If you play College Basketball check this out

[Shacopate]

http://kenpom.com/rate.php?year=2004

It's free.

Just click on the team name in blue to get stats and predictions on your favorite team, or the one your interesting in playing.

I've found it pretty accurate.

[kingfin66]

Needless to say I added that to my Sports Handicapping favorites folder. Will study it more later.

[RERACING]

Thanks for the tip, I only bet horses and college hoops.

[Valuist]

IMO, college sports are the toughest games to gamble on. 18-20 year old kids are so up and down and do the stupidest things. I gave up betting college football for good a few years ago because I was getting so frustrated watching all the stupid mistakes. I'm convinced the dumbest athletes on the face of the earth are college football players.....even high school football players are smarter. Probably because most are fans of the game and know they won't be playing at a higher level while most college players get by on pure athletisism and haven't really learned the game yet.

[46zilzal]

IMO, college sports are the toughest games to gamble on. 18-20 year old kids are so up and down and do the stupidest things.


Agree... Podunck Junction can beat Duke when they get motivated

[Pace Cap'n]

I'm convinced the dumbest athletes on the face of the earth are college football players....

Answer: Drool

Question: What did the center get on his SAT's?


RIP, Karnak

[Shacopate]

Agree... Podunck Junction can beat Duke when they get motivated

Pomeroy has Duke + 25 (90%) over Podunck Junction. The Flying Penquins had better start listening to some old Tony Robbins tapes.

[Valuist]

Zilzal-

In betting sports, it doesn't matter who wins straight up. If Podunk is getting enough points, they absolutely can cover against Duke.

[Shacopate]

Good point Val,

Since you put so much effort into the Key Race, I think I'll post Pomeroys picks vs. the line for this saturdays games. Which line do you think I should use? USA TODAY maybe?

Anxiously awaiting your next KR!

Of course, the PJ Flying Penquins don't exist and there was no actual Pomeroy prediction. But your point is well taken.

[Valuist]

Shacopate-

There was another which I forgot to add. Don't have my charts here now but it was an open co. Mdn at Aqueduct back in mid December. I think the winner was named Mr. Congeniality.

As for getting a line, I'd use either Pinnacle, CRIS or WSEX.

[Shacopate]

21 out of the top 25 teams on saturday.

Anything with a 2 or more point difference is considered (by me) to be a Pomeroy pick.

14 of the 21 are considered "to close to call" or less than a 2 point difference.

Here are the 7 "picks". Again, this method is not endorsed by Pomeroy, just something I made up to mess around with.

UCLA (+16) at Washington
Villanova (-9) v Providence
Syracuse (-7) v Notre Dame
Boston College (-2.5) at Seton Hall
Alabama (+3.5) at Florida
Stanford (+10.5) at Arizona
St. Johns (+15) at UConn

Let's see how the ball bounces.

[toetoe]

Pace Cap'n'

A: Wrong, manhole-breath.

Q: What did Karnak reply to Ed McMahon's spiel?
Ah, Ed Mcmahon. Now, THERE was a quarterback.

A: Pass the hat.

Q: What does a cannibal do eight hours after devouring Minnie Pearl?

[Shacopate]

Val,

2-5 against the spread. Ouch!

I think I'll do this again, might throw in some weekday games with the saturdays until I get a 100-game sample.

[BetHorses!]

Shacopate,

Everybody has bad days, a bigger sample is a must.

By the way West Virginia went to +4 against Pitt they had +2
West Virginia won outright

[freeneasy]

i handicapped about 15 teams yesterday using my super sonic secret system of the century and came up with 3 bets i liked and played in a 3 team parlay. kentucky, duke and boston college. all won. today i came up with north carolina to win by a combined total of 21 giving up -13 1/2 over florida. they won by 20. i bet nc in a parlay with new england.
college is tough and i see a lot of games that initionaly look good like ball state today (10-6 overall, 5-3 conf.) over marshall (3-14 overall, 0-8 conf.) with my figs being for ball state to win by 11 and having to give up 10 points to marshal today. but i put each team through 4 system checks and came up with ball state to win by 7.8 in one check, 19.8 in another, 3.8 in another and 11.6 in the last check, coming out to make a total of ball state to win by 10.75. but in those 4 checks ball state couldnt cover the spread in two of those checks (7.8 and 3.8) and i require that ball st. cover in all 4 checks to make it a bet. but what made them look so good for the cover was their comparitive win-loss record overall and in conference play. ball st. was not a bet but certainly youd think they should at least win, they lossed outright. tomarrow i got utah (17-3 and 5-0) tobeat unlv (9-8 and 2-3) by 6, 3.95, 15.1 and 7.65 totaling utah to win by 8 respectivly. now for today, the predictive line for tomarrow, might come out with utah -1. if so then utah beats that line in all 4 checks and the total gives utah an 8 point advantage against the spread. bet time.

[cj]

Maybe its the horse player in me, but when I'm in Vegas, I don't bet point spreads on sports, I find underdogs I think have a real shot and bet the money line. It has served me pretty well the few times I've bet sports, but not enough that I want to bet sports any other time outside of Vegas. No fun in those less than even money cashes you get in sports betting ATS.

[kingfin66]

All of your system checks and all sounds great, especially if can hit you a winning percentage. Question: Why play the parlay? Parlays are a sucker bet because you don't get paid off at the true odds.

[Valuist]

I won't completely avoid CBB. Louisville is a team I follow, not because I'm a fan but because they are so streaky. It must be the nature of the full court pressure; over the past three seasons, UL is 32-16 ATS in all games BEFORE Feb. 1. From Feb 1 onward they are a woeful 9-20 ATS. Obviously the team is getting burned out. I'll keep fading the Cards the rest of the way.

Kingfin-

Generally that's true re: parlays, especially as the parlays grow. But correlated parlays can often be good plays. Theoretically the side and total are independent events but realistically they often are not. For instance, take a defensive-minded team like the Spurs or Pistons; when they cover, the game is also likely to go under the total. OTOH, a team like the Indy Colts or Phoenix Suns are more likely to go over the total when they cover.

[Shacopate]

Tuesday,

Clemson (+2) v GA Tech
Illinois (-15) at Michigan
Iowa St. (+5) at Nebraska
VA Tech (+12.5) at Maryland

Wednesday,

Duke (+2.5) v North Carolina

[Valuist]

Shac-

Illinois is a tremendous team but I'd be very leery of laying 15 on the road in a conference game.

[Shacopate]

Louisville is a streaky team and Pomeroy has them ranked 3rd in the country right now. They can't press as much this year because of depth, but they've got a great starting lineup; Fransico Garcia plays the 3 is a lottery pick, point guard Taquan Dean has range anywhere within half-court, Larry O'Bannon is underated at the 2 and is having his best season. At the 4, Freshman Juan Diego Palacios is being touted by Pitino as the "next Jamal Mashburn". And Ellis Myles; after missing all of last year with a knee injury, gives them rebounding and toughness inside at the 5.

Brandon Jenkins gives them quality minutes off the bench, but that's about it.

This team D's up hard and can stroke it like nobody else, but foul trouble is the main concern.

I should have mentioned in my last post that the picks where based on Pomeroy vs. Pinnacle betting line using the forementioned 2 pt. difference. 2-5 right now, but I'm interesting in seeing what a 100 game sample looks like.

[BetHorses!]

I should have mentioned in my last post that the picks where based on Pomeroy vs. Pinnacle betting line using the forementioned 2 pt. difference. 2-5 right now, but I'm interesting in seeing what a 100 game sample looks like.



Shacopate,

I would use minimum 3 pt differences between Pomeroy and Pinnacles opening line. The reason I say opening is, you can see if the real line moves towards your line (in this case Pomeroys line) which is one indication whether or not your line is sharp.

I posted a selection last night where I was betting against Boston College, I made the game Notre Dame -3 it opened at pick, I bet, ND went off at -1.5 come game time, some places -2. When I see my line has at least a 3 pt. difference from the opening I get down provided no injuries or suspensions

[Shacopate]

Good idea, I'll use a 3 point difference from now on. Nice call on ND btw.

[freeneasy]

my line had em at -9 and i played michigan with seton hall at +2 1/2

[freeneasy]

i play the win bet as well but i do like the parlay better. i know you dont get the true odds but i dont know, just sump'em about it.
wed. i have 4 plays with geo. mason -8, old dominion -6, alabama -2 and duke +2 1/2. i took the first 3 teams in a parlay and made a lesser bet with duke in a 4 team parlay. probably the biggest reason i play the parlays is because i am convinced that the teams i bet are going to cover. once they meet all my criteria. actually my criteria is a 7 point check more then a 4 point check and when a team passes all 7 points for me thats cause for a bet. and since i expect them all to cover, then hey i like to take em downtown in a parlay.

[freeneasy]

i play the win bet as well but i do like the parlay better. i know you dont get the true odds but i dont know, just sump'em about it.
wed. i have 4 plays with geo. mason -8, old dominion -6, alabama -2 and duke +2 1/2. i took the first 3 teams in a parlay and made a lesser bet with duke in a 4 team parlay. probably the biggest reason i play the parlays is because i am convinced that the teams i bet are going to cover. once they meet all my criteria. actually my criteria is a 7 point check more then a 4 point check and when a team passes all 7 points for me then thats cause for a bet. and since i expect them all to cover, then hey i like to take em downtown in a parlay.

[Valuist]

See post # 20. I was on Michigan also. Double digit road favorites in conference play is a no no.

I'm on Memphis tonight. Louisville has really struggled the past 3 seasons once the calendar hits Feb. 1.

[freeneasy]

i play the win bet as well but i do like the parlay better. i know you dont get the true odds but i dont know, just sump'em about it.
wed. i have 4 plays with geo. mason -8, old dominion -6, alabama -2 and duke +2 1/2. i took the first 3 teams in a parlay and made a lesser bet with duke in a 4 team parlay. probably the biggest reason i play the parlays is because i am convinced that the teams i bet are going to cover. once they meet all my criteria. actually my criteria is a 7 point check more then a 4 point check and when a team passes all 7 points for me then thats good enough cause for me to make a bet. and since i expect them all to cover, then hey i like to take em downtown in a parlay.

[Shacopate]

With at least a 3 pt. difference.

(3-8) so far, but I think the extra point help.

Iowa +10 at Wisconsin

Minnesota -9 v Northwestern

Miami (OH) +2.5 at Ball State (I got a chance to see Ball State play earlier in the year, very quick with some slick guards. I hate this pick.) Now, watch it be the only winner.

Val,

Nice call on Michigan. Is double-digit home dogs in conference games a regular angle for you? Might have to start looking for some of these.

[Valuist]

It doesn't come up very often. And remember, home court in college buckets is worth 5 pts, not 3 like in football. Home court/field is bigger in CBB than any other sport. As for the game last night, the motivation for Illinois to cover a 15 pt spread on the road just isn't there. I think most coaches are just happy to come away with a road win; they don't give a damn by how much.

[BetHorses!]

With at least a 3 pt. difference.

(3-8) so far, but I think the extra point help.

Iowa +10 at Wisconsin

Minnesota -9 v Northwestern

Miami (OH) +2.5 at Ball State (I got a chance to see Ball State play earlier in the year, very quick with some slick guards. I hate this pick.) Now, watch it be the only winner.

Val,

Nice call on Michigan. Is double-digit home dogs in conference games a regular angle for you? Might have to start looking for some of these.


Shac-

One Caveat when you notice a big difference between lines

My numbers made Wisconsin -3 but I did NOT take the points with Iowa because Pierre Pierce was thrown off the team and he was their leading scorer. I don't think you should check the injuries or suspensions for every game during this sample but I would remind bettors to make sure all regular players are a go before wagering.

This post is not meant to take away from the Iowa victory against the spread that you posted. I have great respect for Pomeroys numbers as we are frequently on the same side (except for BC last night) ;)

[Shacopate]

6-9 overall, but I think the gap is closing with the 3 pt. consideration.

For thursday,

Cleveland State +9 at Butler
Tennessee Tech +6 at Murray State.

Val,

Michigan on tuesday, Memphis on wednesday. Call one more and you'll be hotter than that chick from the Black-Eyed Peas.

[Valuist]

The Memphis game was pretty impressive. I'm going to keep going against Louisville until they cover.

[BetHorses!]

6-9 overall, but I think the gap is closing with the 3 pt. consideration.

For thursday,

Cleveland State +9 at Butler
Tennessee Tech +6 at Murray State.

Val,

Michigan on tuesday, Memphis on wednesday. Call one more and you'll be hotter than that chick from the Black-Eyed Peas.


Better with the 3 pt differential. Now you don't even need the spread. lol two outright dog winners :)

[Shacopate]

Bethorses,

2 dogs winning outright, and big.

A fluke maybe, An employee of mine was attacked and sprayed by a skunk just two days ago, (remember I'm from Kentucky) how many times will that happen in a lifetime?

She still made it work on time, but smelled really bad.

True story, but all kidding aside.

I think the Pomeroy edge MIGHT and I stress MIGHT, lie in games outside of the top 25 where there is less national focus.

8-9 overall. 4-1 since using a minimum 3 pt. difference.

[Shacopate]

Saturday games,

Illinois -11.5 v Wisconsin
Evansville + 5 at Indiana St.
South Florida +25 at Louisville
Northern Ill + 8.5 at Toledo
Texas A&M +7 at OSU
Washington St. +5 at Oregon
Ole Miss +15 at Alabama
Towson St. +10.5 at Delaware
Nevada +5.5 at UTEP
Tennessee Tech -6.5 at Tennessee Martin
Northern Arizona +3 at Weber St.

[Shacopate]

11 picks go 4-6-1 today.

12-15-1 overall. Will continue until sample reaches 100 games.