ES & HMagic Last Week

[socalsportsbook]

I have been playing with EquiSim (novice) and Handicapping Magic software. There has been some discussion on the board about both. Here is how they compared last week.

Handicapping Magic
Tot Races = 43
Wins = 16
W% = 37%
Tot Bet ($2) = $86
Total Won = $118
$$ Profit = $32
Profit = 37%

EquiSim
Total Races = 43
Total Wins = 12
W% = 28
Tot Bet ($2) = $86
Total Won = $94.20
$$ Profit = $8.20
Profit = 7.7%

As I said, I just began using ES so I may have made some mistakes. I hope not.

I am not touting or endorsing any of these products, just reporting the results as they happened in my play. I have no opinion on either. I will have an opinion in a couple of weeks when I see how they shake out.

[Jaguar]

Morgan, my experience with pace programs is the they have such acute inherent limitations that they-by themselves- can never return a higher win rate than some of the commonly used "angles". (I loosely define "Angles" to include not only the classic impact values studied by Mike Nunamaker in his huge research effort, but also some of the frequently used algorithms in many handicapping programs.

Horse racing is so dynamic that no single yardstick can measure it.
Furthermore, class drops hopelessly influence pace ratings.

Even a very fine pace program such "A +" misses a great many fast horses, and sometimes very obvious ones.

Many very bright pace handicappers keep tweaking their algorithms, hoping to hit a very accurate predictive "sweet spot".

It ain't going to happen, there are too many ingredients in the wonderful stew we call horse racing.

Most of the 25 best known angles return a win rate if 12-16%, by themselves. The best pace programs do a little better than that.

Jaguar

[cj]

Jaguar,

I don't know where you get your info on pace programs, but I very rarely look at angles and use a pace program, and hit much higher rate than you quote. Are we talking betting every race? That would be a different story, but you couldn't have "angles" in every race either. Also, I don't miss a great many "fast, obvious" horses either.

CJ

p.s. I don't bet on poor trainer-jockey combos, no matter what the pace figures tell me, I will admit that much.