The hottest race in New York

[Valuist]

Right now is the 2nd race on December 17. In 5 weeks, 4 horses have already broken their NY bred Maiden status from that race. What's even better, is that the winners were not in the top 3 that day, so nobody will appear in italics in the DRF. The 4th horse (Critical Care) 5th place finisher (Merger of Equals), 7th place runner (Road to Town) and 11th place runner (Lauren's Wish) have all graduated. It should be pointed out that a couple horses from that field will be running on Thursday: Lone Tree and Tomorrow's Lady. Also, the winner, Take Bazzie Out, would have to be a good candidate to handle the class rise to SNW1X.

[gillenr]

Where is Tomorrow's Lady running Thursday? Lone Tree is in AQU 1st.

[Valuist]

In Aqueduct's 6th on Thursday

[toetoe]

Thursday, also. Race 6.

[gillenr]

Thanks!

[cj]

I'm going to have to go have a look at these races when I get home. I'm curious to see how these horses stacked up against the competition on paper, and if this key race was a fast race to start with. What did these return winners pay?

[Valuist]

I'm at work so I don't have my charts with me. I'll post this info tonight.

[cj]

I'm at work also, not saying you are wrong by any means, I'm just curious as usually people who don't believe in "key races" explain them away by saying they were probably just fast races. Glad you pointed this one out, and hope you caught a few of the winners already!

[Valuist]

I missed the first 3 but caught Critical Chant at 5-1.

Lone Tree was beaten 8 lengths in that race and got a 42 Beyer so that would be about a 62 for the winner, not overwhelming.

[cj]

Here is what I found for the race: I gave it pace speed ratings of 73-60, which is above average for this class for the pace, speed average.

The horses came back as follows:
1-6 Merger of Equals was 2-1 ML, but went off at 9-2, and paid 11.60. He certainly looked like a contender to me, but not a standout by any means. (Side note - Road to Town was also in the race and didn't do much.)

1-12 Critical Chant was 3-1 ML, went off at 5-1, and won paying 12.00. Again, looked like a contender, but nothing to point him out as a superior play.

1-15 Road to Town was 8-1 ML, went of at 5-1, paid 13.80. This horse didn't look very strong on paper, but caught a very weak field with a bunch of firsters. Maybe the public is catching on?

1-20 Lauren's Wish is 8-1 ML, pays 17.00. This one was 2d lifetime start, caught another dreadful field, and beat a 3-5 ML favorite. To display how bad this field was, the 3-5 favorite had recorded a Beyer of 41 in its only race. Another returnee from the Dec 17 race ran next to last at 13-1.

I think the pace figure is what could point this race out as a key race. Also, the Dec 17th race looked very strong for this class going in, even if the final time after didn't reflect it.

[SAL]

Is it possible that there was nothing really special numbers-wise about this key race? I've seen key races that looked totally normal if you look at the fractions and final times. The only thing unusual is that a lot of runners come out and run well. It defies logical explantation sometimes.

[cj]

Sure SAL, I would even lean that way in this case, I was saying maybe that could explain it. To me, the biggest tip about the race was the strength of the field going into the race, regardless of the numbers they put up in the race itself.

[Valuist]

Sal-

Those are the best kind of key races because the speed handicappers will dismiss them. Here's an example of one from late Nov at Aqueduct. There were 2 divisions of 2YO Maiden Sp Wt races at 1 mile on Nov. 28.

The faster division was won in 1:37 4/5 by Interline. According to my charts, not one horse has broken their maiden from that field yet. Not even for a tag. The slower division was won by Harlington in 1:38 4/5. That race has seen Harlington win a GP NW1X, Monopoly Pricing win a Mdn race on the Inner Dirt, and Turn Around Tony win a M50000.

I should point out that state bred Maiden races tend to produce more graduates quicker than regular straight Maiden races because tracks tend to run more of them. But still 4 graduates in 5 weeks is very impressive.

[Valuist]

Stumbled onto something interesting in the DRF Weekly Charts re: that race. Courtesy of Dave Litfin:

"Tomorrow's Lady never threatened in her unveiling, but galloped out strongly past the wire. Follow at two turns."

[Shacopate]

This is the type of post that I wish we had more of. A Key Race forum would be nice, just kidding PA. The point is, this is the type of info that makes this board what it is. Especially coming from a top shelf handicapper. Win, lose, or draw on the results tommorrow.

Morning line has 4-1 on Tommorows Lady, I think it will be higher given the speed fig.

If the odds hold up, I'm looking to play a 7/1,2,3 and 1,2,3/7 exacta. Throwing out the top two ML choices. Of course, the tote might change my mind.

[azibuck]

I second the thoughts on this being a great thread.

Valuist -- I had Turn Around Tony on my horse watch list. I don't have my notes with me, but Nov. 28 sounds about right when I put him on the list. I think the pace of that race was faster than the other division, and that's what I look at. I guess the subset would be "key pace race."

az

[gillenr]

Tomorrows Lady goes Sun., 9th AQU.

[cj]

Cha Ching! 12.00, I'm guessing its closer to $20 without this thread, LOL.

Make that 13.60!

[Show Me the Wire]

So the next logical step is to wait for horses like Raf and Ready ( 2nd to Tomorrows Lady) to return, all the hosrse that ran strong seconds whould be good plays next out. It was very nice of Valuist to share hs key race.

[gillenr]

Thanks, & the 2nd & 3rd go on my watch list. We may make a fortune on that 12/17 race!!!!!!!!!

[Valuist]

The real live horses are If Its Meant to Be and The End is Clear, the 2nd and 3rd runners back on December 17. And of course, Take Bazzie Out, the winner who will be a strong threat to handle the rise to SNW1X.

Litfin's note on Tomorrow's Lady was the icing on the cake. Imagine this: the biggest recent key race in NY, coupled with a Pletcher second timer and Bejarano in the saddle.....and going up against a weak state bred field. Gotta love this game.

[BetHorses!]

The real live horses are If Its Meant to Be and The End is Clear, the 2nd and 3rd runners back on December 17. And of course, Take Bazzie Out, the winner who will be a strong threat to handle the rise to SNW1X.

Litfin's note on Tomorrow's Lady was the icing on the cake. Imagine this: the biggest recent key race in NY, coupled with a Pletcher second timer and Bejarano in the saddle.....and going up against a weak state bred field. Gotta love this game.

Valuist---One of the best unknown Key races I have ever seen. Nobody mentioned it anywhere but here. Thank you for sharing. You get an A+ for homework.

I am surprised Litfin did not find it, he is usually very good with key races and I frequently read his picks for info I might have missed.

Once again Thank you and excellent work

[Shacopate]

Val,

Once again --- great thread!

The only horse that hadn't ran back when you posted the thread was Tomorrows Lady, of course who won today at nearly 6-1. Thanks.

Every horse in the race has ran since 17 Dec 04.

Take Bazzie Out (the winner) was 5th at 10-1 in Alw. This one stays in my horsewatch because of the easy win in the Key Race. Odds + Potential = Play.

If It's Meant to B finished 9th on a MUDDY track right back. Will use as a playback on a fast track.

The End is Clear finished 7th on a SLOPPY track, same as above.

Sydsational finished 5th at 10-1 on a MUDDY track, same as above.

Abbagione finished 7th at 7-1 on a MUDDY track, same as above.

Thanks for the heads-up on what might be the Key race of the year. And it's still January.

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

Valuist,
Great Post . To bad I wasnt paying attention.
I liked the 1 7 4 in yesterdays 9th race.
After reading the post I checked out the chart of
the race , boy did I have a sick feeling in my gut.

Check this out


$2 Exacta 9-7 78.50
$2 Superfecta 9-7-4-1 1,899.00
$2 Trifecta 9-7-4 592.00

Had I seen this earlier would have Keyed the 9 with my selections
As Joe ( Winmanwin) says Would Of , Could Of & Should Of

I missed the boat But I happy lots of u didnt
Valuist keep up the good work. have a Winning Monday All

Jimmy

[cj]

Valuist keep up the good work. have a Winning Monday All

Jimmy

Monday? We all need a day off once in a while, don't we? :D

[Valuist]

I may post another Inner Dirt key race tonight when I go thru my charts. It has all the ingredients of being hidden; the 3 subsequent winners were all off the board in the key race, so no italicized horses in the DRF pps; and two of the 3 winners ended up winning at different circuits so the NY only players won't be aware of it. The race was loaded with first timers, which can sometimes be a mixed bag but 2 of the horses that had started were coming off very solid races.

[hracingplyr]

how do u go about keeping track of your key races? do u just do ny? i know it has to be alot of work you must have to keep track every day and what charts do u use?

[WINMANWIN]

That Pletcher steed named Tomorrow's Lady had 1st time Blinkers ON, and showed a bullet work in a non EFFORT- or Non Try 1st time out. I always
like to view, Who these steeds ran against prior, and come up with Live race
angles, but it can be deceiving also. Ever notice, when you Cap a card and see 2 horses coming out of the same race, 1 runs UP THE TRACK, in an earlier race on the card, and the other Wins convincingly :confused: My point is, just when you think you have a LIVE OR DEAD RACE, They set you
back to Reality :D

[Valuist]

Hracingplyr-

Yes it is a lot of work. But like Arnold said in Pumping Iron, no pain, no gain. I use the DRF weekly charts. I follow NY, Chicago and Kentucky but also do GP in the winter. I also back off a bit on Ky in the winter and pick up the FG. If you play Kee/CD or Bel, you really need to do GP. And if you play both Haw and Kee/CD, you really need to do the FG charts as well.

[hracingplyr]

wed in the 2nd race it's meant to be goes, he is one of the horses that came out of that key race dec 17 and go a muddy track.

[Valuist]

Won by Mr. Congeniality, is an open company key race. 8 first time starters, and all 3 horses who'd run were coming off in the money finishes. 6th place runner Tashdeed won a Mdn at Aqu in his next start, 8th place runner Circuit Rider won a Mdn race at Pimlico, and 9th place runner Giant Wrecker won a Mdn at Gulfstream. When deep also rans win out, its a very strong sign. Ironically this was the slower of 2 divisions of Mdns on Dec 18 and the winner of the other division (Diamond Wildcat) is the only one to win back from the other division.

Cold Chicken, 7th in the key race, runs today at Aqueduct. He did run once since but it was at 9 furlongs. Now he's back in a sprint, getting Lasix and blinkers. Realistically he should be double digit odds because there's a few others that would appear to have more solid credentials. But definitely a threat to be in the tri at a price.

[Shacopate]

I just added 6 horses from this race into my horsewatch.

Mr. Congeniality the race winner was 5th last out on TURF, looking for the winner to come back on dirt.

Prairie Lites was second and has not raced since.

Commodity Trader was third in the KR as has not ran back yet.

Bones Ferrone was 5th in the KR, ran out against similiar, but I'm keeping this one in because of the 8-1 odds last out and because he beat the three comeback winners you mentioned in the KR.

Dakota South finished poorly in a route on a SLOPPY track, looking for a fast track sprint for this one.

Wiredforspeed ran out in a route in last, again --- looking for a turnback.

Thanks again for your work and generosity.

[Shacopate]

If It's Meant to B, from the first KR is entered wednesday in the 2nd race at AQU. Two days ago she worked 3f in 35.40, (1/24!!!)

[Valuist]

Thanks for the heads up Shac. I'll be heading out for an early lunch to catch it.

BTW, I see Litfin made note of the Dec 17 key race in the recent DRF Weekly charts.

[BigAppleRacing]

If It's Meant To B looks very strong to me. I love the return to 6f's and the 3 works since the route experiment.

----------------------------------------------
http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1v97a/

[Shacopate]

Sydsational runs friday in the 4th race at AQU. Returns to a sprint after racing 5th last out in a route on a muddy track (went off 10-1). Set the early pace that day with a quick 23.00 opening quarter.

She also brings my favorite angle into this race: Early Speed in MSW with a drop into Maiden Claiming, as of yet I do not know if it's restricted for state-breds --- very important.

This one looks like a winner and the price might surprise you.

[Buddha]

[U]

She also brings my favorite angle into this race: Early Speed in MSW with a drop into Maiden Claiming, as of yet I do not know if it's restricted for state-breds --- very important.



Not restricted to state-breds, but dont know what the field looks like because I havent downloaded the drf yet

[al2468]

Is there a way to get an e-mail to get for watching horses? that ones u want to follow when they run
THanks Guys!!

[GeTydOn]

Equibase has a service for tracking horses.

[Buddha]

Is there a way to get an e-mail to get for watching horses? that ones u want to follow when they run
THanks Guys!!
Yea, Equibase's Virtual Stable is what I use. I think Bris has something similar as well.

[Buddha]

Sydsational runs friday in the 4th race at AQU.

His entrymate looks decent as well after coming from the 11 hole last time. Coudl be a single to start a pick6 after the 2 day carryover.

[Buddha]

Golden Niner ended up winning, but at a measly 4/5

[gillenr]

Two which ran 2,3 to Tomorrows Lady are in Sat. - AQU 1.

[Shacopate]

Abbagione runs wednesday the 16th for NY-bred MSW. Fast track preferred.