Bris LP pace of race

[grahors]

Hello to all,
Please check my formulas tell me if I am on the right "track".
The bris LP pace of race= LP of horse-2x lengths gained or lost by horse(subtract lengths at finish from lengths at 2call)
Now, to get a PPF as per handicapping magic, PPF= LP(of race)+2xbeaten lengths at finish.
Am I on track here??? My brain turns to mud after looking at figs for awhile.
Grahors

[Big Bill]

Grahors,

Here's my thoughts:

After you have determined the lengths gained or lost in the final fraction, you should multiply them by two and then ADD (not subtract) it to the LP rating. Then in caculating the PPF in BRIS numbers you should multiply the beaten lengths at the finish by two and SUBTRACT (not add) it to previously calculated LP (of race).

You must remember that actual fractional times and BRIS ratings act in reverse, i.e., when the fractions are quicker/smaller the BRIS ratings are larger. When you adjust a fractional time to make it slower/larger, you make the BRIS rating smaller. I hope I've explained that well enough so that you might experiment and see if my thinking is correct or not.

Big Bill

[grahors]

I see your point....If the horse gains lengths from 2nd call to finish, he is running faster than the pac of the race so you would subtract 2xL from his LP. If the horse lost lengths, he was running slower so you would add to his pace to get pace of race.
Your PPF is right..LP of race-2xBL at finish.
Does it sound OK now.
Grahors

[mhrussell]

grahors-

To get an equivalent type of Handicapping Magic style PPF number for a horse using BRIS late pace is easy:

PPF = LP - 2*(Beaten lengths at second call)

where LP is the BRIS late pace rating for the horse
and you subtract two times the beaten lengths at the second call.

Remember, PPF is a measure of finishing ability considering 2nd call positional tendency.

[Tom]

Here's how I handle LP ratings:
[code]
EP LP
Horse A 100 80 On the lead 2nd call
Horse B 80 93 5 back second call

Assume A is the projected leader (fulcrum)
POR for B is 90 80 + (2X5)
B's race went 10 slower to the pace call, so I deduct 20 poiints fro his LP
(I deduct 2 for each point deficit at the early call - the HUEY effect Pizzola talked about - it takes 2 units of late energy to recover 1 unit lost early)
So the effective LP of A remains 80 and the effective LP of B is 93-20 = 73

[grahors]

Sweet....so, if i read you right, You project a fulcrum ala Pizolla then compare the others to it using their POR and project a late pace for the horse using your adjustments. Would you then add the POR and projected late pace to see who might have enough gas in the tank or would you add the horses EP+ projected LP and compare total pace ratings?
Ahhhh...just more to play with.
Thanks Tom,
Grahors

[46zilzal]

You project a fulcrum ala Pizolla then compare the others to it using their POR
Using this prepare to be aware of SIGNIFICANT sample error