The Lecomte

[TravisVOX]

All eyes are on STORM SURGE, a high-speed son of Storm Cat from the Dallas Stewart barn. He raced twice at Saratoga, graduating from his entry-allowance condition before getting trounced in the Hopeful. Most recently he sported a 100 figure on Brisnet earned going just 6 panels. He's gone two-turns but once, a sound defeat in the KYJC at CD. He has drawn the outside which means Albarado has no chance but to go and display this early speed. I think he has distance limitations and at 8/5 warrants underlay status.

Tough finding a top pick though...

KANSAS CITY BOY figures to flaunt his early zip as well, and is out of Boston Harbor whose sons have yet to crack the 7 furlong AWD mark. But he was an easy 8 length winner of his most recent start, his maiden breaker in the slop at CD. Nice drill for this race, gut-check time for this boy. 3/1 isn't exciting.

When you consider these two, you're quickly down just 4 remaining steeds. BILOXI PALACE was a decent winner in last, but enjoyed slow early splits that will put him last tomorrow. He's cooked. MAJOR LEAGUE was pitiful in his most recent start. Nothing exciting prior either.

Bailey ships in for SMOOTH BID. Is Bailey just playing his cards to have a horse come May if his others don't make it? Trying for 3 in a row but like that this colt comes from off the pace. He's 6/1 on the ML with a few stamina building works in the mix. Asmussen has won this race before (Badge of Silver, right?) and I like the pace scenario he figures to face.

If the other two completely collapse, SILVER HAZE has late run that could land him in the exotics.

Any thoughts?

[Blackgold]

Trav, Smooth Bid is the price play and yes, you are right, the pace sets up perfect.

[bettheoverlay]

I'd be surprised if Smooth Bid goes off higher than 3-1 given Bailey/Asmussen connections. Major League has the looks of a 2nd or 3rd finisher at big odds. Ran in a million dollar! race last time, and finished 2nd at 12/1 at a higher purse 2 back. Texas bred though. Biloxi Palace may be a pace forcer no matter what the fractions. Got to give him a second look. I'll probably be looking for Silver Haze at 6-1 or better. Might have the right style, won his last at FG, same distance as today, and have had success betting his trainer, Steve Wren.

[andicap]

Lot of speed, looking for lower energy contender for win or key in exotics.
Closers have legit shot at 8f at FG especially in a race with so much E/EP types.

BILOXI Palace -- agree with Travis. Pace will be too fast. Energy will be too too high to win.

KC BOY - real possibility off layoff. low energy, but must show can relax at longer distance and doesn't have to run early. Excellent HTR Workout number but will downgrade long-term prospects if doesn't run today.

STORM Surge -- Breeding says yes and so does race 3 back at LS. Likely to face softer pace than 2 back at CD and energy is perfect. Relaxed real well on lead last time at sprint.
On the downside, will be -- as Travis says -- the outside speed and have to gun or be wide. Also possible he may regress after fast race just 22 days ago. Works just OK.

SILVER HAZE -- closed against softer paces. Will be much further back today. MIGHT grab a piece if race falls apart.

SMOOTH BID -- Great development and workout line. If can relax and make a late run like he did in his turf races has an excellent shot in the exotics if he as developed any further at all. Would consider as exotics key at 8-1 or so.

MAJOR LEAGUE -- have to use off track race to give horse an outside shot.
Will be shuffled back on rail, but is closer anyway so will save ground. Will be passing tiring horses late. Throw out last due to sizzling pace. Question mark on fast dirt. Energy appears bit too high here.


PREDICTION": STORM SURGE, KC BOY are best horses but likely underlays.

Bet: Smooth Bid if 8-1 or more (in field of six). Small to WP, more as exotic, tri key.

[keilan]

Major League – This horse may be better than he has shown to date.

Kansas City Boy – another horse that has yet to show his best stuff.

Silver Haze – might not be fast enough

Biloxi Palace – may have bounced in his last race and still wins, I look for a better effort today. He should take a stalking trip off of Storm Surge’s flank and run when asked.

Smooth Bid – will have to step up his game to lite the board.

Storm Surge – this guy has some distance limitations, 8f is as far as this guy has shown he can travel in a competitive field. 8/5 ML flatters this horse.

Wager -- Biloxi Palace/over and under Major League and Kansas City Boy in the exactors

[kingfin66]

I'm guessing that with the small field size, and even smaller odds, that y'all probably weren't pounding this race. I did enjoy the analysis though. Keep it coming.