Poindexter
07-24-2023, 09:41 AM
Race 1) Pass
Race 2) 2-6-1-5. A more sensible drive by Roy lead to a win July 17 at 1 to 2 against basically the same bunch.Earned a nice figure for the race and looks like horse to beat but likely at a microscopic price. Stable Genius is getting really good. Closed the gap to a half length against top choice. Has the speed and post to get to the top and at worse end up with a 2 hole trip. Would not be surprised if this one turns the tables especially if Mischevious Rose ends up 1st over. Midnight Miracle keeps getting better but was scratched 3 weeks ago sick. Coming off of being sick and a 3 week layoff and given that she is likely coming from 7th in here, I will try to beat here. For 3rd I Like Mr Mayor Hanover who has had deceptively rough trips in last two perhaps leaving him a little bit on the value priced side. I will put Chocolate Parfait 4th. Gapped far turn and picked up tired horses. Bellas Cavalla always runs her heart out but 8 hole is a tough draw in here. Shes the lucky one has been off 3 weeks.
Race 3) Tough race here. The 3 through 8 are very close on numbers. The 9 I have a hunch is better than his numbers indicate. So given that I have to look at the probable pace of the race. I am pretty sure the 3 leaves and the 6 leaves in here. Also think Eden on the Hill leaves in here. Of the 3 New Rules I like the least. Sat a 2 hole trip and could not even secure 2nd against a 1st over Deadline Hall. Sorre likes to end up in the 3 hole in these situations which would basically make winning unlikely. Will pass on him. So that leaves the 4 & 6. Eden on the Hill switches to Jmac, but watching his last 2 replays I cannot pull the trigger on him. Going to have to let him beat me. Snowpiercer raced well 2 back beating Bella Cavalla who I would like a lot in here. Last start tried to leave from the 10 hole and ended up hung the mile against much better. Easy Toss. Will Give top billing to Snowpiercer. Other contenders in here are Grateful who has been facing better but just sort of races evenly in lane, not impressive to me. Southwind Domino, got the trip I envisioned last week and got the job done nicely. Loses Henry and is stuck in the 8 hole. With 3 other leavers things can get nasty for him if he leaves if he takes back, I don’t see him winning closing from 8th. The other horse of interest in here is Djimon. Stepping up in class off an odds on win vs a weak field, he also figures to be a little compromised by pace. But this horse has some talent, and perhaps can tuck 4th or 5th and can be dangerous with the right trip. So just going to focus on my top 2 choices in here, the 6 and 7. Looking to bet the 6 straight, box him with the 7 and would double if playing the multi leg exotics (extra with the 6)
Race 4) Truffles To is the obvious top choice making a huge drop in class. The race 3 back dominated at 1 to 2 vs similar. Clearly the horse to beat. Okeanos ran super last out 1st over. Clearly 2nd best IMO. I am going to stick with these two in here. I you are looking for others 2-4-6-10 would be the main contenders in no particular order. Picking the race 5-1.
Race 5) Interesting race here. Wind Blown was bet very strong on 7/17 before breaking before the start and being scratched for not reaching the fair start poll. The replays shows him at 9/5 but I believe(I could be wrong) that was after a lot of money came off of him (or was put on other horses whichever the case may be). I recall him being around 4/5 pretty late in the betting. Obviously the huge drop will help him, but 8 hole could cause some problems. Seriously Hanover has been leaving hard (seems to be a hard thing to do at this track from the rail however, but Borth pretty aggressive). Dance Machine left like a rocketship in last beating down his competition. Major Hill could leave. Macs Big Boy left from the 7 post last time see no reason he will not today. Wind Blown can take back but he is better on the front imo. So what to do in here. Very tricky. Off numbers give top billing to Seriously Hanover off his last race. I don’t like the rail for him. If he gets used hard from the rail don’t think he is good enough to come out 1st over and win and don’t even think he is the type of horse that can sit a 3 hole trip and outbrush everyone home. If he can secure the top or 2 hole I would like his chances. Just don’t know if that happens from the rail. Wind blown is obviously very capable against these, but once again post causes major concern. If he can get to the top without killing himself he will be tough to beat. Macs Big Boy was parked a long way to the top in a 27 second opening quarter and kept Armor Seelster out the mile which led to a 54.3 2nd quarter. Faltered late as expected but with a trip in here he could get the job done. Think the first 3 are the best horses but would need a generous price to bet any of them (maybe 4-1+). The other contenders are the 3-4-5-6 . If any of them are over 10 or 12 -1 I might look at a price play. Not a race I expect to get too heavily involved in.
Race 6) Another interesting race. Pemberton after throwing in the dud 6/26 came back 3 weeks later with a really nice effort. Walker brought this guy wide early on the turn lost a lot of ground and went by some solid horses. Now gets a driver switch to Henry and even with the 7 hole I think he should get the job done. Strong top choice. Shadrock Hanover dominated much weaker and would normally be expected to dominate this class level. But this is a tough, tough field for the level. Roy, if he doesn’t have a brain freeze should be able to get him to the top. Gigondas, nice step in the right direction for him in last. Has
speed for a good trip. Have to love the driver switch on Macallan. Has speed to leave and Jmac is generally very good at getting horses outside to the top. Tymal Riggs is a huge ? And really clouds this race as far as betting. Has not raced in 6 months but barn has been pretty strong. Have to watch the board on him. Spartan General who I touted for about a month straight, doesn’t look to be the same horse he was in June at least to me. It is tough enough for him to get there when he is sharp. Picking this race 7-1-4-8. check the board on the 5.
Race 7) Touch race here. Warawee Yang did have a rough trip, used to tuck 6 hole got cover that stalled in front of him, then had to go 1st over for an 1/8th before picking up cover on the late ft, but by his standards the race was poor. Was the excuse enough to warrant that poor an effort, I would say no and try to beat him, but certainly his typical effort puts him right there. Does have a legit shot for a 2 hole trip, so that certainly could wake him up. Unbeatable Kemp was used hard early and fell apart late. Solid enough figure for the race. 8 hole no bargain, but may not be enough speed in here to pose a problem (2 of the speeds are the 1 & 2 hole). Also new barn and new barn is pretty solid. Saundra was used pretty hard in last from 9 hole (3 wide early) rail rode and got up for 2nd earning a solid figure for these last 2. Roy chose the 3, but I prefer Mcnair anyhow. Making this the horse to beat. Last page first looked promising against cheaper. Entered this class july 10th and closed okay, ended up right on the wire behind my top choice. Who sat the perfect 2 hole trip that day. Could be caught 1st over in here which wont help her cause but I make her 2nd best. Picking the race 1-3-8-5-6-9
Race 8) Not overly interested in this race. I am a Rocket disappointe 6/5. Was claimed and then took on much better. Earned good figures but did so sitting in the back of the pack. To me it makes sense to try and beat him. Obviously he can win, just will not win with my money on him. Rock and Twist looks like horse to beat in here. Finally got a good trip and responded with a big win earning a nice figure. With Flying Art out of the picture should not be as difficult for this guy to secure early position. Skylar clearly needs to leave and sit the pocket or 3 hole if it works out that way. Changes barns again, I know puddy had him before, not sure when. I am going to pass on the 2 horse coming in from a smaller track with a low percentage trainer, but this guy clearly on his best day could be dangerous. For 3rd I am going to pick the 5 curious Cortez. A couple of races in June make this guy rock solid in here. His last race at Mohawk he had the 10 post tucked got shuffled and really did not have much of a chance given the trip. Hard for me to gauge the smaller track performances but the last one looks pretty solid. Sir A had no chance sitting 9th into a 27.2 last ¼ in last. Race before earned a solid figure although he was covered up to very, very late. Picking this one
7-3-5-4-8
Race 9)Pass, No value in Logan Park, Fashion Frenzie beat him as 3/5 favorite in his last start before something went wrong. Warawee Xenia, seemed on the verge of putting things together before breaking in last. Terrible betting race imo.
Race 10) Going to give the edge to OutlawAceofSpades. For the most part this guy puts up solid figures every week. Been facing tougher competition and competing. He is versatile so Cullen can do whatever he wants and I will give this guy a slight edge. By the way if Cullen is off and Hensley drives, beware, that has not worked out very well for me. For 2nd and 3rd very little separation between the 4 and the 6. Both raced well last time out. I will focus on those 3 horses. Not a lot would shock me in this race. Most of this field is good enough on their best day.
Good luck.
Race 2) 2-6-1-5. A more sensible drive by Roy lead to a win July 17 at 1 to 2 against basically the same bunch.Earned a nice figure for the race and looks like horse to beat but likely at a microscopic price. Stable Genius is getting really good. Closed the gap to a half length against top choice. Has the speed and post to get to the top and at worse end up with a 2 hole trip. Would not be surprised if this one turns the tables especially if Mischevious Rose ends up 1st over. Midnight Miracle keeps getting better but was scratched 3 weeks ago sick. Coming off of being sick and a 3 week layoff and given that she is likely coming from 7th in here, I will try to beat here. For 3rd I Like Mr Mayor Hanover who has had deceptively rough trips in last two perhaps leaving him a little bit on the value priced side. I will put Chocolate Parfait 4th. Gapped far turn and picked up tired horses. Bellas Cavalla always runs her heart out but 8 hole is a tough draw in here. Shes the lucky one has been off 3 weeks.
Race 3) Tough race here. The 3 through 8 are very close on numbers. The 9 I have a hunch is better than his numbers indicate. So given that I have to look at the probable pace of the race. I am pretty sure the 3 leaves and the 6 leaves in here. Also think Eden on the Hill leaves in here. Of the 3 New Rules I like the least. Sat a 2 hole trip and could not even secure 2nd against a 1st over Deadline Hall. Sorre likes to end up in the 3 hole in these situations which would basically make winning unlikely. Will pass on him. So that leaves the 4 & 6. Eden on the Hill switches to Jmac, but watching his last 2 replays I cannot pull the trigger on him. Going to have to let him beat me. Snowpiercer raced well 2 back beating Bella Cavalla who I would like a lot in here. Last start tried to leave from the 10 hole and ended up hung the mile against much better. Easy Toss. Will Give top billing to Snowpiercer. Other contenders in here are Grateful who has been facing better but just sort of races evenly in lane, not impressive to me. Southwind Domino, got the trip I envisioned last week and got the job done nicely. Loses Henry and is stuck in the 8 hole. With 3 other leavers things can get nasty for him if he leaves if he takes back, I don’t see him winning closing from 8th. The other horse of interest in here is Djimon. Stepping up in class off an odds on win vs a weak field, he also figures to be a little compromised by pace. But this horse has some talent, and perhaps can tuck 4th or 5th and can be dangerous with the right trip. So just going to focus on my top 2 choices in here, the 6 and 7. Looking to bet the 6 straight, box him with the 7 and would double if playing the multi leg exotics (extra with the 6)
Race 4) Truffles To is the obvious top choice making a huge drop in class. The race 3 back dominated at 1 to 2 vs similar. Clearly the horse to beat. Okeanos ran super last out 1st over. Clearly 2nd best IMO. I am going to stick with these two in here. I you are looking for others 2-4-6-10 would be the main contenders in no particular order. Picking the race 5-1.
Race 5) Interesting race here. Wind Blown was bet very strong on 7/17 before breaking before the start and being scratched for not reaching the fair start poll. The replays shows him at 9/5 but I believe(I could be wrong) that was after a lot of money came off of him (or was put on other horses whichever the case may be). I recall him being around 4/5 pretty late in the betting. Obviously the huge drop will help him, but 8 hole could cause some problems. Seriously Hanover has been leaving hard (seems to be a hard thing to do at this track from the rail however, but Borth pretty aggressive). Dance Machine left like a rocketship in last beating down his competition. Major Hill could leave. Macs Big Boy left from the 7 post last time see no reason he will not today. Wind Blown can take back but he is better on the front imo. So what to do in here. Very tricky. Off numbers give top billing to Seriously Hanover off his last race. I don’t like the rail for him. If he gets used hard from the rail don’t think he is good enough to come out 1st over and win and don’t even think he is the type of horse that can sit a 3 hole trip and outbrush everyone home. If he can secure the top or 2 hole I would like his chances. Just don’t know if that happens from the rail. Wind blown is obviously very capable against these, but once again post causes major concern. If he can get to the top without killing himself he will be tough to beat. Macs Big Boy was parked a long way to the top in a 27 second opening quarter and kept Armor Seelster out the mile which led to a 54.3 2nd quarter. Faltered late as expected but with a trip in here he could get the job done. Think the first 3 are the best horses but would need a generous price to bet any of them (maybe 4-1+). The other contenders are the 3-4-5-6 . If any of them are over 10 or 12 -1 I might look at a price play. Not a race I expect to get too heavily involved in.
Race 6) Another interesting race. Pemberton after throwing in the dud 6/26 came back 3 weeks later with a really nice effort. Walker brought this guy wide early on the turn lost a lot of ground and went by some solid horses. Now gets a driver switch to Henry and even with the 7 hole I think he should get the job done. Strong top choice. Shadrock Hanover dominated much weaker and would normally be expected to dominate this class level. But this is a tough, tough field for the level. Roy, if he doesn’t have a brain freeze should be able to get him to the top. Gigondas, nice step in the right direction for him in last. Has
speed for a good trip. Have to love the driver switch on Macallan. Has speed to leave and Jmac is generally very good at getting horses outside to the top. Tymal Riggs is a huge ? And really clouds this race as far as betting. Has not raced in 6 months but barn has been pretty strong. Have to watch the board on him. Spartan General who I touted for about a month straight, doesn’t look to be the same horse he was in June at least to me. It is tough enough for him to get there when he is sharp. Picking this race 7-1-4-8. check the board on the 5.
Race 7) Touch race here. Warawee Yang did have a rough trip, used to tuck 6 hole got cover that stalled in front of him, then had to go 1st over for an 1/8th before picking up cover on the late ft, but by his standards the race was poor. Was the excuse enough to warrant that poor an effort, I would say no and try to beat him, but certainly his typical effort puts him right there. Does have a legit shot for a 2 hole trip, so that certainly could wake him up. Unbeatable Kemp was used hard early and fell apart late. Solid enough figure for the race. 8 hole no bargain, but may not be enough speed in here to pose a problem (2 of the speeds are the 1 & 2 hole). Also new barn and new barn is pretty solid. Saundra was used pretty hard in last from 9 hole (3 wide early) rail rode and got up for 2nd earning a solid figure for these last 2. Roy chose the 3, but I prefer Mcnair anyhow. Making this the horse to beat. Last page first looked promising against cheaper. Entered this class july 10th and closed okay, ended up right on the wire behind my top choice. Who sat the perfect 2 hole trip that day. Could be caught 1st over in here which wont help her cause but I make her 2nd best. Picking the race 1-3-8-5-6-9
Race 8) Not overly interested in this race. I am a Rocket disappointe 6/5. Was claimed and then took on much better. Earned good figures but did so sitting in the back of the pack. To me it makes sense to try and beat him. Obviously he can win, just will not win with my money on him. Rock and Twist looks like horse to beat in here. Finally got a good trip and responded with a big win earning a nice figure. With Flying Art out of the picture should not be as difficult for this guy to secure early position. Skylar clearly needs to leave and sit the pocket or 3 hole if it works out that way. Changes barns again, I know puddy had him before, not sure when. I am going to pass on the 2 horse coming in from a smaller track with a low percentage trainer, but this guy clearly on his best day could be dangerous. For 3rd I am going to pick the 5 curious Cortez. A couple of races in June make this guy rock solid in here. His last race at Mohawk he had the 10 post tucked got shuffled and really did not have much of a chance given the trip. Hard for me to gauge the smaller track performances but the last one looks pretty solid. Sir A had no chance sitting 9th into a 27.2 last ¼ in last. Race before earned a solid figure although he was covered up to very, very late. Picking this one
7-3-5-4-8
Race 9)Pass, No value in Logan Park, Fashion Frenzie beat him as 3/5 favorite in his last start before something went wrong. Warawee Xenia, seemed on the verge of putting things together before breaking in last. Terrible betting race imo.
Race 10) Going to give the edge to OutlawAceofSpades. For the most part this guy puts up solid figures every week. Been facing tougher competition and competing. He is versatile so Cullen can do whatever he wants and I will give this guy a slight edge. By the way if Cullen is off and Hensley drives, beware, that has not worked out very well for me. For 2nd and 3rd very little separation between the 4 and the 6. Both raced well last time out. I will focus on those 3 horses. Not a lot would shock me in this race. Most of this field is good enough on their best day.
Good luck.