a1handicapping

[grahors]

Read some stuff at a1handicapping.com on average pace number. He suggests picking the best E1, E2, LP of the last 3 races, adding them and dividing by 3. Wouldn't this destroy the "so much in the gas tank theory"? Pace figs need to be used in the context of the pacline being looked at to be realistic. There are also some other charts on the site...one is for projecting the speed next out with the use of multipliers and beaten lengths (may have some merit) and also projecting a speed fig for workouts. I dunno?
Has anyone tried this stuff...
Grahors

[BIG HIT]

Have the software and find spd\wks most useful.Try the software free trial be aware it design for picking longshot!.And the cheaper horse's although it has picked horse like wareblem and volponi on top on spd.
So hope this help's good luck in whatever you do Have a great day

[sq764]

I love the 2WSLR angle, especially if the horse is in the top 3 speed..

Frankly, I have heard the program (and his ebook) dogged by a lot of people, but personally I think it's a fantastic way of looking at trainer angles and it's very effective at picking longshots.

[toetoe]

Grahors,
Just got home from work, saw your thread and went to the site. The guy is a GOOBER! He's a tiny step above the guy whose book advised the reader to look for lots of 1's in a horse's p.p.'s. Example: Always insist on 4/1 or higher (so far so good), but insisting on 6/1 is better. If you hit @ 15% on 6/1's you'll at least break even (right, @ least 5%). But if you take 4/1 YOU'LL HAVE TO HIT @ 30% TO BREAK EVEN (He calls it breaking even, I call it profiting 50%!!!!). This is someone we want to take money management advice from, even for free?

[sq764]

I didn't see where Grahors mentioned a word about money management..

[toetoe]

Sorry if that looked like a swipe @ Grahors (not the case) or anyone but the purveyors of this stuff they should pay us to read .. or proofread.

[sq764]

To be honest, when I read the ebook, there were parts about trainer angles that were outstanding and other parts that were quite ridiculous.. One of them that comes to mind is the Trifecta Box Combinations, which stated that you should bet 2 evens and an odd # horse in a tri or 2 odds and an even... You have to pick and choose the worthwhile parts..

All things aside, the Propace software put out some of the biggest longshots I ever hit, several in the $120 range..

[midnight]

I've read the E-book, too. While some of it isn't valid, the author does have quite a few things to say that will make you think a bit, and just about everybody will learn something from it. If that something you learn makes or saves you bets, then it's paid its way.

[BIG HIT]

He i would say use as a starting point for beginner's.He state's in book the so called [rule's] are really more guide and not written in stone.And he also say's for you to think and not just use rule's as they were in stone like 16 day's\23day's.His stone stuff would be angle's

[JustMissed]

Besides the E book Jerry offers weekly handicapping lessons for $3/month with free email support and also telephone support-no charge either.

Jerry will take plenty of his own time to answer questions and is probably the most generous teacher/vendor out there.

I took his lessons a few years back and even now I will email him a question from time to time and he will respond usually that same day.

His ebook is worth 3 times the price for the trainer angles alone.

JM :)

P.S. As far as the validity of the trifecta box combinations-it is just simply a mathematical way to reduce the number of trifecta combinations you need to buy to cover your contenders. It is for people who want to play the trifectas but have a limited bankroll and can't line up the finishers. Works even better for the dog track where all the animals are contenders.

[BIG HIT]

Agree with your post 100% jerry is a stand up guy.I'am computer idiot and jerry had his work more then cut out with me.
He even called me back at the time he said he would he solved the problem the program was in D.O.S. then took him a while on the phone.And that was all on his dime.He bring's integerity to the business and the rule's some are not ment to be in stone.Just a starting point for beginner's new to the game.He spoke on this board and some were harsh wanted proof every word he wrote worked.As anybody been around know's nothing is a black box.
And so they were kinda harsh i thought but like he say's more money for us.That statement was true as i went to the track for derby and BC day had my pick's before went to trxck ment few friend's derbyday gave them wareblem which propace had pick on top and bc day same thing with volponi but on top on contender report Wareblem top spd report..Both won and told my friend's tobet them which they didn't.

[gurulj]

I'll quote from the web site:

The 2nd thing you will need to do is set a minimum odds level at which you will wager. For this I suggest at least 4 to 1 or higher. If you set the minimum odds to wager on at 6 to 1, then you only have to hit about 15% of your wagers to at least break even. If your win percentage, over say 300 races, proves to be better than 15% then you can lower your minimum odds to wager on, to say 4 to 1. But at these odds you will have to hit about 30% of your wagers to break even.

If you can hit more than 35% your the best handicapper I ever knew. Do the math compadre. Hitting 30% winners at 4/1 you make let's say 100 plays, so
you hit 30 times at an average of 4/1 or $10. You collect 30 X $10 or $300.
You lose 70 times at we'll say $2 plus expenses. You lost at minimum $10 a
day in expenses and 70 times $2 or $140. If you made those bets over 20
days you lost $10 times 20 days or $200. Your wagering losses plus 20
days of expenses come to $340. I don't call that profit compadre. Good luck
and good handicapping to you.

Jerry
http://www.a1handicapping.com/

[gurulj]

ToeToe here is a quote from chapter one of the eBook:

So choose your races well, and the sure times will outweigh the wrong ones,
and you will be well rewarded. If you'll clear your mind and let this little book TEACH you HOW to handicap, it will. If you go into the book convinced that you already know how to handicap, it won't. It's that simple, and if that's what you're doing, you might as well hang it up right now. If what you've been doing is not working the way you'd like, what in the heck are you doing it for? Try clearing your mind and doing something different. You can do it on paper and it won't cost you a thing but time.

You're a skeptic compadre, and well you should be. There are folks out
there that will rip your ass off quicker than a cat can lick it's butt. If you
purchased the eBook you got a 1 year guarantee that if you didn't like the
book you could simply ask for your money back no questions asked.

I read one post saying the book is worth 3 times its cost. I have given
away many copies to people that told me they couldn't afford $47. Then
gave them hours and hours of time out my pocket to answer their questions.

I've sold the book from $24.95 to $97 and the higher I set the price the
fewer refunds were asked for. In fact the most refund requests came at
the $24.95 level. It seems the more one pays for a product the more he is
likely to read the 'structs...

If you have nothing good to say it's best to say nothing at all until you
know what you're talking about... :)

Jerry
http://www.a1handicapping.com/

[andicap]

Before everyone starts getting their knickers in a twist about Jerry using this site to promite his product, I want to say that he is a stand-up guy. I bought his original software -- when it was a clunky DOS version -- and he always had time on the phone for users to talk about the software or handicapping in general.
Jerry Stokes is extremely generous with himself in terms of explaining his ideas to people. You might think its because he wants to sell more software/books, but on a $/hour basis, he's probably making less than minimum wage.

His moves within a race -- signs of trainer intent- are similar to those that Jim Lehane discusses in Calibration Handicapping, but Jerry has some moves that Jim lacks and vice versa. I believe Jerry helped Jim with building one of his original websites.

Jerry, just be prepared that people here are always suspicious that you are dropping by to just sell something, not to talk horse racing.

[toetoe]

I never thought he was hawking his book. Judging by his subsequent post, maybe he is. I don't mind. I just think we have to keep our eyes on the "crucible of expectation" as some writer (Quinn?) put it. No more name-calling from me.

[PaceAdvantage]

Now now Andi, why do you have to get all jaded and cynical on us both at the same time?

[grahors]

I have been playing horses for 25 years....just bought the book couple of days ago. I love it! With the weather the way it has been, the tracks I play in the evening have cancelled so I haven't tested some of the theories with $2 bets....that's probably a good thing, it gives me a chance to read and re-read the book and digest the stuff. Some of the stuff, I knew. Some I didn't.
I always love to learn and test. The pure enjoyment of going over old forms and charts the last 2 nights has paid for the book in my judgement.
I do want to try the software at some point but my wife likes me to fund my racing library and software stuff with winnings so it may take awhile...or maybe not...we shall see...hopefully this weekend.
Thanks Jerry...I look forward to the classes and future e mails.
Grahors
P.S.-I am an avid angle player...lots to look at.

[sq764]

Before everyone starts getting their knickers in a twist about Jerry using this site to promite his product, I want to say that he is a stand-up guy. I bought his original software -- when it was a clunky DOS version -- and he always had time on the phone for users to talk about the software or handicapping in general.
Jerry Stokes is extremely generous with himself in terms of explaining his ideas to people. You might think its because he wants to sell more software/books, but on a $/hour basis, he's probably making less than minimum wage.

His moves within a race -- signs of trainer intent- are similar to those that Jim Lehane discusses in Calibration Handicapping, but Jerry has some moves that Jim lacks and vice versa. I believe Jerry helped Jim with building one of his original websites.

Jerry, just be prepared that people here are always suspicious that you are dropping by to just sell something, not to talk horse racing.


Andi, I am both cynical and suspicious..

With that being said, I will be comletely honest with you.. Jerry's E-book SOH, was one of the finest pieces of reading I have ever read.. I did not agree with 100% of it, but most of it certainly..

I think Modern Pace Handicapping is the best book I have ever read, by the way.. SOH does not come close to that, but it's a very good book nonetheless..

[toetoe]

Two books that come to mind:
1) The Spy Who Came In From The Cold. Only thing by Le Carre I can even stand. Strange.
2) I Never Promised You A Rose Garden.

[gurulj]

Hi guys and gals,

I'm not here to hype anything. And I won't go into why I do what I do. I will say
I probably spend more trying to teach people to get out of the 95% club than
what I'll ever make in my life time. And I could chunck it all today and go back
to making money at the track (on the Internet). I chose to teach. That's
enough of that.

I guess it's kinda like Dr. Rice said to Senator Boxer. We can discuss this any time in any manner. Just don't like my integrity to be impuned. Good luck to all and good handicapping to you. I can't spend much time lurking here.

Jerry

http://www.a1handicapping.com (http://www.a1handicapping.com/)

[gurulj]

Here is how we do the Avg Pace figures. It can be done by pencil or pen
and paper and you don't need to buy anything. All you need is time.

Take a look at the last 3 races. Take the highest E1 of the 3.
Do the same thing with the E2. Take the highest of the last 3.
Do the same thing with the LP. Take the highest of the last 3.
Now divide the sum of the 3 figures by 3 (sum 258/3 = 86).
86 is the Avg Pace figure. For any blank figure use 60. That is
how the software gets it's pace numbers. Are they worth a shit?
About as good as I've seen anyone else's do. You can tell I am not
a pace handicapping proponent.

As for the Projected Speed we use the TSN Speed figures. We use
TSN's chart of 100 SR speed ratings, take the last race finish and
then multiply the lenghts behind at the finish, add that to the TSN
speed figure and project how fast the horse might run today providing
it doesn't have bad luck, a poor ride, is properly placed, and providing
there is trainer intent in the race. How do we deterime trainer intent?
That is in the SOH book but it's not something you'll find easily. And
you will never find what all makes up the contender report or the
weights given each factor it looks for. Are we 100% sure each race?
Hell no! Far from it. But what else hits 100%? Nothing.

Now there won't be any question how we figure pace or speed. Pace
may make the race... but every horse is not sent to win or try. I'm
not saying races are fixed, far from it. Trainers know they can't win
every race they enter, so why waste the gas in the tank to try? Why
not save some 'til the public will overlook the horse, thinking its form
is terrible, and the odds are better? That way they only have to hit one
in a few to come out smelling. Do trainers actually do rotten things like
that? You bet your sweet ass... and it's not illegal... Happy trails :)

Jerry
http://www.a1handicapping.com (http://www.a1handicapping.com/)

[midnight]

"Trainers know they can't win every race they enter, so why waste the gas in the tank to try?"


Little Joe/Jerry: that's something I've been preaching for fifteen years. If a trainer knows that his horse isn't quite up to it today,MIGHT get a minor share with a little luck, but would also be used up to a degree that it might not perform well in the next race, he/she is likely to just send the horse out for a workout (at the public's expense) and wait for better days.

[Tote Master]

Jerry
Now there won't be any question how we figure pace or speed. Pace may make the race... but every horse is not sent to win or try. I'm not saying races are fixed, far from it. Trainers know they can't win every race they enter, so why waste the gas in the tank to try? Why not save some 'til the public will overlook the horse, thinking its form is terrible, and the odds are better? That way they only have to hit one in a few to come out smelling. Do trainers actually do rotten things like that? You bet your sweet ass... and it's not illegal... Happy trails
Midnight
"Trainers know they can't win every race they enter, so why waste the gas in the tank to try?"

Little Joe/Jerry: that's something I've been preaching for fifteen years. If a trainer knows that his horse isn't quite up to it today,MIGHT get a minor share with a little luck, but would also be used up to a degree that it might not perform well in the next race, he/she is likely to just send the horse out for a workout (at the public's expense) and wait for better days.

Well Jerry and Midnight you’ve provided some more enlightening words for the unenlightened.

It's nice to see that I’m not the only one that realizes that this is only a game!
How the ridicule I used to hear from the old timers at the track rings so loud and true: “They’re playing their games again”! they used to say, after tearing up their tickets. I was fortunate enough to come to this conclusion when I discovered just how powerful a tote board analysis can be. After all, this entire game is driven by one thing and one thing only: MONEY! And where does all that money come from? Players alone are certainly not generating it! There are many others who are much closer to this game and have a lot more at stake from the outcome of a race.

Besides, why would the connections want to collect on a favorite (in other then maybe a stakes race) when they can save their animal for a real score? True intentions are marked by money. Not by just what’s in the Win pool either! Those who think the odds are the sole indicators of the board are only getting a small glimpse of the entire picture.

So don’t feel bad fellas! No matter what anyone says (or preaches), some will never grow out of their naiveté. They will surely continue to believe that every horse in a race is “trying to win”. After all, the PP’s, the handicapping, the software, the appearance of the animal, it all points to the winners.
That’s okay by me.

[gurulj]

Yea Totemaster I've been accused of "Smoke and mirrors" on this board
because I speak of trainer moves on my web site. But I never met a well
priced horse that wasn't planned for this race two or three races back.
I've known a lot trainers that had to make money off their wagers and
had to have the odds up just in case they had to take a couple losses
before they got one to win.

And I've always said this was the game I loved the most in my life.
You must be and old timer too LOL! I don't think I've heard any one
say "They're playing their games again" in a long time. I used to love
the old Fair Grounds before it burned in the late 80s (?). Can't remember
for the life of me when it was now. Any way it's good to talk to another
"Old Timer." Take care and God bless.

Jerry
http://www.a1handicapping.com/

[Tote Master]

Hey Jerry don’t feel bad, sometimes I feel like I’m preaching to the choir. (when they’re singing!) But you know how that goes! This whole game revolves around peoples opinions, and the convictions to bet on those opinions. You’ll find more disagreement about a race then just about anything, even among friends.
Yea Totemaster I've been accused of "Smoke and mirrors" on this board because I speak of trainer moves on my web site. But I never met a well priced horse that wasn't planned for this race two or three races back. I've known a lot trainers that had to make money off their wagers and had to have the odds up just in case they had to take a couple losses before they got one to win.
Your quote can be summarized by another “old timers” expression that went, “Well I guess it was his turn to win today?, Yeah, they’re always takin’ turns!”

Well, you’re right Jerry I have been around a few turns in this game. My first real year into it was back in 71’ when Canonero II won the Derby. The year, before I spent most of my time in between classes at college learning how to read the form. I just regret that there may never be another decade of racing like the 70’s.

Yeah, our memory starts to fail us at some point. But there are many exciting races I will never forget! In spite of all those races, I think the biggest thrill I ever got was just standing at the rail and watching Forego in his 3rd Marboro Cup starting that big closing move, coming 7-wide, around the turn into the stretch, to avoid traffic, and watching that thunderous stride driving home to win by a head over Honest Pleasure. Forego was some animal! Over 17 hands high with a measured stride length of 34 feet when closing down the stretch!

Talking about memory loss, a friend of mine says to me the other day,
“Hey you know I’m meeting new people everyday!
I said, “That’s great.”
He says, “Yeah, but the problem is I find out later that I’ve known them for years!!!”
You take care too and have a great weekend!

[gurulj]

Hey Jerry don’t feel bad, sometimes I feel like I’m preaching to the choir. (when they’re singing!) But you know how that goes! This whole game revolves around peoples opinions, and the convictions to bet on those opinions. You’ll find more disagreement about a race then just about anything, even among friends.

Your quote can be summarized by another “old timers” expression that went, “Well I guess it was his turn to win today?, Yeah, they’re always takin’ turns!”

Well, you’re right Jerry I have been around a few turns in this game. My first real year into it was back in 71’ when Canonero II won the Derby. The year, before I spent most of my time in between classes at college learning how to read the form. I just regret that there may never be another decade of racing like the 70’s.

Yeah, our memory starts to fail us at some point. But there are many exciting races I will never forget! In spite of all those races, I think the biggest thrill I ever got was just standing at the rail and watching Forego in his 3rd Marboro Cup starting that big closing move, coming 7-wide, around the turn into the stretch, to avoid traffic, and watching that thunderous stride driving home to win by a head over Honest Pleasure. Forego was some animal! Over 17 hands high with a measured stride length of 34 feet when closing down the stretch!

Talking about memory loss, a friend of mine says to me the other day,
“Hey you know I’m meeting new people everyday!
I said, “That’s great.”
He says, “Yeah, but the problem is I find out later that I’ve known them for years!!!”
You take care too and have a great weekend!

Yea don't know what we'd do without memories... Hope your weekend is great
also compadre!

Jerry

[toetoe]

I'm compadre'd out.

[Tote Master]

Hey toetoe, I’m sorry to hear that buddy!
Maybe you’d make more friends if you put a little more substance and less sarcasm in your “one-line” comments.
After all you’re not in Kansas anymore (or are you?).

Keep the faith pal, and best of luck.

[BeatTheChalk]

thanks

[toetoe]

ToteMaster,
I'm not proud of the sarcasm, I just don't like mediocrity sugar-coated with cutesy enclitics to make people think, "Hey, this guy called me his pal (rough equivalent of compadre), so maybe he really DOES have a stairway to the handicapping stars." I don't want to say, "Typical Kerryite" or "Neocons are all alike." I just want to know where's the beef. Far be it from me to ToteMaster-bait. I'll argue you on your method's merits, and no distractions and obfuscations, such as, "Beginners should be quiet if they can't say nice things, you're an amateur, ergo not fit to disagree, etc., etc."

[sq764]

thanks

2 Works Since Last Race

In my experience, an outstanding 'angle'.. Horses showing this usually are very sharp and ready.. From a trainer perspective it usually shows they are trying to win this race.

[Tote Master]

I'm not proud of the sarcasm, I just don't like mediocrity sugar-coated with cutesy enclitics to make people think, "Hey, this guy called me his pal (rough equivalent of compadre), so maybe he really DOES have a stairway to the handicapping stars." I don't want to say, "Typical Kerryite" or "Neocons are all alike." I just want to know where's the beef. Far be it from me to ToteMaster-bait. I'll argue you on your method's merits, and no distractions and obfuscations, such as, "Beginners should be quiet if they can't say nice things, you're an amateur, ergo not fit to disagree, etc., etc."
toetoe
I hear you and I agree with you to some extent. However, when I’ve never had an exchange of words with another, and they wish to freely express friendship of some sort based upon similar experiences, I have no problems with that. I’m not that cynical to believe that it’s done in jest or with sarcasm.

Are far as I’m concerned “the beef” is measured in results not in methodology. My results are driven by a thorough analysis of the tote board. I believe it to be the most powerful tool that I have ever found to determine true intentions. Whether others want to believe in its value is for them to decide. I certainly don’t perceive anyone that wants to improve their game by using an unorthodox approach as “bait”!

I’ve seen the results and I know what they’ve produced. Whether a so-called expert or even an amateur at this game posts skeptical remarks only shows me they’re limitations. Some minds are just set in concrete and it’s certainly much harder to show an old dog new tricks. To them I say, someday when you just can’t figure out why that long shot beat the top selections to the wire, maybe there was more at stake then they’re measly wager.

[toetoe]

In my tiny little wordplay, I was the "baiter." My bad for lack of clarity. Sarcasm, bad. Skepticism, GOOD! Something to be proud of.

[Zaf]

I downloaded the demo to take a look. I noticed in many races almost half the horses have some sort of angle. Are some more important than others ?

Can someone explain FPK, WIR, L60, 2211, L1 etc ???

Thanks.

ZAFONIC

[sq764]

FDK is a good longshot angle.. (Form Darkening)

[Zaf]

Thanks SQ.

Is WIR similiar to Jim Lehane's WIR ?

ZAFONIC

[sq764]

No, WIR is also a specific angle in PP.. Will email you privately

[midnight]

I never got an answer on this in the other forum, so I'll post it here.

I'm not trying to cause trouble, but I just re-read Jerry's "Secrets of Handicapping" (The E-Book he sells), and a LOT of the ideas in the book are almost exactly the same as a lot of the ones in Jon Worth's TIPS manual. Some of them even have the same names and acronyms as Worth's do. I have no clue who originated them, or if the originator knows that the other person is using them and/or consents to the same. What I did state was that it would be nice if Jerry checked in on this.

[BIG HIT]

I know that jerry let jim author of calibration handicapping frist book use some of his angle's jim acknowlege's this in his book.What angle's are you talking fdk\wir\ftc\2 wslr .?