Rolling Vulnerable Chalk thread for Saratoga and Del Mar. Need reasons why vulnerable

[Andy Asaro]

Thread might help us all make some money this summer.

Saratoga opening Day Thursday, July 14 First Post 1:05pm


Del Mar opening Day Friday July 22nd. First post 2pm

[pic6vic]

Don't play outside horses in 5F turf sprints. If favorite play against

[hopbet]

PIC6VIC,
Which track ( Saratoga or Del Mar ) or both?

[Andy Asaro]

PIC6VIC,
Which track ( Saratoga or Del Mar ) or both?

At Santa Anita and Del Mar turf sprints (other than the downhill at Santa Anita) it is an extreme disadvantage to go three wide or further around the turn. These tracks are not banked enough and the turns are much tighter than Saratoga or Belmont. They were not designed for turn sprints

[hopbet]

Andy,
Thanks



HOPBET

[pic6vic]

DELMAR

Andy said it best

[Robert Fischer]

At Santa Anita and Del Mar turf sprints (other than the downhill at Santa Anita) it is an extreme disadvantage to go three wide or further around the turn. These tracks are not banked enough and the turns are much tighter than Saratoga or Belmont. They were not designed for turn sprints

interesting.

I've accepted the fact that I'm Not Good at Turf Sprints.
Once in a blue moon I have an extreme trip or opinion, but for some reason these races are usually tough for me.

[Redboard]

interesting.

I've accepted the fact that I'm Not Good at Turf Sprints.
Once in a blue moon I have an extreme trip or opinion, but for some reason these races are usually tough for me.

Me too Robert.
Will someone please explain to me how to handicap a turf sprint? (Not talking about the downhill course in SA,which is another universe.)

[pic6vic]

As Andy explained. The outside posts are at a disadvantage. One must look at replays too see which horses ran sprints at SA and DLM, if they were wide and now draw a better post it helps. Also look where the runners ran on the course, lots of your winners and in the money horses raced on the rail, but not necessarily on the lead. It does take some looking at replays

GOOD LUCK

[elhelmete]

The turf thing to follow is horses who handle going from/to the *6.5 downhill course from/to a 1mile on the turf. Those used to be pretty good overlays to crush.
Horses moving from/to Turf sprints from DMR (and back in the day HOL) to/from the *6.5f used to be underlays, and in my memory underperformed.

[theiman]

At DM last summer(2021) there was 105 starters that ran in turf sprints, starting from posts 7-12. Only 4 of those horses won the race they were in. There were a total of 40 turf sprints at the meet.

At DM last fall(2021), smaller sample. There were 19 total turf sprints.
Posts 7-12 posted 1 win out of 44 horses that started from those posts for turf sprints.

[Andy Asaro]

At DM last summer(2021) there was 105 starters that ran in turf sprints, starting from posts 7-12. Only 4 of those horses won the race they were in. There were a total of 40 turf sprints at the meet.

At DM last fall(2021), smaller sample. There were 19 total turf sprints.
Posts 7-12 posted 1 win out of 44 horses that started from those posts for turf sprints.

Thanks. Love it

[AndyC]

I get it that starting outside in a turf sprint at DM is not the best place to be. To me, the most important factor is whether or not a horse is overbet. To summarily say that a favorite will be overbet as a result of drawing an outside post is certainly not an assumption I would base my betting decisions on. I don't believe that many serious handicappers betting large amounts of money are unaware of the post position bias. The odds should, in most cases, reflect the bias.

[classhandicapper]

The odds should, in most cases, reflect the bias.

That’s the problem with most popular handicapping tools and insights. If you got it out of a book, on a forum, or on TV etc.. it’s unlikely to be profitable even if it’s true (and it’s not even always true :lol:).

[Robert Fischer]

if I'm looking at the main concepts, there's maybe only like 8-15 of them, and maybe a handful that apply significantly to a given race.

and say PROJECTED(today's)BIAS is one of them...

What I want, is several of them moving in the same direction.

he's got a problematic post draw, and I understand how the bias works and that it likely applies to this race.

He's also getting bet for 3 of the field's bigger recent figures, but they were all DREAMTRIPS that he isn't expected to get today...

now I've got two models moving in the same direction, and I've got his odds being the lowest (call that a third model), so there is some value potential.

But it has to be a case where the public is misjudging the situation. You strongly disagree with the public. Not a case with tradeoffs or flat out more significant opposing things that are greatly in his favor, and he's getting bet in spite of those vulnerable looking things.

For example, if his CLASS and SPEED is so much better than this weak field (models moving in the wrong direction) that the money is saying that he'll win in spite of these vulnerable factors.

:12: Big Brown had a terrible post in the 2008 Florida Derby, and there was a decent pace expected, and was fairly likely to be a somewhat wide into a hard pace with the short run to the first turn, but $5.00 to win on him wasn't a big underlay.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/TheNYRA/status/1546461954306351105

[burnsy]

Me too Robert.
Will someone please explain to me how to handicap a turf sprint? (Not talking about the downhill course in SA,which is another universe.)

The over whelming factor is the early pace and if a horse gets clear. This is no where an exact science. You have to accept that you’ll be wrong many times. But here’s the thing about those races. When you are right , and it’s against the grain. In other words the money is the opposite of what you actually think will happen. Huge dividend! It only takes two or three of those at a Saratoga meet to make a big difference.

Another factor is the weather and turf conditions. This is why I love grass wagering. When that course is hard and firm. Less rain. Speed is very dangerous. Lone speed where jockeys are holding back . Even more so. Just look at that Belmont Derby. Perfect example of an overlay. Classic Causeway comes in from the Derby showing speed his entire career. Bred for the switch! Hard turf. We are in semi drought conditions this summer. 26 to mf’ing 1……. Bye bye bye. If this weather trend continues. I can promise all of you there will be more of these in Saratoga. I play exactas and sometimes it feels too easy because many of these don’t make it but hold on for second.

Chad Brown had one on Belmont day. Same exact deal! Tribhuvan

[AndyC]

if I'm looking at the main concepts, there's maybe only like 8-15 of them, and maybe a handful that apply significantly to a given race.

and say PROJECTED(today's)BIAS is one of them...

What I want, is several of them moving in the same direction........


Agree. Finding overbet horses is usually multi-factorial and not a function of looking at just one historically known variable.

[jefftune]

Me too Robert.
Will someone please explain to me how to handicap a turf sprint? (Not talking about the downhill course in SA,which is another universe.)

Saratoga winning running styles for 5 1/2 turf sprints.
Last 5 years.

Wire - 35%
Stalk - 44%
Rally - 21%

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1546847036347076614

[Andy Asaro]

For me Saratoga is tough today and I won't make a bet. And I like the 1 in the 9th race who is the favorite. Tons of pace in the race and this filly should get a good trip.

HOWEVER

It is likely that a couple of others in here don't need the lead either cuz one race only isn't enough to establish a style IMO.


Can't bet the 1 at a short price. 6-1 or higher yes. 5-2 NO

Good luck today

[Andy Asaro]

For me Saratoga is tough today and I won't make a bet. And I like the 1 in the 9th race who is the favorite. Tons of pace in the race and this filly should get a good trip.

HOWEVER

It is likely that a couple of others in here don't need the lead either cuz one race only isn't enough to establish a style IMO.


Can't bet the 1 at a short price. 6-1 or higher yes. 5-2 NO

Good luck today

Just watched the video of last race. Didn't break sharp and overcame adversity to win going away. Likely Irad will send and that could get him caught in a duel. But very impressive first out IMO

[Robert Fischer]

just gonna post my day's here, I'll probably be following along, but may not be in this thread all day. Interested in what you guys post.


7/14 (Thursday day 1 of meet)


Two races caught my eye. Both happen to be in sequence, so maybe that calls for a DD or extended pick-multi.


Race7 - :1: Goddess of Fire - 3/1 and may well not be 'chalk' as far as the lowest favorite or as a popular heavy favorite, but she's a chalk.
She's a fine filly, and she fits in this race. A few factors going on. First; she does draw the rail, and I think that :4:Angitude 8/1 will take a big swing here on the lead, :7:Tarabi is fine tracking the speed, and even uncoupled stablemate :6:Favor is a rival. More of a case of a lot of competition for a low-priced popular horse than some fatal 'flaw'.
Also a look back shows that in spite of the pretty form leading up to the Oaks attempt, Goddess of Fire was never a highly touted filly, running at odds of 13/1, 10/1, 15/1 before being 8/5 vs. 2/5 Kathleen O.
If she's 3/1 she's worth directly opposing with a couple wagers. If she's less than say third choice or so she's worth tossing out of tickets unless paired with real value in other legs.


Race8 - :1:Canisy-4/1 and :3:Myriskyaffair-7/2 tossing both Clement horses here in this turf allowance. While both are bad underlays, and enough reason to put another horse on top (and maybe in a Double with a filly like Angitude from r7), they are fine to include if you have some great price play in this race or other legs.
:1:Canisy -7/2- 2-back she broke MSW on debut at 15/1 odds. Last race she took more money, but it was a weird allowance race with a slow pace that yet fell apart late. Depending on how you read that race, you could have varying opinions. A 24-1 Robert Falcone horse won with a last-move (:12: Linda's Gift in today's field exits that same race, with the same trip but is 10/ml today).
:3:Myriskyaffair-7/2 - three races ago she was 12/1 in a KEE MSW. Then the next race she goes in a sloppy off the turf race with only four rivals and breaks her maden at 4/5 odds. Last race she's in a Stakes race and runs 2nd, but she did zero running and managed to grind out a late 2nd to the Chad Brown runner who made a run and won the race. It wasn't some impressive stakes 2nd.

Lot's of other ways to go in race 8... the most obvious is the :6:Customer List - visually impressive winning MSW Monmouth first time out while earning a lower Beyer. 2nd time start was 2/1 in the Penn Oaks and stumbled at the start. Today makes her 3rd start. If the morning line is accurate and this :6: is actually fourth-choice and around 6/1 that's all you would focus into.

If the :6: is co-favorite, you could pass, key with others aside from Clement's uncoupled duo of underlays, or get fancier. :4: Missy Greer -15/1- is one such long shot. Flying P stables is very good with career bests on stamina extension, and the :4: projects to be loose pace in here.

Another long shot in the 8th is the :9: Candy Light 15/1ml for Graham Motion. -Debut race visually impressive turn of foot turf sprint. , 2nd lifetime race '4/5' Odds in a 6f MSW Turf Aqueduct. She then jumped right into three grueling 1M 2nd-finish line dirt races at Laurel, with her 3rd racing facing off against Luna Belle. Last race she was a 36/1 long shot in the Black Eyed Susan. She then was back to Fair Hill training for Saratoga turf races like this.
I don't love here but she's a better price include than the :1: or :3:.

I'd advise watching today's "Talking Horses" segment w/ Serling. See if he hads anything on some of these or others I haven't mentioned.

It may just be Chad Brown at 5/2-7/2 range for the :6:, but this race has some potential.


good luck all, enjoy the festivities, hope to read your vulnerable chalk through the Sar/DelMar meets

[Redboard]

Race 5: :2: Catching Cupid (class-dropper) is currently 7-1 on the board. Down from 7/2 ML. This is a state bred maiden claiming. The lowest of the low.
The current favorites :4: & :3: are dropping in class too just like Cupid but are 5/2. It's a race like this you pick the value.

The turf courses looks fabulous. Must have been some major rains leading up to opening day. Let's go SPA!

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1547731179146661889

[1st time lasix]

Toga race 3. Four horse Bondi2-1 morning line. Blinkers off- has quit in lane last two tries… prefer four others. Will not be “using”in early pick five Bond and Saez connections guarantees NY bred will take too much money IMO

[Andy Asaro]

Toga race 3. Four horse Bondi2-1 morning line. Blinkers off- has quit in lane last two tries… prefer four others. Will not be “using”in early pick five Bond and Saez connections guarantees NY bred will take too much money IMO

I agree. Gonna end up using 1 and 3. The 3 was a no try last time. Will probably be tough with a clean trip tomorrow.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/brooklyncowboy1/status/1546031692032479233

[the little guy]

I agree. Gonna end up using 1 and 3. The 3 was a no try last time. Will probably be tough with a clean trip tomorrow.

It wasn't "no try" as Jose got completely buried in traffic. There is ZERO chance he didn't want to win that race.

[Andy Asaro]

It wasn't "no try" as Jose got completely buried in traffic. There is ZERO chance he didn't want to win that race.

I'll meet you half way on it. There was a point where he could have angled out and didn't but yes mostly buried.


Anyway, pretty sure we'll see a big effort in this spot. GL

[the little guy]

I'll meet you half way on it. There was a point where he could have angled out and didn't but yes mostly buried.


Anyway, pretty sure we'll see a big effort in this spot. GL

You can meet anywhere you want. You're wrong. But believe whatever makes you happy.

It's not all chicanery. In fact, it almost never is.

[Robert Fischer]

was bad luck, buried with nowhere to go

is no guarantee to win today, either.

can see that this is a nice animal. Abreu is a good trainer who was a Brown assistant for nine years. Debuted once (duh), ok debuted last nov 2yo towards end Aqu turf, and wasn't abused, but did gallop out to the lead after starting twelfth in a race whose Tri went 1-2-3 around the track.
That layoff following the 2yo is not ultra promising. Bright side is that he came back in time to win a Belmont maiden and face allowance at the Spa if health held up well. Unfortunately caught traffic instead. It actually ends up working out, where he faces this group of unspectacular maidens, and he should be unphased by the bottled up effort.

You can look at the colt, and see that he's handsome and looks good into stride. Hopefully works a better trip and contends, and hopefully isn't himself favored.

https://twitter.com/jason_kassa/status/1547783842936762371

I do agree with Asaro and 1st Time Lasix on one one thing; Biondi doesn't seem to be the strongest favorite. At least Biondi is projected forward.



In the very next race (r4) today, I kind of like another horse who also had bad luck in a trip last time.

:6: Just Like This seemed to be either blocked, or there were a few riders who misjudged the pace. Floki's Flight went to the lead that day, and on the replay while the break was relatively quick, it was a moderate pace. However the :6: and others were on a hold in a conservative turf style. Floki capitalized by contending (Irad eventually carried momentum to overtake late), but our(royal 'our', I admit it's just me here) featured Just Like This merely ran a solid even finish.
Mildly interesting trip, but not some amazing price today. Yes it's Saratoga and the purse and spotlight and ego are bigger on this stage, but race 4 has some horses running for $20k who have big purchase prices.

[Bustin Stones]

The last thing I want to do is debate whether the mother knew her child was molested. I read that she admitted it was her boy friend. I falsely concluded that it meant she knew that the child was being molested.

[CheckMark]

SAR 7/15/22

Race 2 :2: 2-1

Race 3 :4: 2-1

Both of these horses I don't think will win today (have them finishing 4th and 3rd respectively)

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Not sure there isn't a favorite today to NOT bet against outside of horizontal wagers.

Amazingly hard card today, and the turf races in the 6th, 8th, and 9th are phenomenal. Can easily see the P6 carrying over again.

[Andy Asaro]

You can meet anywhere you want. You're wrong. But believe whatever makes you happy.

It's not all chicanery. In fact, it almost never is.

I did not say chicanery. And you are the one who is wrong

[Robert Fischer]

Not sure there isn't a favorite today to NOT bet against outside of horizontal wagers.

Amazingly hard card today, and the turf races in the 6th, 8th, and 9th are phenomenal. Can easily see the P6 carrying over again.

These are good races.

The sixth is sort of interesting on pace. I'm gonna try to dig into that before a Dr. appt.

The 9th, it feels like Public Sector may be 4/1. Set Piece is thriving.

[Andy Asaro]

https://www.capitalotbhandicapping.com/index.php/cox-selections/item/4779-kevin-cox-saratoga-racecourse


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 10 - #2 Rossa Veloce

[Andy Asaro]

I agree. Gonna end up using 1 and 3. The 3 was a no try last time. Will probably be tough with a clean trip tomorrow.

WHISTLER'S HONOR wins going wide the whole way. Can move up again next time IMO. The thread is paying off. Lets keep it going.

https://twitter.com/DRFGrening/status/1548010395675176961


And hat's off to this guy for alerting me to watch the race.

Go Jason
https://twitter.com/jason_kassa/status/1547783842936762371?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1547783842936762371%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.paceadvantage.com%2Fforum %2Fshowthread.php%3Fp%3D2817331post2817331

[Boomer]

Agree on the thread. Played a cold punch :1::3: DD and got $16 with 2 faves.


Thanks all

[ranchwest]

https://www.capitalotbhandicapping.com/index.php/cox-selections/item/4779-kevin-cox-saratoga-racecourse


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 10 - #2 Rossa Veloce

And I hope they bet it to the moon.

[Robert Fischer]

WHISTLER'S HONOR wins going wide the whole way. Can move up again next time IMO. The thread is paying off. Lets keep it going.

https://twitter.com/DRFGrening/status/1548010395675176961


And hat's off to this guy for alerting me to watch the race.

Go Jason
https://twitter.com/jason_kassa/status/1547783842936762371?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1547783842936762371%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.paceadvantage.com%2Fforum %2Fshowthread.php%3Fp%3D2817331post2817331

Thanks man.

just got back from a long boring dr visit, which made very little progress, and I happened to start having severe flu-like symptoms shivering in the hot car...

This race changed my outlook for the better (more comfortable, optimistic), and forget the shout-out stuff - I'm grateful to have a few (or more as more and more players reach out to share opinions on Toga/Delmar) fellow players to debate races that catch the eye.

Nice job Asaro.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Not sure there isn't a favorite today to NOT bet against outside of horizontal wagers.

Amazingly hard card today, and the turf races in the 6th, 8th, and 9th are phenomenal. Can easily see the P6 carrying over again.

At least I was right about one thing, the P6 will carry over.

[Andy Asaro]

So, I was the only ticket alive to the 9 who got pretty good action. I don't think the starter let the 9 set properly but I can't say for sure. I know the 9 would have been on or near the lead with a clean break. Between the P4, P5, and P6 would have been over 700K. Eff me

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

So, I was the only ticket alive to the 9 who got pretty good action. I don't think the starter let the 9 set properly but I can't say for sure. I know the 9 would have been on or near the lead with a clean break. Between the P4, P5, and P6 would have been over 700K. Eff me

Ok. Show the ticket. You are adept in this digital age, so such a ticket you could easily show us all.

[Andy Asaro]

Ok. Show the ticket. You are adept in this digital age, so such a ticket you could easily show us all.

You can take my word for it or not.

Was a $756 ticket with 9 singled in the last

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/DRFGrening/status/1548076970985934849

[RunDustyRun]

Ticket Number:
Date:
Graded Date:
Description:
Status
Amount
Type:
To win
TICKET WAGER
DETAILS
Transaction Receipt

07/15/2022
07/15/2022
Saratoga - Race #6 $ 0.5 Pick 5 (2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11 / 2, 3, 4, 5,
6, 9 / 11 / 7, 8, 10 / 2, 3, 9)
Racebook
Won
$162.00
$9,833.75

Here's a winning ticket...good luck to all...

[Andy Asaro]

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #1 Never Change

https://www.capitalotbhandicapping.com/index.php/cox-selections/item/4780-kevin-cox-saratoga-racecourse

[1st time lasix]

Possible vulnerable favorite in race 2 at Spa. ( 4-Quick Money) Took seven races to break maiden when dropped to claiming ranks. Going against winners for first time. Has quit before when pressured …. The 1..2…3… and 6 all prefer to go early suggesting a potential duel up front. Working fast however … will see.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1548300685468348419

[Robert Fischer]

Possible vulnerable favorite in race 2 at Spa. ( 4-Quick Money) Took seven races to break maiden when dropped to claiming ranks. Going against winners for first time. Has quit before when pressured …. The 1..2…3… and 6 all prefer to go early suggesting a potential duel up front. Working fast however … will see.

good factors

and was 7/1 last time.

and as you say, a filly like the :1: may actually be in the lead today or contesting the pace.

Race doesn't jump out to me, but I agree with your points.

[Robert Fischer]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1548300685468348419

:ThmbUp: Don't see him as vulnerable. It's possible will be somewhat underlayed.

Have a hard time beating top connections in favorable races even when I see some fatal flaw, and I don't see any of that here. Just a bit of a low price.

:1:Disco Pharoah is interesting to me to round out an ex/tri/su, but I will pass this race.


- I'm not a Yoda fan :). He's back on Lasix, however. (and this is a race for those of you who factor things like 'L' to go through the Form, and check various races with w/out L).

- Disco Pharoah was 8/5 vs. some of these last time. He broke mid-pack and was never comfortable. He finally got in stride top of the stretch, but although he was more visually appealing than the others, there was no flow. Stage Left made a 'belated surge' maybe slightly against the grain while up the rail, but at that point Disco had already lost exacta contention, and was finishing the race up. Dylan Davis has been working hard lately. This is the kind of mount where Handal/Davis can get a piece of the vertical exotics Tri/Su/Ex...

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

:3: Bleecker Street lose in the G1 Diana today?

Bettors were against her in the G1 New York last out, taking her stablemate :4: Rougir. She resoundingly responded and delivered the goods that day keeping her 7 for 7 undefeated career rolling thus far.

Only 5 rivals, but it is a deep and tough field. Another stablemate in the :1: Technical Analysis is 2 for 2 at Toga.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Ticket Number:
Date:
Graded Date:
Description:
Status
Amount
Type:
To win
TICKET WAGER
DETAILS
Transaction Receipt

07/15/2022
07/15/2022
Saratoga - Race #6 $ 0.5 Pick 5 (2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11 / 2, 3, 4, 5,
6, 9 / 11 / 7, 8, 10 / 2, 3, 9)
Racebook
Won
$162.00
$9,833.75

Here's a winning ticket...good luck to all...

Absolutely fantastic. Expert handicapping. :ThmbUp:

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1548394651559702529

[Boomer]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1548394651559702529


Thats is harness handicapping which works quite well when you can find the lone speed and the pocket sitter. Nice job


The old line up!

[1st time lasix]

At Spa Sunday… race 4 ml favorite Two Thirty Five is possibly vulnerable. Six year old comIng off hard fought win….which was all time Beyer top in this colt’s 46th race Noticed that previous two was running with Crypto Cash who recently flopped as odds-on chalk at lower level Jockey opts to ride another entry. Needs perfect trip to come from behind. Only Spa appearance was below par without a local published work. Not my cup of tea. Not using. Will see.

[Robert Fischer]

At Spa Sunday… race 4 ml favorite Two Thirty Five is possibly vulnerable. Six year old comIng off hard fought win….which was all time Beyer top in this colt’s 46th race Noticed that previous two was running with Crypto Cash who recently flopped as odds-on chalk at lower level Jockey opts to ride another entry. Needs perfect trip to come from behind. Only Spa appearance was below par without a local published work. Not my cup of tea. Not using. Will see.
:ThmbUp:
that race is tough for me. I don't have a great read of it, and what I do think I see looks highly competitive.

[burnsy]

:3: Bleecker Street lose in the G1 Diana today?

Bettors were against her in the G1 New York last out, taking her stablemate :4: Rougir. She resoundingly responded and delivered the goods that day keeping her 7 for 7 undefeated career rolling thus far.

Only 5 rivals, but it is a deep and tough field. Another stablemate in the :1: Technical Analysis is 2 for 2 at Toga.

Good call. This was a small but very potent, Saratoga class race. My first thought was Bleeker Street is not facing Fluffy Socks and Family Way here. Some of these have run in top company around the world and the one horse already has a Lake Placid and Lake George win. When it goes to 4/5 or lower it’s really hard to like alone. It still horse race and these were heavies. When everyone hollers “single “ or “free square”…… you really better look deeper. Of course, I didn’t catch In Italian but the fave was far from what everyone described her as. This was way more a Grade One race than the New York was. Even with just 6 horses.

[Robert Fischer]

nice job Asaro and First Juice on Sat.

need some more today ! ;)


At Spa Sunday… race 4 ml favorite Two Thirty Five is possibly vulnerable. Six year old comIng off hard fought win….which was all time Beyer top in this colt’s 46th race Noticed that previous two was running with Crypto Cash who recently flopped as odds-on chalk at lower level Jockey opts to ride another entry. Needs perfect trip to come from behind. Only Spa appearance was below par without a local published work. Not my cup of tea. Not using. Will see.



:ThmbUp:
that race is tough for me. I don't have a great read of it, and what I do think I see looks highly competitive.

:1: War Stopper - numbers fit. Falcone is established enough that I can't say he's 'trying to prove' or 'has a chip on his shoulder', but this is a private purchase or transfer from Pletcher for him to run in Saratoga.

:2: Locally Owned - 10/1 horse with a record of bounce-back big performances, running for a dangerous owner.

:3:Indimaaj - potential speed for Diodoro.

:4: Truculent - seems a notch below these but has kept over-achieving. Now he's claimed by Maker/Paradise and had 43 days w/ new outfit. Apprehension of improved fitness/form off claim.

:5:Zoomer - class and figures fit fine, coming off some difficult setups in class and flow.

:6: Two Thirty Five - 2 camps - Either a bed/breakfast and a picnic table in Saratoga or a Canoe trip Southern Appalachia. No :eek: 2 camps his last performance/fig was an abberation or legit. Good setup, a couple/few rival favs non factor.

:7: Crafty Daddy - Not a well known claiming trainer of name, but this horse was signficantly favored over Truculent last time as well as claimed for this meet.


I'll very likely pass. Mildly tempted to use the :2: in a couple flyer type wagers, if :2: Locally Owned is the 6th or 7th choice but it's not like I'm seeing legit running to bet back.

[Andy Asaro]

nice job Asaro and First Juice on Sat.

need some more today ! ;)








:1: War Stopper - numbers fit. Falcone is established enough that I can't say he's 'trying to prove' or 'has a chip on his shoulder', but this is a private purchase or transfer from Pletcher for him to run in Saratoga.

:2: Locally Owned - 10/1 horse with a record of bounce-back big performances, running for a dangerous owner.

:3:Indimaaj - potential speed for Diodoro.

:4: Truculent - seems a notch below these but has kept over-achieving. Now he's claimed by Maker/Paradise and had 43 days w/ new outfit. Apprehension of improved fitness/form off claim.

:5:Zoomer - class and figures fit fine, coming off some difficult setups in class and flow.

:6: Two Thirty Five - 2 camps - Either a bed/breakfast and a picnic table in Saratoga or a Canoe trip Southern Appalachia. No :eek: 2 camps his last performance/fig was an abberation or legit. Good setup, a couple/few rival favs non factor.

:7: Crafty Daddy - Not a well known claiming trainer of name, but this horse was signficantly favored over Truculent last time as well as claimed for this meet.


I'll very likely pass. Mildly tempted to use the :2: in a couple flyer type wagers, if :2: Locally Owned is the 6th or 7th choice but it's not like I'm seeing legit running to bet back.

The thread is helping me focus. And the interaction is great. Right on. :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

The thread is helping me focus. And the interaction is great. Right on. :ThmbUp:

sometimes when you tweet or type a play, it goes through some extra step/filter.

can be a good thing

[Andy Asaro]

The favorite in this race looks good. I just think that the tables will be turned today based on my reasoning here. Didn't see a lot of favs to toss today. GL


https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1548718629482401792

[Robert Fischer]

The favorite in this race looks good. I just think that the tables will be turned today based on my reasoning here. Didn't see a lot of favs to toss today. GL


https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1548718629482401792
That was a good pick.

Asymmetric was cold on the board.

It's possible that the Pick-3 just bet the lesser :4: Noballs because of Irad. If so that's a lot of silly money to be like 40% lower P3 Will-Pay than the p3 of the better :7:

Then, Ward made that unexpected error (or Jamie Spencer had a rogue brainfart) of rating and not sending.

change of tactics, and speed finished 3rd, 2nd.

Those, you just shake off and move forward.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1549530692144402432

[1st time lasix]

Spa Thursday…. 7th race the 2 horse from Chad’s barn is 5/2 ML….5 yr old going short on turf will certainly take money. The 1 5 and 7 will likely be “sent” in this race. The 3 and 6 show better closing pace figs Irad not riding this time -although Franco is fine. May be vulnerable. Not using in horizontals. Will see.

[Andy Asaro]

https://www.capitalotbhandicapping.com/index.php/cox-selections/item/4783-kevin-cox-saratoga-racecourse



Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #3 Barzini Race 10 - #5 Margaret Burbidge

[Parkview_Pirate]

The opening day card at Del Mar tomorrow looks fabulous. Glad to see it - I think I've only played So Cal twice this year. 4 PM CDT start too - I like that too.

Outside of Sar and Dmr, the Haskell may have a vulnerable favorite on Saturday, as Derby runners Cyberknife, Taiba (now trained officially again by Baffert), and White Abarrio try to beat Jack Christopher.

Just not sure who to bet against, yet.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/DawnLupul/status/1550104549075128320

[1st time lasix]

I have two potential vulnerable heavily bet chalks at Spa on Friday. Both trained by Todd.Pletcher. I understand how strong he is upstate- but not all win I suspect both will take serious money. Race 5 - the 8 horse owned by Repole. Blinkers off dropping in class after finishing 2nd at Monmouth at odds on. Will have to work out a trip coming from behind Two previous races at Spa were poor. Race 10… expensive NY filly facing winners for first time I see she has never passed a horse and last race was against smallish field where she beat a modestly bred first timer. Lofty Beyer with those connections suggests she will take a ton of action Friday in big field where four others may “send”. She will have to pass this time. Not the strongest bunch however. Will see. I am now 4 for 4 posting vulnerable favorites here that have disappointed. Good luck.

[ranchwest]

That was a good pick.

Asymmetric was cold on the board.

It's possible that the Pick-3 just bet the lesser :4: Noballs because of Irad. If so that's a lot of silly money to be like 40% lower P3 Will-Pay than the p3 of the better :7:

Then, Ward made that unexpected error (or Jamie Spencer had a rogue brainfart) of rating and not sending.

change of tactics, and speed finished 3rd, 2nd.

Those, you just shake off and move forward.

I think the :7: was blinkers off, so I'd deduce that it was Ward who elected to take back.

[pic6vic]

DMR 5TH #9 smokin cheena 5/2

Both of her races the winners came back to win a stake. should be well bet vs CAL BREDS, however the outside pot#9 for babies has to be trouble. Some decent FTS. Not picking a winner, but # 4 DANZING CAT is my choice.

GOOD LUCK

[Andy Asaro]

https://www.capitalotbhandicapping.com/index.php/cox-selections/item/4784-kevin-cox-saratoga-racecourse

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #1 Indemnify

[Andy Asaro]

https://www.capitalotbhandicapping.com/index.php/cox-selections/item/4785-kevin-cox-saratoga-racecourse


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 11 - #8 Catch That Party

[Robert Fischer]

I think the :7: was blinkers off, so I'd deduce that it was Ward who elected to take back.

yea, missed talking horses that day, but Twitter was later abuzz with stuff bettors complaining and others saying that it was well known that Ward would be rating his speed today.
I guess I just missed that part.

didn't bet the race at all. Would have been discouraged (not encouraged) seeing the will-pays project higher odds. And upset and out of the loop as far as the tactic change.

Looked like the winner ran well enough to beat any version easily.

[pic6vic]

DMR 4TH #11 HALOSNHEAVEN

5/2 ML Baffert trains, also trained dam who ran 16 times, 10 wins 5 seconds. Should take money, but the 10 post going 5F is not the place to be. Think this one gets bet. Play against

[Sheffwed]

many of the favorites look live at the Spa today

the one I wonder about is Stage Raider in the 9th

he has two wins to date - his maiden in April 2021 at Keeneland was solid, and his only allowance win in May 2021 where he was 1-9 against 4 others who were a pretty weak bunch

then he's off for almost a year, and he's a favorite (in effect) three times this year, each time running second, and he's not as strong a closer on paper than some of the others and he hasn't run for almost two months

[pic6vic]

9TH DMR

#12 SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT

6/5 ML, sure looks good on paper. However, the post is a big detriment. Other speed may cause him to be wide going into first turn, even if he gets the lead he will have to work. So far on turf all the winners have saved ground for most of the race. I expect him to be wide the whole trip. Even if he gets the lead, speed has not been good. HUGE PLAY AGAINST

[Andy Asaro]

2nd at Del Mar the #2 is the ML fav at 9-2. There's other pace in the race. Virat, Peso, and Straight No Chaser (has super workout comments)

3rd at Del Mar Loud Mouth at 3-1 is a toss. Looks like he's headed the wrong way and there's other early speed in the race.

[pic6vic]

5th DMR
#10 Jonny Podres post will hurt since he has no speed, but plenty of speed to set up his close. However, I don't see him getting anything but a wide trip. Play against

[pic6vic]

I was wrong easy win. First runner to go wide and win

[Andy Asaro]

https://www.capitalotbhandicapping.com/index.php/cox-selections/item/4791-kevin-cox-saratoga-racecourse

We start out Week 3 with a flat bet profit for the meet, and want to let y'all know that we'll be going over today's card with Anthony Mormino on the Capital OTB channel ( 1250 ) & livestream from 9:00 A.M. to 10 A.M., followed by our regular 15+ minute spot on the 10:00 A.M. show.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

[Andy Asaro]

https://www.capitalotbhandicapping.com/index.php/cox-selections/item/4792-kevin-cox-saratoga-racecourse

Those who caught us on 'Handicapper's Report' & 'America's Day at the Races' yesterday (where we gave out our top 3 for each race as well as having professed our love for horizontals), were rewarded with: A $4,360 Rolling Pk. 5, a $1,630 Rolling Pk.4, 5 Rolling Pk.3's of $295, $202, $133, $463 & $49, six Rolling Doubles of $21, $91, $90, $12, $212 & $19 !! And not that anyone's betting it ( to the tune of $729 ), but a $14,220 Rolling Pick Six as well.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s):None

[Andy Asaro]

4th Del Mar IMO the #8 Maven is vulnerable for Wesley Ward at 3-1 There is other pace in the race and this one appears to be heading the wrong way


GL

[Andy Asaro]

https://www.capitalotbhandicapping.com/index.php/cox-selections/item/4796-kevin-cox-saratoga-racecourse

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #6 Bourbon Resolve

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1553325506182860800

[Andy Asaro]

OK I'll make a fool of myself and say Jackies Warrior is vulnerable at 1-5. Last two races ran slow first quarters on speed favoring surfaces. Other pace in race. GL