Question regarding progressive betting as a function of performance validation

[Bill Cullen]

If someone has a win bet in two races at the same track on the same day, AND both of the bets involve horses coming from off the pace, AND both race paces are expected to fast, if the first horse wins from coming off the pace, should you increase the amount of money on your second win wager?

Any thoughts?

thanks,

Bill Cullen

[hurrikane]

one's an apple, one's an orange.

I would say no

[alysheba88]

No, there is no correlation

[Doug]

Probably depends on what type of betting method you have.
i.e. If you are playing 10% of bankroll and you are showing a profit after the 1st bet then I guess you are automatically betting more on the next horse.

Doug

[midnight]

No. You won the first bet because a number of things worked your way:

1) The horse was fit and ready.

2) The trainer intended to send the horse (to try).

3) The pace was (apparently) hot, as you figured, so the race set up for your horse.

4) No poor-form or otherwise non-contending horse suddenly woke up and beat you.

5) Your horse didn't encounter enough traffic problems to stop it from winning.

6) Your horse's move was timed well enough by the jockey to be successful.

7) The track wasn't biased enough towards early speed to stop your horse.

None of the above have to be true for the next race, including the last one (the track surface might be more packed down, torn up, etc.) The pace scenario doesn't have to be the same, the field size might not be the same (more horses = more ways to encounter traffic and more "sudden wakeup horses"), and the price (tote odds) might not be the same.

While you may have the same situation, you're more likely to have completely different ones, or like hurikane said: an apple and an orange.

[formula_2002]

If someone has a win bet in two races at the same track on the same day, AND both of the bets involve horses coming from off the pace, AND both race paces are expected to fast, if the first horse wins from coming off the pace, should you increase the amount of money on your second win wager?

Any thoughts?

thanks,

Bill Cullen

To some extent, that can be tested.
We can actually test for a whole bunch of duplicating conditions on any specific day, any specific track, any specific track and race profile. I'll take a shot at it.
(Anything to keep me away from the betting windows :) )

[RunningWild]

Bill Cullen (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=1393)

If your at the track just for the Day? Then I say bet the next horse.

[hurrikane]

never said 'don't bet the horse'.

Just don't increase the bet because you won the previous race.

the two races are not related

[Bill Cullen]

Thanks for some interesting comments. Personally, I never progressively bet in the scenario I described above, and judging from the comments posted here in this thread, there does not seem to be any real reason to start doing so now.

Bill C

[formula_2002]

To some extent, that can be tested.
We can actually test for a whole bunch of duplicating conditions on any specific day, any specific track, any specific track and race profile. I'll take a shot at it.
(Anything to keep me away from the betting windows :) )

I ran through a small number of races based upon the above. Keep the day job.

Bill, one further thought about progressive betting.

I ran some lengthy test using Craps pass line odds betting, and what I concluded is this;

Each betting unit is really a flat bet in different increments.

If you had a progression of 100 $1 , 50 $2, 25 $4 bets, the sum of the $1 bets would lose the same % as the sum of all the other individual bets.

The results are the same as a flat bet for each betting increment.