Best Three Year Olds

[Que]

Below are my initial rankings of this year's "best" Three Year Olds:

1. ROCKPORT HARBOR (4-4-0-0 $210,300) (1017-1027-1030-1027) (1013) John C. Servis 11/27/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 1-Neck Grd (2|200,000) Remsen S.
2. AFLEET ALEX (6-4-2-0 $680,800) (955-989-1012-1028) (1049) Timothy F. Ritchey 10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m 2-3/4 Grd (1|1,500,000) Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.
3. GALLOPING GROCER (4-3-1-0 $150,400) (1009-1021-1029-1027) (1013) Dominick A. Schettino 11/27/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 2-Neck Grd (2|200,000) Remsen S.
4. BALLETTO (UAE)* (5-3-2-0 $614,000) (1003-1015-1020-1027) (1027) Thomas Albertrani 10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m 2-3 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies S.
5. SUN KING (4-1-0-2 $244,850) (976-992-1013-1027) (1045) Nicholas P. Zito 10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m 3-1 Grd (1|1,500,000) Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.
6. SWEET CATOMINE* (5-4-1-0 $864,600) (998-1010-1012-1004) (976) Julio C. Canani 1/16/2005-SA3 1 1/16m 1-2 1/2 Grd (3|100,000) Santa Ysabel S.
7. WILKO (2-1-0-1 $833,580) (991-1006-1014-1017) (1013) Craig Dollase 12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m 3-1 Grd (1|449,500) Hollywood Futurity
8. CONSOLIDATOR (7-2-1-1 $480,260) (987-996-1013-1025) (1040) D. Wayne Lukas 10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m 4-2 Grd (1|1,500,000) Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.
9. SIS CITY* (7-3-0-2 $282,980) (986-1004-1008-1013) (1011) Richard E. Dutrow 11/27/2004-Aqu7 1 1/8m 1-3 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) Demoiselle S.
10. DANCE AWAY CAPOTE* (5-2-1-0 $124,450) (962-1000-1015-1022) (1025) H. Graham Motion 10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m 5-6 Grd (1|1,000,000) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies S.
11. DECLAN`S MOON (4-4-0-0 $507,300) (991-1011-1014-1019) (1017) Ronald W. Ellis 12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m 1-1 Grd (1|449,500) Hollywood Futurity
12. ROMAN RULER (5-3-1-0 $330,800) (963-984-1004-1022) (1049) Bob Baffert 10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m 5-3 3/4 Grd (1|1,500,000) Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.
13. SPLENDID BLENDED* (4-3-1-0 $327,400) (986-997-1001-1017) (1041) Neil D. Drysdale 12/19/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m 1-2 Grd (1|380,000) Hollywood Starlet S.
14. RUNWAY MODEL* (10-4-2-2 $580,598) (957-1002-1003-999) (980) Bernard S. Flint 11/27/2004-CD9 1 1/16m 1-3 Grd (2|200,000) Golden Rod S.
15. HARLINGTON (2-2-0-0 $47,400) (1016-1017-1005-1011) (1013) Todd A. Pletcher 1/15/2005-GP8 1 1/8m 1-3 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
16. GIACOMO (4-1-1-1 $119,440) (958-991-1010-1017) (1023) John A. Shirreffs 12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m 2-1 Grd (1|449,500) Hollywood Futurity
17. CULINARY* (3-2-0-0 $78,000) (991-1011-1018-1016) (993) Michael Stidham 10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m 7-9 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies S.
18. PLAY WITH FIRE* (5-1-0-2 $107,000) (960-992-1007-1016) (1020) Mark A. Hennig 10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m 8-9 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies S.
19. SOUTHERN AFRICA (2-0-0-0 $32,790) (970-998-1009-1013) (1013) Michael Puhich 12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m 4-3 Grd (1|449,500) Hollywood Futurity
20. PROUD ACCOLADE* (12-4-1-2 $375,155) (989-1010-1012-995) (942) Todd A. Pletcher 12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m 5-13 Grd (1|449,500) Hollywood Futurity
21. SILENT BID (6-1-3-0 $57,460) (1022-1018-1011-1009) (994) D. Wayne Lukas 1/15/2005-SA6 1 1/16m 1-1 Mdn (46,000)
22. PAPI CHULLO (2-0-1-0 $11,700) (1012-1012-1006-1007) (999) Salvador G. Gonzalez 1/15/2005-SA6 1 1/16m 2-1 Mdn (46,000)
23. GREATER GOOD (5-3-0-1 $226,275) (956-981-993-1010) (1038) Robert E. Holthus 11/27/2004-CD11 1 1/16m 1-1 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) Kentucky Jockey Club S.
24. B. B. BEST (7-4-0-1 $360,710) (1014-1020-1009-1005) (985) Edward Plesa 11/27/2004-CD11 1 1/16m 4-2 1/2 Grd (2|200,000) Kentucky Jockey Club S.
25. SENSE OF STYLE* (5-3-0-0 $369,000) (968-1004-1015-1010) (983) Patrick L. Biancone 10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m 9-12 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies S.
26. RUSH BAY (4-1-2-1 $87,755) (968-996-1000-1007) (1012) Thomas M. Amoss 11/27/2004-CD11 1 1/16m 2-1 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) Kentucky Jockey Club S.
27. CRIMINAL MIND (6-1-3-1 $88,950) (976-993-992-1006) (1025) Stanley M. Hough 1/15/2005-GP8 1 1/8m 2-3 Alw (NW1X|33,000)
28. STORM THIEF (3-1-2-0 $42,400) (1018-1006-1004-1004) (998) Richard E. Dutrow 1/9/2005-Aqu7 1 1/16m 2-Neck Alw (NW1X|44,000)
29. LOYALTON (4-1-1-1 $33,588) (995-1006-1006-1006) (993) Jerry Hollendorfer 12/16/2004-GG8 1 1/16m 1-4 Mdn (26,500)
30. SALUTE* (4-1-2-1 $87,326) (978-1002-1007-1006) (995) Claude R. McGaughey 11/27/2004-Aqu7 1 1/8m 2-3 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) Demoiselle S.

[Valuist]

I would have to put Naughty New Yorker in the top 30, if not the top 10. Even though he didn't win the Count Fleet, he definitely was the most visually impressive. Looks like it will be 3 years in a row a NY-bred 3YO wins an open co. stake.

[Que]

Below are my speed figures (last four races, North American Races only) for the my top 30 three year old prospects. Also, the rankings only considered races within the last 90 days at 1 1/16 mile or greater.

1. ROCKPORT HARBOR (4-4-0-0 $210,300)
11/27/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m (1017-1027-1030-1027) (1013) 1008 1-Neck Grd (2|200,000) quickly in front, set pace inside, dug in resolutely on rail
11/2/2004-Aqu8 1m (1017-1019-1021-1012) (979) 1005 1-6 1/4 Grd (3|100,000) speed in hand, soon clear, set pace, drew away in hand, handily
10/12/2004-Pha9 6.5f (999-993-na-1006) (1016) 996 1-7 1/2 Alw (NW1X|21,000) off slowest, sent up inside, drew off, ridden out
9/12/2004-Pha1 5.5f (983-995-na-998) (998) 982 1-8 3/4 Mdn (21,200) set pace, drew off smartly, handy winner

2. AFLEET ALEX (6-4-2-0 $680,800)
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (955-989-1012-1028) (1049) 1018 2-3/4 Grd (1|1,500,000) bobbld start,bmpd,settld 4w,bid 4-5w 2nd turn,lead 1/4,outfinishd
10/9/2004-Bel7 1 1/16m (996-1005-1016-1028) (1048) 1015 2-1/2 Grd (1|500,000) in hand early, between rivals, swung wide into stretch, gamely
8/21/2004-Sar9 7f (1005-1016-na-1011) (997) 1012 1-Neck Grd (1|250,000) bumped start, hustled, inside turn, wide move, ducked out, got up
7/29/2004-Sar8 6f (977-1001-na-1023) (1058) 1009 1-5 1/4 Grd (2|150,000) unhurried outside, 5 wide move turn, drew away when roused

3. GALLOPING GROCER (4-3-1-0 $150,400)
11/27/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m (1009-1021-1029-1027) (1013) 1009 2-Neck Grd (2|200,000) speed outside in hand, outside move, dug in gamely stretch
10/23/2004-Bel4 1m (1000-1005-1015-1012) (1000) 996 1-7 1/2 Stk (100,000) in charge from start, drew away on own courage, handily
9/17/2004-Bel3 6.5f (964-965-na-990) (1021) 983 1-12 1/2 Alw (NW1X|43,000) stumbled start, speed outside, drew clear in hand, ridden out
8/22/2004-Sar3 5f (990-978-na-1006) (1008) 1000 1-11 3/4 Mdn (41,000) speed outside, drew away in hand, widened under hand ride

4. BALLETTO (UAE) (5-3-2-0 $614,000)
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (1003-1015-1020-1027) (1027) 1008 2-3 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000) moved out 5-1/2,forwardly placed,bid 1/4,in tight 1/8,no match
10/9/2004-Bel6 1 1/16m (1011-1014-1021-1018) (1003) 1000 1-3/4 Grd (1|500,000) in hand inside, inside move turn, dug in gamely inside, driving
9/19/2004-Bel8 1m (952-972-991-1002) (1027) 1001 2-1 Grd (1|300,000) close up inside, came wide for drive, angled in, game finish
8/2/2004-Sar3 6.5f (1010-1003-na-991) (969) 992 1-3/4 Alw (NW1X|47,000) bothered start, in hand early, inside move, gamely on rail

5. SUN KING (4-1-0-2 $244,850)
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (976-992-1013-1027) (1045) 1020 3-1 Grd (1|1,500,000) rated inside,rail bid 3/8,dueled,bmpd 3/16,gamely,outfinished
10/9/2004-Bel7 1 1/16m (1006-1009-1017-1026) (1036) 1016 3-1 3/4 Grd (1|500,000) speed 3 wide, contested pace, weakened inside final furlong
9/17/2004-Bel6 1m (959-990-995-1008) (1040) 1000 1-1/2 Mdn (46,000) bobbled start, 4 wide move turn, dug in determinedly, prevailed
8/28/2004-Sar3 6.5f (871-957-na-988) (1029) 985 4-9 Mdn (45,000) awkward start, outrun early, wandered through stretch

6. SWEET CATOMINE (5-4-1-0 $864,600)
1/16/2005-SA3 1 1/16m (998-1010-1012-1004) (976) 988 1-2 1/2 Grd (3|100,000) stalked pace, off rail,bid btwn,led 3-1/2,inched clear,gamely
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (978-1006-1016-1033) (1061) 1017 1-3 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000) rated between,blckd 2nd turn,chckd 5/16,drifted in 1/8,drew clear
10/2/2004-SA9 1 1/16m (987-985-1002-1016) (1039) 1002 1-4 Grd (2|200,000) 3 wide 7/8,chased,outside move,surged 4wd,led 1/4,clear
8/28/2004-Dmr8 7f (969-985-na-996) (1001) 986 1-3/4 Grd (1|250,000) hopped break,chased wide, 5wide turn, into lane, collared foe

7. WILKO (2-1-0-1 $833,580)
12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (991-1006-1014-1017) (1013) 1010 3-1 Grd (1|449,500) speed, stalked inside,bid rail 2nd turn,came out lane,lost place
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (984-992-1011-1029) (1057) 1020 1-3/4 Grd (1|1,500,000) settled 3wide,vied3-4w 2nd turn,dropped out 1/4,came again,gamely

8. CONSOLIDATOR (7-2-1-1 $480,260)
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (987-996-1013-1025) (1040) 1018 4-2 Grd (1|1,500,000) bumped start,tracked outside,bid 3/8,dueled,bumped 3/16,gave way
10/9/2004-Kee7 1 1/16m (1001-997-1002-1013) (1027) 1000 1-2 Stk (500,000) tracked pace, 4w,took over,energetic handling,driving
8/21/2004-Sar9 7f (1003-1008-na-982) (943) 999 4-13 Grd (1|250,000) hit gate start, bumped after start, 4 wide turn, inside stretch
7/29/2004-Sar8 6f (993-993-na-1009) (1031) 1004 3-5 1/2 Grd (2|150,000) speed outside, chased 3 wide, good finish outside

9. SIS CITY (7-3-0-2 $282,980)
11/27/2004-Aqu7 1 1/8m (986-1004-1008-1013) (1011) 997 1-3 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) hustled clear, set pace, responded when roused, kept to drive
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (1018-1022-1021-1023) (1011) 1008 4-5 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000) broke in,carried 4w 1st turn,pressed,lead 7/16,vied past 1/8,wknd
10/9/2004-Bel6 1 1/16m (1029-1025-1026-1015) (983) 1000 3-1 1/2 Grd (1|500,000) hustled to front, set pace inside, drifted out stretch, gamely
9/12/2004-Mth8 1m 70yds (982-997-999-1006) (1017) 992 1-16 Stk (60,000) quickly away,well rated off rail,drew off into lane,easily

10. DANCE AWAY CAPOTE (5-2-1-0 $124,450)
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (962-1000-1015-1022) (1025) 1006 5-6 Grd (1|1,000,000) off step slow, jostled 7/8, blocked 5/16, failed to rally
10/8/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m (948-977-1002-1009) (1013) 1004 4-3/4 Grd (2|400,000) broke to outside,moved to inside,5w bid,empty late
9/25/2004-Del7 1m (949-970-996-994) (983) 988 1-12 Stk (50,000) unhurried, run far turn, lead entering stretch, handy fashion
9/4/2004-Mth10 6f (986-997-na-979) (936) 973 2-3 1/4 Stk (100,000) rated just off early pace off rail,bid into turn,rail 1/8,evenly

[Que]

11. DECLAN`S MOON (4-4-0-0 $507,300)
12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (991-1011-1014-1019) (1017) 1010 1-1 Grd (1|449,500) pulled,stalked,bid inside,btwn 5/16,inched away lane,held game
11/20/2004-Hol8 7f (991-1009-na-1010) (1002) 1006 1-2 Grd (3|100,000) stalked pace, 2 wide, 3 wide into lane,led,clear,ridden out
9/8/2004-Dmr8 7f (981-995-na-1028) (1058) 1013 1-Neck Grd (2|250,000) drifted out early,stalked off rail,bid btwn,brushed late,gamely
7/31/2004-Dmr3 5.5f (991-997-na-1004) (1005) 1011 1-5 Mdn (49,000) good early speed, dueled, inside, drew clear, ridden out

12. ROMAN RULER (5-3-1-0 $330,800)
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (963-984-1004-1022) (1049) 1013 5-3 3/4 Grd (1|1,500,000) bmpd after start,steadied 7-1/2,hard held,angled out 1/8,empty
10/3/2004-SA7 1 1/16m (1005-1022-1018-1005) (966) 996 1-4 1/2 Grd (2|200,000) pulled early,stalked off rail,bid 2wd,led,clear 1/4,drifted in
9/8/2004-Dmr8 7f (973-989-na-1027) (1065) 1016 2-Neck Grd (2|250,000) off bit slow,tight,stdied early,chased,3wd bid,led,brushed,missed
8/15/2004-Dmr2 6.5f (956-988-na-1024) (1069) 1011 1-7 Grd (2|150,000) off slow,squeezed,drifted out,steadied 5/16,rallied,ridden out

13. SPLENDID BLENDED (4-3-1-0 $327,400)
12/19/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (986-997-1001-1017) (1041) 1002 1-2 Grd (1|380,000) pulled 3 wide early, dueled, 2 wide, led into lane,cleared
11/14/2004-Hol2 1 1/16m (1027-1009-1002-996) (976) 994 1-3 1/4 Alw (NW1X|39,000) pressed pace, 2 wide, led backstretch, clear, in hand
10/2/2004-SA9 1 1/16m (1004-1005-1005-1009) (1005) 999 2-4 Grd (2|200,000) rank, drifted wide 7/8,4wd move,dueled 3wd,no match,2nd best
9/6/2004-Dmr4 1m (979-969-983-1005) (1062) 986 1-5 Mdn (51,000) speed, angled in, set pressured pace, drifted out,ridden out

14. RUNWAY MODEL (10-4-2-2 $580,598)
11/27/2004-CD9 1 1/16m (957-1002-1003-999) (980) 997 1-3 Grd (2|200,000) unhurried inside,move 4w far turn,inch to lead,steady drive,clear
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (984-1009-1017-1024) (1025) 1007 3-5 Grd (1|1,000,000) settled,rail rally 3/16,blocked 1/8 and 1/16,lost chance
10/8/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m (960-995-1003-1010) (1016) 1003 1-Head Grd (2|400,000) unhurried early, rail far turn,angled 4-5w,all out,in time
9/19/2004-AP9 1m (950-974-987-1007) (1051) 994 2-2 Grd (3|100,000) close up, just outside, rallied, second best

15. HARLINGTON (2-2-0-0 $47,400)
1/15/2005-GP8 1 1/8m (1016-1017-1005-1011) (1013) 995 1-3 Alw (NW1X|33,000) stalked pace, 3 wide, took over far turn, drew clear, driving
11/28/2004-Aqu3 1m (991-1003-1000-992) (967) 992 1-Neck Mdn (46,000) off slowly, in hand early, 4 wide move, angled in, along in time

16. GIACOMO (4-1-1-1 $119,440)
12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (958-991-1010-1017) (1023) 1014 2-1 Grd (1|449,500) off bit slow, settled, 2 wide, came out lane,rallied gamely
11/14/2004-Hol4 1 1/16m (970-998-1002-1003) (997) 997 3-2 Alw (NW1X|39,000) 3 wide 7-1/2, chased, off rail, 2 wide, lacked late response
10/22/2004-SA4 1 1/16m (983-998-1003-1003) (992) 996 1-10 Mdn (41,000) chased, 2 wide, bid 3 wide into lane,led, drew off, handily
7/15/2004-Hol4 5.5f (934-970-na-981) (1001) 962 5-10 3/4 Mdn (43,000) off bit slow, climbing,bit off rail,inside turn,imp position

17. CULINARY (3-2-0-0 $78,000)
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (991-1011-1018-1016) (993) 1003 7-9 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) 3wide 1st turn,just off pace,3-4w 2nd turn,bid 1/4,gave way
9/19/2004-AP9 1m (957-976-990-1011) (1059) 1002 1-2 Grd (3|100,000) middle of pack, 3 wide, rallied, drew off, driving
8/12/2004-AP6 1m (976-981-969-969) (959) 966 1-11 Mdn (30,000) middle of pack, 4 wide, rallied, drew off, handily

18. PLAY WITH FIRE (5-1-0-2 $107,000)
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (960-992-1007-1016) (1020) 1003 8-9 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) 3w 1st turn,towards rear,inside 2nd turn,3w into lane,no threat
10/9/2004-Bel6 1 1/16m (965-994-1017-1011) (989) 997 4-3 3/4 Grd (1|500,000) outrun early, came wide for drive, good finish outside
9/19/2004-Bel8 1m (952-972-993-1001) (1015) 1000 3-1 3/4 Grd (1|300,000) close up between rivals, wide move, tried winner, weakened
8/20/2004-Sar8 7f (962-971-na-991) (1008) 995 3-7 1/2 Grd (2|250,000) bobbled start, outrun early, came wide into stretch, rallied

19. SOUTHERN AFRICA (2-0-0-0 $32,790)
12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (970-998-1009-1013) (1013) 1007 4-3 Grd (1|449,500) saved ground, stalked,waited bit 1/4,2wd into lane,outkicked
11/20/2004-Hol8 7f (969-991-na-1001) (1006) 1000 4-4 Grd (3|100,000) off bit slow,settled, inside, 2 wide turn,btwn into lane,no rally

20. PROUD ACCOLADE (12-4-1-2 $375,155)
12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (989-1010-1012-995) (942) 988 5-13 Grd (1|449,500) stalked pace, outside, 3 wide, bid 3wd 5/16,angled in,wkened
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (976-989-1003-1020) (1044) 1012 6-5 Grd (1|1,500,000) leaned out start,settld between,roused 2nd turn,failed to respond
10/9/2004-Bel7 1 1/16m (998-1007-1017-1029) (1048) 1021 1-1/2 Grd (1|500,000) in hand outside, 4 wide move, responded when roused, driving
9/1/2004-Sar5 6.5f (996-992-na-1011) (1030) 998 1-5 1/2 Alw (NW1X|47,000) close up outside, 3 wide move, drew clear when roused, driving

[Que]

21. SILENT BID (6-1-3-0 $57,460)
1/15/2005-SA6 1 1/16m (1022-1018-1011-1009) (994) 990 1-1 Mdn (46,000) pulled btwn,bid inside, dueled, inched away 1/4,drifted out,held
12/26/2004-SA9 1 1/16m (1030-1038-1020-990) (915) 982 5-8 3/4 Mdn (46,000) speed, 2 wide, cleared, angled in, fought back 1/8, weakened
10/31/2004-CD4 1 1/16m (1014-992-990-993) (988) 986 2-6 3/4 Mdn (48,200) gained clear lead early, 3w,pace to lane,no match
10/15/2004-Kee107f (1012-1003-na-997) (979) 976 2-3 3/4 Mdn (50,000) drift in start,sent to fore inside,battled to lane,no match

22. PAPI CHULLO (2-0-1-0 $11,700)
1/15/2005-SA6 1 1/16m (1012-1012-1006-1007) (999) 990 2-1 Mdn (46,000) bit tight 7/8,chased,bit off rail,came out,3wd into lane,willing
12/18/2004-GG8 1m (938-961-980-988) (1003) 980 4-6 1/2 Stk (50,000) unhurried early, best stride too late

23. GREATER GOOD (5-3-0-1 $226,275)
11/27/2004-CD11 1 1/16m (956-981-993-1010) (1038) 996 1-1 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) unhurried early, near inside,4w far turn,rail in drive,gamely
11/6/2004-CD10 1m (961-979-990-998) (1013) 991 3-7 Grd (3|100,000) bumped start, outrun 4-5w, steadied,swung out from spill 1/4p
9/18/2004-TP10 1 1/16m (877-957-999-1006) (1013) 991 1-2 3/4 Grd (3|100,000) far back inside, 3 wide run 2nd turn, closed fast, going away
8/7/2004-ElP7 7f (971-971-na-999) (1027) 980 1-1 1/2 Mdn (23,700) rated in behind foes early,moved 4-5w lane,driving,clear

24. B. B. BEST (7-4-0-1 $360,710)
11/27/2004-CD11 1 1/16m (1014-1020-1009-1005) (985) 997 4-2 1/2 Grd (2|200,000) came out bump start, forced pace,led,clear,weakened
10/23/2004-Crc121 1/16m (1026-1007-1004-997) (975) 991 1-1 3/4 Stk (R|400,000) set pace, inside, drew clear, drifted out stretch, held sway
9/6/2004-Crc11 7f (985-995-na-981) (954) 983 3-8 1/2 Stk (R|125,000) chased 3 wide, tired
8/14/2004-Crc11 6f (1011-1004-na-999) (978) 987 1-3 Stk (R|75,000) speed 3 wide, drew clear, driving

25. SENSE OF STYLE (5-3-0-0 $369,000)
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (968-1004-1015-1010) (983) 1000 9-12 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) hopped start,jostled 7/8,between foes,4w 2nd turn,empty
10/8/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m (1003-1003-1006-1006) (996) 1002 5-2 Grd (2|400,000) well placed behind foes,lack room 1/8p
9/19/2004-Bel8 1m (930-969-998-1004) (1013) 1001 1-1 Grd (1|300,000) unprepared for start, outrun early, 4 wide move, gamely, clear
8/20/2004-Sar8 7f (986-997-na-1007) (1010) 1006 1-6 3/4 Grd (2|250,000) in hand outside, 3 wide move, drew away when asked, kept busy

26. RUSH BAY (4-1-2-1 $87,755)
11/27/2004-CD11 1 1/16m (968-996-1000-1007) (1012) 999 2-1 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) settled inside,lack room 5/16s, 4w in lane, good try
10/31/2004-CD4 1 1/16m (971-979-987-1005) (1036) 993 1-6 3/4 Mdn (48,200) tracked pace, 3-4w,took over 1/4p,drew off,driving
10/13/2004-Kee2 1 1/16m (945-966-976-988) (1006) 975 2-1 3/4 Mdn (50,000) lean in on foe near 1st turn, moved 4-5w,loomed,2ndbest
9/18/2004-AP5 6f (923-953-na-978) (1014) 974 3-8 3/4 Mdn (27,000) no speed, rallied, inside, belatedly

27. CRIMINAL MIND (6-1-3-1 $88,950)
1/15/2005-GP8 1 1/8m (976-993-992-1006) (1025) 997 2-3 Alw (NW1X|33,000) unhurried early, swung out, rallied, 2nd best
10/31/2004-WO5 1 1/16m (930-954-975-984) (999) 970 1-3 1/4 Mdn (62,700) stalked,closed late turn,bid top stretch,vied,came in,drew clear
10/11/2004-WO8 1 1/16m (963-978-979-986) (996) 981 3-1 3/4 Grd (2|175,000) always in touch,roused midturn,finished determinedly
9/19/2004-WO7 1m 70yds (958-973-967-974) (985) 969 2-2 1/4 Mdn (62,700) well back early inside,closed 3deep turn,angled out,rallied

28. STORM THIEF (3-1-2-0 $42,400)
1/9/2005-Aqu7 1 1/16m (1018-1006-1004-1004) (1010) 995 2-Neck Alw (NW1X|44,000) speed inside, set pace, dug in gamely on rail stretch
12/15/2004-Aqu1 1m 70yds (1028-998-989-1001) (1033) 978 1-1 1/4 Mdn (42,000) stalked 3 wide, bid 1/4 pole, led 1/16 pole, driving
11/12/2004-Aqu9 1m (1016-1003-987-981) (954) 985 2-10 1/4 Mdn (42,000) bumped start, contested pace, no match for winner, second best

29. LOYALTON (4-1-1-1 $33,588)
12/16/2004-GG8 1 1/16m (995-1006-1006-1006) (993) 980 1-4 Mdn (26,500) set pace inside, responded stretch, drew off, ridden out
11/28/2004-GG3 6f (989-988-na-990) (981) 981 2-1 1/2 Mdn (26,500) pressed winner outside, weakened
10/16/2004-BM7 6f (992-992-na-976) (939) 970 3-3 Mdn (26,500) dueled 2w, led turn, weakened stretch
9/5/2004-BM6 6f (985-991-na-977) (940) 970 4-8 Mdn (26,500) stalked pace 3w, lugged in 1/8p, weakened

30. SALUTE (4-1-2-1 $87,326)
11/27/2004-Aqu7 1 1/8m (978-1002-1007-1006) (995) 996 2-3 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) speed outside, prompted pace, dug in for place
11/2/2004-Aqu6 1m (991-1000-1018-1009) (976) 989 3-4 1/4 Grd (3|100,000) speed outside, pressed pace, weakened stretch
10/8/2004-Bel4 1m (989-1005-1003-1001) (989) 983 1-8 1/4 Mdn (46,000) stumbled start, quickly in front, set pace, drew away, kept busy
9/12/2004-Bel5 6.5f (968-977-na-987) (993) 983 2-2 1/4 Mdn (45,000) unhurried outside, 4 wide move turn, game finish outside

[Que]

Valuist,
Naughty New Yorker would have made the list but his last race did not quailfy since it wasn't at a 1 1/16 mile or greater. I know that sounds rather arbritary, but its meant to eliminate the one mile routes. I've found one mile routes to be more like sprints, and those pace numbers don't portend well for the classic distances. However one thing that may hurt Naughty New Yorker's rankings will be his slow first quarter times--I'd like to see a faster number up front to validate the later figures. Anyway, if you are interested, below are my pace figures for him.

Naughty New Yorker (7-2-3-1 $126,830)
1/15/2005-Aqu8 1m 70yds (939-991-1000-1007) (1032) 1001 2-1 Stk (75,000) unhurried early, 4 wide move second turn, game finish outside
12/12/2004-Aqu8 1 1/16m (949-996-1006-1013) (1034) 1000 1-8 1/2 Stk (75,000) off pace, 3 wide, circled field 4 wide, drew off, mild urging
11/12/2004-Aqu9 1m (958-985-988-1001) (1029) 1003 1-10 1/4 Mdn (42,000) outrun early, 5 wide move turn, drew away under drive
10/23/2004-Bel4 1m (979-996-1004-998) (979) 994 2-7 1/2 Stk (100,000) rated along between rivals, rallied for place

[Valuist]

That was a 2 turn race, and I know its only the inner dirt but the fact that the early pace wasn't overly fast made his closing (4 wide) move all the more impressive. Not many races have been won at the Inner Dirt meet with a move like that.

[OTM Al]

I agree with you Valuist. He almost pulled off a move that just can't be done on that inner track. I think he needs to be a little more on the pace if he's going to be competitive on the top end, but he's sure going to be a fun one to watch

[Bobby]

Yea, I think the So Cal contingent is a little overrated, at least at this point. I give the edge to Afleet Alex right now. But you know how things change with form, injuries, and so forth.

[Valuist]

I may be in the minority but I thought Afleet Alex was the best horse in both races he ran 2nd (Champagne and BC Juvenile). Velazquez had him locked in in the Champagne and got first run on the leader, then at LS, he got to the front a bit too soon. We'll see if he wants 9 furlongs first.

[Bobby]

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=26367

(last 1/3 of article)


The gist of article is that Afleet Alex fits the profile--"to perfection"--of a KY Derby winner.

[OTM Al]

I'll join the minority. I think Alex should be champion 2yo. I also am not thrilled with what I've seen from SoCal either. Roman Ruler looks like one of those early maturers who won't be around much at 3 and Fusiachi Samurai hasn't really done anything more than win a maiden, so have no comment on him. Declan's Moon looks nice and the breeding is superior (Something Royal on both sides...doesn't get much better than that for the female part of the pedigree) but still need to see some more from him. The one that kind of interested me out there was Bushwacker, but when he went up against DM the saddle slipped, so not sure still how to judge him. I'm liking the east coast horses again this year. Oaklawn may not have Smarty this time around, but Rockport Harbor and Afleet Alex going head to head looks to highlite what may be the best preps.

[DerbyTrail]

I'll join the minority. I think Alex should be champion 2yo. I also am not thrilled with what I've seen from SoCal either. Roman Ruler looks like one of those early maturers who won't be around much at 3 and Fusiachi Samurai hasn't really done anything more than win a maiden, so have no comment on him. Declan's Moon looks nice and the breeding is superior (Something Royal on both sides...doesn't get much better than that for the female part of the pedigree) but still need to see some more from him. The one that kind of interested me out there was Bushwacker, but when he went up against DM the saddle slipped, so not sure still how to judge him. I'm liking the east coast horses again this year. Oaklawn may not have Smarty this time around, but Rockport Harbor and Afleet Alex going head to head looks to highlite what may be the best preps.

Here's another vote for Alex.. I think he has the best resume, and if Rose had ridden him better he'd have finished the year undefeated. And here's another vote of doubt on the credibility of the West Coasters. The best ones may not have even been discussed yet... Only in Reno and Uncle Denny especially.

[Tom]

Seeing Que's annual list of 3 Yo ratins is a more sure sign of spring than seeing a robin!
Once again, thanks Que, and good to see you back.

[toetoe]

Bless you, Valuist, for defending my Derby horse, NNY. I gotta consider Scrappy T now, after a game win. Two quibbles:
1) Sun King @ 5????? Name should be Sunk(Ing) or Sinking (fast).
2) I refuse to believe anyone can get a true paceline from an oddball distance. That's okay, I want NNY to stay under the radar.

[Suff]

Below are my initial rankings of this year's "best" Three Year Olds:
[]

Hi Que

Thanks for your figures... I'm not a figure guy.. But I will will share one concerning observation. I thought Rockport Harbor and GG were dominate two year olds. And they maybe. But What concerns me is that the other horses that trailed them by 8 , 10 and 12 lenghts respectively.. have all come back to do nothing in moderate allowance company. Typically if I see a Colt get within 8 lengths of a GRADE 2, TC Nominated winner... and he runs back in NW1 Open... I like him to run big. But What I have seen from the 3rd and 4th finishers out of the Remsen has me wondering exactly how big a race it was.

Again, I'm not a #'s guy. I make notes on Key races, I follow fields out of KEY RACES... And I have a smidgeon of doubt about how Real Rockport Harbor and Galloping Grocer were that day...

Just a Thought.. Thanks again for your numbers

[cj]

Here is the thing with the Remsen suff...those 3rd and 4th place finishers were never in the race at any point. Those two up front were dueling, breathing down each other's necks in quick time, from start to finish. If those guys who were lagging well behind this battle couldn't get closer than 8 lengths, they aren't much. When will they ever get a better set up than a two horse, knockdown, drag out brawl? Now, if one of those horses was up close and faded to a respectable 4th, maybe, but they were merely observers from afar.

[Bobby]

5F

Rockport Harbor 1:02.00 B 7

1st work since remsen. hoof still hurting?

Also, from Oaklawn's Notes & Quotes:

"And, speaking of Philadelphia Park, trainer John Servis will pack his family into his car Wednesday at his home near Philly Park, and make the 20-hour trip to Hot Springs...in plenty of time to supervise Rockport Harbor's first Oaklawn breeze.

Rockport Harbor of course will be trying to duplicate last season's Spa stakes sweep by the Servis-trained Smarty Jones."

Well, if he left today, he was a little late

[formula_2002]

Hopefully, I'll have one more for you after this weekend's racing.

[andicap]

Que,
What is the corrolation between horses having strong final fraction figures (and competitive final times) and improving as the spring wears on?





Below are my speed figures (last four races, North American Races only) for the my top 30 three year old prospects. Also, the rankings only considered races within the last 90 days at 1 1/16 mile or greater.

1. ROCKPORT HARBOR (4-4-0-0 $210,300)
11/27/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m (1017-1027-1030-1027) (1013) 1008 1-Neck Grd (2|200,000) quickly in front, set pace inside, dug in resolutely on rail
11/2/2004-Aqu8 1m (1017-1019-1021-1012) (979) 1005 1-6 1/4 Grd (3|100,000) speed in hand, soon clear, set pace, drew away in hand, handily
10/12/2004-Pha9 6.5f (999-993-na-1006) (1016) 996 1-7 1/2 Alw (NW1X|21,000) off slowest, sent up inside, drew off, ridden out
9/12/2004-Pha1 5.5f (983-995-na-998) (998) 982 1-8 3/4 Mdn (21,200) set pace, drew off smartly, handy winner

2. AFLEET ALEX (6-4-2-0 $680,800)
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (955-989-1012-1028) (1049) 1018 2-3/4 Grd (1|1,500,000) bobbld start,bmpd,settld 4w,bid 4-5w 2nd turn,lead 1/4,outfinishd
10/9/2004-Bel7 1 1/16m (996-1005-1016-1028) (1048) 1015 2-1/2 Grd (1|500,000) in hand early, between rivals, swung wide into stretch, gamely
8/21/2004-Sar9 7f (1005-1016-na-1011) (997) 1012 1-Neck Grd (1|250,000) bumped start, hustled, inside turn, wide move, ducked out, got up
7/29/2004-Sar8 6f (977-1001-na-1023) (1058) 1009 1-5 1/4 Grd (2|150,000) unhurried outside, 5 wide move turn, drew away when roused

3. GALLOPING GROCER (4-3-1-0 $150,400)
11/27/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m (1009-1021-1029-1027) (1013) 1009 2-Neck Grd (2|200,000) speed outside in hand, outside move, dug in gamely stretch
10/23/2004-Bel4 1m (1000-1005-1015-1012) (1000) 996 1-7 1/2 Stk (100,000) in charge from start, drew away on own courage, handily
9/17/2004-Bel3 6.5f (964-965-na-990) (1021) 983 1-12 1/2 Alw (NW1X|43,000) stumbled start, speed outside, drew clear in hand, ridden out
8/22/2004-Sar3 5f (990-978-na-1006) (1008) 1000 1-11 3/4 Mdn (41,000) speed outside, drew away in hand, widened under hand ride

4. BALLETTO (UAE) (5-3-2-0 $614,000)
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (1003-1015-1020-1027) (1027) 1008 2-3 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000) moved out 5-1/2,forwardly placed,bid 1/4,in tight 1/8,no match
10/9/2004-Bel6 1 1/16m (1011-1014-1021-1018) (1003) 1000 1-3/4 Grd (1|500,000) in hand inside, inside move turn, dug in gamely inside, driving
9/19/2004-Bel8 1m (952-972-991-1002) (1027) 1001 2-1 Grd (1|300,000) close up inside, came wide for drive, angled in, game finish
8/2/2004-Sar3 6.5f (1010-1003-na-991) (969) 992 1-3/4 Alw (NW1X|47,000) bothered start, in hand early, inside move, gamely on rail

5. SUN KING (4-1-0-2 $244,850)
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (976-992-1013-1027) (1045) 1020 3-1 Grd (1|1,500,000) rated inside,rail bid 3/8,dueled,bmpd 3/16,gamely,outfinished
10/9/2004-Bel7 1 1/16m (1006-1009-1017-1026) (1036) 1016 3-1 3/4 Grd (1|500,000) speed 3 wide, contested pace, weakened inside final furlong
9/17/2004-Bel6 1m (959-990-995-1008) (1040) 1000 1-1/2 Mdn (46,000) bobbled start, 4 wide move turn, dug in determinedly, prevailed
8/28/2004-Sar3 6.5f (871-957-na-988) (1029) 985 4-9 Mdn (45,000) awkward start, outrun early, wandered through stretch

6. SWEET CATOMINE (5-4-1-0 $864,600)
1/16/2005-SA3 1 1/16m (998-1010-1012-1004) (976) 988 1-2 1/2 Grd (3|100,000) stalked pace, off rail,bid btwn,led 3-1/2,inched clear,gamely
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (978-1006-1016-1033) (1061) 1017 1-3 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000) rated between,blckd 2nd turn,chckd 5/16,drifted in 1/8,drew clear
10/2/2004-SA9 1 1/16m (987-985-1002-1016) (1039) 1002 1-4 Grd (2|200,000) 3 wide 7/8,chased,outside move,surged 4wd,led 1/4,clear
8/28/2004-Dmr8 7f (969-985-na-996) (1001) 986 1-3/4 Grd (1|250,000) hopped break,chased wide, 5wide turn, into lane, collared foe

7. WILKO (2-1-0-1 $833,580)
12/18/2004-Hol8 1 1/16m (991-1006-1014-1017) (1013) 1010 3-1 Grd (1|449,500) speed, stalked inside,bid rail 2nd turn,came out lane,lost place
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (984-992-1011-1029) (1057) 1020 1-3/4 Grd (1|1,500,000) settled 3wide,vied3-4w 2nd turn,dropped out 1/4,came again,gamely

8. CONSOLIDATOR (7-2-1-1 $480,260)
10/30/2004-LS7 1 1/16m (987-996-1013-1025) (1040) 1018 4-2 Grd (1|1,500,000) bumped start,tracked outside,bid 3/8,dueled,bumped 3/16,gave way
10/9/2004-Kee7 1 1/16m (1001-997-1002-1013) (1027) 1000 1-2 Stk (500,000) tracked pace, 4w,took over,energetic handling,driving
8/21/2004-Sar9 7f (1003-1008-na-982) (943) 999 4-13 Grd (1|250,000) hit gate start, bumped after start, 4 wide turn, inside stretch
7/29/2004-Sar8 6f (993-993-na-1009) (1031) 1004 3-5 1/2 Grd (2|150,000) speed outside, chased 3 wide, good finish outside

9. SIS CITY (7-3-0-2 $282,980)
11/27/2004-Aqu7 1 1/8m (986-1004-1008-1013) (1011) 997 1-3 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) hustled clear, set pace, responded when roused, kept to drive
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (1018-1022-1021-1023) (1011) 1008 4-5 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000) broke in,carried 4w 1st turn,pressed,lead 7/16,vied past 1/8,wknd
10/9/2004-Bel6 1 1/16m (1029-1025-1026-1015) (983) 1000 3-1 1/2 Grd (1|500,000) hustled to front, set pace inside, drifted out stretch, gamely
9/12/2004-Mth8 1m 70yds (982-997-999-1006) (1017) 992 1-16 Stk (60,000) quickly away,well rated off rail,drew off into lane,easily

10. DANCE AWAY CAPOTE (5-2-1-0 $124,450)
10/30/2004-LS3 1 1/16m (962-1000-1015-1022) (1025) 1006 5-6 Grd (1|1,000,000) off step slow, jostled 7/8, blocked 5/16, failed to rally
10/8/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m (948-977-1002-1009) (1013) 1004 4-3/4 Grd (2|400,000) broke to outside,moved to inside,5w bid,empty late
9/25/2004-Del7 1m (949-970-996-994) (983) 988 1-12 Stk (50,000) unhurried, run far turn, lead entering stretch, handy fashion
9/4/2004-Mth10 6f (986-997-na-979) (936) 973 2-3 1/4 Stk (100,000) rated just off early pace off rail,bid into turn,rail 1/8,evenly

[Que]

andicap,

Good question, but I don't really have an answer for you. I will assume that the correlation is positive, since that's what I base my rankings on... although a horse also needs a good 1/2m figure (my second pace number) in order to earn a strong rating. Basically, I've found that the cream usually rises to the top as the season progresses--this is especially true with young 3YOs. Therefore, the only way a horse can keep a high ranking is to continually improve--if the horse doesn't improve then others will surely take its place. This is even more the case with my rankings since I don't evaluate any races less than 1 1/6 miles, so as more and more horses start running the longer distances the competition gets tougher and tougher. Its also interesting to see how the fillies rank against the colts early in the season, and then watch them drop (albeit one or two) as the season progesses.

Also, thanks for everyone's positive comments, and I'll try to keep the rankings updated as the season progresses.

Que.

[Jinxed]

I love Afleet Alex, and sooooooo glad they took Jeremy Rose off him. Now he should really strut his stuff. :)

[Bubbles]

Count another in on the Afleet Alex fan club. He has a big closing move, and, with the right rider on him, will use it to win big races. I also like Galloping Grocer, I was there when he broke his maiden at Saratoga and almost broke the track record. Insane performance, and I wouldn't be surprised to see big things from him this year.

[JPinMaryland]

if Johnny Vee is on ALex??

[JPinMaryland]

Okay I see Johnn V is still riding him..