The live underlay

[Valuist]

I don't think I've ever seen a book mention this. We'd all love to believe that all winners are overlays, but it just isn't the case. What about the horse that's getting a suspicious amount of action? I'm not talking about the overbet favorite who shouldn't be below 2-1 but gets hit down to 4-5. I'm talking about a horse like Mr. Traventino, in the 1st a GP today. He was somewhere around 10-1 or 12-1 in the morning line, and justifyably so, then ended up winning by a nose and paid just under $9. Early betting action seems to be a very powerful angle at the smaller Kentucky tracks; these horses win far more than their share of races.

[Pace Cap'n]

Purely anecdotal, but at Aqueduct it seems that 2/1 or 5/2 morning line favorite who opens on the board at 6/5 and stays there seldom loses.

[Bill Cullen]

We'd all love to believe that all winners are overlays, but it just isn't the case.

Wow! Now we've seen the light!

Thanks for the revelation.

Bill C

[Valuist]

Shouldn't you be testing one of your silly systems? :rolleyes:

[toetoe]

Leave Bill alone. He wrote that masterpiece "Playing With Myself." No, sorry, that was S. Crist. No, wait, it was ME.
Just want to say that "early money" just doesn't exist anymore. I always watched for it, but now 50% or more of the handle comes in the last 2 or 3 minutes. Anybody know of a track that this DOESN"T happen?

[Valuist]

It still does happen. I think its important to distinguish the difference between public money and inside money. If a legit 10-1 on the m/l is hanging at 4-1/9-2, the next key is the current form. If its not good, there's a strong chance it is the connections' money. If the form isn't bad at all, its probably public money and the horse is overbet. I also have noticed a strong correlation between strong early money and physicality. When the early money horses make a strong appearance in the post parade, its a very strong angle.

I mentioned the horse (mr. Traventino) in the opener from GP yesterday as one that fit the likely "inside money" scenario. Mogadar, who figured to be a strong contender and probably worthy of 9-5 vs a very tough allowance race later in the card yesterday was likely overbet by the public at 4-5. Mogadar did run well to be narrowly beaten but he definitely was an underlay at the price.