Steelers/Patriots

[Valuist]

Interesting how the Stardust had an early line of Pitt -1.5 before this past weekend and now its NE, on the road -3. The books are putting themselves in a very interesting position. The ml on Pitt +3 had wandered up to -118 last night at Pinnacle and was -124 this morning. Books will almost never move a number off 3 to avoid possible arbitrage. At this line, the sharps will continue to unload on Pitt; I'm guessing it will be -135 or -140 at some point. I'm sure they'll get some public money on the Patriots near game time but this is not the line I anticipated.

[Valuist]

Here's a unit comparison:

Offense:
QB: Edge: New England. Rothlesberger has played as well as any rookie QB I can remember but he's still a rookie and Brady has been a big time money player

RB: Pitt: Bettis/Staley et al 154.0 yards per game. NE: Dillon/Faulk 133.4 yards per game. Both Steelers RBs have considerable playoff experience. Sunday was Dillon's first game. Edge: Pittsburgh

WR: New England's receiving corps is solid but unspectacular. Ward and Burress are one of the top WR duos in the NFL. Edge: Pittsburgh

O-line: Pitt has run better but has given up 8 more QB sacks. Brady's 3 step drops may have something to do with that. Pitt is considered the top o-line in football but the edge may not be huge.

Defense:
Run D: Both solid but Pitt better (81 ypg to 96, and 3.6 ypc to 3.9 ypc). Pitt held NE to 5 yards on 6 carries in their earlier matchup.

Pass D: Pitt gives up 191 ypg, 68.0 QB rating and 14 TDs 19 INTs New England gives up 231.9 ypg, 75.3 eff. rating and 18 TDs 20 picks. NE did have a 45-41 QB sack edge. Edge to Pitt; not huge but still there.

Kicker: Vinatieri led all kickers in scoring and should've been MVP in the first SB win. Pitt's kicker was 3rd in scoring but the edge has to go to Vinatieri and New England

Punting: Pitt was 6th in net punting while NE was 31st. Edge: solid Pitt.

Coaching: Cowher is very good but Belichek is simply the best. Edge: NE

Earlier matchup: Pitt 34 NE 20 key facts: Dillon DNP, New Eng 5 rush yards on 6 carries. New England 4 turnovers to 0 for Pitt. Time of possession: Pitt 42:58 to 17:02. Gametime line NE -3. Temp: 64 degrees.

Interesting that Pitt has more advantages but NE has edges in arguably the 3 key areas: QB, coaching and kicker

[Suff]

I think It will be a good game. I think the Pats have a very serious chnace to win... But as Far as betting? I think the play is Steelers plus 3. If it stays there... It'd be hard not to take a field goal.. Because I can;t see teh Pats blowing them out on the road..

Maybe a better bet would be a Tease to another game or the O/U and get Steelers Plus 9... (a virtual Lock).

I have one bookie that will let me tease to the TOTAL.. and one that will not. Do the Offshores let you Tease Totals?

[Valuist]

I think most do. I don't play teasers but I know I've heard others playing teased totals.

[sq764]

I think the intagible is Bellicheck/Brady versus Cowher/Rothersburger..

I think their offenses are almost equal and their defenses are very similiar. New England 24-13