FortuneHunter
01-22-2005, 09:21 AM
Ok, let’s try this discussion a different way ……….
NDJ wrote “Long time no hear--- Have you or your partner heard anything from Eldo or Phantom? They just disappeared from sight after closing the Yahoo board.”
NDJ, no we (ITM and myself) have not seen either of these two characters since the demise of the “Horse Players United” yahoo board.
Peopleplayer was last seen by me running a message board somewhere out there, but it was too hard to navigate too.
Canuck (Steve) pops in and posts a hello on our board a couple times a year.
I know these names, PeoplePlayer, Canuck, ITM, FortuneHunter, PA, Larry, and the infamous Frank, who brought it all crashing down are relics of the past, which brings up good and bad feelings.
For those of you that missed it, they were the early days of horse racing message boards. It was like the Wild West, including the Pace Advantage Board. It also reminded me a little of shock radio, the same kind of appeal. I can tell you this, there were a lot of us who could not wait to wake up in the morning, or come home from work, and see what was posted on the board and fire another salvo over the bow. The anonymous nature and the lack of accountability made for some fascinating reading, nothing to do with horse racing mind you.
For those of you out there that remember, hello, how are you?, make a post.
As for me and ITM (a.k.a TruForm) we have our own board where we are continuing to work handicapping methods based on databases. Trying to make a “Bazooka” out of a “BB Gun”.
But back to the point, which is turning a profit playing races.
It is a general conception that 5% of the horseplayers make a sustained profit betting horses. I think this audience does much better maybe 20% of all readers of the post make a profit. So, 8 out of 10 readers should be interested in this discussion.
Question #1: Do you believe this statement is true?
A profit of 5% on your wagered amount (handle) is considered acceptable by whales (large players)
Question #2: Would you accept 10% profit on your wagers?
Here is a statement made by Peopleplayer about 5 years ago and he would fight to the death about it:
You cannot make money with any handicapping system that does not show a profit on a flat $2 Win bet.
Question #3: Do you believe this statement is true?
So here is the theory for discussion:
The handicapping method itself is irrelevant. So use your own, at least it is yours. What is relevant is knowing the following statistics about your handicapping/wagering method over a one or two meets:
Win Frequency
Average Payoff or average odds
ROI Return On Investment for reference, we use an ROI = $1.00 as breakeven
Losing Streak yes the dreaded losing streak, you have them, I have them, Everybody has them
Here is a real example:
Oaklawn Park 2002, 2003, 2004 Meets
Races: Route Dirt
Selection Method: Top S/P figure
Races Played: 622
Races Won: 158
Entries Played per Race: 1
Win Frequency: 24.5%
Avg Payoff Odds: $2.71
ROI: $0.94 where $1.00 is breakeven
Ok, the numbers are not brilliant, but remember the picks are computer generated and every (98%) route race at OP is played. Time spent handicapping: none
Question #4: Do you think the above statistics on a computer selection program for a flat $2 win bet are reasonable and/or average?
We are modeling a modified progressive wagering scheme where:
We set up a modest profit target of $20 per racecard (keeps the debt from growing too fast)
Entries Played per Race & Avg Payoff Odds dictate the debt divisor and subsequent wager
Losing Streak Management i.e When and how much loss to take by reseting the profit target
Win Frequency Statistic is used to evaluate the Losing Streak potential
ROI is a figure of merit on the quality of the selection system.
Question #5: Do you think an average selection system can be made into a profit maker with the correct wagering strategy?
The key is knowing your selection/wagering statistics. It can be done by hand but it takes a tremendous amount of work to do it, plus a long time. That is why your daddy didn’t do it. But with a computer and a database can do in second what it took you to do by hand in a month.
It is a new day and age, if you want to realistically compete for mutuel pool profit in the long haul with your competition, you need the computer and you need to take advantage of the wagering opportunities the Internet presents.
This isn’t about a summer day at Saratoga with friends and family in the backyard at the picnic table, with a beer and a cappy butt sub from Roma’s, studying the DRF, going to Siro’s for the seminar, checking out Azeri in the paddock to see if D. Wayne could get the heart and the courage the fire of a champion to re-ignite (he did), spending an hour handicapping a grade 1. It is what keeps me alive.
This is about taking advantage of technology and opportunity in 2005, to reap the harvest of hundreds of mutual pools out there at your fingertips. Grinding it out everyday in Feburary at the Big A, FG, GP, Tampa, OP, SHRP for $50 day everday untill you bankroll enough for $200 profit everyday.
I thank 8 of 10 of you for putting your money in the game.
I respectfully expect 8 out of 10 of you to answer to post in this thread, I think you should.
Pa, you have done a great job with your (sponsored) board. The best on the net. Sorry for my indescrection.
FortuneHunter, going back to the abyss
NDJ wrote “Long time no hear--- Have you or your partner heard anything from Eldo or Phantom? They just disappeared from sight after closing the Yahoo board.”
NDJ, no we (ITM and myself) have not seen either of these two characters since the demise of the “Horse Players United” yahoo board.
Peopleplayer was last seen by me running a message board somewhere out there, but it was too hard to navigate too.
Canuck (Steve) pops in and posts a hello on our board a couple times a year.
I know these names, PeoplePlayer, Canuck, ITM, FortuneHunter, PA, Larry, and the infamous Frank, who brought it all crashing down are relics of the past, which brings up good and bad feelings.
For those of you that missed it, they were the early days of horse racing message boards. It was like the Wild West, including the Pace Advantage Board. It also reminded me a little of shock radio, the same kind of appeal. I can tell you this, there were a lot of us who could not wait to wake up in the morning, or come home from work, and see what was posted on the board and fire another salvo over the bow. The anonymous nature and the lack of accountability made for some fascinating reading, nothing to do with horse racing mind you.
For those of you out there that remember, hello, how are you?, make a post.
As for me and ITM (a.k.a TruForm) we have our own board where we are continuing to work handicapping methods based on databases. Trying to make a “Bazooka” out of a “BB Gun”.
But back to the point, which is turning a profit playing races.
It is a general conception that 5% of the horseplayers make a sustained profit betting horses. I think this audience does much better maybe 20% of all readers of the post make a profit. So, 8 out of 10 readers should be interested in this discussion.
Question #1: Do you believe this statement is true?
A profit of 5% on your wagered amount (handle) is considered acceptable by whales (large players)
Question #2: Would you accept 10% profit on your wagers?
Here is a statement made by Peopleplayer about 5 years ago and he would fight to the death about it:
You cannot make money with any handicapping system that does not show a profit on a flat $2 Win bet.
Question #3: Do you believe this statement is true?
So here is the theory for discussion:
The handicapping method itself is irrelevant. So use your own, at least it is yours. What is relevant is knowing the following statistics about your handicapping/wagering method over a one or two meets:
Win Frequency
Average Payoff or average odds
ROI Return On Investment for reference, we use an ROI = $1.00 as breakeven
Losing Streak yes the dreaded losing streak, you have them, I have them, Everybody has them
Here is a real example:
Oaklawn Park 2002, 2003, 2004 Meets
Races: Route Dirt
Selection Method: Top S/P figure
Races Played: 622
Races Won: 158
Entries Played per Race: 1
Win Frequency: 24.5%
Avg Payoff Odds: $2.71
ROI: $0.94 where $1.00 is breakeven
Ok, the numbers are not brilliant, but remember the picks are computer generated and every (98%) route race at OP is played. Time spent handicapping: none
Question #4: Do you think the above statistics on a computer selection program for a flat $2 win bet are reasonable and/or average?
We are modeling a modified progressive wagering scheme where:
We set up a modest profit target of $20 per racecard (keeps the debt from growing too fast)
Entries Played per Race & Avg Payoff Odds dictate the debt divisor and subsequent wager
Losing Streak Management i.e When and how much loss to take by reseting the profit target
Win Frequency Statistic is used to evaluate the Losing Streak potential
ROI is a figure of merit on the quality of the selection system.
Question #5: Do you think an average selection system can be made into a profit maker with the correct wagering strategy?
The key is knowing your selection/wagering statistics. It can be done by hand but it takes a tremendous amount of work to do it, plus a long time. That is why your daddy didn’t do it. But with a computer and a database can do in second what it took you to do by hand in a month.
It is a new day and age, if you want to realistically compete for mutuel pool profit in the long haul with your competition, you need the computer and you need to take advantage of the wagering opportunities the Internet presents.
This isn’t about a summer day at Saratoga with friends and family in the backyard at the picnic table, with a beer and a cappy butt sub from Roma’s, studying the DRF, going to Siro’s for the seminar, checking out Azeri in the paddock to see if D. Wayne could get the heart and the courage the fire of a champion to re-ignite (he did), spending an hour handicapping a grade 1. It is what keeps me alive.
This is about taking advantage of technology and opportunity in 2005, to reap the harvest of hundreds of mutual pools out there at your fingertips. Grinding it out everyday in Feburary at the Big A, FG, GP, Tampa, OP, SHRP for $50 day everday untill you bankroll enough for $200 profit everyday.
I thank 8 of 10 of you for putting your money in the game.
I respectfully expect 8 out of 10 of you to answer to post in this thread, I think you should.
Pa, you have done a great job with your (sponsored) board. The best on the net. Sorry for my indescrection.
FortuneHunter, going back to the abyss