🏃*♀️🏃🏃*♂️💨 #Whitney Day Rush

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/TheNYRA/status/1555872389061378048

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/jasonblewitt30/status/1555884006738202624

[Andy Asaro]

As far as the race goes the big two are the win candidates. Maybe Hot Rod Charlie catches a flyer and Prat sends to mess up Life Is Good? Doubtful that happens. Great race to watch but not so much to bet. GL



https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1555895932276813825

[Andy Asaro]

Click the link for the whole card

https://www.capitalotbhandicapping.com/index.php/cox-selections/item/4801-kevin-cox-saratoga-racecourse

Excerpt:


Race 10

1.Olympiad

2.American Revolution

3.Happy Saver

Abbreviated, but decently competitive rendition of the Whitney this year, and we'll give the slight edge to #4 OLYMPIAD. Mott charge has been a completely different animal since trying the two turn game, as he's never been any worse than second at any point of call in winning five straight. Fella has some positive familiarity with this oval also, & sheds 32 ounces off a tally -- which is something we always dig. #1 AMERICANREVOLUTION found the wire first in his one "third off the respite" heat, and it happened to occur right here in Togatown. #5 HAPPY SAVER has yet to miss a tri, and who are we to rock that boat ?

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/HorseRacing_USA/status/1555898190808989696

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

:1: Americanrevolution looks prime for a big race, but not sure it will be good enough.

Tough field and :6: Life Is Good looks to have a decided pace advantage and :4: Olympiad is in great form looking to win 6 straight.

[Michael]

Anyone have the current odds from across the pond? Kind of curious

Todd's quoted as saying LIG is in the 1% of his 1% horses... That's high praise.
The bet is Olympiad, but I personally wouldn't bet into the win pool.
(not my style)

[Andy Asaro]

:1: Americanrevolution looks prime for a big race, but not sure it will be good enough.

Tough field and :6: Life Is Good looks to have a decided pace advantage and :4: Olympiad is in great form looking to win 6 straight.

I tossed American Revolution cuz of the 7 pound weight swing in favor of Olympiad. I don't normally consider weights until it gets to a mile or longer. This one makes it tough on the 1. But good luck. Anything can happen

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

I tossed American Revolution cuz of the 7 pound weight swing in favor of Olympiad. I don't normally consider weights until it gets to a mile or longer. This one makes it tough on the 1. But good luck. Anything can happen

Sounds like the :1: is a likely scratch now. Hard to go against the :4: or :6: here either way.

5th race is interesting from a jockey standpoint. Grass stakes race with 2 Chad Brown entries and neither Ortiz brother is riding either of the two entries.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Anyone have the current odds from across the pond? Kind of curious

Todd's quoted as saying LIG is in the 1% of his 1% horses... That's high praise.
The bet is Olympiad, but I personally wouldn't bet into the win pool.
(not my style)

https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Saratoga/06-August-2022/2243

LIG looks to be a solid favorite at 11/10.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

We've been privileged to some great racing this summer. Yesterday was a bit disappointing.

Don't want to read too much into it though, thinking maybe the Toga track took its toll on a number of some pretty damn good horses. Track has been tiring all meet, and was probably exceptionally tough yesterday.

As they say "the graveyard of champions". Maybe need to give Life Is Good a big plus for gutting it out.

[Sheffwed]

We've been privileged to some great racing this summer. Yesterday was a bit disappointing.

Don't want to read too much into it though, thinking maybe the Toga track took its toll on a number of some pretty damn good horses. Track has been tiring all meet, and was probably exceptionally tough yesterday.

As they say "the graveyard of champions". Maybe need to give Life Is Good a big plus for gutting it out.


the Spa now has as deep a dirt surface as you'll find anywhere - and trainers are rightly complaining

this is what I mean about Saratoga succeeding despite NYRA, not because of it

maybe do some modern research and create a surface that's safer and not a quagmire that runs horses into the ground, so that every race doesn't feel like a stagger fest in the stretch

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

the Spa now has as deep a dirt surface as you'll find anywhere - and trainers are rightly complaining

this is what I mean about Saratoga succeeding despite NYRA, not because of it

maybe do some modern research and create a surface that's safer and not a quagmire that runs horses into the ground, so that every race doesn't feel like a stagger fest in the stretch

1:48.97. That field is way better and faster than that.

I hate when Churchill scrapes it to be pavement, but I also don't want really good horses running the final 3Fs in 39 seconds either.

[the little guy]

the Spa now has as deep a dirt surface as you'll find anywhere - and trainers are rightly complaining

this is what I mean about Saratoga succeeding despite NYRA, not because of it

maybe do some modern research and create a surface that's safer and not a quagmire that runs horses into the ground, so that every race doesn't feel like a stagger fest in the stretch

So now you are a more qualified Track Super than Glen Kozak. Your incredible genius knows no bounds.

[Andy Asaro]

So now you are a more qualified Track Super than Glen Kozak. Your incredible genius knows no bounds.

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1556292159455735808

[PaceAdvantage]

First they were scraping too much at NYRA on big days and killing horses (this was back in the day...and we all remember it)...now you guys are complaining it's too deep and horses are getting too tired...

They're right...all people do now is complain about EVERYTHING...and I mean EVERYTHING...

Taking whatever scrap of joy is left in this sport and just SUCKING it right out the window...

I blame twitter...lol

From announcers to analysts to track surfaces to questionable rides to whatever...complain complain complain complain complain complain

It's because y'all are losing your asses at the windows, right?

Complaining serves as a good distraction I suppose

[Jeff P]

The materials mix of the Saratoga dirt surface saw a change prior to the 2017 meet.

The following article from July 6, 2017 now sits behind a paywall. That wasn't the case when I read it a few weeks before opening day of the 2017 meet, and below is a partial quote.

TimesUnion.com | by Wendy Liberatore | July 6, 2017 | Updated: July 7, 2017 8 a.m.
NYRA upgrades track surface in advance of Saratoga racing season:
https://www.timesunion.com/local/article/NYRA-makes-upgrades-to-track-in-advance-of-racing-11270686.php

SARATOGA SPRINGS - The Saratoga Race Course is opening in two weeks. And in preparation, the track just underwent its annual makeovers including drainage upgrades to both the main and Oklahoma tracks as well as a revamped surface to main course to better pad the horses' hooves.

"We perform analysis and standard maintenance work on each racing surface at Saratoga throughout the year in the weeks leading up to the opening of Oklahoma Training Track and the main track," said Pat McKenna, director of communications for the New York Racing Association.

McKenna, who would not disclose the cost of the upgrades, said this year's maintenance included regrading and updating the inner and outer rail drainage ditches at both tracks. NYRA also added cushion to the main track only with a combination of sand and clay.

I bolded the last sentence because I think it's important if you are trying to understand track bias.

Clay holds on to moisture a lot longer than sand and topsoil.

For the 2016 and prior meets the Saratoga dirt surface seemed to dry out quickly, and speed was the universal bias (at least based on historical win rates of early pace factors in my databases.)

Starting with the 2017 meet:

The track bias for the dirt surface changed.

Speed has done reasonably well PROVIDED the dirt surface is completely dry.

But after a rain, it takes longer to dry out than it previously did.

And until that happens, the track is more tiring than it previously was.

I'm not saying the old surface was better or anything like that.

What I am saying is that every track surface is unique.

The materials mix, track maintenance, and weather all play a part in shaping track bias.




-jp
.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

First they were scraping too much at NYRA on big days and killing horses (this was back in the day...and we all remember it)...now you guys are complaining it's too deep and horses are getting too tired...

They're right...all people do now is complain about EVERYTHING...and I mean EVERYTHING...

Taking whatever scrap of joy is left in this sport and just SUCKING it right out the window...

I blame twitter...lol

From announcers to analysts to track surfaces to questionable rides to whatever...complain complain complain complain complain complain

It's because y'all are losing your asses at the windows, right?

Complaining serves as a good distraction I suppose

Just an observation PA.

I won yesterday. Somehow.

Track at Toga has been tiring, and slow. Facts prove that. It is a factor one has to take into consideration of handicapping races this meet. Good, bad, or indifferent it has to be acknowledged.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

The materials mix of the Saratoga dirt surface saw a change prior to the 2017 meet.

The following article from July 6, 2017 now sits behind a paywall. That wasn't the case when I read it a few weeks before opening day of the 2017 meet, and below is a partial quote.

TimesUnion.com | by Wendy Liberatore | July 6, 2017 | Updated: July 7, 2017 8 a.m.
NYRA upgrades track surface in advance of Saratoga racing season:
https://www.timesunion.com/local/article/NYRA-makes-upgrades-to-track-in-advance-of-racing-11270686.php



I bolded the last sentence because I think it's important if you are trying to understand track bias.

Clay holds on to moisture a lot longer than sand and topsoil.

For the 2016 and prior meets the Saratoga dirt surface seemed to dry out quickly, and speed was the universal bias (at least based on historical win rates of early pace factors in my databases.)

Starting with the 2017 meet:

The track bias for the dirt surface changed.

Speed has done reasonably well PROVIDED the dirt surface is completely dry.

But after a rain, it takes longer to dry out than it previously did.

And until that happens, the track is more tiring than it previously was.

I'm not saying the old surface was better or anything like that.

What I am saying is that every track surface is unique.

The materials mix, track maintenance, and weather all play a part in shaping track bias.




-jp
.

Thanks JP. That is very interesting.

2016 Arrogate set a track record at 10F in 1:59.36 in the Travers.

[PaceAdvantage]

Just an observation PA.

I won yesterday. Somehow.

Track at Toga has been tiring, and slow. Facts prove that. It is a factor one has to take into consideration of handicapping races this meet. Good, bad, or indifferent it has to be acknowledged.Acknowledging is one thing...judging it to be some god-awful freak of nature is another

[Sheffwed]

Acknowledging is one thing...judging it to be some god-awful freak of nature is another


Who said it was a freak of nature?

And I'm doing just fine with my wagering, thank you very much, and I don't hear a lot of whining here from others either

Would it be so hard to constantly think about how to improve the surface?

Or is just "I'll look into it" after it becomes practically Captain Obvious that it should be looked into

I guess that's leading practice, not just another case of Saratoga succeeding regardless of NYRA

[Tom]

They should use the turf temporary rails on dirt, adjust when the rail is dead or golden to even things out. :cool:

btw, we were talking here in around 2007 that the horses were struggling home in the stretch of 9 furlong races. Been a lot of pretty good horses strugglimg home the last 15 years.

[PaceAdvantage]

Who said it was a freak of nature?

And I'm doing just fine with my wagering, thank you very much, and I don't hear a lot of whining here from others either

Would it be so hard to constantly think about how to improve the surface?

Or is just "I'll look into it" after it becomes practically Captain Obvious that it should be looked into

I guess that's leading practice, not just another case of Saratoga succeeding regardless of NYRAPeople complained for a decade+ about the scraping...now that they don't scrape anymore on the big days to get the super-fast times, the complaining has changed to "it's too deep"

Like I said...always complaining about something

[Andy Asaro]

People complained for a decade+ about the scraping...now that they don't scrape anymore on the big days to get the super-fast times, the complaining has changed to "it's too deep"

Like I said...always complaining about something

Wasn't just people it was some high profile Trainers.

https://www.drf.com/news/some-trainers-feel-saratogas-main-track-rail-too-deep

[PaceAdvantage]

Wasn't just people it was some high profile Trainers.Their complaints are usually even more suspect then the ordinary Joe's...

I'm just sad "cuppy track" doesn't seem to get used anywhere near as often as an excuse these days...that was a fun one.

[the little guy]

Wasn't just people it was some high profile Trainers.

https://www.drf.com/news/some-trainers-feel-saratogas-main-track-rail-too-deep

Who was the "high profile trainer" besides Todd?

[Andy Asaro]

Who was the "high profile trainer" besides Todd?

Give it up. You were wrong. No need to move sideways.

[the little guy]

Give it up. You were wrong. No need to move sideways.

I'm not wrong and I want to know who the high profile trainer was besides Todd. It's a fair question given your claim.

There wasn't one, that's why you deflected.

You have little to no idea what actually goes on here. You can pretend you do all you want, apparently that's what the internet is for, but it doesn't change things.

[BarchCapper]

I'm not wrong and I want to know who the high profile trainer was besides Todd. It's a fair question given your claim.

There wasn't one, that's why you deflected.

You have little to no idea what actually goes on here. You can pretend you do all you want, apparently that's what the internet is for, but it doesn't change things.

For semantics' and clarity's sake, if AA had said "Wasn't just people, it was *a* high profile trainer" or "it was some trainers [article headline], including a pretty high profile one" what tack does the response thread take? To be fair, the response above does seem to deflect in the other direction a little, as if Todd Pletcher saying what he did isn't noteworthy or weighty at all vis-a-vis the internet whinings of a few of us BDHs (old Dave Feldman readers, anyone?).

I think we all know that track maintenance is a tricky thing with constantly changing conditions and there are some pretty impressive track men out there - Glen Kozak being one of the best. I think we also know the input of trainers in these matters isn't ignored. Maybe that is all that needs to be said.

[Karakorum Kabbage]

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Mig


https://twitter.com/1GR8FULGUY/status/1556341272356556803

[the little guy]

For semantics' and clarity's sake, if AA had said "Wasn't just people, it was *a* high profile trainer" or "it was some trainers [article headline], including a pretty high profile one" what tack does the response thread take? To be fair, the response above does seem to deflect in the other direction a little, as if Todd Pletcher saying what he did isn't noteworthy or weighty at all vis-a-vis the internet whinings of a few of us BDHs (old Dave Feldman readers, anyone?).

I think we all know that track maintenance is a tricky thing with constantly changing conditions and there are some pretty impressive track men out there - Glen Kozak being one of the best. I think we also know the input of trainers in these matters isn't ignored. Maybe that is all that needs to be said.

I understand you are trying to be "the nice guy" and that's cool. I also don't have a problem with Andy. I think his enthusiasm is great. He and I don't have to agree. Who cares if we do or not. The point here is that one extremely legitimate voice, Todd Pletcher, voiced some reasonable questions and planned to talk to Glen. I'm confident they had a productive conversation.

Let's not pretend I had not read Grening's article before ever posting in this thread. That would be preposterous. Let's also not pretend that I am unaware of the entire situation. That would be even more ridiculous. The problem is a constant "chicken little" attitude here, and on social media, that does nothing to help and much to hurt. It's a preponderance of false information inflaming situations ( and I'm not talking about just racing ).

[Andy Asaro]

I'm not wrong and I want to know who the high profile trainer was besides Todd. It's a fair question given your claim.

There wasn't one, that's why you deflected.

You have little to no idea what actually goes on here. You can pretend you do all you want, apparently that's what the internet is for, but it doesn't change things.

Look, your petty bullshit is tiresome. You come on here and belittle people all the the time and when you're wrong you don't want to admit so you go on and on about bullshit. The people who you gave a hard time to probably read the same article. Give it up with this nonsense

[Andy Asaro]

For semantics' and clarity's sake, if AA had said "Wasn't just people, it was *a* high profile trainer" or "it was some trainers [article headline], including a pretty high profile one" what tack does the response thread take? To be fair, the response above does seem to deflect in the other direction a little, as if Todd Pletcher saying what he did isn't noteworthy or weighty at all vis-a-vis the internet whinings of a few of us BDHs (old Dave Feldman readers, anyone?).

I think we all know that track maintenance is a tricky thing with constantly changing conditions and there are some pretty impressive track men out there - Glen Kozak being one of the best. I think we also know the input of trainers in these matters isn't ignored. Maybe that is all that needs to be said.

Forget it with this guy. He gets off on pettiness. The guy is a top on air analyst on a national show and he has some need to belittle people all the time. It's unbelievable really

[the little guy]

Look, your petty bullshit is tiresome. You come on here and belittle people all the the time and when you're wrong you don't want to admit so you go on and on about bullshit. The people who you gave a hard time to probably read the same article. Give it up with this nonsense

I don't belittle people in the slightest. In fact, I do the opposite. You are lashing out because you don't like when people with credibility call out your BS. You know this, I know this, and so do MANY others.

Rock on Andy.

[Andy Asaro]

I don't belittle people in the slightest. In fact, I do the opposite. You are lashing out because you don't like when people with credibility call out your BS. You know this, I know this, and so do MANY others.

Rock on Andy.

Post of the year. You can't make it up

[classhandicapper]

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. -- Some horsemen have expressed concern with Saratoga’s main track, specifically that the inside is too deep in the stretch, but is not that way on the backside.

Setting aside the debate about the track, I thought this was far and away the most valuable sentence in the article for horseplayers. In almost every discussion about bias here and on Twitter for the last GOD knows how many years I always make a point of saying that tracks aren’t uniform. IMO you should think of biases in terms of sections of the track. I think an endless number of biases are missed or misdiagnosed because people think in terms of the rail being uniform around the track. I typically think in terms of the turn and stretch as separate components and find plenty of days where I think the turn is clearly biased but the stretch is not. However, over the years I’ve even seen days where the turn seems neutral and the stretch is heavily biased. It happens. And as gamblers, IMO it’s worth the extra time.

[Andy Asaro]

I thought this was far and away the most valuable sentence in the article for horseplayers. In almost every discussion about bias here and on Twitter for the last GOD knows how many years I always make a point of saying that tracks aren’t uniform. IMO you should think of biases in terms of sections of the track. I think an endless number of biases are missed or misdiagnosed because people think in terms of the rail being uniform around the track. I typically think in terms of the turn and stretch as separate components and find loads of days where the turn is clearly biased but the stretch is not. However, over the years I’ve seen days where the turn seems neutral and the stretch is heavily biased.

At Saratoga with all the weather they have it's almost impossible to keep it consistent. I guess the best thing to do when you hear this is to upgrade horses who ran during that period against the bias.

[classhandicapper]

At Saratoga with all the weather they have it's almost impossible to keep it consistent. I guess the best thing to do when you hear this is to upgrade horses who ran during that period against the bias.

As long as the track is safe I’m OK with occasionally biases, fast tracks, slow tracks etc… NYRA’s record on safety is great.

I’m a horseplayer. I don’t mind biases, especially if people misdiagnose what was actually going on on a specific day. It creates potential betting opportunities with real value as long as I don’t screw up too often myself. :lol:

The only downside from my perspective as a fan is that I like to see top horses separate themselves without the track being a factor. But even when a track is especially hard and fast, deep and slow, biased etc.. the truly great ones show it by winning and running fast despite the track. That’s one way we know they are great.

[PaceAdvantage]

Post of the year. You can't make it upIs it possible to belittle someone who actually deserves it?

Therefore, is it actually belittling? I think not.

[Sheffwed]

Post of the year. You can't make it up

Imagine if NYRA had a smart, nice women in the role of lead handicapper at Saratoga

Would be better than that ridiculous Best Housewives promotion they had, and a real way to appeal to an important demographic at Saratoga and show they were more with the times

How many people would qualify with a blank piece of paper?

Caton Bradar comes to mind, Gabby Gaudet would be perfect, I could go on

But no, we get the 2nd Avenue Deli

[Andy Asaro]

Imagine if NYRA had a smart, nice women in the role of lead handicapper at Saratoga

Would be better than that ridiculous Best Housewives promotion they had, and a real way to appeal to an important demographic at Saratoga and show they were more with the times

How many people would qualify with a blank piece of paper?

Caton Bradar comes to mind, Gabby Gaudet would be perfect, I could go on

But no, we get the 2nd Avenue Deli

:lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Imagine if NYRA had a smart, nice women in the role of lead handicapper at Saratoga

Would be better than that ridiculous Best Housewives promotion they had, and a real way to appeal to an important demographic at Saratoga and show they were more with the times

How many people would qualify with a blank piece of paper?

Caton Bradar comes to mind, Gabby Gaudet would be perfect, I could go on

But no, we get the 2nd Avenue DeliBINGO

There it is

That's EXACTLY why Andy gets most of the shit he gets

Because he's Jewish

THANK YOU for being not only anti-Semitic, but honest as well. It's a breath of fresh air all the other Serling haters could stand to live up to...but they don't have the meaty balls like you do.

[Andy Asaro]

BINGO

There it is

That's EXACTLY why Andy gets most of the shit he gets

Because he's Jewish

THANK YOU for being not only anti-Semitic, but honest as well. It's a breath of fresh air all the other Serling haters could stand to live up to...but they don't have the meaty balls like you do.

I thought he was referring to Stabile.

[PaceAdvantage]

:lol:You're one of the most guilty.

[Andy Asaro]

You're one of the most guilty.

Most guilty of what?

[PaceAdvantage]

I thought he was referring to Stabile.Why would the 2nd ave KOSHER deli be referring to ANTHONY STABILE?

You guys provide great laughter to my day here...thank you

[Andy Asaro]

Why would then 2nd ave kosher deli be referring to ANTHONY STABILE?

Out here a Deli can be owned run by anyone. Don't imply that I'm anti-Semitic

[PaceAdvantage]

Out here a Deli can be owned run by anyone. Don't imply that I'm anti-SemiticGoogle 2nd ave deli and tell me what comes up first

[PaceAdvantage]

Allow me:

"An Authentic Jewish Culinary Experience"

You guys can all go fuck yourselves...now and forever

[Sheffwed]

BINGO

There it is

That's EXACTLY why Andy gets most of the shit he gets

Because he's Jewish

THANK YOU for being not only anti-Semitic, but honest as well. It's a breath of fresh air all the other Serling haters could stand to live up to...but they don't have the meaty balls like you do.


What are you talking about?

I praised Harvey Pack in the same post who I'm pretty sure was also Jewish

the 2nd Avenue Deli was known for serving great sandwiches and a side order of guaranteed rudeness

[PaceAdvantage]

Refer to my last post

[Sheffwed]

Refer to my last post


I suppose it was a somewhat dated reference, apologies for the confusion

But the 2nd Avenue Deli was famous for rude waiters and waitresses (and very good food)

[Andy Asaro]

Google 2nd ave deli and tell me what comes up first

Why would I look it up 2nd avenue deli? There's more Italian Deli's out here than Jewish Deli's.

[Andy Asaro]

Allow me:

"An Authentic Jewish Culinary Experience"

You guys can all go fuck yourselves...now and forever

You can do the same to yourself.

[PaceAdvantage]

Why would I look it up 2nd avenue deli? There's more Italian Deli's out here than Jewish Deli's.Continue to be your own worst supporter

[Andy Asaro]

Continue to be your own worst supporter

That applies to you a lot more than it does to me. Take your own advice

[BarchCapper]

I'm from NYC, but living in Arkansas - can you guys please quit centering this battle around delis? I'm STARVING right now!!!!!!! :pout:

[PaceAdvantage]

That applies to you a lot more than it does to me. Take your own adviceActually it doesn't.

You see, my goal isn't to promote myself as much as possible, unlike some around here.

I couldn't care less, actually.

Which is why I get to freely express my opinion. And if it pisses people off, so be it. The more the better.

[Andy Asaro]

Actually it doesn't.

You see, my goal isn't to promote myself as much as possible, unlike some around here.

I couldn't care less, actually.

Which is why I get to freely express my opinion. And if it pisses people off, so be it. The more the better.

Who is promoting themselves? And to what end?

[HorsemenHeist]

It's now obvious that something is amiss with the track.... yet another breakdown in Thursday's opener, right in front of the stands too.