NORMALIZED, EQUALIZED & ADJUSTED

[Qwikpace]

Gentlemen:

Can someone please explain to me how to go about adjusting "raw" times (i.e., first call, second call, etc.) from day to day, track to track, as well as sprints to routes (e.g., projecting/extracting when you have no option but to use a router's line in a sprint & vice versa) so that this is no longer a variable? Or at the very least, so this variable is greatly diminished, as if all the horses ran on the same track, or darn near the same, similar to the (unknown) Sartin/Trackmaster method of equalizing, normalizing and adjusting the p.p. lines? Btw, what is their modus operandi? Anyone know?

Any guidance and help in this area would be most appreciated.

Thanks very much.

Qwikpace :)

[JackS]

Quik- A quick answer for horses running sprint to route-add one second to final for the sprint race and compare this fig to the half for other horses.
Pars using total energy expended adjustments would be more accurate, but at times we only want to get into the ballpark.
Adjusting route to sprint is more probablimatic. There are methods for adjustments which may or may not work and could be dependent on the track, the horse or the values that you choose to use.

[Dave Schwartz]

1. Get a good set of par times. I can recommend some if you'd like. <G>

2. Build a "multiplier system."
Huh?

Suppose you have a horse coming from a 6.5 race where the pars are 46.0 1:18.3 going to a 6f where the pars are 44.7 and 1:09.8.

Let's assume that the horse ran 46.3 1:19.0

pace
EP=PaceTime \ PaceParFrom x PaceParTo

EP=46.3 \ 46.0 x 44.7 = 44.99


Final Time
FT=FinalTime \ FinalTimeFrom x FinalTimeTo

FT= 79.0 \ 78.3 x 69.8 =70.42


Sprint-route and Route-Sprint can be done the same way.


Hope this helps.

Dave Schwartz

[alysheba88]

Just be aware that some tracks are notoriously poor at timing their races. Sounds crazy in this day and age I know.

[thoroughbred]

1. Get a good set of par times. I can recommend some if you'd like. <G>

2. Build a "multiplier system."
Huh?

Suppose you have a horse coming from a 6.5 race where the pars are 46.0 1:18.3 going to a 6f where the pars are 44.7 and 1:09.8.

Let's assume that the horse ran 46.3 1:19.0

pace
EP=PaceTime \ PaceParFrom x PaceParTo

EP=46.3 \ 46.0 x 44.7 = 44.99


Final Time
FT=FinalTime \ FinalTimeFrom x FinalTimeTo

FT= 79.0 \ 78.3 x 69.8 =70.42


Sprint-route and Route-Sprint can be done the same way.


Hope this helps.

Dave Schwartz

Dave,
Very logical formula. One question though. If we use it to compare, say, the predicted finish times for the horses in a yet to be run race, do you recommend adjusting the previous "from" final times by the appropriate track variants before applying the formula?

[Dave Schwartz]

Track variants are a plus, yes. I left that out in the interest of simplicity.

However, the Avg Daily Variant approach is weak and needs revamping in a big way.

At many tracks no variant produces better analysis and more profit than ADV! Yet, at some tracks, especially the foul-weather variety, a poor variant is better than no variant.


Dave

[betovernetcapper]

Why not just use the pace figs provided by HDW or Bris?
I recognize that these numbers are not perfect, but I know that creating daily pace variants take too much time (for me). My guess is these numbers are likely to be more accurate than anything I could create on the fly.

[delayjf]

I know what it means to adjust a figure - using a track varient.
and I assume that equalizing refers to equalizing for distances.

But I'm not sure what exactly normalization is all about?? :confused:

[Qwikpace]

JackS, others, thanks for responding to my questions. And to Dave, especially, for the "multiplier system" formula. I'm very grateful.

FYI, my question was directed from a feet per second (and their related Sartin-esque measurements) standpoint. You know the ol' saying: "Garbage in, garbage out." In this case, less than acurate f.p.s.-type numbers.

"Get a good set of par times. I can recommend some if you'd like. <G>"

No need to be modest, Dave. From what I've read, your par times are some (or the) best par times money can buy. When I'm ready to purchase, I'll be sure to give yours a first look. One question though. Do buyers of your par times get some sort of discount when upgrading to next year's version? Or do they pay full price? Yes or no, my purchasing them, if I feel they're the best money can buy, would not pivot on this.

As far as track variant adjustments go, would you recommend using the Sartin two variant points equals one length adjustment? With a limit as to how high or low past a certain adjustment point (e.g., 15, 16 & 17 = 0) one can go?

"Just be aware that some tracks are notoriously poor at timing their races."

Very disturbing. There's absolutely no reason for this type of sloppiness in the 21st century. Zero, zip, nada--NONE! Care to mention what track(s) are guilty of this transgression?

Qwikpace