Going off form

[46zilzal]

it is working over and over: any horse showing steady increases in %median is GOING OFF FORM, eliminated Berrythegold in the 7th (Feb 3rd 2005) at big A based on this

[hurrikane]

% median ?

[46zilzal]

If you take the velocity of all three fractions to get total energy, then the SUM of the first two fractions divided by the total (f1+f2+f3) give 5 median energy.

[midnight]

It's known as "energy" in HTR, although I'm not sure if it's computed the same way.

[hurrikane]

I thought that may have been the idea midnight. Never heard it called median.

isn't the eenergy the percent of fr1 to the total?

[andicap]

There is a difference between %e and %M --- and once upon a time there was even an energy number using just F1

%E, present in HTR, is velocity of EP/EP+F3
That energy is usually between 49 and 54 or so depending on the distance, track, surface, and age.

%M is in the mid to upper 60s.

I would theorize that %M and %E are usually similar in relative scale, but I wouldn't swear to it.

I'm no Sartinite but I believe there was a difference of opinion of whether which was better, %E or %M. but I could be wrong on that too.

[46zilzal]

expressed differently: still the key to seeing how a horse fits the projected pace of TODAY's contest I am consistely in awe of how how you can totally dismiss a horse with the wrong profile and the crowd misses it. Also helps in seeing which ones can project to a new distance.

[Tom]

Andicap, %M was introduced to tighten up the parameters. shortly after that, Sartin started using different values for a beaten length depending on the distance of the fraction (it was 0 feet across the board). The revised was 2 feet per furlong of distance.

[grahors]

Could BRIS pace figs somehow be used to calc. %M?

[hurrikane]

46-
wrong profile?

is this suppose to be the +-.5 pts? Or something else?

[JustMissed]

Do you give a troubled start any merit or do you attribute 100% of the loss to %Median and going off form?

"FIDDLERS PRIDE ducked out at the start, was bumped, contested the pace while between rivals three wide and drew away when roused. GOLDEN DEREK raced close up early while in hand, came wide into the stretch and rallied to get the place spot. ANAMERICANBID contested the pace along the inside and tired in the stretch. BERRYTHEGOLD was bumped at the start, contested the pace while four wide and tired in the stretch. MISTICAL FASTNESS stumbled at the start, was checked hard on the backstretch, raced three wide and had no rally. SMOKIN' KELLY was bumped at the start, was pinched back after the start, raced wide and tired. CLUSTER BOMB stumbled at the start, chased the pace along the inside and tired. GINA'S STAR contested the pace while between rivals and tired in the stretch."


JM

[Valuist]

Do you adjust your velocity ratings for track depth? If you don't the actual times are pretty meaningless.

[andicap]

it is working over and over: any horse showing steady increases in %median is GOING OFF FORM, eliminated Berrythegold in the 7th (Feb 3rd 2005) at big A based on this

Can you show exactly what figures you had for this horse on %M?

Thanks

[delayjf]

Also helps in seeing which ones can project to a new distance.

Could you expand on the above??

[46zilzal]

Do you give a troubled start any merit or do you attribute 100% of the loss to %Median and going off form?
JM

This idea is a PROJECTION idea and has NOTHING to do with the today's race's % median.

[46zilzal]

Can you show exactly what figures you had for this horse on %M?
Thanks

total energy %median finish dist
161.60 69.2 3 6
166.16 67.9 2 6
168.23 68.7 8 8
166.48 69.3 2 6
165.09 68.3 1 6

total energy going down, median going up, and an espescially BIG drop in total last out clinched this one...above 69 is too high for this one.

[46zilzal]

46-
wrong profile?

is this suppose to be the +-.5 pts? Or something else?

I cannot answer this, Don't know what you are asking

[Lasix1]

Yes, very easily. Here's how:

Add the E1 Figure & the E2 Figure
Add this resulting total to the LP Figure for a Total Figure
Divide the sum of E1+E2/Total Figure.

Example:

Horse A:

E1 E2 LP

91 84 71

91+84= 175 (Early Figure)

175+71=246 (Total Figure)

%M= 175/246=71.13

Horse B:

E1 E2 LP

94 99 83

94+99=193 (Early Figure)

193+83=276 (Total Figure)

%M=193/276=69.92

In this example Horse A expends more of his available energy (%M=71.13) at the second call than Horse B (%M=69.92)

Easy, huh? :cool:

[46zilzal]

4th Turfway (1/28/05) the 4/5 favorite GOING OFF FORM, Reece and Feather. last three lines back

total %median

161.21 70.0
162.59 69.8
161.56 69.7

This is used to eliminate false favorites and like ANY angle, it does not work all the time, but enough to be very effective

[Tom]

Lasix,
I have done someting similar, but I calcluate second call differently:

(E2*2)-E1 = 2c (turn time)

In your example, it would be (84*2)-91 = 77
Total Energy = 91+77+71 = 239

I make a contender factor from second call and second fraction -

77+84 = 161

and one from second call and final fraction -

84+71 = 155

I would model the two contender factors - the first representing early and the latter representing other than early. The deceleration ration of theses two numbers is 155/161 = .96 and I modeled this as my energy number.
After a while, I simplified it to just the difference of the two. 161-155 = -6 and my model was now the rankings of the first two factors and the difference.
Kind of like this, by distance and age group:

3 4 -6
2 4 -8
2 5 -3
1 3 -9
1 4 -7

This Brohamer model would tell to be betting on horses with top three early figs and a second fig only about -5 to -10 roughly.

With HTR , I don't use this method much anymore, but it worked pretty good and it was easy enough to do by pencil right on my BRIS PPs at the track between races.

[Lasix1]

Tom,

Good idea. I take it that the essence of this caculation is that you use the second fraction (turn time) as your early energy figure instead of the second call. In other words, did you mean (E2*2)-E1 = 2F (turn time) instead of (E2*2)-E1 = 2c?

I'll try modeling a few this way and let you know.

Thanks--

[Tom]

Yes, Imeant to say the second call (turn time) was (E2*2)-E1.

[46zilzal]

Had hoped that my idea would get some testing rather than microdissection.....has anyone actually found this idea to be as reliable as I have found it? variations? situations where it was NOT true?


Scientific method says test not just discuss

[hurrikane]

expressed differently: still the key to seeing how a horse fits the projected pace of TODAY's contest I am consistely in awe of how how you can totally dismiss a horse with the wrong profile and the crowd misses it. Also helps in seeing which ones can project to a new distance.


What do you mean by profile?

[46zilzal]

....wrong energy distribution for the distance and ATYPICAL for this horse...

if the horse (in question) performs well as an early/presser and you pick a line where it ran late or sustained, that may be the wrong information...not the profile best for THIS horse.

[Kreed]

hehe guys what is form 4 TBs? Ask a Human atlhlete, and the answer is,
to ME, Derek -- aka Kreed, after a long-needed sabatical -- FORM equals
muscle soreness. from birth on, i took swim lessons, later swam in hs & college,
and looking back at other sports i Did a lot of, like Boxing, i would say that
OverTraining can lead 2 sore muscles & aches & Pains, and that's why, in the
TB, a VERY intense race, maybe winning or losing by a NK or NO or HD can
SEVERELY SEVERELY lead to one SORE horse. Recent Example: This weekend
at AQU in a feature race was a filly "TREVALATOR" ... the FAV, was BANK AUDIT
and rightly. At the finish, Bank Audit was 2nd, and LAVENDER LASS won, paying
~$17 ... i'm going from memory here. Anyways, TREV was, on paper, a MAIN
threat, but SHE WAS SORE & I could tell this from the pp's... SHE won her
last race, in the mud, by a Nose, closing like a train, and all the others almost
collapsed. IOW, TREV was all-out ... looking at her workouts Since her Last
Race The Win, You notice, OMG, she took 5 WEEKS off since her Win. Trust
Me, that is an UnMissStakeAble sign of MUSCLE SORENESS. TREV came in last and on my TV she looked collapsable. If ONLY we could detect the less
obvious signs.

[Lasix1]

Andicap & Tom,

I remember Howard saying that he preferred %M to %E because the numbers were more representative of where the horse was in the race when the measurement was made. %E with its number of 53.47, etc., suggests that it was taken when the race was half over. %M for a 6F race is from the start to the 2 call which is actually 4 furlongs or 3/4 of the way through the race. So a figure of 71.39, let us say, suggests a more accurate distribution of early energy.

On the other hand, it is important to remember that however it is calculated, early energy is arbitrary to whatever formula you are using. You could calculate early to the first call, you could calculate it, as Tom does, based on the turn-time figure (second fraction is different from 2nd call) or you could do it some other way.

Tom suggests doing it different ways and using a Brohamer model to see which works best by whatever standard you are using. (e.g., %winners, R.O.I., etc.) Good advice.

In a related post, someone raised the question of how trips effect energy distribution. They obviously do in any given race, but over the long haul, if you use %M you believe with the Sartin pace crowd that horses tend to be prisoners of their running styles and calculating the E/L distribution will help you adjust a horse's running style to the energy requirements of the track if you will keep a model. Trust me, you can get a lot of throw-outs this way. I've seen early horses who stumbled at the gate try to redistribute their energy late and it almost never works (e.g., War Emblem in the Preakness during his 3-year-old season.) And anyone who tries to change the running style of a true S horse knows that while a jockey might be able to coax him into running up on the pace, he almost always resists and has nothing left for the drive. (e.g., Best Pal, Strike the Gold, and an 11-year-old named Chindi who won a race from off the pace, just like he always does, here at Oaklawn last Saturday.) By the same token, if any moronic trainer had tried to change the running style of Bertrando (a stone-cold early runner) he should have had his head examined. There are some highly versatile horses who can win with different running styles, but especially with older horses, the running style they establish early is the one they are likely to keep for a long time to come.

It goes without saying that %M is not a stand-alone factor. A slow horse can have exactly the right energy distribution for the track model and it won't turn him into a fast horse. But as the Sartin people say, it's not that a horse runs fast that's important---it's how he runs fast that counts.

[46zilzal]

"And anyone who tries to change the running style of a true S horse knows that while a jockey might be able to coax him into running up on the pace, he almost always resists and has nothing left for the drive."

ANOTHER good example Forty Niner in the Breeder's Cup...The style is "hard wired" and once found and exploited correctly, it works over and over for the connections. Out of that style and they often can be eliminated.

[keilan]

Andicap & Tom,

I remember Howard saying that he preferred %M to %E because the numbers were more representative of where the horse was in the race when the measurement was made. %E with its number of 53.47, etc., suggests that it was taken when the race was half over. %M for a 6F race is from the start to the 2 call which is actually 4 furlongs or 3/4 of the way through the race.

Lasix1 you state that %E with its number of 53.47 etc is measured from the gate to the half way point of a 6f race. Also you write that %M is measured from the gate to the 2nd call or 4f mark, wouldn't that be 2/3 not the 3/4 you stated. I believe both of your statements are incorrect and any conclusion (So a figure of 71.39, let us say, suggests a more accurate distribution of early energy.) is flawed.

If I took what you have said out of context please correct me.

[keilan]

....wrong energy distribution for the distance and ATYPICAL for this horse...

if the horse (in question) performs well as an early/presser and you pick a line where it ran late or sustained, that may be the wrong information...not the profile best for THIS horse.


I think I might qualify as someone whom understands energy but for the most part your posts on this subject are fragmented and I’m unsure of the point/s you are trying to make.

[keilan]

it is working over and over: any horse showing steady increases in %median is GOING OFF FORM, eliminated Berrythegold in the 7th (Feb 3rd 2005) at big A based on this

Are you serious man? I went back and checked the race. And determined that Berrythegold shows absolutely no signs of going off form. Damn I get a kick out of guys posting stuff about a horses performance after the fact and then trying to support that claim with their own agenda, in this case %M.

I only have to go back to his last race (Jan 7/05) to see that your claims about %M are indeed misleading.
1) The pace of that race was usually quick for this class level.
2) Berrythegold worn blinkers for the 1st time
3) Berrythegold chased the leader 3 wide.

Little wonder his %M had increased, that race has absolutely nothing to suggest the horse is going off form, pure rubbish.

Next point is the Feb 3rd race had no less than 5 horses of the 8 either stumble or were bumped leaving the gate. The comment line for Berrythegold reads “BERRYTHEGOLD was bumped at the start, contested the pace while four wide and tired in the stretch”.

While your suggestion may have some validity if you bothered to qualify or address pace. The example you chose is simply not applicable imo.

[46zilzal]

...then DON'T use it ..pure and simple... if you find fault with it. I am not trying to sign up followers, just pointing out something which I found works.

Do what you want ...have NO problem with that but data is coming out all the time which substantiates this OVER., OVER and OVER again...How many "OVERS" should I put in there???. Not at every track, NOT every day, akin to ANYTHING any of us find.

HUNDREDS of examples (over the last several YEARS) convince me that it has merit, and that is going back to Sartin's Phase III, were you around back then? If so, you might have picked up as well.

"Man Made" CLASS has nothing to do with it as Howard stated again and again unil I FINALLY believed him. "Pace is class and class is pace" was a mantra repeated all the time.

Of course there is NO ONE WAY TO DO ANYTHING

[46zilzal]

total % median
line 1)161.50 70.2%
line 2)162.12 69.6%
line 4)160.52 69.2%

Getting earlier : "going off form pattern" of BIG favorite at Tampa in
the 5th today at 6.0f Dynamic Duck even though it ranked on TOP.

From December 14th

[46zilzal]

NOT as often seen but tells that a horse is finishing up better. Talking Tough winner 9th 2/03 AQU ...last three lines


total %median
161.91 68.1
161.72 68.4
163.77 69.0

[46zilzal]

Aqu 2/6/05 Letminthinkhesboss, third ...almost overcame it because it was not so dramatic...but lessing the ability to finish up with close to the same energy is the key here.


total %med Style
155.46 68.7 E/P
156.05 68.5 P
156.11 67.2 S

[toetoe]

That horse, Travelator, was a GREAT bet-against. 3rd fav., 5th best horse of five. Hope your doing swimmingly. Hehe.

[andicap]

...then DON'T use it ..pure and simple... if you find fault with it. I am not trying to sign up followers, just pointing out something which I found works.

Do what you want ...have NO problem with that but data is coming out all the time which substantiates this OVER., OVER and OVER again...How many "OVERS" should I put in there???. Not at every track, NOT every day, akin to ANYTHING any of us find.

HUNDREDS of examples (over the last several YEARS) convince me that it has merit, and that is going back to Sartin's Phase III, were you around back then? If so, you might have picked up as well.

"Man Made" CLASS has nothing to do with it as Howard stated again and again unil I FINALLY believed him. "Pace is class and class is pace" was a mantra repeated all the time.

Of course there is NO ONE WAY TO DO ANYTHING

46,
I'm sure Keilan was just trying --in his own highly opinionated way -- to provide a second opinion so that lurkers could get both sides of the story on this angle and then check it out on their own.

Certainly, no one has to tell newbies here that you should never take any angle posted here on its own -- always check everything out for yourself.
Certain angles only work for certain people because of some unique spin they put on it, etc.
For example, Dick Schmidt posted his method for using HSH on the bulletin board over there and a guy I know who uses the program said he read it over and over again and still didn't come up with the winners that Schmidt had.

From experience I know that any angles, spot plays that I arrive at independently don't always work for others because I can recognize the little signs when they DON"T work or the circumstances when you should double down, or when you should downplay a certain high rating because it was aberrational, etc.

The increased %M angle might be a gold mine for you, but may not work for others who have not looked at the thousands of races you have with this specialized angle in mind. You know when to apply it best, when to ignore it, etc.

I'm no fan of Ronald Reagan, but his "Trust, but Verify" motto toward the Soviets makes perfect sense in the handicapping world.

[keilan]

46,
I'm sure Keilan was just trying --in his own highly opinionated way -- to provide a second opinion so that lurkers could get both sides of the story on this angle and then check it out on their own.


Hey Andi --- I don't care to have someone piss on my leg and tell me it's raining out.


I didn't say his approach didn't have merit only that the example used is not applicable imho. ;)

[JustMissed]

Keilan-I posted the post below on the first page of this thread.

46 misunderstood my question and responded that the current race had nothing to do with %Median.

My point was that since Berrythegold was bumped at the start you cannot say the current race results PROVED OR DISPROVED the validity of %M and was a valid predictor.

My take would be that 46 had a FALSE POSITIVE indication that %M was predictive in this situation.

Nothing wrong with putting an angle out there for the folks to look at but I don't think a TROUBLED RACE is one I would shout about from the bell tower.


JM :)

Do you give a troubled start any merit or do you attribute 100% of the loss to %Median and going off form?

"FIDDLERS PRIDE ducked out at the start, was bumped, contested the pace while between rivals three wide and drew away when roused. GOLDEN DEREK raced close up early while in hand, came wide into the stretch and rallied to get the place spot. ANAMERICANBID contested the pace along the inside and tired in the stretch. BERRYTHEGOLD was bumped at the start, contested the pace while four wide and tired in the stretch. MISTICAL FASTNESS stumbled at the start, was checked hard on the backstretch, raced three wide and had no rally. SMOKIN' KELLY was bumped at the start, was pinched back after the start, raced wide and tired. CLUSTER BOMB stumbled at the start, chased the pace along the inside and tired. GINA'S STAR contested the pace while between rivals and tired in the stretch."


JM

[socantra]

Does that mean '46' has to give the money back?

I've been casually watching these for several months now, since '46' first mentioned it on sartinalums, and pointing it out before the races were run.. There is definitely something there.

Its not really surprising, a shift in the energy exertion toward more early, indicating a possible running out of gas. What '46' has done is spot a quick and easy way of identifying the situation.

Is it foolproof? No. Can the horse lose for other reasons? Sure. All I know is that it has allowed me to eliminate a lot of overbet favorites that have failed a reasonably fair percentage of the time.

I'm keeping the money, and I don't really care if he pisses on your leg or not.

socantra...

[46zilzal]

Is it foolproof? No. Can the horse lose for other reasons? Sure. All I know is that it has allowed me to eliminate a lot of overbet favorites that have failed a reasonably fair percentage of the time.

I'm keeping the money, and I don't really care if he pisses on your leg or not.
socantra...
Exactly...thanks for at LEAST trying something before you give it the boot.

[Tom]

total % median
line 1)161.50 70.2%
line 2)162.12 69.6%
line 4)160.52 69.2%

Getting earlier : "going off form pattern" of BIG favorite at Tampa in
the 5th today at 6.0f Dynamic Duck even though it ranked on TOP.

From December 14th


Loooking at the total energy increases over three races (from third back to last), couldn't you also assume the horse is improving , and showing improved early speed at the same time?

[keilan]

Does that mean '46' has to give the money back?

I've been casually watching these for several months now, since '46' first mentioned it on sartinalums, and pointing it out before the races were run.. There is definitely something there.

Its not really surprising, a shift in the energy exertion toward more early, indicating a possible running out of gas. What '46' has done is spot a quick and easy way of identifying the situation.

Is it foolproof? No. Can the horse lose for other reasons? Sure. All I know is that it has allowed me to eliminate a lot of overbet favorites that have failed a reasonably fair percentage of the time.

I'm keeping the money, and I don't really care if he pisses on your leg or not.

socantra...


Did you read what I wrote? Do you have any idea about the relationship between pace and energy? Don't answer I can't bear to read your stupidity twice in the same month.

Do I have to give the moneyback -- I'm keeping the money, and I don't really care if he pisses on your leg or not. Your comments are ridiculous and juvenile.

I have forgotten more about this variable then you will know in TWO lifetimes.

Listen, when a horse runs a faster pace number then he has previously run plus the horse is 3 wide what the hell do you think happens to his energy number? Well it goes up Einstein. It doesn’t mean the horse is going off form. Anyone who only looks at an energy number without examining how it was earned is going to make deductions that are flawed, as was my original point

Sonny the best thing you can do is sit quietly and listen and maybe learn something.

[PaceAdvantage]

We're all liable to learn more in a less anxious environment....take a deep breath everyone, and regroup....no more name calling in this thread please....

Thanks.

[keilan]

I didn't say his approach didn't have merit only that the example used is not applicable imho. ;)

While your suggestion may have some validity if you bothered to qualify or address pace. The example you chose is simply not applicable imo.


Two of my three posts clearly state that the angle itself is useable but requires further verification. Basically the angle is this -- if any horse increases their energy number with the same fractions/ trip it is reasonable to conclude that the animal is going off form. Whoop-de-do no one would argue that point.

However if the animal is asked to run 3 wide and run those fractions significantly faster than before it is UNREASONABLE to conclude that the animal is going off form because his energy number increased. This is energy dispersion 101 folks, that’s all I said.

PA -what gets my blood boiling is some of the asinine comments socantra wrote, I ask you, can the boy read? :p

p.s. -- Give my apologises to Albert

[PaceAdvantage]

Albert?

[keilan]

Albert?

Einstein

[socantra]

Loooking at the total energy increases over three races (from third back to last), couldn't you also assume the horse is improving , and showing improved early speed at the same time?

To me its a matter of where the horse is coming from. If he's coming from off form I figure it's a fair indication of improving form, but that is just the standard surprise early speed angle and just one of many factors to be looked at. I haven't noticed anything magic in the three in a row number, except that everyone is aware of it by then.

In a horse that's been winning or running close, I've started to see it as an increasingly reliable indicator of going off form. The increasing total energy is not the common pattern, and was really surprising when I first started seeing it. The three in a row is to lessen the chances that some other factor was responsible.

I include of course the usual disclaimers that I thought were generally understood; this is not a one factor system, not a system at all in fact. Other factors could enter into your determination and should be considered. Anyone who takes my word or anyone else's without checking it out themselves should be considered a prime candidate for village idiot of the week.

I'd best stop now. I don't want to disturb the unfortunate elderly gentleman who's forgotten so much. He seems a nice, if exciteable old fellow though. No one else has called me 'boy' or 'sonny' in at least fifty years.

socantra...

[keilan]

Now of course the tone of your use of the angle is not really an angle now but an indicator and just one of many factors to be looked at. The three in a row syndrome are now used to lessen the chances of any other factor/s that might be responsible for any increase in %M. And of course there’s the usual disclaimers that you thought were generally understood. And anyone that doesn’t check out these factors for themselves should be considered a prime candidate for village idiot of the week.

Guess what socantra, you’re taking home the hardware.

[PaceAdvantage]

I thought I was the village idiot for asking "who's Albert?"

[keilan]

I thought I was the village idiot for asking "who's Albert?"


The voting was close hehe ;) socantra has asked for a re-count

[Lasix1]

keilan,

I obviously misspoke when I said 4f is 3/4 of the way through a 6f race. Of course, it is 2/3. My point was that the %E number suggests a more equal distribution of energy, when, in fact, %M gives you a better picture of the early/late capabilities of a horse. Thanks for pointing out my error.

[46zilzal]

After recently re-reading Cramer's Thorougbred Cyles, wondered why so many ODDS ON horses failed the next time out. We use HISTORY to PROJECT today's events, so I went back and reviewed histories on about 70 favorites that failed LOOKING for some correlation that might account of that failure and LO and BEHOLD, this pattern emerged. Even used it to predict Pico Central's last defeat as the same pattern came up...but this is a very classy one indeed, and found this LESS applicable the higher the class of animal.

[keilan]

46 --- I know of no better way to determine true and false favourites than through the use of energy. I have been preaching to the choir about energy for a long time. For many it’s probably been too long.

This will be my last post on the subject and good luck to you, lasix1, and socantra.

Speaking about Pico Central I caught him in his 1st North American win when he paid something like $87 dollars to win. His energy number must of been shouting at me that day cause I had him keyed everywhere.

[46zilzal]

Tom..... made up TWO examples and ONE shows what you thought: improving total and increased %median..but the other pattern shows the opposite.

Noticed many an odds on favorites which show an even, or decreasing total energy and increasing per cent median are going off form. Increasing early speed is a classic of IMPROVING form so I am showing TWO examples which are EXACTLY the same up to the second call. In the first example the final time is the same and IMPROVING early projects to a better race today. The second example has the same improving early, but the final fractions are getting weaker projecting form falling off. The percent median is also going up but the total energy is going DOWN. If you see the latter numbers BEWARE.

All are listed in seconds and tenths

IMPROVING FORM over last three lines, IMPROVING with same final time
22.2, 45.2, 1:11 total energy 168.01 % median 69.55
22.3, 45.6, 1:11 167.81 69.03
22.4, 46.0, 1:11 167.66 68.51

IMPROVING EARLY but not finishing well GOING OFF FORM
22.2, 45.2, 1:12 166.1 70.35
22.3, 45.6, 1:11.6 166.61 69.53
22.4, 46.0, 1:11.0 167.66 68.51

the difference is the total going down in the latter example.

[Tom]

46 - thanks.

[keilan]

[QUOTE=keilan]Two of my three posts clearly state that the angle itself is useable but requires further verification. Basically the angle is this -- if any horse increases their energy number with the same fractions/ trip it is reasonable to conclude that the animal is going off form. Whoop-de-do no one would argue that point.

However if the animal is asked to run 3 wide and run those fractions significantly faster than before it is UNREASONABLE to conclude that the animal is going off form because his energy number increased. This is energy dispersion 101 folks, that’s all I said. /QUOTE]

Next race out who wins but Berrythegold I put this horse in my stable mail after our dicussion because I was convinced that the horse hadn't gone off form. I was hoping more players like 46zilzal and socantra had played against him. Short price but I'll take it, wagered early because of appointments. I think this guy would be better with blinkers.


Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $285,238
1 Berrythegold 6.10 4.00 3.20
5 Mistical Fastness 8.70 5.90
4 Sweet Moving D 4.90

[cj]

Hey K,

I was on this guy too, just wish he were a half jump slower!

28038456238931 Aqueduct (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:popupResults%28) # 7 (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:popupResults%28) $30 Exacta BX,1,5 $60.00 $657.00 +$597.00

[keilan]

Hey Bud -- nice catch and you were absolutely right with the 5 horse being the danger. What is your opinion about my comments regarding blinkers?

[46zilzal]

Because the horse wins today, against totally DIFFERENT competition means absolutely NOTHING..

[cj]

I have to be honest, adding and removing blinkers is not even close to my field of expertise. I've learned enough to take your word for it!

[keilan]

I have to be honest, adding and removing blinkers is not even close to my field of expertise. I've learned enough to take your word for it!


ditto :)

[cj]

I thought the point was this horse was supposedly "off form." I have the horse as running big off the layoff, regressing big time when tried a strange distance, then running two good races in a row. The race that supposedly showed this horse as being "off form" was the last race, but I thought it had more to do with being roughed at the start, racing wide, and most importantly, being caught behind a very slow pace.

Aqui 02/03/2005 6.0 8/ 8 fst S-Alw 43000N1X Luzzi M J 1.30* Lb Bumped start, 4 wide 69 79 67 65| 66
Aqui 01/07/2005 6.0 9/ 9 gd S-Alw 43000N1X Luzzi M J 1.65* Lb Chased 3 wide, no bid 96 84 86 69| 76
Aqui 12/03/2004 6.0 5/ 8 fst S-Alw 43000N1X Luzzi M J 3.10 L No match 2nd best 82 83 78 78| 79
Aqu 11/07/2004 8.0 3/12 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Maragh R 3.75 L Jumped track chute 83 83 62 52| 54
Del 10/10/2004 6.0 1/ 8 fst Clm 40000N2L Rose J 4.30 L Clear, couldn't last 87 81 84 81| 83