funny trend PART Duex

[46zilzal]

Reviewing a lot of races for SartinALums and finding an intersting thing. One of the biggest DOWNERS in this methodology is SAMPLE ERROR, and many causes have come forth...here is ONE of them

When MOST horses with earlier running styles FIND a spot with little or no early pace pressure, their energy distribution tends to become later, i.e many "need to lead" types which usually run extremely early, often wind up as early/pressers. Since this "winning line" is visually impressive, it is often chosen as the pace representation of this horse when OFTEN it is an ABERRANT line.

CONCLUSION: Always substantiate how an animal runs versus PRESSURE to get a clearer view of what the information will PROJECT to today.

[andicap]

Reviewing a lot of races for SartinALums and finding an intersting thing. One of the biggest DOWNERS in this methodology is SAMPLE ERROR, and many causes have come forth...here is ONE of them

When MOST horses with earlier running styles FIND a spot with little or no early pace pressure, their energy distribution tends to become later, i.e many "need to lead" types which usually run extremely early, often wind up as early/pressers. Since this "winning line" is visually impressive, it is often chosen as the pace representation of this horse when OFTEN it is an ABERRANT line.

CONCLUSION: Always substantiate how an animal runs versus PRESSURE to get a clearer view of what the information will PROJECT to today.


Question 46,
Do you think a lot of horseplayers would really use this line to handicap a race. Not being a wiseguy, I really am curious. Seems like common sense to me to throw it out if the pace is much slower than usual. Most good players will throw out any easy wire-to-wire win won without pressure.

Or am I giving most handicappers too much credit?

[46zilzal]

They can do what they want...just an observation

[46zilzal]

Seems like common sense to me to throw it out if the pace is much slower than usual. Most good players will throw out any easy wire-to-wire win won without pressure.
Where does it say SLOWER? often these types have MUCH more in reserve and finish up in equal to or BETTER final time........Just the first fraction might be a tad slower.