Devere Tote System

[Speedster449]

I have downloaded and am looking at At The Races Pro. Does anyone know where I can find information about the Devere Tote System? Does anyone know how to interpret this information?

Thanks

[NoDayJob]

Probably buried somewhere in the 120 page manual? Maybe the reviewer knows?

NDJ

[Speedster449]

The manual just says enough to make it sound interesting without many details on how to use it.

[toetoe]

Speedster,
I'm going to invest $99 in At The Races Pro. A tool that can make me more businesslike, I figger.

[Tote Master]

Speedster449
I have downloaded and am looking at At The Races Pro. Does anyone know where I can find information about the Devere Tote System? Does anyone know how to interpret this information?
The manual just says enough to make it sound interesting without many details on how to use it.
Thanks
You didn’t think I’d pass up on a thread like this?!

Well, it’s a pleasure to see that there are those who have an interest in the potential value of the tote board. Unfortunately, your message seems to indicate some dramatic shortcomings in this program, especially if it's that difficult to interpret. Is the manual really 120 pages?

Its not surprising though, because even a basic analysis of the tote board can become very complex. With a true analysis, I believe that not only do you have use the primary data (money wagered, and I mean all the money), but there must be logic, statistics, and even the element of human psychology built into any worthwhile analytical formula. (I even include some basic Bayesian Model Averaging to account for many of the uncertainties inherent in any statistical model).

The tote board on its own is considered by most players to be simply a place to display the “odds” on each entry during the entire betting cycle of each race. Perhaps that’s why most ignore it, and maybe they’re right in doing so. Because, the odds on their own reflect only a single portion of the mutual pool and has nothing to do with any of the money bet in the exotic pools. So, there’s an immediate short-coming right off the bat. In my mind, the odds on the board should only be used as a means to gauge value. In other words to see if a bet is actually worth making.

To answer your question, the Devere Tote Grid (as they describe it), “gives bettors a visual take on the ebb and flow of any race’s betting action, minute-by-minute, from the opening of betting to the close. Some handicappers have been creating and studying hand-drawn versions of the Devere Tote Grid display for many years. The display translates the betting action for each horse in a race into a graphic treatment that makes trends readily recognizable.”

This sounds great, except that formulas used to do the translation that generate the values used in plotting the flow of the graph are limited. They are also not based on any statistical modeling, because if they were the graph would not to have to plot the results of the betting activity minute-by-minute. A reliable statistical model can identify the key time intervals prior to post time that will repeatedly demonstrate the betting patterns (trends) that are unique to each track. When those intervals are identified, then and only then should the formulas be applied. I have found over many years and thousands of races that a “boiler plate” type formula is definitely indequate for properly analyzing the betting activity for each individual track. In fact, the model has to even include factors such as the number of betting interests in a race. They always fluctuate, but so do many other things like the type of bettors that play during the week versus those on the weekend. Anyone that believes that the betting activity (or patterns) at the larger tracks in NY or CA are the same as FL, KY, TX, LA, or anywhere else is greatly mistaken. I have personally found that each track is unique.

My only concern with these elaborate programs (aside from their over simplified formulas) is that they tend to get carried away. By providing so many “bells and whistles” the everyday player or even serious user is easily overwhelmed and then immediately turned off by the sheer volume of available options and instructions. In the engineering field one principle always seems to carry the day. They call it KISS, meaning "Keep It Simple Stupid". I’ve tried to always keep it in the back of my mind, because 9 times out of 10, someone else is going to have to build or use what you’ve developed. If its too complex it will either cost too much, or be much too inconvenient for practical use.
toetoe
I'm going to invest $99 in At The Races Pro. A tool that can make me more businesslike, I figger.
So toetoe if you're serious, go get’em pal, and when your finished let us know how you made out!.

Best of luck!

[hurrikane]

ATR Pro is an excellent program at a very good price.

will certainly help your game

[hurrikane]

you know, I haven't used the devere piece with this but it will export the info for later study.

That would be the starting point IMO.

[andicap]

Despite my disagreements with Tote, I do believe that a deep study of the board can bring winners.
But I also contend that in order to study tote patterns, you need to study the individual trainers. Not every barn bets the same way, right? Don't some bet in the beginning, before the post parade. Others at the last minute. Others spread it throughout the betting so as to not to raise any eyebrows.

Therefore any study of tote board betting patterns would be based on the idiosyncracies of specific owners and trainers.

Am I correct in this assumption?

[Tote Master]

Hey andicap, we all have our own ways of playing this game. When we discuss their merits or shortcomings “Disagreements” will abound on all aspects. That’s the norm for sure!

A thorough analysis of the board not only points to winners, but I believe to value. If I were using just traditional handicapping techniques, I know for a fact that many an entry would be overlooked. Because knowing the intentions of the connections are nowhere to be found in the PP’s or any program that uses PP data.

You’re right, they all don’t bet the same way. The function of any worthwhile tote analysis is to detect their betting patterns no matter how and when they send it in. Generally speaking, the only way I have found to repeatedly do this is to make proportional comparisons between the monies in each betting pool for each entry and then evaluate that with the total monies in all the pools combined. This operation has to take place at each critical time intervals during each betting cycle. From my own experience I would have to say that the majority of connections that wager on their charges do so during the early part of the betting cycle. You’re also correct in assuming that it can be spread out. However, since there is only a limited amount of time involved, I’m sure they don’t want to miss their opportunity by betting late. Again, the human psychology factor must be accounted for.

There are many idiosyncrasies. Any worthwhile tote analysis should be developed to factor them in as much as possible. By comparison, any worthwhile program that examines all of the variable’s in the PP’s data would also have to weigh how much each variable impacts the results.

Best of Luck!

[midnight]

The Devere system was a product of Robert Devere, who used it primarily in the 1960's. It was designed for tracks with a big handle and was used back in the day when most races only offered straight wagering (WPS). It's not as useful today in the age of multiple-exotic wagering, imo, because there's too much dillution of money in the other pools.

[Tote Master]

If it was developed that far back, then think about it, they didn’t even have calculators then! I can’t even imagine how someone could possibly gather all the information on each entry, even from just the mutual pools alone. Talk about antiquated! I doubt whether it has any use what so ever today! Forget about the Exotic pools!

It’s not that the money is diluted either, its diversified. The heart of any meaningful approach to the study of any subject matter in order to draw a positive and worthwhile conclusion requires as much pertinent data as possible. Without that, the statistics, the logic, the modeling, the testing goes right out the window. How can you possibly even evaluate data with a formula when you have insufficient or corrupted data? As I mentioned, any tote analysis that doesn’t take into consideration and account for all the monies in all the betting pools, during the entire betting cycle is substandard in my mind, to say the least.

Good luck to those using it. I am light years ahead!

[hurrikane]

it appears that the system in ATR analysis the relationship between the exotic pools and the wps pools.

as i say, i don't use it but that is what it appears to be from the manual.

i'm sure the creator reads this board and could comment.

[Tote Master]

hurrikane
ATR Pro is an excellent program at a very good price.

will certainly help your game
hurrikane
it appears that the system in ATR analysis the relationship between the exotic pools and the wps pools.

as i say, i don't use it but that is what it appears to be from the manual.
Which is it?

Question hurricane: – If you don’t use it, how do you know it will help your game?

Why not state facts instead of conjecture (or possibly fiction)?
“It appears that the system….”???? What is that supposed to mean?

[midnight]

ATR has various screens that perform various functions. The graph screen, for example, allows the user to analyze the straight and exacta pools and their relationships to each other. Another screen carries the history of Win and Exacta (computed) odds on each horse from a user assigned time (up to 20 minutes) down to post time. It also has quinella and daily-double probables. It updates frequently, (from 30-90 seconds, depending on how many tracks are being analyzed). The screens that offer a history for each race can be captured to a graphics file and also to a file that can be imported into a spreadsheet. It serves several other functions, as well, including specific ones for HTR and HSH.

The program is very versatile, and at $99 per year is well worth the money for most serious players.

[hurrikane]

Which is it?

Question hurricane: – If you don’t use it, how do you know it will help your game?

Why not state facts instead of conjecture (or possibly fiction)?
“It appears that the system….”???? What is that supposed to mean?

You know Tote, I"m sure if we met we would get along just fine. I'm really a nice guy and you probably are too. I don't know of many people I have met I didnt' like and get along with.
And I"m really not against what you say and how you play..it's your way and everyone is entitled to that.

But,
you are the most arrogant, stuck on stupid, POS on this board. I don't use the Devere system part of the software asshole. i have used many other aspects of the software but not the one pertaining to the Devere system.
All I did was summarize what I read in the manual.
Hence the 'It appears that the system...."

Why don't you stick your head back up your ass and go back to seeing if you can find a winner picking 5 horses a race.

[PaceAdvantage]

Note to self: I think I am starting to understand what Getyedon meant when he/she posted about the hostility on this board.....

[midnight]

I've also used just about everything ATR has to offer except for Devere. It isn't that Devere is or isn't valid. It was probably very good back in the day when WPS betting was the only kind of wagering offered on most races and everything had to be done by hand and visual observation. It's outdated today, in my opinion, since computer programs can crunch the tote numbers available on the internet today and since much of the money is dilluted from the WPS pools and diverted into the exotics. There are better ways of using ATR to analyze tote movement.

Totemaster: with all due respect, your way, as represented on your website, isn't the only way to go about tote analysis. I used your trial for a few days. It might be valid, but I didn't see any positive correlation in it, and I couldn't begin to justify $1 per racecard per day, let alone the $25 per card per day that you were asking on a continual basis. Perhaps others can do better.

I did tote analysis back in the mid 70's and thereafter, and I still use it to a degree. It used to be all a player needed to beat the game. That's not true anymore because there are so many people doing it (most of them incorrectly) that the "live" horse that used to get bet down to 4-1 is now seen by the simulcast players and hammered down to 2-1 where it's no longer profitable. The smarter "insiders" have learned to bet their money through simulcast centers in a way that doesn't show until the race has gone off (hence a possible explanation for the dropdowns from 7-2 to 9-5 that you see so often after the race goes off).

[CapperLou]

Midnight:

A great post above!!!

And---you are so right on the money about the insiders & simulcast money coming in so late. Yes---everything has changed--it's just like most other business--you have to keep adapting.

All the best,

CapperLou

[Tote Master]

Well hurrikane, all I did was ask you a simple question? But I see that turned into another "disaster".
Apparently you got caught with your pants down, and then you turn around and call me arrogant? You perpetuate all this B.S., and make conflicting comments about the ATR, but all of a sudden you can’t provide a simple answer. Instead you resort to personal attacks (which I won’t repeat), in an attempt to bolster your credibility. Give me a break. Please don’t glorify yourself as being a friendly and humble person with all your self-serving comments. You attack my providing selections and attempt to scrutinize their ROI, and yet I haven’t seen you do it for anyone else’s. In fact I haven’t seen you offer a selection of your own. I’m not sure what your problem is, or what you have against me, but I really don’t care. My opinions are solidified at the betting window not on any forum.
PaceAdvantage
Note to self: I think I am starting to understand what Getyedon meant when he/she posted about the hostility on this board.....
Not to worry. Its unfortunate, but this kind of stuff goes on everywhere. People just love to dish it out in an attempt to boost their egos and gain credibility. Then when they find they’ve over stepped themselves, and have no answers or recourse, they simply resort to personal bashing others who point it out. Its par for the course.

[Tote Master]

Midnight
ATR has various screens that perform various functions. The graph screen, for example, allows the user to analyze the straight and exacta pools and their relationships to each other. Another screen carries the history of Win and Exacta (computed) odds on each horse from a user assigned time (up to 20 minutes) down to post time.
Thanks for the clarification. If I understand you correctly, you’re saying that the user must analyze the relationships between the mutual (straight) and exacta pools? My system does it automatically because it is built into the analysis itself. While I am not familiar with all of the other features of the ATR as you described, my feeling is that it leaves too much in the hands of the user. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I find that very convenient. Because if something is misinterpreted by the user, then only he is to blame and not the system he’s trying to use. The mere fact that there’s a (120) page manual gives the impression that it leaves too much open for explanation. Since I don’t have the manual I can’t really qualify that any further.

I also really don’t understand the comments about the mutual pools and the exotics. They’ve been around for as long as I’ve been playing. Granted the Devere system has been around since the 60’s. As I mentioned before, I find it absolutely incredible that anyone could believe that even with a team of observers, that they could possibly gather enough information from the tote board to make a half-way decent analysis, and then on top of it make a rational decision based on that analysis!
Midnight
Totemaster: with all due respect, your way, as represented on your website, isn't the only way to go about tote analysis. I used your trial for a few days. It might be valid, but I didn't see any positive correlation in it, and I couldn't begin to justify $1 per racecard per day, let alone the $25 per card per day that you were asking on a continual basis. Perhaps others can do better
On the other hand, my analysis (whether good, bad or indifferent) is being publicly judged based on just “a few days” of usage? You must be joking! I would certainly like to know how you determined that it showed a lack of “positive correlation”. Correlation to what? If it’s to your comprehension of the methods I employ, then I would certainly have to agree. It is impossible to make that determination, simply because I only describe the basic approach to the tote analysis. I wasn’t about to put a (120) page e-manual on-line, so that players have room to justify their own errors in judgment. I’m certainly not going to give away years of work and development by disclosing my detailed approach. Its no wonder that you couldn’t justify the cost with only a few days of use. I have members that have made enough money during the trial period alone (which is free) to justify weeks of usage. They obviously do better because they follow instructions and gain an appreciation for something that was completely outside of their game. They suddenly realize that the tote board is a lot more then just viewing the changing odds.

You’re right! It certainly is not the only game in town, but after hearing about things like the ATR and Devere schemes, like I said, I believe it is light years ahead in both analytical functionality and user friendliness. And the best thing about it is, that the results from every race at every track that’s done are completely documented and stored for future reference. My users don’t have to store a thing, because they have complete access to it. They don’t have to worry about making a mistake, because everything is done for them. If the system has a shortcoming in this race or that, they can simply blame the analysis and not themselves.
Midnight
That's not true anymore because there are so many people doing it (most of them incorrectly) that the "live" horse that used to get bet down to 4-1 is now seen by the simulcast players and hammered down to 2-1 where it's no longer profitable. The smarter "insiders" have learned to bet their money through simulcast centers in a way that doesn't show until the race has gone off (hence a possible explanation for the dropdowns from 7-2 to 9-5 that you see so often after the race goes off).
While I can’t speak for those you use alternative systems for analyzing the tote board or how they put them to use, I can say that the so-called “smarter insiders” are not gaining a thing by looking at just the odds. If that’s how they determine they’re play. The insider information that I value is coming from those who are much closer to the game and have more at stake then just a simple wager. Many are under the impression that this "late" money is coming in from a few players wagering heavily. When in fact, its coming from many players wagering at remote off-track and on-line facilities. Besides, I personally enjoy seeing the odds drop down, because more often then not the truly live horse suddenly becomes an overlay. From what I’ve witnessed over the years, “early money” far outweighs “late money”. But, to each his own!

Best of Luck!

[Speedster449]

Even though it has been a few days since my original post, I appreciate all of the imput. I have gained much information.


Thanks to all.

[hurrikane]

??