SA Prediction (Sat 1/15)

[rmania]

Race 9
I’m not predicting a winner. Rather, I’m predicting that #3 Attilas Storm and #5 Only in Reno will finish within @ 1 length of each other. Whether first and second, last and next to last, or anywhere in between.

Sounds like a silly prediction but it could be significant if it holds true.

Will explain later.....

[shanta]

Very nice. A little TEASE to go with my morning java.

Good hunting today !
Richie :)

[BIG RED]

Just checked horse match ups at Pinny. No race 9 at SA. That bet you would stay away from.

[rmania]

Just checked horse match ups at Pinny. No race 9 at SA. That bet you would stay away from.
Personally, I think both horses will bounce. But my interest is where they will finish in comparison to each other.

Again, I'll explain later....

[BetHorses!]

Personally, I think both horses will bounce. But my interest is where they will finish in comparison to each other.

Again, I'll explain later....


I'll add my thoughts to this

my numbers are 5-3-6-9 BUT I make #5 even money and #3 2-1.... big break to #6 at 20-1 then 9 at 25-1

[BetHorses!]

Close on your prediction---#5 beat #3 by 2 lengths at the finish but then #3 was a DQ and placed 6th

Waiting to hear your explanation on why this was significant

[kingfin66]

You're intriguing us more and more everyday. First you hit longshots in SoCal, now this. You're enigma wrapped in a riddle, or something like that.

BTW, you mentioned that your most recent hit took only 5 minutes of handicapping with 'reliable' software. Which program are you using anyway?

[rmania]

You're intriguing us more and more everyday. First you hit longshots in SoCal, now this. You're enigma wrapped in a riddle, or something like that.

BTW, you mentioned that your most recent hit took only 5 minutes of handicapping with 'reliable' software. Which program are you using anyway?
Well, I didn’t see the race but after reading about it I’d say that the incident on the turn (resulting in the DQ) probably cost the #3 horse at least 1 length. So my prediction (#3 and #5 would finish no less than 1 length apart) basically came true.

So why is this significant? (This is probably a thread for the General Handicapping forum but what the heck.)

First, let me tell you that I’ve been playing the ponies for more 32 years. I say this to help my credibility for what I’m about to tell you.

I have a theory, which I have basically proven, that horses which run identical races will display an equal amount of regression or improvement in there next race. This theory is best supported when two horses lockup in a head-to-head battle, from start to finish, then meet in the same race next time out. This was exactly the case yesterday.

Now, the only way to capitalize on this theory is to get to the point where horses from different races can be compared for running the “same” race. And I have achieved this to a large degree. Yes, there are still some gray areas but one of these days......

Oh and Kingfin66, I can’t tell what software I use because every time I mention it I get scolded by PA.
So you can ask him or someone else on this board, or you can e-mail me and I’ll tell you ;)

[BIG RED]

Just checked horse match ups at Pinny. No race 9 at SA. That bet you would stay away from.

Thats why I stated this rmania, if they were in a head-to-head match you could bet, you would avoid it because they would run to close to one another.

[rmania]

Thats why I stated this rmania, if they were in a head-to-head match you could bet, you would avoid it because they would run to close to one another.
You're absolutley right BIG RED....

However, if you were able to correctly predict that (because of that previous effort) both horses were going to regress significantly then you could bet on any number of horses to beat them if such a wager was offered.

[BetHorses!]

You're absolutley right BIG RED....

However, if you were able to correctly predict that (because of that previous effort) both horses were going to regress significantly then you could bet on any number of horses to beat them if such a wager was offered.


or you just created a new prop


# 3 and # 5 within 1 length of each other at finish line Yes+105 NO -120

Payoff based on Official DRF charts :)