Okay so what's Hi Fly's excuse...?

[JPinMaryland]

Didnt see the race, what happened?

[Buddha]

I didnt get to see the race either, but he was beat 2 lengths and here is his comment.

High Fly: chased pace, 3 wide bid, drifted in, steadied late, gave way

[cj]

Caught wide around both turns was what doomed him, took a funny step late too but was beaten by then anyway. Pretty good effort.

[Sinner369]

Hi Fly!


No excuses! Horse is just a speed Horse who needs the lead.

[DerbyTrail]

Hi Fly! No excuses! Horse is just a speed Horse who needs the lead.

Really? Speed horse?.. Then why did he stalk the pace 2nd or 3rd in his three wins before this? You must not have seen his three races. He's not a "need the lead" type at all..

He was four wide around the first turn and three wide the rest of the way. Not going to win from the 8 hole at Gulfstream with that trip. Winner ran 9f, High Fly ran 9.5f+... Tough to win under that scenario. On top of the trip, inside posts have been taking all the dirt routes at GP.

[Observer]

While I admit at the point he took the "funny" step .. he was probably out of winning contention .. but I definitely thought he totally lost any momentum he had left when he took that step. If I recall correctly, it seemed like a reaction to the whip .. as he was under a heavy drive .. and he swapped out his leads akwardly .. which made it appear like a "funny" step.

Going as wide as he did .. especially into the first turn .. I give this guy a lot of credit .. for being there at the end .. so maybe this was a great learning experience for him.

I'm not really familiar with this horse's history .. but was this the first time he was really under serious pressure in the stretch???

[DerbyTrail]

I'm not really familiar with this horse's history .. but was this the first time he was really under serious pressure in the stretch???

Observ..

Yes.. He won his first three by a combined 24 lengths..

[Observer]

So I guess that would mean he was never seriously tested!
:D :rolleyes: :D

[Valuist]

4 wide first turn vs what I felt was a positive rail bias. 3 wide second turn; took a bad step in the stretch. Could he reverse that decision? Definitely a possibility.

[DerbyTrail]

4 wide first turn vs what I felt was a positive rail bias. 3 wide second turn; took a bad step in the stretch. Could he reverse that decision? Definitely a possibility.

Val..

Exactly on the rail bias.. 3 of four 9 panel runs during the week went to inside speed.. And I think White may have actually instructed Castro to stay out there for a learning experience. It looked to me like he had opportunity to tuck inside well before the half mile pole, but he chose not to...

Will be interesting to see what he does with him now. Do you run the Fountain and the FL Derby? Or the Fountain and Blue Grass?

How about my girl Charlotte? Sitting with High Fly, Electric Light, now Around the Cap, and I think there is even another soph of hers lurking!

[JPinMaryland]

< On top of the trip, inside posts have been taking all the dirt routes at GP. >

Yeah this is what someone implied when I asked the same question in the war room. Has anyone made any study of this sort of bias at different tracks?

That to me would be equally as important to know as what the daily track variant was/is. I mean okay the idea of Byer figs is to normalize for different track surfaces/weather on different days.

I get the idea. But why isnt it equally important to know how badly a wide trip can hurt you. Obviously this factor is not the same at all tracks.

Has anyone done a study? Does anyone have some offhand notes. I'd like to hear it. Thx.

[DerbyTrail]

JP,

There's really no way to "study" biases.. They are fleeting and ever changing. During specific meets, one can track the way the surface is playing with trip notes that can identify the emergence of a bias, but who knows how long it will last?

BRISnet's track bias reports (in the "At a Glance" section of Handicapper's Report) keep tabs on the successful posts and running style at various predominant trips. There's a running total for the whole meet and a total for the races run the previous 7 days. http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=331

And Davidowitz, Christ, etc. have written plenty on sensing bias and taking advantage of them. But there wouldn't seem to be any reliably valuable info gleenable from a bias study.

Anecdotal bias awareness is as good as anything I suppose. Here in Toga, after we get heavy rains, the inside of the track turns boggy and slow. Afterwards, the best part of the track is the 5-6 path where the wheels of two tractors pass overlapping each other. They call it the "Waterwagon Road", and you can see jocks swing out off the turn all the time and run down leaders while on the firmly packed part of the track!

[OTM Al]

I was sitting on the deck of the wagering pavillion for this one so got a good look at him as he came around the turn as well as on the big screen. I will say that I don't think he is in the top ranks of the 3yo crop, but he was the best horse in the race. Anything outside the 6 PP at GP in 1 1/8 mile races is trouble unless there is absolutely no speed to the inside. The 8 post got him off to a bad start as the inside speed forced him way wide around the first turn and he was never tucked in on the backstretch. As they came around the final turn, he was still wide but moving nicely and I still thought he would pull it out. Did not catch the bad step, but that would explain why the drive he was in didn't take him to the front. That trip lost him a ton of ground to be sure and I have to believe had he drawn near the rail he would have run away with it. It once again shows though that the biggest bias to be firmly established at the new GP is firmly against outside posts at 9f.

[depalma13]

I was there too. He was beaten by his post position and getting pushed at least 6 wide on the first turn. He stayed three wide the rest of the way around the track, then ducked in in the stretch, basically costing him second.

I was far more impressed with Bandini, rail bias or not, he looks like he is going to be very special.

[OTM Al]

I thought of the 3yo races that day, Proud Accolade did the best job. Coming from off the pace and having to check hard around the turn and then just blasting off to win easy. He has pretty firmly established himself as a one turn horse and has the makings of a very fine sprinter

[Valuist]

Proud Accolade was very impressive. Getting shut off, comes back around to circle wide against the bias, then won, IMO, in either ridden out or handily fashion.

[JPinMaryland]

Yes, I got to see Wire to Wire today to finally see these races of last weekend.

Bandini was impressive, yes I agree. THe one race that some people were impressed by was by Harlington but I wonder what others think. The track was slop, he had a huge lead no one was contesting and Moss said that the competition was not really in his class. Also his fractions were slower through the race but this could be a product of immense slop, I would have to seenthe other races to get a feel for that. So I remain unconvinced by Harlington. He has a good pedigree so I'm told, what did others think of that ride?

Proud Accolade, I was very big on this horse last year, cashed him at Belmont on Oct 9 but now I'm thinking what others have already said that he cant get two turns. A good sprinter, as Moss said on tv....

The telecast did not show the trouble that PAccolade run into. Moss was good to pt. this out to the tv viewers. Any comments on that?

[cj]

High Fly has joined the barn of one Nicholas Zito.

[JPinMaryland]

He's definitely got the times to suggest he could win at derby. If he can run 23 1/2 early fractions, say a 1:11 at 3/4 and come home in 25s, he could run a 2:01 which could win. He run fractions like these now at 1 1/8 so...

OTOH I wonder if he can run under restraint, if he gains the lead and is challenged and starts running 45 1/2 for a half, he could burn.

The other issue is that swerve inward he made last week. I dont know if he was changing leads, it looks like the jockey and he are not on the same page or something. Replayed it 5 or 6 times, he looks confused w/ traffic but he's young.

[Figman]

I'd rather have Bill White!

Lifetime Trainer Stats
Zito -
Starters-2672
Wins-432
Places-392
Shows-326
Win%-16%
In-The-Money %-43%

White
Starters-2828
Wins-548
Places-435
Shows-377
Win%-19%
In-The-Money %-48%

Routes ONLY
Zito
Starters-1480
Wins-253
Places-238
Shows-192
Win%-17%
In-The-Money %-46%

White
Starters-1341
Wins-227
Places-200
Shows-188
Win%-17%
In-The-Money %-46%

White quietly "gets it done."
Zito is a crybaby.

[JPinMaryland]

see what I mean about Harlington? He's 6-5 going over a fast track and failed to hit the board. He was well back at the 3/4 call, then he made a move wide while in the turn, then lost ground. Pace was somewhat pressing compared to his last race but he was off the pace. I thought he might get it done when the call at the 1/2 was like 46 and change and he was off the pace, it looked like a good place for him to be, it was a good place for the winner who came from further back I think...