How WIll My Horse Run Today

[betchatoo]

Several years ago William Scott wrote a book "How Will Your Horse Run Today" and I believe, for the majority of us, that is the question that if answered properly will lead to the big score. Most of the people on this board are pretty good handicappers and can tell if a horse has the ability to run with the horses in a particular race, IF, he is ready to run a good one.

So my question is, what tip-offs do you use to determine if your horse is ready to run its' best race?

Personally I have no skills looking at horses (if I can determine they have 4 legs I'm doing well) so I rely on trainer patterns (if I know the trainer) or looking back at cycles and seeing if a horse is coming back toward a pattern where it ran well in the past.

Anyone offer other ideas, suggestions?

[andicap]

Mostly form cycles a la Ragozin or Fotias, but I'm always looking for trainer patterns or tip-offs as well.
I would buy "The Odds Must be Crazy" and send away for the Sheets tapes. Even if you don't use the Sheets their patterns are useful for everyone. For example,their 3-yr old "explosive" pattern is usable with Beyer or Cramer figs I've found.

Wish I was a lot better at physicality handicapping which is probably the best skill of all to use.

A long time ago, went to the track with a veterinary candidate and he picked a lot of good horses because of their appearance. He instinctively knew based on his training which animals looked ready to run and which wished they were back in the barn or just hurt.

[Valuist]

If physicality handicapping is a weak spot, I'd strongly suggest Joe Takach's Beat the Beam video/dvd. I watched it over and over until the main points were firmly ingrained into my brain. It will more than pay for itself.

[CapperLou]

If I'm at the track--when there is a maiden race--I will take a look at them and once in awhile I'll just notice that one of them is light on his feet and his coat is aglow and he's muscled up etc. and the public is not betting him and I'll take a chance with him. Oher than that I'm not very good at noticing what a vet would see!!!

My best chances these days come from trainer angles and patterns--last week I hit a 119.80 winner at GP on a trainer play. JeffP of the board said there was a thread to post these, but I cannot find it. ($100 winners).

And---I will say as some of you here know---I think Scott's book that you mention above is the best one he wrote and I did do very well with it before the advent of software programs. He is the best handicapper of any I have ever known personally. He was special!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[kenwoodallpromos]

The horse only has to run the best race of its life if it is a maiden- otherwise it has to run good enough to win.
I'm big on finding negatives that will decrease a contender's probability of winning. That include other things but important are gate problems; outside post on a fast track; too much low-odds competition; slow track without a top jockey; racing over its head; recent breaks in training or racing; overbetting; recently claimed by a bad trainer..

[CapperLou]

Kenwoodallpromos:

Very good post---I like what you mention--very good stuff--the negatives are always very important--just like the good things!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[Pace Cap'n]

I read Scott's book this past summer and was most impressed. I would certainly put it in the top three for someone new to handicapping. And anyone could probably gain something from reading it.

He put emphasis on the 5-furlong workout within the past 30 days in order to determine a fit horse. Strictly anecdotal, but it seems to be a powerful angle.
At the major tracks, anyway. Seldom see a 5f work by the cheap claimers.

I would be interested to know if anyone had a way to quantify the impact value of this angle.

[syyamo]

I'm not certain the 5f not being utilized with cheap claimers is entirely accurate. I just happen to have a $7500 MCLM race in front of me. Of the 10 starters I count 28 works 5f or greater.

Thinking that may be an anomoly, I flipped the program a couple races and count 19 5f or greater works in another $7500 MCLM race from the same day. Some of these works are listed at 8f and are from numerous tracks around the country.

[Tote Master]

Betchatoo
Anyone offer other ideas, suggestions?
Sorry I never read that particular book, but if the author left out a topic regarding the tote board (as many other so-called handicapping books do), then it wouldn’t be of much value as far as I’m concerned. I’m sure, that based on some of the previous responses and comments on this forum that I am not in your aforementioned “majority”. Although, I do consider myself a very knowledgeable player after all these years, I simply place more emphasis on the betting side of the game. So for whatever it’s worth these are my ideas, and although they’re not exclusive they are certainly in the minority around here.

You’re right in pointing out that most decent players can predict which are the most likely contenders in a race. If that’s the case, then why aren’t they repeatedly connecting with those big scores that you asked about? Well, my feeling is that aside from having so many differing opinions about which those contenders are, they either ignore or reject the power of money. I believe that a horse (any horse) is ready to roll when the money says so.

Generally speaking, you can use whatever types of traditional handicapping techniques are available to you. Then you can attempt to see how the race will play out, based on the handicapped results of those entered and the existing track conditions. You can then establish which of those best fit the conditions and have the most likelihood of doing well. Unfortunately, any prediction is based all of the entries running to their anticipated form and projected speed ratings. If any one or more of the contenders doesn’t run true to the plan, the entire scenario breaks down. So ask yourself, why wouldn’t they run to form (good or bad) if they’re all really trying? After all, if we think that they’re supposedly trying, and we know they’re condition and speed, then in all likelihood we should also be cashing lots of tickets! Sounds simple enough!

Well, when things don’t work out, the “majority” might come up with any number of excuses for why their horse didn’t perform well. Some will say it bounced, others blame the jockey, then there’s the bad trip, I could go on and on. Well, I won’t bore anyone with more of those same old lines. I will simply say that maybe, just maybe there’s a reason that no one but those closest to those horses knew exactly why. Not after the race, but before!
Betchatoo
So my question is, what tip-offs do you use to determine if your horse is ready to run its' best race?
To answer your question from my perspective (and not the majority’s), I will refer to another old line that goes, “Just show me the money”! In this game there’s only one place you’re going to find it. Certainly no one has a monopoly on this information, its public domain. Maybe that’s why the “majority” ignores it? Or perhaps it’s too complex to decipher? Whatever the case may be, rest assured that the pulse of the entire industry is literally “riding on it”. It’s the Money that makes them run, not necessarily how much (the odds), but rather when and where its placed. And you can take that to the bank!

Lots of Luck!

[Pace Cap'n]

Commercial's getting old.

[Pace Cap'n]

At some tracks I play a $7500 claimer would be a G2 stakes runner.

[rmania]

Several years ago William Scott wrote a book "How Will Your Horse Run Today?
How will YOUR horse run today? Well, unless you own the horse or it’s the only horse you plan to bet regardless, then I would think that you would want to know how ALL horses in the race will run today. After all, even if you knew for sure that YOUR horse was set to run the race of it’s life, it could still finish off the board.

In a previous thread I suggested that today’s performance could possibly be linked directly to a horse’s most recent race.

What I failed to mention is that I have actually spent time applying this idea and I have had some amazing results. Most of my success has come in identifying extreme performance reversals (+ or – 20 lengths from it’s previous start) and in these cases I was able to predict the actual running time within a fifth of a second.

[hurrikane]

Commercial's getting old.

Amen brother.

[midnight]

I'm also getting tired of threads being hijacked with what amounts to a thinly-disguised ad for the tote-works website.

I always felt that the methodologies in Scott's books were somehwat backfit to the workouts he provided, especially his first one "Investing at the Racetrack", where it appeared that several exceptions to the rules were provided to get additional winners.

[hurrikane]

I would agree with you midnight.

Scott was way down on my list of authors and I"m not sure I ever made it all the way through his books...tried but couldn't do it...

I agree with you on tote too...but that goes without saying at this point.

I swear I think he's Jack Hanna (TrueForm) reincarnated

[Maxspa]

All,
With the amount of handicapping information that is available, I'm surprised that a software developer hasn't come up with a Trainer and horse model. Specifically trainer techniques with workout types, days in between races, layoffs and class changes. Horse information regarding the types of horses that like to win and others that have seconditus(Remember Jacques Who). There would have to be standard set and if a horse didn't meet that standard and/or it's own pattern, then a red flag would signal a possible poor effort today. In addition Thorograph numbers or similar coud be added to the mix. Perhaps with this additonal information one could handicap the qualified
horses for the traditional types of handicapping techniques.
Maxspa

[CryingForTheHorses]

I'm not certain the 5f not being utilized with cheap claimers is entirely accurate. I just happen to have a $7500 MCLM race in front of me. Of the 10 starters I count 28 works 5f or greater.

Thinking that may be an anomoly, I flipped the program a couple races and count 19 5f or greater works in another $7500 MCLM race from the same day. Some of these works are listed at 8f and are from numerous tracks around the country.

Lots of trainers love to drill their horse's 5 furlongs week after week getting ready for their first race.When you claim a horse you in a way are handicapping but in a much bigger way.When I see LOTS of 5 furlong works in a maiden race,It tells me the horse is fit but Im thinking is he hurting from all them works,Also the faster the work tells me it may also be a red flag as the trainer may be trying to set some poor guy up to claim his horse.Say you see a horse with 1 3/8 works in 36 then 1 week later a 3/8in 35 3/5 then the folling week a 1/2 in 48 flat then see him in for $12.500. That there would make me very leary Myself I keep them fresh and let them work in the afternoon.

[Maxspa]

McShell,
From my days as a harness trainer, I found other trainers to be very repetative at how they handle their stock. They always tried to get an edge with vitamins, shoeing or equipment but the actual training regimen regarding the animals, was for the most part, what worked for them in the past.Trainers basically are a very conservative group. Some trained their animals hard, others raced their horses into shape. These training signs can be picked up by stats. Another clue can be the go to rider when the stable is ready to win. This is an area where research can really help a handicapper. I know the above mentioned situations are only a few of the important ones that can be monitored. Class rise and class drops are examples of important trainer clues for today's race.
How will your horse run today? Probably we can tell from your past performance as a trainer!
Maxspa

[Tote Master]

Maxspa
Some very interesting comments, and they make good sense. The only observation that would I differ with is the trainer techniques that are described. I believe that most “successful” trainers know a variety of training routines. From what I understand, they attempt to apply these methods based on the quality of their stock with the understanding that each animal under their care is unique unto itself. I’m sure there are also many trainers (as you suggested) that simply try to employ more of a one- dimensional training approach. Maybe they specialize in working with a specific class of animal. My gut feeling is that a trainer should first recognize what he has to work with before he uses certain training techniques. This I imagine this would only come from experience in learning how to deal with certain types of animals.

Its kind of refreshing to hear you speak about jockey changes, because I do believe that when the connections get serious they will make a change if necessary. (Especially when there's money involved! Their money!) I believe the rider to be extremely important when the stakes are high. I’m not sure what the consensus on the PA forum was, but in last years derby I took a very unpopular stance by pointing out that no TC was ever won by a horse that didn’t include top-notch jockey. On the other hand, I was also looking forward to finally seeing another TC winner, but the doubts remained. We’ll never know if a different jockey would have made the difference, but I know what I would have done if I owned that horse.
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On a less inspiring note, its funny how these expert players come on to these threads posting their great one-liners (excuse me, sometimes two) that are totally irrelevant to the question asked. Instead of providing some constructive and positive information, all they apparently know how to do side step the issue entirely, and post their little innuendos. Might we assume that by avoiding that simple question, that maybe these experts just didn’t quite get it? Well, apparently that’s it, because they certainly haven’t posted anything useful. Instead they suggest to now knowing the motivation for why "other" comments are made. Wow! These guys are certainly in the right game! Perhaps they should use those same talents toward knowing “How that horse will run today?

Oh, and by the way there are also subliminal messages buried within the content of my text. So be sure that you keep your head straight and you eyes focused in order to gain the full effect.

Lots of Luck!

[PaceAdvantage]

Just a friendly reminder to all....

I tend to remove whatever disruptive forces take hold of my message board. If this disruptive force technically plays by all the rules, but is still disruptive to the flow of threads for any reason, that force will still be dealt with in the swiftest and most effective manner available.

Ensuring a smooth flow of ideas and information is always the goal. It is rarely achieved, but it is the goal....

Ya'll have been warned....

If anyone out there is thinking that this note is directly aimed at them, they're probably thinking correctly! :D

[Maxspa]

Tote-Master,
Your ideas are excellent! Many trainers would like you to believe that every horse is a unique individual and treated as such but when you get down to the nitty-gritty, successful training habits usually take over! Horses are like people sometimes: There are high strung horses with lots of talent that never gets exploited because they often get injured or even harm themselves in foolish ways like kicking the stall or refuse to be rated. There are ones that try every time even when sore and others that could care less.
Remember Tobasco Cat who was a problem in the D.W. Lucas stable, loads of talent and a head case! So yes, there are some horses that have to be treated differently but often equipment changes rather than training regimen is the trainer choice. Again great response!
Maxspa

[midnight]

Jacques Who, the occasional subject of Andy Beyer's books, ended up being a reasonbly decent allowance and small stakes (Squires Hcp winner) competitor, and he had modest success as a broodmare sire. A bit of trivia about him: he was one of the entrants in Secretariat's first race (and like Secretariat, he wasn't in the money that day).