winners, 33% winners, ROI +38%

Feb 5-6 : 76 Races, 22 winners, 29% winners, ROI +42%

Past Weeks:

Jan 29-30: 75 Races, 15 winners, 20% winners, ROI -40%
Jan 22-23: 77 races, 23 winners, 30% winners, ROI +14%
Jan 15-16: 76 races, 21 winners, 28% winners, ROI +30%
Jan 8-9: 60 races, 27 winners, 45% winners, ROI +92%
=========================================
Totals: 364 races, 108 winners, 30% winners, ROI +25%

[Zaf]

Joe,

I have been using them for over a year now. I haven't had any burnt toast yet. They are excellent numbers and many on this board (good handicappers) are in praise of them. They seem to point out horses that the public simply misses. My bread and butter has been horses in the 5-1 to 8-1 range. These horses often are good enough to win but missed by final time speed figures. CJ has spent years and endless time programming the adjustments to create the performance figure. Boy it has paid off :cool:

ZAFONIC

[Zaf]

In addition , take a look who is winning the Pick 4 contest on the Board (Buddha). Buddha is a CJ fig guy !

ZAFONIC

[peakpros]

I used CJ figs exclusively last year at Monmouth and had a terrific meet. I took an hour each night to write them on my racing form and with my elementary trip and bias notes did very well.


Recently I have had some time off so I have been doing a little simulcast wagering at Monmouth.

I saw a number of people using CJ sheets in printed form.

The secret is out and I feel it will be a little tougher this year at Monmouth Park.


Cj is a credit to our sport and a terrrifc mentor for me and I believe many others.

[Tom]

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Andy Beyer and DRf are still comptemplating how to make a pace figure. Maybe Craig will send them a copy of his first book. Heh, heh, heh. :D

[Zaf]

Wow , About a year ago it seemed like there were only 4 or 5 of us using them. Now its seems half the guys on this site consult em and CJ's figs are circulating at Monmouth :eek: I hope my $18 horses don't become $8.00 horses in the coming months.

ZAFONIC

[Buddha]

In addition , take a look who is winning the Pick 4 contest on the Board (Buddha). Buddha is a CJ fig guy !

ZAFONIC


And loving them. Nothing but praise for the numbers.

[Shacopate]

As mentioned,

CJ's figs are powerful, and in the right hands --- deadly.

I don't own any software, but I think it's a shame that his program doesn't get any play in the software forum.

$100 --- some serious bang for your buck.

[hracingplyr]

his figs are great and don't forget on his weekend plays he is taking the horses last fig and alot of times u don't use the last fig especially when it comes to 6 and 7 fur races.

See You At The Windows

Bob

[BIG RED]

There is one thing I like about Mr.cj's #'s is how the horses form cycle sticks out and slaps you.You can have 6 harses @ SA and 5 are off form, and by his #'s, the lone horse can reach the race par, who cares what his odds are, BET IT! You can bring races down to 2 or 3 real contenders on that alone.

Cj also frequents the war room and gives his insights about the next race( if he's not playing with his children :D ). Never mind his #'s, cj rocks. I have been laid up for two months now and told cj in the beginning of the year I would have time now to teat his #'s in my own way. Very glad I did, like anything else, it's how you apply them yourself. If not, heck, you can use them straight up and still do well.

[hracingplyr]

Interesting post Red, how do u go about using the numbers regarding form cycle? could u point to anything going at gp today that would be a good example?

[BIG RED]

PM'ed you

[formula_2002]

PM'ed you

It's easy to see the LOVE here for the figs..

However I'm looking for the statistical performance of cj's performance figures in terms of incremental odds.

Perhaps its' worth the time any money to gather my own "statistical performance figures" by buying cj's program and subscribing to the Formulator files..

I would only do this if the program's (cj's) output file can be exported easily to a data base format.

Can that be done ?.. Does anyone here do it?

Thanks

Joe M

[legs]

Any chance you could PM me on Gp. just started looking at his site.Trying to get started thanks

[BIG RED]

Sent, and don't forget, we are all still learning.

[cj]

Hi all,

Thanks to everyone for the kind words!

I've done a lot of thinking on this today, and I'm just not very comfortable discussing my numbers or program on PAs board anymore. I don't want to come across as somebody using PA's site to try to sell a program. I never started selling to make a lot of money in the first place, as the price I charge hopefully shows. Of course I'm human and love to hear that people like my work.

I'm not sure how many of you know the story of how I came to start with a computer program. I used to make these numbers with a programmable TI-82 calculator. It was very tedious and time consuming, and really limited the tracks I could play. My brother, who also posts here and is at the about.com site a lot, was always bugging me to write a program to do it automatically, but having dabbled in programming, I knew how many hours that would entail, and never seemed to want to put the time into it as an active duty military guy with a wife and three kids. That was until I was sent to Saudi Arabia for nearly five months and restricted to a couple mile wide base. I finally decided to give it a try with not much else to do in the middle of nowhere, and that is how this all started. Some guys on the board here...buddha, zafonic, jmilkowsi (brother), and especially keilan really helped me put it all together and still do to this day.

One thing that really shocked me was one of the posters saying he saw people with printed versions of my numbers at Monmouth Park. In my wildest dreams, I never imagined this would happen, and while flattering, its also a bit alarming. I'm first and foremost a bettor, as I've said many times before. I've been doing quite well for the past nearly five years now, and I'm sure my numbers have a lot to do with it. I do realize though, that in a paramutuel setting, it isn't hard to lose your edge if everyone has the same info that you do. I'm grappling with the issue now of how many of these programs do I want out there? I don't have a lot of worries about people using them to bet NYRA or Gulfstream or SoCal with the huge pools, but if 20 guys are using them at Penn, it could be an issue I would think. Please don't take this as some ploy to get people to rush and buy the program, its a real legitamite concern I'm having.

This is what I've been trying to get across to Formula when we debate from time to time. His database is testing factors that are widely available and will be very tough to profit from over time. But, if you can find a niche where you have better info, you can win. Pace numbers aren't the only way, but you have to find something the public isn't betting that works and jump on it.

If anyone wants to ask me questions about the figures, please email me, either through my site or through the board here. Of course I like reading how others use them, I just don't feel comfortable jumping in. As BigRed says, I'm in the War Room quite often and usually discuss races if asked as well.

Craig

[formula_2002]

Hi all,

I used to make these numbers with a programmable TI-82 calculator.
Craig

I used to make figures with a hand held calculator that cost $80.. Today, they give that type of calculator away for free. :)

[PaceAdvantage]

CJ, you have been a fantastic contributor from day one. If anyone has earned the right to talk about their stuff, it's you. The policy here restricts "unauthorized" advertising. Consider yourself authorized.

I know you're not the kind of person who is going to go and spam every board here with an ad about your program or numbers. But please don't feel uncomfortable maintaining the status quo. It's fine with me if it's fine with you.

[Suff]

CJ, you have been a fantastic contributor from day one. If anyone has earned the right to talk about their stuff, it's you. The policy here restricts "unauthorized" advertising. Consider yourself authorized.

I know you're not the kind of person who is going to go and spam every board here with an ad about your program or numbers. But please don't feel uncomfortable maintaining the status quo. It's fine with me if it's fine with you.

Thats a Nice post Mike. And your right on. I've been lucky enough to spend time at Saratoga and Aqueduct with CJ and His Family.

Class act. All the way. A real gentleman and a blast to have around. Our Friendship has continued electronically for a couple of years now and I'm very grateful to know him. Super Super Person.

[JustMissed]

CJ, I don't blame you.

If Joe(Formula_2002)offered to test my results I would run like hell also.

Wise move on your part, glad to see your War College training has paid off.

JM :D

P.S. If Joe tries to buy your program please let us know. We will take up a collection and give you $200 not to sell to him.heheheh.

[formula_2002]

CJ, I don't blame you.

If Joe(Formula_2002)offered to test my results I would run like hell also.

Wise move on your part, glad to see your War College training has paid off.

JM :D

P.S. If Joe tries to buy your program please let us know. We will take up a collection and give you $200 not to sell to him.heheheh.

Hey, if it passed my test, I would be the best endorsement for it :) ,,He's ahead $200 already!

[Kreed]

Formula ... u breathe Fresh air in2 this room ... Yes, i agree with you that CJ's
figs have NOT passed any tests so far. ***Just 4 the record: I LOVE capping;
I'm VERY eager to win; but I would NEVER EVER think of making a living at the
races. Now, think, Formula, before U type: ALL 3:1's are not, almost Never
alike. Each race is its own paradox ... if u could rate paradoxes on a scale of,
say, 1 to 3, with 3 being the most nasty, capricous of paradoxes, then most
race outcomes are 1 & 2 ... with just enough 3's to keep US searching. CJ
adds a nice slice of data to decision-making and isn't that the kind of info YOU
seek? In stat terms, CJ's figs are moderator variables --- why do some 3:1's
romp & others fail? U gotta get more discerning Formula & Move Beyong group
stats. derek .. PS: Good comment Just Missed. lol

[toetoe]

So that's a compliment to cj, right?


p.s. Hehe.

[Niko]

CJ,
I told a friend about how good your figures were..and others probably are too.
I copied some of your old posts to try and make better figs than what I subscribe to but haven't come close to yours..probably because I don't know the secret formula of 16 ingrediants...they are quite impressive and I hope sharing them doesn't kill the value for you.
You still have to know how to play them. And a HUGE thanks for making them available. If I would've went with your top pick in the feature at Gulfsteam this weekend I could have won a local tournament. But at 4-1 ML I thought he would be bet so I went with another to try to beat the fav that race.

[Tom]

CJ = class act.

[Valuist]

CJ-

Just saw that thread on the Thorograph board re: the Holy Bull. I think you may actually gave the Sheetheads some pause for thought on pace. They seemed dumbfounded that pace could actually be quantified.

[kenwoodallpromos]

There is plenty of room on this thread for positive talk; including about 2002, who seems to be intertesting in exploring the possible that CJ's is worth looking at.
Iti is refreshing to read a thread where there are all or mostly compliments about methods. Thanks CJ.

[andicap]

Like CJ, my nephew is in the army. (In Korea, Thank God, not Iraq.)

I'm always tell him, "You're always telling me how bored you are. Why can't you be more like CJ and come up with a great set of speed/pace figures in your down time? You're not even married! OK, CJ's got the t-breds cornered. Work on the trotters!!!"
(Oh yeah, Joe G. has already done that.)

Noooooooooo, he'd rather chase women and drink beer.

:D :D

[JustRalph]

Noooooooooo, he'd rather chase women and drink beer.
:D :D

The guys who were in the Air Force in Korea in the 80's always wanted to go back.........they loved it. The prices were so low that they lived like kings on the money uncle sam paid them. House girls and more................for a pittance

[Glitchy]

As an on-again/off-again lurker for about a year, I would like my first post to congratulate PA on one thing:

Somehow he has managed (along with all of you) to remove alot of the coarseness in the discourse that comes with 1) the Internet 2) discussion forums and 3) gamblers (present Company excluded, of course). This is a feat akin to hitting the Pick Six @ Ruidoso Downs (do they even have one?). :D :D

FYI, I'm a weekend player (job constraints) with a love for stats and #'s, but also a realization that this game is both an art and a science (the ultimate challenge).

In keeping with the thread, I have a question for all you guys that use CJs figs (and you, too CJ).

What percentage of your handicapping decision for a particular race are based on CJ's figs (with obvious allowances for race distance and surface) and what is based on PPs, angles, etc.??

Look forward to future conversations......

[PaceAdvantage]

Glitchy....thanks, and welcome aboard!!

BTW, great avatar!

[JPinMaryland]

I know the feeling that you have about discussing your system, but looking at it realistically nature abhors an information vaccuum.

Just like money abhors a vaccuum or dissolved solutes abhor a pressure gradient, information has a natural tendency to flow rather than remain secret.

You are going to cut off your nose to spite your face if you stop talking about, just a hunch from me, but a strong one based on working with businesses. Let me guess, most of the good word of mouth on your figs has come via the internet? THis assumption I am making in all this.

If that is so, and you stop discussing it on internet, interest will drop off in your product, process, whatever.

THere is a problem that you are worried about the information cutting into the mutual pools. It is not unfounded worry, but it is one that should be managed (like distributing risk) not totally avoided.

I.e you could simply raise the price of your service in order to cover all those 20-1 longshots you will no longer be getting. If you did the numbers correctly, (and it is given that you are the numbers expert) you could make up for hte losses by increasinging revenue AND (here's the kicker) you could really smooth out those bumps in the profit/loss column. Just like farmers take out futures in order to cover for droughts you are distributing risk.

Or you could look at it another way, if your figs do come out and revolutionize betting, all that means is that the information has been totally distributed and no one has an advantage. A true competive person would simply work on new and better numbers, in order to once again beat the field. The only way this would not be true is if your numbers were the last word on betting; no one thinks this, there is always room for improvement. So in the unlikely event your numbers bring down the mutual pools, there is simply more room for better numbers...

One thing I think is true, the holding your breath till you turn blue thing, will just make your enterprise go backwards. Bet the house on that.

[Buddha]

I.e you could simply raise the price of your service in order to cover all those 20-1 longshots you will no longer be getting.

I think that is one part that everyone seems to be forgetting. CJ is not in the software business to make money. He has said that numerous times.

[Dave Schwartz]

Some times I feel that way, too. <G>

[formula_2002]

I managed to accumulate about 1600 horses with cj's figures and here are the results from 01/30/2005 through 02/10/2005.

It certainly is not enough races for me to make a final judgment, but given that these results are all “out of sample”, I find them very impressive.

Just using the top final “performance figure” and not differentiating between track surface (dirt to turf or turf to dirt).

Odds range >0 and <=5, public picked 24% winners, top fig picked 36% winners

Odds range >=6 and <=15, public picked 8% winner, top fig picked 21% winners

Odds range >=16, public picked 3% winners, top figure picked 11% winner.

I had to write a few programs to get to the above data and have checked it as best I could.

I’m fairly comfortable with the results produced by the program.

I would hope the “fig pick” advantage continues.
Good work CJ!!

Joe M

[levinmpa]

I just began looking at CJ's figs the other day. I am going to use them as a final determinator after finding my own contenders. So far, so good. I have hit a couple of nice prices that CJ's figs confirmed as competitive. I was also able to get off of a few losers that I normally would have played because their figs were not competitive.

My best case scenario is that I do my normal handicapping to identify the races that appear to be either hot or cold paced. I then find contenders that will best fit these hot or cold pace scenarios. I will then use CJ's figs to confirm which of these are real contenders and which don't have the figs to be competetive. I will then look for price value among the final contender(s) prior to wagering on the race. I am looking forward to the BRIS/TSN version of CJ's program, as I don't want anything to do with DRF. I can then take on some additional tracks.

[Valuist]

Formula-

What is your definition of a top fig? Is it just last race? Is it last race at a relevant distance and over relevant footing? How about top fig in the past year at a similar distance and surface? How about lifetime at a relevant distance and footing?

[formula_2002]

Formula-

What is your definition of a top fig? Is it just last race? Is it last race at a relevant distance and over relevant footing? How about top fig in the past year at a similar distance and surface? How about lifetime at a relevant distance and footing?

Last race. 5th and final number. no other conditions.
http://www.pacefigures.com/numbers.html

[JustMissed]

Odds range >=6 and <=15, public picked 8% winner, top fig picked 21% winners



Joe, Maybe you are headed in the right direction to become a winning player.

At this odds range, you could apply some traditional handicapping qualifiers to those 79% losers, pass a few races to pump up that 21% strike rate and all of a sudden you have the capability to be a full time winner.

JM

[formula_2002]

I managed to accumulate about 1600 horses with cj's figures and here are the results from 01/30/2005 through 02/10/2005.

It certainly is not enough races for me to make a final judgment, but given that these results are all “out of sample”, I find them very impressive.

Just using the top final “performance figure” and not differentiating between track surface (dirt to turf or turf to dirt).

Odds range >0 and <=5, public picked 24% winners, top fig picked 36% winners

Odds range >=6 and <=15, public picked 8% winner, top fig picked 21% winners

Odds range >=16, public picked 3% winners, top figure picked 11% winner.

I had to write a few programs to get to the above data and have checked it as best I could.

I’m fairly comfortable with the results produced by the program.

I would hope the “fig pick” advantage continues.
Good work CJ!!

Joe M


SOME THING WRONG WITH THESE NUMBERS. JUST IGNORE THEM PLEASE

Thanks
Joe M

[formula_2002]

FINAL ANSWER

Odds range >0 and <=5, public picked 23% winners(136/579) , top fig picked 27% Winners (32/117)

Odds range >=6 and <=15, public picked 8% winners(42/534), top fig picked 16% winners(6/38)

Odds range >=16, public picked 3% winners (18/584), top figure picked 8% winners (2/28).

[toetoe]

Formy,
The 0-5 odds range is not much help. Too broad a range. The other two are huge, but the sample can't be very big, can it? 6-to-15 returns between $2.94 and $6.72 for $2. $2.94 is phenomenal and much closer to reality, but maybe the 0-to-5 range accounted for 80% of top figs. The 16-and-up slice is huge too @$3.74-to-infinity, but how many were there?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Still sounds fine!

[formula_2002]

Formy,
The 0-5 odds range is not much help. Too broad a range. The other two are huge, but the sample can't be very big, can it? 6-to-15 returns between $2.94 and $6.72 for $2. $2.94 is phenomenal and much closer to reality, but maybe the 0-to-5 range accounted for 80% of top figs. The 16-and-up slice is huge too @$3.74-to-infinity, but how many were there?

The odds range should be as small as possible (and pratical). I dont have enough data for the "possible".
As of now there are no profits in all the ranges>0<=5.

the sample size for each catagory is indicated in brackets (wins/quanity)

[cj]

Like CJ, my nephew is in the army...

:D :D

:mad::mad: Those are fighting words! ;)

[andicap]

:mad::mad: Those are fighting words! ;)

uh oh, Marines? Air Force? Navy?

I humbly apologize -- I've seen the Army-Navy game. Sometimes I think the Army hates the Navy more than it does Charlie. (Does anyone say "Charlie" anymore or have I been watching too many WWII movies?)

:o

[cj]

Air Force, but hey, I like and respect anyone that wears the uniform, even Coast Guard! :D

[lsbets]

andicap - charlies gone, its haji now

[BIG RED]

Good ridence to charlie, and I like women in uniform :cool:

BIG RED
...a sick man

[Tom]

I like them OUT of uniform! :D

...a sicker man!

[BIG RED]

I like them OUT of uniform! :D

...a sicker man!


LOL! :D

[cato]

Andicap said "(Does anyone say "Charlie" anymore or have I been watching too many WWII movies?)"

We've been in so many wars that we are confusing the enemies' slang names (which is some sort of Zen statement in itself)!

"Charlie" was used in VietNam. Never heard that it was used in WWII

By the way, one of the best war movies ever made (obviously in my opinion) is Platoon. My wife and I saw it the other night (3rd time). Very powerful and, according to several Viet Nam vets I know, it did an excellent job of capturing much of the reality and horror of that war.

So, anytime you are up for a very powerful (but tough) movie, rent it.

Cato

[formula_2002]

FINAL ANSWER

Odds range >0 and <=5, public picked 23% winners(136/579) , top fig picked 27% Winners (32/117)

Odds range >=6 and <=15, public picked 8% winners(42/534), top fig picked 16% winners(6/38)

Odds range >=16, public picked 3% winners (18/584), top figure picked 8% winners (2/28).
__________________
updated 02/18
02/03 through 02/18


Odds range >0 and <=5, public picked 24% winners(275/1135) , top fig picked 25% Winners (78/306)

Odds range >=6 and <=15, public picked 8% winners(83/1033), top fig picked 10% winners(8/78)

Odds range >=16 and <=30, public picked 5% winners (24/523), top figure picked 17% winners (3/18).

Odds range >=31, public picked 1% winners (4/616), top figure picked 17% winners (1/6).

Please feel free to confirm or refute

[cj]

To be honest Joe, I'm not really sure how you are measuring, so I can't say much. Of course, my plan is to focus on things the public does not, so I want to do better at the higher odds ranges.

I should note that I rarely bet by focusing only on the top figure last race, as I've mentioned to anyone who has asked, but it is a good starting point.

[formula_2002]

To be honest Joe, I'm not really sure how you are measuring, so I can't say much. Of course, my plan is to focus on things the public does not, so I want to do better at the higher odds ranges.

I should note that I rarely bet by focusing only on the top figure last race, as I've mentioned to anyone who has asked, but it is a good starting point.

cj
Just using the top final “performance figure” and not differentiating between track surface (dirt to turf or turf to dirt) and playing both top horses when there is a tie.


I worked up some additional conditions that compares the average of “performance figure's” to the average top “performance figure's” compared to the actual top performance figure. And so on and so on.. But for right now I'm just sticking with the top figure so I can find out where the top fig perofrmance may exceed the public's performance (based on incremental odds).

[cj]

I think those numbers might go up a hair after today's performance! ;)

[formula_2002]

I think those numbers might go up a hair after today's performance! ;)

a hair? more like the whole dog!!
Congrats :)

[formula_2002]

a hair? more like the whole dog!!
Congrats :)

I think those numbers might go up a hair after today's performance! ;)

For Saturday's AQU, OPX AND GPX( I LEFT OUT SAX because I have to have the program numers in the htm file)

the public won 12% (30/253) for a 33% dollar loss.
cj's top pick won 45% (14/31) for a 100% dollar profit.

More like the hair of the lion, than the "hair of the dog"

Joe M

[cj]

SA in now posted in the same format, I didn't realize I hadn't uploaded the final. The figures stay the same, just added PPs and ML.

[formula_2002]

SA in now posted in the same format, I didn't realize I hadn't uploaded the final. The figures stay the same, just added PPs and ML.

Thank you..

[cj]

To be fair, anyone can have one really good day, its the long run that matters.

[formula_2002]

To be fair, anyone can have one really good day, its the long run that matters.

That’s one reason the data has to be examined on the basis of incremental odds. The more data collected, the smaller one can establish that increment, and therefore, the results of that examination will be more dependable.

But in the meantime, it’s good to have a little fun. ;)

[speedking]

I recently switched to CJ's figures, but had computer problems while on the road Fri and Sat, so I downloaded the free tracks from the Pacefigure site and bought a Thorograph multi-pack, which contains GP, AQU, OP and the other 2 tracks I needed, TAM and FG. I did not save Fri numbers, but the following is a comparison of top numbers, last out, from both sources.

Thorograph AQU 11 plays (2 ties) 2 wins
Bet $22 Returned $9.60
Loss $12.40

CJ 10 plays (1 tie) 3 wins
Bet $20 Returned $27.20
Profit $7.20

Thorograph GP 10 plays 3 wins
Bet $20 Returned $24.20
Profit $4.20

CJ 12 plays (1 tie) 7 wins
Bet $24 Returned $71.60
Profit $47.60

Thorograph OP 12 plays (2 ties) 6 wins
Bet $24 Returned $47.80
Profit $23.80

CJ 10 plays 5 wins
Bet $20 Returned $26.40
Profit $6.40

Thoroughgraph Totals 33 plays 9 wins Bet $66 Returned $81.80
Profit $15.80

CJ's Totals 32 plays 15 wins Bet $64 Returned $125.20
Profit $ 61.20

I also ran a comparison taking the best number of the last 3 races. Here are the results.

Thorograph AQU 10 plays (1 tie) 2 wins
Bet $20 Returned $7.80
Loss $12.20

CJ 9 plays 3 wins
Bet $18 Returned $26.30
Profit $8.30

Thorograph GP 11 plays 2 wins
Bet $22 Returned $15.60
Loss $6.40

CJ 11 plays 2 wins
Bet $22 Returned $7.40
Loss $14.60

Thorograph OP 10 plays 4 wins
Bet $20 Returned $17.40
Loss $2.60

CJ 11 plays (1 tie) 5 wins
Bet $22 Returned $30.40
Profit $8.40

Thorograph Totals 31 plays 8 wins Bet $62 Returned $40.80
Loss $21.20

CJ's Totals 31 plays 10 wins Bet $62 Returned $64.10
Profit $2.10

I don't follow or advocate either method for making selections, but others have been using the last race number to assess potential and profitablity so I followed suit for this comparison. In real life wagering, I made money both days while reviewing both sets of data. On Fri, I pounded a 25/1 shot at GP that I picked up off the Thorograph sheets that I probably would have passed on or used underneath with CJ's figs.(in all fairness, I was also keyed in by some strong trainer stats). Yesterday I hit a $23 horse at GP that I would have passed with Thorograph. Just some more food for thought.

speedking

[speedking]

In the last post I forgot to specify that those stats were from Sat only.

speedking

[JimG]

Oh great, now CJ will start charging $25 a card!!:lol:

Jim

[speedking]

I hope so, Jim. At least $25!;)

speedking

[cj]

Totals for this weekend with the four rules I have posted:
Races: 79
Wins: 31
Win%: 39
ROI: +49%

For all weekends since I started the weekend page:

Races: 522
Wins: 156
Win%: 30%
ROI: +20%

Not too shabby for betting every race at four tracks for over 500 races! ;)

Complete recap is at http://www.pacefigures.com/weekend.html

[trying2win]

CJ,

A 20% ROI betting every race in a series of 522 races. Very impressive!


T2W

[hurrikane]

Great work cj !!

which incremental odds were the best?

[BIG RED]

I have been betteing just about every race since Jan, exotics, at up to 5 tracks a day. Had a great first week which gave me plenty of ammo to keep playing for awhile. But, of course, it started to come down slowly.Told cj at beginning of year I would look at and test his figures out, and see how I could use them. I started to impliment his figs with mine and now have came back, passing my old high mark for year. If we both come up with a horse I like, I'm on him with confidence now. To me, what works, is not his last figs, but how the stats have a horses form stick out. There you can find some sleepers to fill my exotics.! Keep up the good work cj, I'm just about done testing.

[chickenhead]

CJ's figs are a godsend, doped out the winner in the 1st at Aqu yesterday with the figs, showed the 4 and 5 as highly competetive, 11-1 and 12-1 respectively, longest shots on the board. 5 trainer was 29% off a short layoff, and horse had a running style to fit the race, 4 had some negatives. Result, $26.60 back on the 5.

[andicap]

CJ,

does the ROI improve with any minimum odds requirements, say 3-1 or 4-1, etc.?

[PaceAdvantage]

Hmmm...I just used CJ's RULES to select pacelines using Synergism, and betting them the way CJ says to bet them using his figs, the Synergism speed figure came up with 8 winners on Feb 19, 20 at AQU, and $70.30 returned betting just the top choice to win ($36 investment), for a $1.95 return for every $1.00 bet.

The place payoff was also impressive, with 12 picks finishing second, returning $52.90 for a $36 investment, or $1.47 return for every $1.00 bet.

I will test some other tracks later....

[cj]

Andi,

I don't know Andi, but I doubt it. As an example, I showed a slight profit at OP this weekend without a single winner in double digits.

I just posted those rules as a non complicated way to assess the numbers before the races are run. I didn't backfit them to any past sample, just used how I generally start looking at a race as a guideline. I have to be honest, I'm surprised as anyone a mechanical method has done so well, and I doubt it will last forever.

I know I could improve the results by, for instance, not using route figures for dirt sprints or sprint figures for turf routes, but I don't want to change midstream.

The whole reason I've taken this route is to increase my volume of betting, and it has been a big boost. With a 7% rebate each day, a race really has to be puzzling to be a pass for me now. I'd guess I'm playing 70-75% of the races I handicap.

[PaceAdvantage]

CJ, what service are you using for the rebates?

[cj]

Pinnacle.

[shanta]

Totals for this weekend with the four rules I have posted:
Races: 79
Wins: 31
Win%: 39
ROI: +49%

For all weekends since I started the weekend page:

Races: 522
Wins: 156
Win%: 30%
ROI: +20%

Not too shabby for betting every race at four tracks for over 500 races! ;)

Complete recap is at http://www.pacefigures.com/weekend.html


CJ these figures are simply amazing. You should be on top of the world man!Your results obtained on the weekend page is staggering. They say the proofs in the pudding. Your numbers deliver the goods. Congrats and stay cool.
Richie

[andicap]

CJ these figures are simply amazing. You should be on top of the world man!Your results obtained on the weekend page is staggering. They say the proofs in the pudding. Your numbers deliver the goods. Congrats and stay cool.
Richie

In this game, the minute you feel you are "on top of the world," you get knocked off very quickly. But I know CJ has his head on straight and is not feeling as Andy Beyer famously once said, "King of the World."

But does CJ worry that word on this figs will get out and begin hurting the prices? Or does he use them in such a way (interpretatively) that he can overcome that because most people will bet mechanically -- best last or best of last 3).

ALSO, in testing best of last 3, would it help the ROI to put a time limit on those races? Say nothing further back than 6 months so you don't end up picking a paceline from 2 years ago?
In my paceline picking I do not like to go back over 6 months unless the horse is coming back after a layoff or he seems to be rounding into that prior form, but it's a case by case matter that has to be examined closely each time. If I play mechanically for fun (speedcapping in the War Room for example without betting), I won't look back past 6 months.

BTW I find that exercise, speed-capping in the WR is a great way to keep your handicapping in shape. You never fail to miss something of course since your capping a race in under 3 minutes and by keeping a list of things you miss you develop a checklist of things to double-check when you do real capping.

[chickenhead]

The best place to look for value mechanically I think would be when the Perf. Figs. give a different ranking to the horses than the Beyers do, for however the pacelines are picked.

If they are the same ranking (and gaps between) you might feel more confident that it's a legit fav., but there is probably no value if the Beyers have them the same way more or less.

Maybe a good thing to add would be to run an oddsline on the Beyers and on the Figs for whatever pacelines are mechanically selected....and bet the overlays when they appear. Cuts out the tote watching. Maybe I'll play around with that a little.

[Tom]

I must have missed a post - what is this "method" of using CJ's figs? I usually seek out CJ's posts, but I must have missed this one.

[Zaf]

Tom,

I believe this is how its done using the performance figure.

Race selections based on these simple rules:

1. Find last race on today's surface (dirt or turf)
2. ===== type layoff horses are excluded
3. Top figure is the bet
4. Ties, bet the highest odds

ZAFONIC

[Tom]

Thanks, D. :)

[andicap]

Tom,

I believe this is how its done using the performance figure.

Race selections based on these simple rules:

1. Find last race on today's surface (dirt or turf)
2. ===== type layoff horses are excluded
3. Top figure is the bet
4. Ties, bet the highest odds

ZAFONIC

On the site, CJ does NOT define how long a ======== type layoff horse is, basically leaving it to the user. I don't think he says what the default is (although it's likely I overlooked it.)
So for the test, what is the cut-off date on ======== type layoff horses?

And I presume he is comparing sloppy track PPs to fast track PPs as long as both are on the dirt?

[cj]

Hi Andi,

I can't remember what I have it set at and I'm not at home right now, but I'm pretty certain its 120 days, though I've tinkered with 180 in the past.

[cj]

Looking through some of the figures posted, I think its 180 days now.

[cj]

Totals for this weekend with the four rules I have posted:
Races: 78
Wins: 30
Win%: 38
ROI: + 21%

For all weekends since I started the weekend page:

Races: 600
Wins: 186
Win%: 31%
ROI: +20%

Only two double digit horses all weekend and still at 20%

[Zaf]

;) :) :cool: :) ;)

ZAFONIC

[Tom]

:jump:

[kingfin66]

Totals for this weekend with the four rules I have posted:
Races: 78
Wins: 30
Win%: 38
ROI: + 21%

For all weekends since I started the weekend page:

Races: 600
Wins: 186
Win%: 31%
ROI: +20%

Only two double digit horses all weekend and still at 20%

That's seriously approaching Rock Star territory. Only one person that I know of (wolsons) has ever done that. You are pretty much surpassing his amazing performance.

Question: Have you ever done any type of workout to see what the numbers look like if you filter by odds? I would also be curious to know how the play performs in a value environment. For example, top performance fig is 90 and the horse is 8/5, while the second choice is an 88 and is 6/1.

Congrats on the performance. I doubt anybody is too surprised though.

[Kreed]

WHAT 4 RULES? Please Explicate. ty.

[Zaf]

Race selections based on these simple rules:

1. Find last race on today's surface (dirt or turf)
2. ===== type layoff horses are excluded (180 days )
3. Top figure is the bet
4. Ties, bet the highest odds

ZAFONIC

[Kreed]

thanks Z. i see you got them memorized, lol. i will check them out.

[Storm Cadet]

Or just last race on the surface? regardless of distance

[Buddha]

SC, I think any last fig from the dirt for dirt races, without regard to distance, and any last turf number for turf races.

[Storm Cadet]

nt

[cj]

Question: Have you ever done any type of workout to see what the numbers look like if you filter by odds? I would also be curious to know how the play performs in a value environment. For example, top performance fig is 90 and the horse is 8/5, while the second choice is an 88 and is 6/1.


Hi kingfin,

No, I haven't. I use the figures to determine overall ability, and try to determine where the horse is in its form cycle. I don't always play the top figures, though if a horse is not favored and is the top figure, he gets a long look. If they are not the top fig, such as your 88 horse at 6-1, I'd need a reason to expect improvement by the horse or decline by the favorite, preferably both.

[Fastracehorse]

Nice post Kreed Re: the utility of CJ's speed figs - they are good.

I often tease Formula about his use of stats - his stats are #'s that are fun to crunch - for him.

fffastt

[formula_2002]

Nice post Kreed Re: the utility of CJ's speed figs - they are good.

I often tease Formula about his use of stats - his stats are #'s that are fun to crunch - for him.

fffastt

I have, and am, in the process of "crunching" an ever expanding data base (12,000 horses as of now) of CJ's figs.
At this point I'll say this much about his figs. They certainly appear to be as good as, and probably better then anything Bris or All_Ways has to offer. And that is a very conserative statement.

After gathering another 12,000 horses, I'll have more to say..

Perhaps when I go to Vegas next month I'll skip the craps table and just hang out at the race book..

Actually, I remember that there is a casino that has placed a craps table with a clear view of the race book screens..

Joe M

[Diamond K]

If they're good enough for Joe they must be etched on two tablets.

I can't resist any further so I'm headin' over to CJ's.

[formula_2002]

If they're good enough for Joe they must be etched on two tablets.

I can't resist any further so I'm headin' over to CJ's.

Keep in mind that I only recently pulled the tablets out of a burning bush.. They are are still hot. I have to see if they keep their "glow"! :)

[BetHorses!]

Actually, I remember that there is a casino that has placed a craps table with a clear view of the race book screens..

Joe M


They should make a craps table that is a race book screen. :)

[Bobby]

CJ,
It would be interesting to see how your OP results would be if you hadn't discarded the long layoff horses (=====), at least during the first 5 weeks of the meet. I do not know what you consider a long layoff though. Anyway, I bet they'd be different. Nice job on SA, AQU, and GP

[andicap]

I have, and am, in the process of "crunching" an ever expanding data base (12,000 horses as of now) of CJ's figs.
At this point I'll say this much about his figs. They certainly appear to be as good as, and probably better then anything Bris or All_Ways has to offer. And that is a very conserative statement.

After gathering another 12,000 horses, I'll have more to say..

Perhaps when I go to Vegas next month I'll skip the craps table and just hang out at the race book..

Actually, I remember that there is a casino that has placed a craps table with a clear view of the race book screens..

Joe M

Are you able to compare CJ's stats to the Beyers?

[Fastracehorse]

I would venture that CJ would win that battle - CJ is an adjuster.

fffastt

[formula_2002]

Are you able to compare CJ's stats to the Beyers?

Andy, I don't have the beyer figs. If anyone wants to past them onto me, I'll do the comparison.
Of course I have the all-ways and bris pace figures, and at first glance, cj figs are as good and most likely better.
Need more cj figs. The process continues.

[Tom]

Meanwhile, I am also doing a study on CJ's figs.....it involves counting the money every Monday morning . :jump:

[formula_2002]

updated 03/03

BASED ON THE 3 OF THE 4 RULES (SURFACE IGNORED)
12324 HORSES RAN

Odds range >0 and <=3, public picked 28% winners(729/2612) , top fig picked 32% Winners (244/755)

Odds range >=4 and <=10, public picked 12% winners(516/4196), top fig picked 16% winners(73/445)

Odds range >=11 and <=20, public picked 6% winners (128/2212), top figure picked 4% winners (4/89)

Odds range >=21 and <=50, public picked 3% winners (51/2006), top figure picked 20% winners (6/30)

Odds range >=51 and UP public picked .05% winners (5/1275), top figure picked 0% winners (0/6)


OVERALL

public picked 12% winners (1444/12324), top figure picked 25% winners (340/1344)

PUBLIC LOST 24% OF THEIR WAGERED DOLLARS,
TOP PICK WAS EVEN

While it's not very accurate, one could think that picking 100% more winners than the public, the best one could do it break even!!

The best answers are to be found in the small incremental odds study. If and when I manage to get to a 120,000 horse data base, I can better evaluate the success the top figure
play.

[sjk]

Joe,

Are you saying that 12324 horses ran and the public picked all of them.

Also the numbers for the odds ranges don't quite add up to the "overall" totals.

[formula_2002]

Joe,

Are you saying that 12324 horses ran and the public picked all of them.

Also the numbers for the odds ranges don't quite add up to the "overall" totals.

public picked 12% winners (1444/12324), top figure picked 25% winners (340/1344)

public: 1444 won, 12324 ran
top fig: 340 won, 1344 ran

[Zaf]

Now thats not too bad for a method where no thought is employed (black box). Now imagine what you could do if you spent a couple of minutes evaluating the pace scenario & form cycle :cool:

ZAFONIC

[formula_2002]

Now thats not too bad for a method where no thought is employed (black box). Now imagine what you could do if you spent a couple of minutes evaluating the pace scenario & form cycle :cool:

ZAFONIC

Z, I have always found that to be the hope, but never a profitable reality.

[Valuist]

I notice on his site he has the results from last weekend for each of the tracks he has figs for. What I'm curious about is which tracks do the figures perform best at, over a much longer term. It would be very interesting to see a breakdown per track, and then by sprints and routes (dirt and turf).

[Zaf]

Valuist,

I have been using them for over a year now, and have found that they seem to work on most circuits ( cheap to classy ). I am database challanged so I cannot give detailed stats. We'll leave that to Joe.

I'll never forget one night last year at Delta, I hit about 5 or 6 races in a row including a $37 and $51 winner.

For years I was a chronic loser at Turfway, Almost gave the place up, but since CJ's figs , the longshot pace plays are popping off the page , and TP has become profitable for me ;) .

ZAFONIC

[cj]

$2 Pick-3 7/4/6 3 of 3 $1939.20

Santa Anita, races 1-3
1st, 2nd highest fig wins and pays 45.40
2nd, 2 highest figs run 1-2 in reverse order, 27.80 exacta
3rd, 2 horses tied for top run 1-2, highest odds wins, $25.00, $99.20 exacta, and how about that Pick 3 :eek::jump:

[formula_2002]

Santa Anita, races 1-3
1st, 2nd highest fig wins and pays 45.40
2nd, 2 highest figs run 1-2 in reverse order, 27.80 exacta
3rd, 2 horses tied for top run 1-2, highest odds wins, $25.00, $99.20 exacta, and how about that Pick 3 :eek::jump:


I know.. nice going!

[Show Me the Wire]

CJ:

Great!!! Unfortunately it does not count for Joe's testing as your top figure horses did not win the first or second leg, therefore you do not have a positive roi for today's first three races and maybe the rest of the card.

Ain't that right joe?

[formula_2002]

CJ:

Great!!! Unfortunately it does not count for Joe's testing as your top figure horses did not win the first or second leg, therefore you do not have a positive roi for today's first three races and maybe the rest of the card.

Ain't that right joe?

Not quite.. look at the stats. Why play any top fig <4-1.
Check my latest update.. <4-1 is dogsville, the profits (todate) appear to be in the range >=4-1.

The $25.00 beast should cover entire 4 cards that cj posted. (of course I would be very happy if ALBERT E. had a little more fire in his belly and with-stood the bumping and won by a nose rather then losing by a nose (AQU 8th, about 12-1).


I'm a simple win bettor.. "If you can make it there (in time) , you can make it anywhere"

[formula_2002]

just for good measure;

5th Race - Santa Anita Park - Friday, March 4th, 2005

2 My Onomatopoeia 4.70 -1

[formula_2002]

CJ's top fig at SAX on 3/5/05 returned an 11th race pick 4 at odds of 509-1.

Base on the 12,000 plus of horses with cj's fig that I have in my data base here is what I would want you to think of once the bliss has worn off.

The four rounded off odds of the winners were 4-1,2-1,6-1 and 4-1.

The public's min odds to break even for that bet was 1088-1.
Cj's min odds to break even odds would be 682-1


The 11th race pick 3 paid odds of 111-1.

The public's min odds to break even for that bet was 195-1
Cj's min odds to break even odds would be 163-1



that's all based on the following current win%

2-1, public 27% wins, cj's 31%
4-1, public 18% wins, cj's 24%
6-1, public 10.5% wins, cj's 8.2%
(cj's top fig, is based on using 3 to the 4 rules as previously mentioned in another post)

And in the next 12,000 horses all those figures can change!!

Currently, In the 2-1 through 6-1 odds range;

The public loses 16% of their wagered dollar.
CJ’s top pick loses 6.6% of their wagered dollar.

If one were to bet on the top rated all-way’s pick (based on the horse with the highest total number of appox 60 top ranked factors) one could lose about 13% in over 6000 plays.
That is based on data between 2000 and 2004

[legs]

based on all of your tests can you tell me the longest losing streak you had at any giving track. THANKS

[formula_2002]

based on all of your tests can you tell me the longest losing streak you had at any giving track. THANKS

Dont by that kind of stuff LEGS. It's worthless and will only cost you big $$$.
If you can't make money based on incremental odds analysis, you can not make money!!

[legs]

Whats worthless his program [Cj's] thanks for the reply

[formula_2002]

Whats worthless his program [Cj's] thanks for the reply
I didn't say CJ's program is worthless.

"longest losing streak you had at any giving track"
is worthless information to anyone who is trying to evaluate a system and can mislead the uninformed.

[Tom]

And through all your testing, how much real money have you won?
His mubers are sowing a profit in a black box test - impressive. More impressive, when you use them to handicap a race and not some pre-ordained silly odds grouping the profits are multiplying. I have only been playing withi them a short time - 6 months. Talk to guys who have used them for a year or better - Zafonic for one.
This type of research is worthless. Action at the windows is the only true test - with real cash on the line.

[formula_2002]

This type of research is worthless. Action at the windows is the only true test - with real cash on the line.


I marvel at the freedom of will that allows one to ignore "this type of research".

Here, let me offer this. In odds range>=20 and up, the system returned $139 profit , winning 6 of 42 plays.

Is that the kind "research" can by into?

[Tom]

No, because there is no way I will play every horse in that odds range. Or any other odds range. What matters to me is that the ones I do select and play show a profit - I could care less about the rest of them. You are ignoring vital factors in favor of an odds range.

Try this - what is the precentage of horse that will win that have:

=Highest last out fig
=within 30 days
=thrid off a layoff
=positive jockey switch
=lone speed in the race
=nothing else has ever run to par for the class
=last ouot fig isnot its best ever but is an improvemnt to within 10 points of the best
=horse is dropping today

Now that is something I would be interested in seeing.

[BIG RED]

I'll get right on that Tom, give me til atleast the end of may ( I'm a pen and paper guy :cool: )

[midnight]

It's like anything else. It won't make a profit played blindly. I've looked at the numbers on the website and compared them to the results. They look okay to me, but like anything else, some common sense and judgement are needed, and the player has to shop for a price.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I will if that horse is 20 and up!

[formula_2002]

No, because there is no way I will play every horse in that odds range. Or any other odds range. What matters to me is that the ones I do select and play show a profit - I could care less about the rest of them. You are ignoring vital factors in favor of an odds range.

Try this - what is the precentage of horse that will win that have:

=Highest last out fig
=within 30 days
=thrid off a layoff
=positive jockey switch
=lone speed in the race
=nothing else has ever run to par for the class
=last ouot fig isnot its best ever but is an improvemnt to within 10 points of the best
=horse is dropping today

Now that is something I would be interested in seeing.

That's way beyond the scope of this study!

[Tom]

Exactly. You are not studying real life.

[formula_2002]

Exactly. You are not studying real life.

Tom. this study is not about you or your reality.

It's simply about 3 rules of play based on a handicapping system.

The format for the study is based on the academic work of others, including Benter,Ziemba,Ali,Fabricand and countless others.

You can either accept that or not.

If you have a problem with that, take your issues up with them. I can't help you..

[Hosshead]

updated 03/03

BASED ON THE 3 OF THE 4 RULES (SURFACE IGNORED)
12324 HORSES RAN





.
If CJ put "surface" in, as one of his 4 rules, why ignore it?
I would think that surface (change) would be an important factor.
Were you not able to monitor [surface-switch from last race] in your study?

[formula_2002]

Were you not able to monitor [surface-switch from last race] in your study?

Yes.

The hmt files I have differentiated between grass and dirt with color.
My program can not pick this up.

I now have the program I purchased form cj. I’ll be able to differentiate between the surfaces as soon as I can wean myself from the hmt files cj puts on his web page.

While there are times this lack of differentiation has been beneficial to the roi, there are those times it has not.

[andicap]

Has anyone tried doing Cary Fotias' Equiform type analysis (New Pace Tops, reversals, turf decline line, etc.) with CJ's figures? Not sure they would translate tho.
For Fotias, all the pace figs -- including routes -- are at 4f so CJ's route figures would not be the same structure. Fotias uses velocity-type ratings he converts to numbers in the 40-90 range, roughly.

Fotias -- who does not adjust for trips, but does for weight -- uses 1 point for 1 length at 4f, 1 pt for 1.5 lengths at 6f, 1 pt for 2 lengths at 8f, etc.

[Zaf]

That seems like a very big adjustment for weight. So for a bug boy situation the fig can actually vary by as much as 10 points due to weight :confused: ?

ZAFONIC

[formula_2002]

That seems like a very big adjustment for weight. So for a bug boy situation the fig can actually vary by as much as 10 points due to weight :confused: ?

ZAFONIC

How do you adjust for the weight of the horse.
It he ran his top fig at 1000# and he's now adding on 50 lbs of his own weight.. how do you figure..
Why not weigh the horse?

[Zaf]

Good idea Joe, but the public has no way of knowing.

ZAFONIC

[Tom]

That would be good info to have.
Do you think if we email Mullins he would help us out? :kiss:

[andicap]

Fotias does not adjust 1 for 1 for weight as it looks like I wrote.

He adjusts 1 point for 5 lbs. The above is what 1 point on his Equisim scale equals at different distances. At 4f, 1 length, at 6f, 1.5 lengths, etc.

[delayjf]

Has anyone tried doing Cary Fotias' Equiform type analysis (New Pace Tops, reversals, turf decline line, etc.) with CJ's figures? Not sure they would translate tho.

Andicap,

I've had luck appling Fotias theorys to CJ pace / speed figures. A pace top is a pace top, but I've also had good luck with stretchout horses who follow Fotias's patterns using CJ figures. Certainly the pace figure scales are not the same, but the theories can still apply. Any idea what 1/5 of a second equates to with Fotias pace figures.??

[Zaf]

I have applied Fotias Pace Top theory in the past (Bris 4F Pace Figures) and did have some success. It will be interesting to try this with CJ's Figs.

ZAFONIC

[hracingplyr]

The only problem i see with that is, if you are trying to apply the new pace top theory using cj figs or bris or you only see the last 10 races in the pp's. The horse could of run a new pace top 17 races ago and his last race may look like a new pace top in his last race out of the 10 pp's showing, but it really is not

See You At The Windows

[socantra]

Fotias also had recent pace top, delayed pace top, etc. The New Pace Top was the strongest, and is obviously only going to apply to younger horses. If you can't tell, just don't give it as much weight.

I've been casually eyeballing it since I've been looking at CJ's figures, and find it reasonably predictive. I've also found that it seems just about as predictive at the six furlong point in routes. Its not something I live or die by, but its definitely worth considering.

socantra...

[Zaf]

The only problem i see with that is, if you are trying to apply the new pace top theory using cj figs or bris or you only see the last 10 races in the pp's. The horse could of run a new pace top 17 races ago and his last race may look like a new pace top in his last race out of the 10 pp's showing, but it really is not

See You At The Windows

Au contraire mon ami :)

The version of CJ's program that uses the Formulator files will allow you to see as many running lines as you like , not just 10.

ZAFONIC

[Tom]

Z....what number do you put in for number of pacelines in the settings file to get all available? I guess I missed that option.

[cj]

Hey guys,

I better warn you, if you go to high on lines to see, the program may freeze. It's OK at SA or somewhere without a lot of lines, but don't try it at Mountaineer or Penn where every horse has like 100 starts! :D

[Buddha]

Hey guys,

Mountaineer or Penn where every horse has like 100 starts! :D

Is there something about horses that have that many starts? They are just getting warmed up and prepped for some big races :eek:

[Zaf]

Z....what number do you put in for number of pacelines in the settings file to get all available? I guess I missed that option.

Tom,

I'm not sure if there is a setting for all pacelines for every horse in the race. I know that we can display a certain number for each horse though. We'll have to ask the Guru.


ZAFONIC

[Buddha]

as far as i know, it is just hte number in the settings file. just change it from 10 to 100 or something high. like cj said, if you have to many horses with a lot of races, it will freeze the program causing you to redo the track.

[Tom]

Has anyone tried doing Cary Fotias' Equiform type analysis (New Pace Tops, reversals, turf decline line, etc.) with CJ's figures? Not sure they would translate tho.
For Fotias, all the pace figs -- including routes -- are at 4f so CJ's route figures would not be the same structure. Fotias uses velocity-type ratings he converts to numbers in the 40-90 range, roughly.

Fotias -- who does not adjust for trips, but does for weight -- uses 1 point for 1 length at 4f, 1 pt for 1.5 lengths at 6f, 1 pt for 2 lengths at 8f, etc.


andi....The X Screen in older versions of HTR gives Cramer pace numbers for 2 Fur, 4 fur, Stretch, and final along with C90. You have to scroll through each paceline, but the numbers are very good. The older version also has the Cramer pars for each class as well -I still use it along with the newer one.
The 4 fur figs let you compare sprints and routes at the same distance.

[andicap]

Tom,

Can you use that version with Windows or is it strictly DOS?
I didn't think you could use the DOS version anymore.

Can you send me a copy of that program?

[formula_2002]

comparision of public to cj's top fig only
public plays top ranked cj figure cj win% /public win %
ave odds # wins # plays dollar net win % # wins # plays dollar net win %
0 35 53 -5.55 66.04% 29 39 0.15 74.36% 1.13
1 442 1,075.00 -201 41.12% 233 527 -77.1 44.21% 1.08
2 488 1,716.00 -276.55 28.44% 157 518 -66.7 30.31% 1.07
3 373 1,813.00 -354.5 20.57% 76 366 -73.1 20.77% 1.01
4 284 1,562.00 -177.9 18.18% 59 264 24.15 22.35% 1.23
5 178 1,235.00 -181.9 14.41% 30 166 9.3 18.07% 1.25
6 110 1,099.00 -336.7 10.01% 10 103 -31.9 9.71% 0.97
1910 8553 -1534.1 22.33% 594 1983 -215.2 29.95% 1.34

In the incremental odds ranges shown, cj top fig picks 29.95% winners, compared to the publics 22.33% winners.

[Tom]

Tom,

Can you use that version with Windows or is it strictly DOS?
I didn't think you could use the DOS version anymore.

Can you send me a copy of that program?

No, it's the same basic program we use today, only an ealrier version.
Copy on it's way tonight - scroll down to the bottom of the list of screens-it;s the last one.
You have to scroll each paceline to get the previous one - it will tell you what line you are at.

[Tom]

Andy...did you get the email?

[andicap]

Yes I did, thanks!!

[formula_2002]

comparision of public to cj's top fig only
public plays top ranked cj figure cj win% /public win %
ave odds # wins # plays dollar net win % # wins # plays dollar net win %
0 35 53 -5.55 66.04% 29 39 0.15 74.36% 1.13
1 442 1,075.00 -201 41.12% 233 527 -77.1 44.21% 1.08
2 488 1,716.00 -276.55 28.44% 157 518 -66.7 30.31% 1.07
3 373 1,813.00 -354.5 20.57% 76 366 -73.1 20.77% 1.01
4 284 1,562.00 -177.9 18.18% 59 264 24.15 22.35% 1.23
5 178 1,235.00 -181.9 14.41% 30 166 9.3 18.07% 1.25
6 110 1,099.00 -336.7 10.01% 10 103 -31.9 9.71% 0.97
1910 8553 -1534.1 22.33% 594 1983 -215.2 29.95% 1.34

In the incremental odds ranges shown, cj top fig picks 29.95% winners, compared to the publics 22.33% winners.

I now have over 11,000 horses in the above odds range and the results remain the very much the same.; public 22% winners, CJ top fig 29.34%.

looks like you have to get atleast 10-1 to get profits
But that is iffy, since I only have about 200 top fig plays in the range >=10 <=50 , and even that is too large an increment to study.