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Jaguar
04-07-2002, 10:50 AM
Some races can be more accurately predicted by telling the computer to extend the length of the race artificially, so that the horses being rated for pace and speed can be shown slowing at a different fps rate.

The point being that horses dropping in class today may not tire as rapidly as competing horses which are not dropping in class today.

Making models based on the actual distances horses ran before sometimes is not the best technique per se.

The potential effect of a horse's dropping in class today, can sometimes be better shown on the computer screen by extending a race carded for 6f to 7f, etc.

Jaguar

Tom
04-07-2002, 11:21 AM
How do youextend the distance? If the hore has been tiring in his PP's, then won't your extension be off? Sounds like you may be doing this already?

Jaguar
04-07-2002, 07:43 PM
Tom, some handicapping software allows for "What If" pace scenarios, as you may know.

Unfortunately, examining a horse's finishing time in a sprint, for example, can be misleading- because the jockey may have gotten
his horse really rolling only at the end of the race, and sometimes too late.

In contrast, using differential calculus to measure that horse's rate of acceleration and deceleration, could tell us that the horse closed so strongly that when he drops in class and stretches out,
he will likely get the money.

Many times I have won money on horses that are stretching out. and that are dropping in class- when the software told me that the horse closed last time out at 55fps or faster at a sustained rate.

This is a great feature, but not all software has it.

jaguar