Gambling on the Horses

[bet2win2]

I read alot about bankrolls and systems where you lose 10 cents on the dollar and systems where you can steal other programs and put it theirs. But what do the gamblers that don't have a $2000 dollar bankroll do.. Here's how i play i take a $100 to play with, i play mostly pick3's 4's and a few trifectas, i don't care about the take out and i don't bet favorites and when i play 2 or 3 times a week i make money, I don't bet on the internet (because big brother is watching) I learn alot sometime from this site, but there is alot of BS, most losers are looking everywhere to break even, not win, break even. I know winning on the horses is the best in the world, but betting on the horses and losing is the next best thing. Now how does the average person like me that can afford to spend $400 a month play to make money, mine is simple, when i lose my hundred i go home, today (monday) hit one race at turf pardise for $400+ on a $12 trifecta ($1 tri top over three and reviersed it) lost most bets at FG, last weekend with my $100 cleared $700, I enjoy trying to be smart and going home with their money. Now the Question is how does the average player try to make money

[jotb]

Now the Question is how does the average player try to make money[/QUOTE]

The average player finds another hobby. The smart player stays alive and the one who does not play is way ahead of the game.

Joe

[Buckeye]

Sounds like we should be asking you.

One thing I see you're doing that I agree with is betting without fear.

Big advantage.

[bet2win2]

asking me would probably be the wrong answer, i just like to bet on the horses to get the best out of my money and time, I do know i have a system i play, but it may change every day, i read all i can and listen to others if they like it i usually play against it, i had rather lose my $100 than trying to figure out what i'm going to get on ROI, i know either i've got money or i get more for the next time i play, just can't see that i'm going to make 2% plus rebate, hell i did that when i worked for a living, now i take it win or lose and enjoy the gamble

[dav4463]

I think you should keep records of the types of races that generate the most profit for you and play those more seriously, while avoiding the ones that you don't hit very often. You definitely have the right attitude for gambling !

[kenwoodallpromos]

You answered your own question- after the 3rd racecard, do not bet more than $2.00 per race.
"Losing is the next best thing" is a defeatist attitude. Practice leaving emotions out of the equation by turning your head and not watching the races you bet on for awhile. The races I enjoy watching the most are the ones I do not bet.
But I do like gambling- just the winning!

[NoDayJob]

Practice leaving emotions out of the equation by turning your head and not watching the races you bet on for awhile.

Very sound advice. If you can get information by watching the races, then by all means do so. I quit watching them years ago. Just imagine you own an doughnut shop and you watch the doughnuts being made day in and day out. They're all the same shape, aren't they? So are the races--MOO!

NDJ

[Tote Master]

bet2win2
I read alot about bankrolls and systems where you lose 10 cents on the dollar and systems where you can steal other programs and put it theirs. But what do the gamblers that don't have a $2000 dollar bankroll do.. Here's how i play i take a $100 to play with, i play mostly pick3's 4's and a few trifectas, i don't care about the take out and i don't bet favorites and when i play 2 or 3 times a week i make money, I don't bet on the internet (because big brother is watching) I learn alot sometime from this site, but there is alot of BS, most losers are looking everywhere to break even, not win, break even. I know winning on the horses is the best in the world, but betting on the horses and losing is the next best thing. Now how does the average person like me that can afford to spend $400 a month play to make money, mine is simple, when i lose my hundred i go home, today (monday) hit one race at turf pardise for $400+ on a $12 trifecta ($1 tri top over three and reviersed it) lost most bets at FG, last weekend with my $100 cleared $700, I enjoy trying to be smart and going home with their money. Now the Question is how does the average player try to make money

bet2win2
I’ll give your question a shot, but before I do, I have to say that your opening comments use a lot of key words that tells us quite a bit about your betting profile. Whether you know it or not you’re already using a system, so to speak. You’re not playing favorites and you’ve decided either by your results or by sheer enjoyment to make only certain types of bets. You’re 3rd ingredient is crucial: Your goal is winning money. Period! The only phrase I have a problem with is that you’re “going home with their money”. Until you realize that the money is YOURS there will be a tendency to give it back too easily. (which you also confirmed by saying that, “betting on the horses and losing is the next best thing” to winning).

In my opinion (and I'll try to be breif), I believe that the average player (or the player at any level) has to use a decent method for attacking each side of the (2) key playing areas of this game: One for the selection process and one for the betting process. They’re on opposite sides of the fence, but the results of either side will also have a psychological effect on how we continue to make selections and how we bet them. For instance, if you’re selections are winning at a reasonable rate, but you’re not making money (or enough money), it simply illustrates a flaw in the betting process. Instead of making a correction in that area, there is sometimes a tendency to become dissatisfied or lose patience and then start playing longer priced entries (or make more exotic type bets). That’s okay, as long as we can accept the fact that we’re just not going to win as frequently. The important thing again is “how much you’re winning” based on how often you’re winning. That’s the psychological barrier that ALL players must hurdle.
Buckeye covers it perfectly by stating:

One thing I see you're doing that I agree with is betting without fear.
Big advantage.
The only way to achieve the “NO FEAR” factor is to simply accept the fact that you’re going to lose sometimes, but when you win, it will compensate for all your losses. I know some are saying, Well how do I know that will happen?

Well I’m sorry to have to bring it up, but its called Money Management 101. The majority of players believe it or not scoff at this concept. Whether you have $400 or $4000 a month as a bankroll, it makes no difference. The important thing is that you’ve accepted some starting point. Once that’s set up, the next thing to do is to honestly establish a realistic Win Frequency over at least a (20) race cycle using whatever type of betting technique that you enjoy most or believe in. (I would recommend betting on paper first). Your selection process should remain consistent using whatever system you employ.

Once you’ve determined how often you can realistically win a bet, its important then to focus on how much you can start with and breakdown your bankroll accordingly. For instance, using a (20) race cycle and $400 bankroll over say a (1) month period, our minimum bet would be lets say $20. (Or 5% of our Bankroll) With a Win Frequency of say just 20% (losing 16 out of 20 or $320) the odds on the winning selections have to average at least 4/1 to break even. But we don’t want to breakeven, we want something in return for all our efforts. In that case, we have to do one of two things, either improve our Win Frequency or select entries with higher value and maintain the same WF. This is the basic format for success, because it drives us to either improve our selection process, or forces us to use selections with higher value. Improving the selections will permit us to maintain the (20) race cycle over the same (1) month period. Looking for more value over a (20) race cycle will more then likely increase the time period in which we find these preferred bets. We have to be a bit more patient.

The bottom line is once we can establish an actual profit margin through whatever techniques (system) we use, the “FEAR” factor drops out of our head. Because, we know we’re going to win enough to cover our losses. Once that happens we can also anticipate that we will make better judgment calls on future selections, thus improving our WF. When each (20) race cycle is over, we can re-evaluate our profit margin and make further adjustments if necessary. We have to basically decide whether we want to win more frequently at lower average odds (returns) or less frequently (if we can tolerate it) at higher average odds. The choice is easy, but staying the course isn’t. Unfortunately, human nature drives us to do foolish things, especially when we get greedy or even worse when desperate.

This is the part I like most. Lets assume over a number of (20) race cycles we are averaging a hit rate of 30% (6 out of 20) at average odds of 4/1. Our profit is $200 (50%) after the first cycle. If we consistently see these results, then we should likewise increase our wager by the size of the new bankroll. (5% of $600 is $30 etc., etc.) Once the WF and our demand for winning only certain valued bets is established, there are even more complex methods of breaking down the bankroll into different size bets. They actually anticipate when during the cycle we’re going to hit based on a known WF. When structured correctly and based on true results these methods can maximize the profit margins even more. But again this requires discipline.

In conclusion, I would have to say that any answer to successfully compete and win money at this game requires discipline. We have to stick with a reasonably sound selection process, make incremental wagers based on our bankroll, accept losses when they occur, and most of all enjoy this great game! Its allot easier when we're ahead.

Now that was pretty breif. Right?!
Best of Luck!

[hurrikane]

hmmm...I agree with most of the 'elementary' money management advice Tote-wacks states with one exception.

betting 5% of bank with a 20% win rate is certain doom. At some point you will have a run out (number of straight loses) that will cause bank(gamblers) ruin. The one thing no gambler wants.

That and dumping money on a system you tested on just 20 races is rediculous.

[Tote Master]

hurrikane
hmmm...I agree with most of the 'elementary' money management advice Tote-wacks states with one exception.

betting 5% of bank with a 20% win rate is certain doom. At some point you will have a run out (number of straight loses) that will cause bank(gamblers) ruin. The one thing no gambler wants.

That and dumping money on a system you tested on just 20 races is rediculous.
Well I see the “disaster” has struck again and uttered more words of wisdom!

I’m sure with his handicapping prowess that he probably would find it difficult to just break even over (20) races. Sure sounds like he has a lot of confidence in whatever he’s doing. Apparently “dumping” money is his form of Money Management, which is well below the elementary level.

Well pal, for some people it might just take more then (20) races. (It was just an example). For those like you, maybe (200) races would work. Who knows?
Some of us have been playing this game a bit longer and understand where our strengths and weaknesses are. If we’re smart enough, we’ll play on our strengths to try and maximize the win frequency.

By the way, your comments with that great attitude and demeanor pretty much sum up the type of person (and player) you are, and your username only confirms it. Next time why not just try to answer the man’s question with your own opinion and forego the sarcasm. You never know, you might even make some friends?
So good luck to you, you’ll need it!

[kingfin66]

That was a very well thought out answer. The only part I disagree with you on is betting 5% of bankroll. I think that is about 3% too much. I didn't take your 20 race cycle explanation to mean testing a system over 20 races. I really liked your post.

[bet2win2]

I understand stand money management but i don't know anyone at the otbs or tracks i go to practices it and i know a few that are consistant winners, i can understand playing on the internet you can be more selective on using money management and just playing a few races to try to increase your bankroll, most win bettors can do it i guess, since i don't play to many win bets, i try to make my money with exotics, i keep record of how my results are at different distances and class and how much money i've made/lost and i only play a couple different tracks and take trip notes on horses that should or could win next out and i do like to look for negative signs on horses in post parade and going to the gate. but most of all i enjoy the races more now that i've tried to narrow my bets and selections to make more money with less money invested, but after playing over 30 years i still make mistakes but now i check why i missed or missed bet the race, i do make a few bets when i get to the otb and then if i see something that i like i add a ticket.
playing pick3's for a $1 will play
a / abc / abc
abc / a / abc
abc / abc / a -cost $27 sometimes i drop a horse or two

and i play a couple of these a day or a pick4, if i win the first one then i invest more and if i really have horses i like i do take more money to play more races, when ahead i do take home a profit of My money

[toetoe]

Totemaster,
Why didn't you say so in the first place? That is exactly what I want to say, just so much more succinct. And another thing -- shouldn't be a big deal but it is -- the math is impeccable.

[Tote Master]

Kingfin66
That was a very well thought out answer. The only part I disagree with you on is betting 5% of bankroll. I think that is about 3% too much. I didn't take your 20 race cycle explanation to mean testing a system over 20 races. I really liked your post.
Well, it’s just an honest opinion. You’re probably right about the percentage of bankroll being too high for the "average" player. I guess players will just have to determine that for themselves, but unless they’re truly honest about the actual win frequency, they’d only be kidding themselves anyway.

Bet2win2
I understand stand money management but i don't know anyone at the otbs or tracks i go to practices it and i know a few that are consistant winners, i can understand playing on the internet you can be more selective on using money management and just playing a few races to try to increase your bankroll, most win bettors can do it i guess, since i don't play to many win bets, i try to make my money with exotics, i keep record of how my results are at different distances and class and how much money i've made/lost.
Exactly my point! Everyone notices that not many practice good Money Management. Unfortunately that’s why there are only a small percentage of players who can truly say that they’re making money on a consistent basis. Those so-called “consistent winners” that you mentioned are more then likely the typical players who always talk about their wins. The next time, ask them if they know “how much they’re actually ahead”. We all love to talk about our periodic accomplishments.

Money Management applies not to only where you’re betting, but also to any type of bet you’re fond of making. My example (above) can be related to win betting because the basic value in odds is easily recognized and understood. Some prefer a Dutch type win bet because they like to win more often, but of course they’re return is less. With this type of bet the player also knows in advance the actual rate of return because each entry is played so that no matter which one wins the profit margin is the same. On the other hand, when going for the Exotics it becomes a bit more difficult to determine what the rate of return will be. When boxing Exactas or Triples, I personally use a simple formula that factors the actual return (in dollars) of each entry in the box as if it would win. Then I multiply each entry’s return by one another to estimate the possible Exacta or Triple returns. I’m not looking for an exact number. It’s just an approximation to try and justify the value of the bet. This is how I determine whether or not the profit margin falls within the acceptable range of my known Win Frequency.

In a perfect betting scenario, I think we would be capable of knowing exactly which type of bet to make FOR EACH TYPE RACE based on the value of our selections. It would enable us to continually maximize our returns. This type of flexibility is again only profitable if we continue to maintain a known WF for each type of bet and accept only the returns that will keep us ahead. Our "level of play" then becomes the determining factor of just how serious we want to get. Good, bad or indifferent, most of us just settle for mediocrity by simply making the type of bets that we’re most comfortable with. After all it’s only a game to most, and why not stay in our "comfort zone", especially if it allows us to enjoy it even more.

toetoe
Why didn't you say so in the first place? That is exactly what I want to say, just so much more succinct. And another thing -- shouldn't be a big deal but it is -- the math is impeccable.
Totoe, I apologize for once again being so long on words, but prose is not one of my strong points. I wish I could articulate a more concise message about a subject that I enjoy so much. I guess I’ll just stick with the numbers. We seem to get along much better.

Best of Luck!

[hurrikane]

Gee Tote.

You tell this guy to play 5% of hit bankroll.

i say I agree with your statments except the 5% of bank(which is way to much for a 20% win rate) and get slammed.

King says The same thing gets accolades.

Must be the water.

As one great wall street speculator said.....
want a friend ...get a dog

[cj]

Anyone betting 5% of his bankroll with only a 20% hit rate is eventually going to have a very small bankroll.

[hurrikane]

bet2win2

don't be disillusioned by what you think you see at the otb.

if you know someone that is not practicing money management then I can assure you they are not winning money. Well, I can certainly assure you they do not know if they are winning or losing. and neither do you.

Would you run a business without keeping books?
Would you decide to open up a shop without knowing the profit/loss
would you buy a property without knowing how much you can get on the rent roll?
would you buy a house without first see how much the mortgage would be so you would know if you can afford it for 30 years?

To all of these people would normally say yes. But you mention money management and gambleing and everyone goes f'ing nuts.

kind of funny really.

if you want to win at this or anything else remember
it's a business ...as soon as you start teating it like one you will start winning...or do something else.

[toetoe]

Tmast,
Once again I didn't make myself clear. YOU were more succinct. I was pleasantly surprised at the crystal clarity of yer post. Green with envy even.

[Tote Master]

Hurricane you are absolutely correct about how we should treat this game! Unfortunately there always seems to be a conflict with how people treat business and pleasure. Bet2win2's, question concerned the “average” player, and we can only assume that most of these type players not only don’t follow any type of Money Management scheme, they certainly don’t keep records! And that of course is critical for any form of MM! Until the average player decides to raise his level of play, the pleasure aspect of just winning here and there will always override any thinking about operating like a business.

Concerning the questions about using 5% of the Bankroll when only hitting at a 20% clip, keep in mind that (in my original example) the value of the return on the bets made have to be at least 4/1 to just break even. Of course we want to do better then that.
So as I mentioned:
For instance, using a (20) race cycle and $400 bankroll over say a (1) month period, our minimum bet would be lets say $20. (Or 5% of our Bankroll) With a Win Frequency of say just 20% (losing 16 out of 20 or $320) the odds on the winning selections have to average at least 4/1 to break even. But we don’t want to breakeven, we want something in return for all our efforts. In that case, we have to do one of two things, either improve our Win Frequency or select entries with higher value and maintain the same WF. This is the basic format for success, because it drives us to either improve our selection process, or forces us to use selections with higher value.
This entire scenario is developed so that we limit ourselves to only those preferred bets with a “known” return that fall within our pre-established and accepted Win Frequency. The goal here is not only to win money and stay ahead, but to eliminate the “Fear Factor”. In my opinion, if we feel confident enough in our WF, losing some bets (even at an 80% rate) will not have detrimental effect on making future selections. I think its all about how well we can discipline ourselves to operate within our established guidlines.

Best of Luck!