Past odds as a handicapping factor

[pmd62ndst]

Does anybody use the odds of a horse in past races as a handicapping factor?

In a recent thread, someone had asked for the "most significant handicapping factor" which I responded by saying that the final odds on a horse is the most consistent and dynamic. It just dawned on me that past performances always list the odds and I was wondering if there was a way to use it.

One thing I can immediately think of is to determine if a horse is overvalued or undervalued by the public. Haven't explored this factor and just wondering if anyone has and what their thoughts are.

PMD

[TravisVOX]

I love this angle on younger horses. At Aqueduct yesterday in the second, the Contessa horse was going postward around 7-1. But in his debut in Canada the horse was well bet and ran credibly. Big factor. If they're bet, there's a reason.

[andicap]

Agree. absolutely a huge factor on lightly raced horses that shows if they were well meant.
Also meaningful on a horse off layoff who got bet down but maybe had back luck or a bad day. Could fire today

[cosmicway]

The odds are worked out on the basis of form analysis.
The whispers also play a part.
I don't think past odds play a role - unless you mean there is some sort of sentimental attachment to the horse / stable making it more popular than it should be.
The last minute play angle is good - because connections like to remain unseen for as long as they can. You must therefore avoid places with long ques so you can strike your bet in time !

[so.cal.fan]

It's a huge factor in Southern California. Especially in maiden races.
Our morning line maker at Santa Anita and Del Mar is a good clocker who also reviews all video tapes of races........his morning lines on maidens are powerful.....even more powerful are maidens who get betting action....we have fairly accurate works......many clockers, private and public......not much gets by them.
I have used this angle since the 1960's.......in maiden races......I like to consider all contenders who were below 6/1 in an equal or better field.

[Que]

Yes... if applied properly the horse's past odds can be one of the most important factors in determining a horse's true class.

[cosmicway]

That could be an angle.
Cause if the maiden was touted as a good thing and failed first-second time out, it's bound to get up and win at what might possibly be a good price.
2-3 yo maidens are also scared of mud sometimes and you can "bismarck" them if you watch carefully (see "Body Language of Horses").

[hurrikane]

hey Que,
long time not post.

how's it going?

[Hosshead]

Yes... if applied properly the horse's past odds can be one of the most important factors in determining a horse's true class.Would be interested to know the method to properly applying the past odds. Thanks and Welcome back!

[shanta]

Does anybody use the odds of a horse in past races as a handicapping factor?

I do not. Means absoultely nothing to me. Odds you see in horse's pp's are a reflection of the field he was competing with that race and / or stable trainer intent.

Since today's race is a totally unique matchup ( both in horses AND form cycles) and I could care less whether or not a stable is betting past odds are not a factor for ME.

Richie :)

[Niko]

My findings agree with Shanta in 99% of the situations, and I've tried. We all remember the horse well bet last out that didn't fire and today wins at 10-1. I just didn't find enough to make a profit or discern when it was appropriate, maybe others have.
The only time I pay attention to it now are what others said, lightly raced maidens. Particularily those that have had a lay-off since their well bet race and those that get well bet after switching distances and surfaces. I think you also have to take the trainer into consideration here as some are always bet.

[Turfday]

I do like looking at previous odds in maiden comebackers, especially horses making their return who were well bet in BIG fields or fairly big prices in small fields.

I also pay close attention to the odds a foreign horse went off at in his races and, correspondingly, the fields sizes they were competing with. Also of interest to me, especially for English or French imports, are horses that went off a middle prices.... say 5/1 up to 10/1....and won their races or were very competitive....in big fields at the major tracks there like Newmarket, Epsom, Chantilly, St. Cloud, etc. My reasoning is this. If the import beat a big field at one of the bigger tracks either in England or France, AND was a middle price, it stands to reason that the import was beat at least TWO shorter prices who were more well "fancied" as they say over there.

[Tote Master]

The odds on the tote board only offer a portion of the mutual pool. They don’t reflect anything that might be going on in the exotics. It turns out to be only a small fraction of all the betting pools combined.

That being said, my belief is that “past” odds are basically worthless as a handicapping factor. I also believe “current” odds should only be used as a value gauge to determine whether or not a race is even playable. Examining all of the pre-race betting pools is the only worthwhile method I have found that makes the tote board an invaluable handicapping tool. Using just the current odds in my mind would be like using just the past performances without seeing how the horses actually fit the conditions of the race and how the race sets up for each entry.

When all is said in done, looking for value and being selective with the races we play is an important discipline for long-term success in this game.

Best of Luck

[alysheba88]

I like to look at horses that consistently outrun their odds.

Horses like Caught in the Rain. Won several turf races at long odds.

Some horses, for whatever reason, trainer, jockey, class are consistent overlays.

[bettheoverlay]

American Turf Monthly (I think in the 70s) highly touted a system which used the odds of the last 2 races. The last race odds had to be lower than the previous race by a certain percentage. That was about it for my 40 bucks! Losing streaks like you might believe.

[jk3521]

Bettheoverlay,
I didn't read the Turf Monthly article, but I used such a system in the seventies and eighties. Hit some monster longshots. Only certain trainers such as Gil Puentes, Vinnie Nocella, and some Jersey based conditioners who shipped in.
There was an old guy ,he was known as "Harry the Horse", at OTB that only handicapped by the entries in the Daily News that would show the last three race finishing positions. If he saw 0-2-0, or 0-3-0 for the horse, it was a play. he hit loads of longshots.

[gurulj]

If one knows what he is looking for the last race odds can be a very viable
factor in playing long shots.

The horse has to be properly placed as to class, distance, and surface.
It helps if the horse is owned by the trainer, or his/her family. It also helps
if the trainer does anything else to help his charge's chances by putting
a jock in the irons that's ridden the horse well before, or a hot bug boy.
It also helps to know if the trainer is likely to have placed the horse
through a couple condition checker races prior to this race.

Look for one with one or two races since the last layoff and that went off
at high odds its last race and is going off at a lesser odds today. Look at
some old races and see if you can tell what I'm saying.

Jerry
http://www.a1handicapping.com/