My last Sunshine Million

[keilan]

Anyone playing Gulfstream and or Santa Anita today and feel like they were looking at the PP's from yesterday. :eek: :eek:

[Tom]

More bombs there tha Iraq! :eek:

[keilan]

Tom generally we can all go back and make a case for a horse that wins, but I gotta tell today wasn’t that kind of day for me. I‘ll be interested how others found the cards.

[kenwoodallpromos]

SA workouts were listed as "sloppy"; races as "wet fast" most of the dat; Most early leaders ran the 1st 2f at under 21.5 and the last 1f at over 12.5.
Maybe they sealed most of the track and dug up the stretch. I assume a lot of runners burned out. I caught Valentine Dancer as an overlay.

[toetoe]

I loved Zakocity and Classic Endeavor. The latter got shut off under follicularly challenged PatVa, or who knows?

[Niko]

I'm just amazed some of the super's and even pick 3's didn't pay more. Who cashes all these tickets? Are there that many number players hitting supers and pick 3's, or are they spreading that much?

[keilan]

I loved Zakocity and Classic Endeavor. The latter got shut off under follicularly challenged PatVa, or who knows?


I had Classic Endeavor and Cozy Guy as keys, also had Zakocity in the exotics but who in the hell has Musique Toujours on top who wires the field in these fractions 23.19, 46.44, 1:10.63, 1:35.88, 1:49.17. This 5yo isn't very good and has never raced this big before. Quite honestly if I had to pick on horse that couldn't win he may have been it.

Maybe a couple of more beers will erase the day.......

[toetoe]

They're spreading wider than ... uh, ya know, wide. I think it's gotta be better in the LONG, LONG run to hammer fewer combos with more money, but you never know when the Drunken Cowboy Syndrome will bite you. You think you have the only 2 or 3 tix, and ol' D.C. has it ten times. But I know almost nobody does it any other way than "spread wide, boys."

[CapperLou]

Hot Storm was picked by the JCapper software program mentioned on this board and written by JeffP of this board.

I could never have handicapped this one on my own. And with Bailey giving one of his best rides in recent memory--I still cannot believe how she paid so much to win. Crazy day--Jerry goes out west to SA and gets the money and the riders who came east lost to Chop Chop!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[keilan]

SA workouts were listed as "sloppy"; races as "wet fast" most of the dat; Most early leaders ran the 1st 2f at under 21.5 and the last 1f at over 12.5.
Maybe they sealed most of the track and dug up the stretch. I assume a lot of runners burned out. I caught Valentine Dancer as an overlay.


I had the track playing heavy the first 4 or so races and after that it became a friggen speedway. Split variant for the day may be a good idea for guys that write their own programs

[keilan]

Hot Storm was picked by the JCapper software program mentioned on this board and written by JeffP of this board.

I could never have handicapped this one on my own. And with Bailey giving one of his best rides in recent memory--I still cannot believe how she paid so much to win. Crazy day--Jerry goes out west to SA and gets the money and the riders who came east lost to Chop Chop!!

All the best,

CapperLou

How many other races did Jeff's program sniff out?

Here's another race that puzzles me SA race #4 ---I have Areyoutalkingtome and Full Moon Madness as my 2nd and 3rd horses but I’m telling you guys I need to hit the all button to find Red Warrior. I really liked the race he ran leading into this race but that race doesn’t even make him a contender. If you look at his races the over the past 21/2 years, hell he had 3 races last year and two of them were on the grass, and the dirt race wasn’t anything to write home about. Niko I went wide in several races but not wide enough :mad:

[Bubbles]

In the future, these races will be throw-outs. No scenarios remotely CLOSE to these races will unfold. Example: In the sprint Red Warrior won, the first quarter was run in under 21 seconds, the first half in 43 and change. Um...no. That happens once, twice a year, not gonna happen with this horse again.

I'm beginning to think this card isn't even racing, and that it's an EVENT between California and Florida to see who can rig their tracks better. Example: Name me one horse besides Southern Image that won last year and went on to do something in the racing world.

[ratpack]

Hot Storm was picked by the JCapper software program mentioned on this board and written by JeffP of this board.

I could never have handicapped this one on my own. And with Bailey giving one of his best rides in recent memory--I still cannot believe how she paid so much to win. Crazy day--Jerry goes out west to SA and gets the money and the riders who came east lost to Chop Chop!!

All the best,

CapperLou

All in One came up that one also but thank god for Bailey

[Tom]

Maybe a couple of more beers will erase the day.......

Or maybe a milkshake......horses swear by them. :rolleyes:

[CapperLou]

Keilan & Ratpack:

The amazing thing is that Jeff's program only had ONE play at Santa Anita today----Hot Storm!!!!

And yes----thanks to Jerry's great stretch ride---she lasted and won---I have not seen him keep a horse going like today in awhile. Today it looked like he was years younger in the stretch!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[kgonzales]

I thought the Sunshine cards today were great from a betting POV. Lots of big contentious fields.
The SA 4 sprint race looked to be a highly pressured pace, although who can predict a sub 21 1st 1/4. It wasn't too hard for me to play this race from a purely positional aspect and take the closers at a price. #3 Revello was my main play and am not sure why Desormeaux had this one so involved early. I still caught a smaller win bet on #11 Red Warrior + the exacta. I was hoping to join the $100 winners club, but can't really complain with a $97 mutuel.
Damn near had a super day when #2 Marwood, GP 9, just missed at the wire at 19-1. She takes it with a better trip. The exacta was a nice consolation.
Don't mean to gloat, but was feeling good and thought I'd share. BTW, I am really liking the cards at Gulfstream this year. I just started capping again this week after my holiday hiatus and have had success (or luck) there. Maybe it's just fresh eyes. Hope it continues.

[Tom]

Marwood was my day maker. I had it one unit win and three units place. Glad I lifted my GP ban just in time.

[BIG RED]

I was befuddled all day at SA. Most winners I could not see even remotely.

Have keilan to use a big blender and pass the shakes around.

[Tom]

They had a Larry King race yesterday. I was hoping the real Larry would interview the winning horse.
Larry: (in rapid fire)
"Milkshakes-chocolate or strawberry?
"Who's your favorite groom?
"Azeri - could you take her?"

[Blackgold]

That's the only Sunshine race I bet and I didn't figure Hot Storm to last. Keyed heavy on the closer that finished 3rd, I think and the Fulcrum that got 4th.

That's the thing about those Sunshine races. . .those that hit, HIT BIG. . . did you see the Magna 5 payoffs?

Good luck to all Sun.

[cj]

I thought the Sunshine cards today were great from a betting POV. Lots of big contentious fields.


If I had my choice, I'd take lots of big, non-contentious fields, but hey, that's just me. Keilan kept asking me in the War Room who I liked, all I could say was, "I don't know, too tough for me" or something to that effect. I started feeling bad about it!

[Niko]

Thanks to Valentines and Marwood it worked out for me also (only played 4 races of the bunch), I had CJ's opinion on most races and mine went... eenie, meanie...however you spell it.
Maybe it's time to take a Breeders Cup approach with the Sunshine. Take the horses I like and key with a couple long-shots in the 2nd and/or 3rd leg in pick 3's etc..
Maybe trainers and owners are willing to spend more money on those days leading to some surprises, maybe it's the actual competition and how the tracks are maintained....maybe....

[kenwoodallpromos]

As of yesterday, Valentine Dancer.

[cj]

Looking back at the races, I think they are a very unusual situation. Most of the horses were pointing to this day, specifically, for a long time. A lot of them are not good enough to compete for this type purse very often, so this was like the Breeder's Cup for Cal and Fla breds, at least a lot of them. Just something to keep in mind for next year, the recent races might not mean much.

[mhrussell]

..with the aftermath of the weather impacts on SA track condition, and uncertainty of the turf races staying on the turf, plus the fact that I only have TVG and would have had to go to SA (I now hate going on-track...<isn't that sad!>) I decided to work on other things and not handicap the Sunshine Millions races, even though at first glance both SA and GP looked like a good set of betting races... and then, when I saw some of the prices.. it made me just sick! Why does this always happen?

Oh, well, I did complete some much needed updates/enhancements to my spreadsheet program that have been languishing.

[Zaf]

Reminds me a bit of Cal Cup days, I always find those cards very difficult to handicap.

ZAFONIC

[kingfin66]

I feel your pain. I was busy painting my living room ceiling (a great Saturday activity), taking breaks to watch the races. After some of the bombs hit, I just had to go back and buy the form to see if I could "find" the longshots.

I know you and kgonzales are TMM users. Check it out:

...well I wanted to put a screen shot of TMM's output from race 10 at GP, but can't figure out how to get it into the post.

4 - Zakocity PPF 15
3 - Musique Tujours PPF 14
6 - Classic Endeavor PPF 13

Then gapped down to Supah Blitz, Cozy Guy, and Second of June all at 11. Ugh.

Marwood also had the top PPF in its race. I believe that Marwood would have won had it not been bumped hard and pushed very wide on the turn.

My saving grace with all of this is the firm belief that had I bet bet these horses, the results would have been much different than they were.

Congrats to all who scored BIG.

[ceejay]

From Mike Watchmaker:
Just for kicks, I calculated what a $2 win parlay on Saturday's eight Sunshine Millions would have been, and here it is: $1,147,553,098.21. Yes, that is $1.1 billion. And don't forget the 21 cents. http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=62384 (subscribers only)

[kenwoodallpromos]

I'm glad to h\ear 1.12 bil was bet on the races (+takeout).

[maxwell]

I had the 10 ( Full Moon Madness ... 11-1 ) in the 4th. He gets beat by a 46-1 bomb ( Red Warrior) . I figured the 10 was a good play at min. 7-1 odds.

All you can do is hang your head. :(

[Valuist]

I was doing well at GP before the Sunshine Millions races. Some very chaotic results in the stakes. Usually after the race you can make a pretty good case for the winner; not really so at GP last Saturday. There was several races that seemed to completely defy logic.

[rrbauer]

With head hung low and tail between my legs, I shuffled off to the fridge to find that my trip to the super had overlooked my dwindling supply of cerveza. So with a Diet Coke, doctored with lime, I headed back to my basement digs and looked ahead and noticed that the 9th race at SA was down to four horses. Voila. A Pic3 play into that race with a guaranteed payout if I get there with live tickets. So I proceed with a 3/3/4 play with extras on Batman and Roi Charmant and was lucky to catch the price in the middle and bring home the $127 a few times. This kind of bailed me out for the day and as I am learning from the other posts here, this Sunshine outing needs to be treated like the BC races, with solid handicapping taking a back seat to win bets on the longshots. It's like sitting at the BJ table in LV and you keep catching 12's and 13's for your first two cards, hand after hand and proclaiming, "I can't believe this!"

Believe it baby....and adjust accordingly.