5%

[anotherdave]

I have seen the statistic in many books that about 5% of horseplayers actually make money. I am not sure what "make money" means - make money over a day, month, or year? Does anyone have any info (or even just intuition) about what the real % of horseplayers is who show a net profit over a one year period? Is there any real data out there or is it too hard to gather?

AD

P.S. Whatever the real percentage is, I am sure the PA board far exceeds it - we're not a random sample!

[kitts]

Never seen any statistic. But I have seen statistics on similar endeavors. I don't recall if it was world class skating or a champion US golfer but no matter. I think it is a reasonable assumption that to be the best, or near best, in the country, it seems that 5% would be a reasonable number. It would be hard to measure total horseplayers in USA but I know the DRF in its heyday, pre Equibase et al, quoted a measurable number that has stayed with me. And that is the number of racetrack attendees that did not buy the Form. So, if there are 100,000 or whatever at the tracks on a Saturday, I am convinced the vast majority are not working for a profit. So, IMHO, if you end the year at a profit, you are in the top 5% of horseplayers in the country.

[anotherdave]

I'd say top 0.5%, but that might be bragging. I just haven't seen enough winners to buy 5%.

AD

[takeout]

I always heard that the 5% thing was just those that won on any given day.

[theoptimist]

And to expand on the topic - Anotherdave - what sort of money are these top 0.5% people making??? That is the question I would like answered.

I am having a play with something in OZ that may return tens of thousands of dollars per year before it is limited by pool sizes. It would be nice to know whether I am aiming too high or low compared to other winning pros out there.(not that i profess to be a pro...yet)

[karlskorner]

Anotherdave;

Statistics. How does one gather statistics on a "winning'' khandicapper ? Do you follow them to the window, ask them if they are making money at the track, ask to see their tax returns (if there are any). see what kind of car they are driving, or where they live, try to find some indication that they are earning a livning at the track and what is considered a "living" ?

My observations have been that if I see the same people day in and day out, "year in and year out" and they have "no other visible means of income", they must be doing something right. Even Ernest Dahlman never stated his true earnings in his invterview.

The "loneliest" person at the track is a "winning" player, he does not discuss his wagers, earnings or methods of handicapping with anyone, he does not "hang" with friends, bellyup to the bar, or brag to everyone about his last win, or that he had a good day, week or month. So how are you going to gather statistics about him.

Karl
_________________________________________________
Never take investment advice from someone who's working

[Whirlaway]

There are very few actual professional horseplayers out there, but they do exist. There's only one at my local OTB, but he is legit -- I did his taxes one year when I was working at H&R Block.

He churns about $2 million a year and I would guess he nets about 3-4% on that handle. He says he gets most of his profits from the pick six, which makes sense since when there's a carryover he's playing against a smaller takeout.

Also plays the rolling pick threes in a interesting way. When he has a single he never bets it to win. Instead he bets a huge amount in the pick three, often on an all-single-all ticket. Makes no sense to me, but it obviously works for him.

Even though he's a winner, I've known him to tap out a couple of times and have to raise a new bankroll to get back in the game. Must be doing OK now though, since he just bought a new silver Lincoln.

The kind of professional described by Jim Quinn in his books: $200 to win on two to three prime bets a day with a 20% ROI, just doesn't exist today, if it ever did. The quality of the cards just isn't good enough any more to support that kind of play. Today's pro is a high churn, low ROI player, often getting a kickback on his action.

I used to be a winning player of the Quinn variety, though my profits only amounted to mid four figures most years as a part timer. When full card simulcasting finally came to California, I thought the extra action would allow me to become a full time pro. Unfortunately, the exact opposite happened. I became a losing player almost overnight.

Since I didn't know the horses or trainers on the new circuits, I was forced to become a figures player. Without realizing it, I gave up my edge. Since my attention was divided among four circuits instead of two, I was no longer paying enough attention to the California tracks even to retain my edge there. I was like Amazon.com: a negative expectation on every bet, but I made it up in volume.

Not surprisingly, I drifted away from the game.

Now I've gone back to the basics. Watching the race replays, searching for quality trainer angles (hint: you'll seldom find them in the raw statistics) and getting to know the horses. I'm I winner again, but I'd have to bet $500 to $1000 a race to make a living at it, something I have neither the stomach nor the bankroll to be able to do. It's still a very enjoyable hobby, though.

[NormanTD]

As I've heard (and this is far from being statistically valid so ymmv)

on any one day

95% of the daily public loses

5% make money

of that 5%, perhaps 3% or even less (2%) make money with any consistancy and on any regular basis

and again, this is just from guys I know that do this alot and do make money at it.

[karlskorner]

Where are these statistics coming from ? Newpaper columnist who never leave the press box because they would miss the free lunch, book writers who promise to put you in the 5% winners bracket. 15 years of daily attendance and I have never had someone come up and say " Hi, I am taking a survey" The winners are out there, they just are not wearing T-shirts stating "I won the Tri"

Karl

[JimG]

...and the funny part about this 5% business is how many people at the track will admit they are overall losers? If you asked, at least half would say...oh yeah, I'm a winner....


JimG

[entropy]

agree with anotherdave -- my guess re pro winners would be .5% tops. also believe 5% would be too high for the recreational punter across a whole year.

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/10.03/betting.html